农业转移人口市民化意味着农村劳动力向城镇转移，这既是畅通城乡要素流动、实现高质量发展的内在 要求，也是统筹推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴的重要内容。我国农业转移人口数量众多、规模庞大。 据统计，截至2024年底我国有近3亿农民工，比上年增加220万人。推动农业转移人口市民化，能够为进 一步拓展巨大消费市场规模提供前提条件，有助于释放巨大内需潜力，为以高质量发展全面推进中国式 现代化提供强劲动力和重要支撑。同时，随着大量农业转移人口进入城镇，新增的社会服务需求将催生 一系列投资机会和就业机会，带动基础设施和公共服务快速发展，不仅有利于提升城镇综合承载能力， 也能够为新型城镇化提供强劲发展动力。更为重要的是，科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化，能够让农 业转移人口平等地获得城镇基本公共服务，调动和发挥好人的积极性主动性创造性，促进全体人民共享 现代化发展成果。 党的二十届四中全会《建议》提出："深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化。科学有序推进农业转移人口市 民化，推行由常住地登记户口提供基本公共服务制度。"城镇化的基本趋势是农村富余劳动力和农村人 口向城镇转移，解决好人的问题是推进新型城镇化的关键。改革开放以来，我国经历了世 ...

Core Insights - China's urbanization process is entering a phase of speed adjustment and quality improvement, with a current urbanization rate of 67% for the resident population, indicating a gap of nearly 18 percentage points between the resident and registered population urbanization rates [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a people-centered new urbanization approach, promoting livable and workable rural areas, and addressing the challenges of urbanization [1][2] Urbanization Rate and Trends - The urbanization rate is expected to grow at an average of 0.7 percentage points annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, reaching 71.5% by 2030, 74.6% by 2035, and nearly 80% by 2050 [2][20] - The gap between the registered and resident population urbanization rates has fluctuated, with a decrease from 18.5 percentage points in 2020 to 17.86 percentage points in 2023 [5][6] Agricultural Population Urbanization - The essence of urbanizing the agricultural population is about co-construction and sharing, with a focus on equalizing basic public services [2][7] - Key strategies include deepening the household registration system reform and decoupling urban welfare from the household registration system to ensure equal access to public services for the agricultural population [2][8] Urban Development Polarization - The current urban structure shows a polarization trend, with super-large and large cities expanding excessively while small cities and towns face slow growth or decline [11][12] - From 2010 to 2023, the number of super-large and large cities increased from 8 to 23, while the number of small cities decreased from 489 to 469 [12] County-Level Development - The development of counties is crucial for attracting and accommodating the agricultural population, with a focus on enhancing industrial support and improving infrastructure and public services [17][18] - The trend of labor migration is shifting towards local and nearby areas, with counties becoming important hubs for absorbing rural labor [17][18] Resource Allocation and Functionality - There is a need to optimize resource allocation and clarify functional positioning for different counties to avoid homogenized competition and enhance overall development efficiency [18][19] - The "one county, one industry" model aims to define clear industrial directions for each county, promoting differentiated development [18][19]

Core Insights - China's urbanization rate has reached 67%, indicating a shift towards the later stages of urban development, with a trend of slowing urbanization growth [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw an average urbanization growth rate drop to 0.78 percentage points due to the pandemic, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 0.7 percentage points, reaching an estimated 71.5% by 2030 [2][3] Urbanization Trends - Historical average annual urbanization rate increases were: 1.44 percentage points during the "9th Five-Year Plan," 1.35 during the "10th," 1.39 during the "11th," 1.48 during the "12th," and 1.31 during the "13th" [2] - The transition from rapid growth to stable development in urbanization is a key focus for the new period, as highlighted in the recent Central Urban Work Conference [2] Quality and Speed of Urbanization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes balancing speed and quality in urbanization, with a focus on improving urbanization quality and synchronizing urbanization with citizenization [3][4] Rural-Urban Integration - The integration of rural and urban areas is crucial, with county-level cities becoming key hubs for absorbing rural labor migration [7][9] - The quality of urbanization for agricultural migrants needs improvement, with a focus on providing basic public services based on registered residence [4][6] Structural Optimization - The current urban structure is characterized by a polarization between mega-cities and smaller towns, necessitating a re-evaluation of urban scale and structure [11][12] - From 2010 to 2023, the number of mega-cities increased from 8 to 23, while small cities decreased from 489 to 469, indicating a need for coordinated development [11] High-Quality Urban Development - The shift towards high-quality urban development is a priority, focusing on enhancing urban characteristics, safety, and development atmosphere [13][14] - Urban renewal is identified as a critical strategy for achieving high-quality urban development, emphasizing the need for government support to attract investment and stimulate demand [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of China's urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing the need to align with the new goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and to focus on quality improvement and efficiency in urban development [1][4]. Group 1: Urbanization Development Strategies - The current phase of urbanization should be understood within the context of China's modernization and global changes, aiming to meet the growing needs of the population [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period should focus on the deep integration of urban areas across seven dimensions: regional, urban-rural, industrial, digital, green, cultural, and safety [1]. - Urbanization is crucial for achieving economic and social development goals, serving as both a primary content and an important support for building a modern socialist society [2]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas for Urbanization - Emphasis on collaborative efforts to optimize urban clusters and metropolitan areas, ensuring infrastructure and public services are interconnected while allowing for distinctive local developments [2][3]. - High-quality urban development should be assessed through three dimensions: development capacity, livability, and safety, with a focus on creating a unique industrial structure and a responsive safety management system [2]. - Promoting rural-urban integration through reforms that facilitate the movement of farmers to cities and the flow of urban resources to rural areas is essential for modernizing agriculture and rural areas [3]. Group 3: Government Role and Challenges - The implementation of new urbanization should stimulate domestic demand by integrating rural populations into the modern economy, with a focus on local government incentives and accountability [3]. - Addressing the debt issues faced by local governments is critical to ensure continued investment in urbanization, household registration reform, and public services [3]. - The predicted urbanization speed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to remain around 0.7 percentage points, with a primary focus on improving the quality of urbanization [4].

责任编辑：杨赐 他建议，研究设置市民化率这样一个指标，在就业地享受义务教育、医疗保障、社会保障、住房保障的 农业转移人口就是市民化的人口，而不要再去考虑户籍究竟在哪里，并要求所有的城市都要设置这样一 个指标，争取到基本实现现代化的时候，基本解决3亿人融入城市的问题。 11月14日消息，在今天举行的第十六届财新峰会上，关于"十五五"新规划、新蓝图，第十三届全国政协 常委、经济委员会副主任杨伟民表示，要提高农业转移人口的市民化，常年在城市就业和进入但没有融 入城市的3亿农业转移人口，是形成消费拉动发展模式最有潜力的一个大群体。推进以人为本的城镇 化，要让农业产业人口融入城市，享受就业地常住地的公共服务。 ...

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for an economic development model driven by domestic demand and consumption, especially in light of increasing uncertainties in the international environment [1][2] - The target for GDP growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is set at an average of 4.17%, with a projected GDP total of 175 trillion yuan by 2030, requiring an increase in total supply and demand by approximately 35 trillion yuan over the next five years [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The reliance on external demand for economic growth is expected to decline, making it essential to focus on expanding resident consumption to maintain reasonable economic growth [1][2] - Capital formation is anticipated to contribute more to economic growth, but it is unlikely to return to peak levels seen in the past [2] Group 2: Strategies for Expanding Consumption - A shift in development perspective is necessary, where local governments should prioritize understanding and meeting consumer demand rather than solely focusing on investment projects [2][3] - Specific targets should be set in the "15th Five-Year Plan" to improve indicators such as the resident consumption rate and the proportion of disposable income in national income [2] Group 3: Income Distribution and Urbanization - Improving the income distribution system is crucial for balancing supply and demand, with a focus on increasing the income of all citizens through actionable policies [3] - Supporting the urbanization of the nearly 300 million agricultural migrant workers is vital for creating a consumption-driven development model, with recommendations for cities to adopt metrics for integrating these populations into urban life [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant achievements in urban construction and regional development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an urbanization rate projected to reach 67% by the end of 2024, indicating that 940 million people will live in cities and towns [1] - The transition from rapid urbanization to stable development is highlighted, emphasizing a shift from large-scale expansion to improving existing urban quality and efficiency [1][6] - The primary task of the new urbanization strategy is to promote the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, focusing on equal access to public services rather than merely resolving household registration issues [8][9] Urbanization and Regional Development - Urbanization is moving from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with a focus on enhancing the quality of urbanization [6][7] - The core of regional coordinated development remains consistent, aiming to reduce disparities in GDP, living standards, and public services across regions [6][7] - The new urbanization strategy emphasizes the importance of improving the quality of urbanization and ensuring that the agricultural transfer population can integrate into urban life [8][9] Urban Agglomeration and City Group Development - The size of urban agglomerations and city groups should be determined by the connections between cities and their radiation capabilities, rather than aiming for larger sizes [2][13] - The implementation of approved urban agglomeration plans is crucial, with a focus on establishing regional cooperation mechanisms [2][13] - The development of urban agglomerations and city groups should promote coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities, creating a rational urban and spatial system [14] Challenges in Agricultural Population Urbanization - The urbanization of the agricultural transfer population faces challenges, particularly in accessing equal public services and social welfare [8][9] - The misconception that household registration is directly tied to public service provision has led to difficulties for many agricultural workers in urban areas [9] - The focus should shift from household registration rates to the urbanization rate of the resident population, emphasizing the need for equal public service provision regardless of registration status [9] Recommendations for Future Development - To address the challenges of urbanization, it is essential to break down administrative barriers and enhance transportation networks connecting core cities with surrounding areas [12][13] - The planning of urban agglomerations should prioritize optimizing spatial layouts and defining the functional roles of different cities to avoid excessive competition [15] - The government and market must collaborate to establish regional cooperation mechanisms for effective urban agglomeration development [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on improving the quality of urbanization and the integration of agricultural transfer populations into cities as a key task for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][6][8]. Urbanization and Development - By the end of 2024, China's urbanization rate is expected to reach 67%, indicating that 940 million people will live in urban areas, with a steady improvement in urban carrying capacity [1]. - The shift in urban development is moving from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing urban quality and efficiency [1][6]. Agricultural Transfer Population - The primary task of the new urbanization strategy is to promote the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations, focusing on equal access to public services rather than merely resolving household registration issues [5][9]. - Current challenges include the disparity in public services and social welfare for agricultural transfer populations, leading to difficulties in their integration into urban life [8][9]. Urban Agglomeration and City Group Development - The size of urban agglomerations and city groups should be determined by the connections between cities and their radiation capabilities, rather than aiming for larger sizes [2][14]. - The implementation of approved urban agglomeration plans is crucial, with an emphasis on establishing regional cooperation mechanisms [2][16]. Regional Coordination and Quality Development - The core of regional coordinated development remains consistent, focusing on reducing disparities in GDP, living standards, and public services across regions [6][7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will continue to prioritize high-quality regional development through strategies like urbanization and regional major strategies [6][7]. Urban Structure and Function - The article discusses the need for a balanced development structure among large, medium, and small cities, addressing the "core siphon" effect where large cities attract resources at the expense of surrounding areas [12][13]. - A focus on optimizing spatial layouts and defining the functional roles of different cities is essential for promoting coordinated development [16][17]. Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Urban renewal is highlighted as a critical aspect of improving urban quality, with plans for upgrading old infrastructure and enhancing living conditions [17][18]. - The article suggests that urban renewal should be guided by planning and address funding challenges to ensure successful implementation [18].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is set to review the suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, aiming to outline the blueprint for China's development over the next five years, with a focus on urbanization and regional development [1] Urbanization and Regional Development - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, significant achievements were made in urban construction and regional development, with the urbanization rate expected to reach 67% by the end of 2024, translating to approximately 940 million people living in urban areas [1] - The current phase of urbanization is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality improvement over quantity expansion [1][3] Key Focus Areas for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary task of the new urbanization strategy is to promote the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, focusing on equal access to public services rather than merely resolving household registration issues [3][7] - The development of metropolitan areas and urban clusters should be based on the connections between cities and their radiating capabilities, with an emphasis on implementing approved metropolitan area plans [3][9] Regional Coordination and Development Strategies - The core of regional coordination development remains consistent, focusing on reducing disparities in GDP per capita, living standards, and public services across regions [3][4] - The new urbanization strategy emphasizes improving the quality of urbanization and enhancing the living conditions of the agricultural transfer population, moving towards a more human-centered approach [4][5] Challenges in Urbanization - The agricultural transfer population faces significant barriers to full integration into urban life, particularly in accessing education, social security, and housing, leading to a situation where it is easier to move to cities than to fully integrate [5][7] - The misconception that household registration is the primary issue in urbanization has led to challenges in providing adequate public services to the agricultural transfer population [6][7] Urban Development Trends - The trend of increasing population movement from rural to urban areas is shifting towards inter-city migration, which should be addressed within the framework of the main functional area strategy rather than the new urbanization strategy [5][8] - The phenomenon of large cities growing larger creates pressure on urban management and exacerbates disparities with surrounding smaller cities, necessitating a shift from a siphoning effect to a radiating effect [8][9] Recommendations for Future Development - To promote coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities, it is essential to enhance transportation networks and establish regional cooperation mechanisms [9][10] - The government and market must collaborate to address the practical issues of metropolitan area planning, including funding and implementation [9][11] Land System Reform - The land system reform during the 14th Five-Year Plan has made progress, particularly in the area of rural land rights, but challenges remain in the pricing and transfer of land use rights [12][13] - Future reforms should focus on the integration of land use rights and the promotion of urban-rural integration, particularly in small towns [14][15] Urban Renewal Initiatives - The focus for urban development is shifting towards high-quality urban renewal, which includes improving living conditions and addressing infrastructure issues [16] - Key actions for urban renewal in the 15th Five-Year Plan should include developing specific urban renewal plans and addressing funding challenges [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have issued opinions on promoting high-quality urban development, emphasizing the enhancement of the capacity of small and medium-sized cities and county towns [1] Group 1: Urban Development Strategies - The document advocates for the dynamic optimization of infrastructure layout and public service supply in small and medium-sized cities based on changes in resident population trends [1] - It calls for a classified approach to urbanization construction, with a focus on counties as important carriers, and encourages the vigorous development of county economies [1] - There is a recommendation to develop small towns according to local conditions and to adjust the economic and social management authority of rapidly growing county-level cities and large towns [1] Group 2: Population and Resource Management - The opinions support the transformation and development of cities experiencing continuous population outflow and resource-based cities [1] - It emphasizes the need for border towns to enhance their capabilities in stabilizing borders, population aggregation, and ensuring safety [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Public Services - The document highlights the importance of coordinated planning for urban and rural infrastructure and public service systems to promote urban-rural integration [1] - It also stresses the ongoing promotion of the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population [1]