农产品日报 | 2026-01-27 备货需求逐步释放，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场分析 豆粕库存持续消耗，但仍明显高于历史同期，大豆库存同样维持高位。受到美豆提振的影响，国内豆粕价格短期 同步偏强运行，但巴西新季丰产压力仍存，随着未来新季大豆上市供应压力逐步释放，预计豆粕价格仍将偏弱运 行。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美收获情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2769元/吨，较前日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.65%；菜粕2605合约2269元/吨，较前 日变动+34元/吨，幅度+1.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M05+401，较前日变动-28；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+301，较前日变动-18； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M05+311，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2480元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差RM05+211，较前日变动+6。 近期市场资讯，1月23日，美国农业部公布的出口销售报告 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米主力 | | 玉米 | 2603 合约减仓调整，玉米期价先跌后涨，日线收带长下影线的 | 震荡偏弱 | | 小阳线。受玉米近月合约期价下跌影响，玉米远期 | | | 2605、2607 合约跟随调整。 | | | 目前东北玉米价格暂以稳定为主，有存货贸易商随行出货，基层目前也以随行出 | | | | | | 货为主，低价售粮意向暂显一般。销区市场玉米价格稳中偏强运行，受北方降雪 | | | | | | 影响，贸易商到货成本支撑下报价坚挺。下游目前备货谨慎为主，维持安全头寸 | | | | | | 滚动补库，市场未出现集中补库现象。技术上，玉米市场的近期表现主要受到周 | | | | | | 边商品及情绪的影响。玉米 | | | 5 月合约期价先弱后强，产区潮粮收购价格上涨，5 | | | 月合约期价下行，基差走强。 | | | | | | 周二，CBOT 大豆小幅下跌，结束此前三连涨，投资者对美欧紧张关系保持警惕， 同时巴西产量创纪 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price is expected to be strong in the future due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and potential export tariff hikes in Indonesia [1][2]. - The cotton price adjustment space is limited as the expected reduction in planting area strengthens supply contraction expectations and downstream demand is resilient [1][5]. - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is rising steadily. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December, and concerns about Indonesian supply are rising. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 8600 - 8620 [2]. Two - Meal (Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal) - The rapeseed meal main 2605 contract continues to fall due to possible improvement in China - Canada economic and trade relations and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short on resistance levels. The soybean meal is supported by strong spot prices and rigid demand from breeding enterprises, and the 2605 contract's market may fluctuate [3]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract is still adjusting to digest long - profit taking pressure. The expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang strengthens supply contraction, and downstream demand is strong. The main trend of the upward movement remains unchanged. The strategy is to go long after the price stabilizes on dips [5]. Live Pigs - The live pig main 2603 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner. The出栏 pressure in January has decreased, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is in an upward trend. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 11715 - 11750 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner, supported by the expected consumption recovery at the end of the year. Sugar production in Guangxi has decreased year - on - year, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions [10]. Eggs - The egg main 2603 contract is rising steadily, boosted by the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The production capacity is gradually decreasing, and market trading is active. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 3010 - 3030 [11][13].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices may rise again due to downstream seasonal restocking after New Year's Day, and long - term price trends depend on import and domestic auction policies. Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the near future, and long - term prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - Egg prices could benefit in the second quarter if there is a concentrated culling of hens before Laba Festival. The key driver is the culling rhythm [6] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the medium - term due to consumer competition [9] - Short - term pig market sentiment is weak, and stage supply - demand mismatches may still exist in January. Long - term expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] - Short - term sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices, and may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 20 - unit change in蛇口 price, a - 18 change in basis, and a 20 change in trade profit. Starch basis decreased by 8, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are affected by policy and supply, with strong basis and potential for price increase due to downstream restocking. Starch prices are weak due to slow de - stocking, but may strengthen slightly later [3] - Long - term: Corn prices depend on import and auction policies, and starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 4: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, egg prices in some regions increased, with a - 16 change in basis, and slight changes in substitute prices [5] Market Analysis - The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of hens. Concentrated culling before Laba Festival may benefit second - quarter prices [6] Group 5: Apples Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, apple spot prices remained stable, basis changed, and inventory decreased slightly [8][9] Market Analysis - Short - term: The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere, but prices are firm, and the futures market may maintain high - level oscillations [9] - Medium - term: The market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to consumer competition [9] Group 6: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, with a - 35 change in basis [9] Market Analysis - Short - term: Market sentiment is weak after New Year's Day, but there may be supply - demand mismatches in January [9] - Long - term: Expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] Group 7: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, sugar spot prices changed slightly, basis increased by 2, import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10] Market Analysis - Short - term: Sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices [10] - Long - term: Prices may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] Group 8: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, cotton prices changed, import profit and other indicators also changed [10] Market Analysis - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [6] 2. Core Views - Cotton: 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease with a slight increase in ending stocks; US cotton has inventory pressure in the short - term, but is in a low - valuation range in the long - term; domestic cotton production increases, demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward [2] - Sugar: 25/26 global sugar production is abundant with an excess situation; short - term decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted; long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic; domestic sugar supply pressure remains, and short - and medium - term prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, European demand improves, domestic demand is insufficient but shows marginal improvement; short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,035 yuan/ton yesterday, up 180 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous day; 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton; as of January 3, 2025/26 Brazilian cotton planting was 31.2% complete, up 6.1 percentage points from the previous period and 0.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated upward yesterday; globally, 25/26 cotton production and demand both decreased, and US cotton inventory pressure increased. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly, sales progress accelerated, demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bullish. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there is a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward, but short - term high - level callback risks should be watched out for [2] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,281 yuan/ton yesterday, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous day; Guangxi Nanning sugar spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar and molasses in December, a 2.8% increase from December 2024 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated and closed higher yesterday; globally, 25/26 sugar production is abundant with an excess situation. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and supply pressure remains [3] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward, and short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,596 yuan/ton yesterday, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous day; Shandong Chilean silver star softwood pulp spot price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import wood pulp spot market was mainly strong with individual fluctuations [4] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices were narrowly sorted yesterday. Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European demand continues to improve, while domestic demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and downstream demand is expected to increase marginally [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand may show a mild recovery. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the agriculture sector mainly fluctuated. Different agricultural products showed various trends, including price adjustments, low - level fluctuations, and price increases. Overall, the market was affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and macro - environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are undergoing corrective consolidation. Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats futures, with weak fundamental data. The macro - environment and industrial factors have a negative impact on vegetable oil prices. Overall, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider staged buying hedging after excessive declines [4] - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues have a weakening impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects vegetable oil prices negatively. South American soybean production is expected to be high, and domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient. The palm oil production area is in the off - season, but export demand is weak. Overseas rapeseed production is high, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The expectation of a good harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are fluctuating at a low level. The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Logic**: Internationally, South American weather is normal, and the market expects a good harvest of South American soybeans. US soybean exports face competition from South American soybeans. Domestically, before the festival, supply and demand are both weak. Oil mills' inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is not strong [5] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Purchase and sales are gradually recovering, and prices are fluctuating within a range. The overall price is under pressure but also has support, and it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a possible first - decline - then - rise trend [7][9][10] - **Logic**: Affected by the corn auction, the price once rose, but the overall fundamentals have no major contradictions. The launch of policy - based grain sources has a limited negative impact. In different regions, the supply and demand situations vary, and downstream demand and inventory also affect the price [9] 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: After the holiday, the demand drive weakens, and the futures price declines. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and in the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken [10][11] - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand after the New Year's Day holiday weakens. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, it can be considered bullish [13][14] - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment of commodities, natural rubber has a strong performance. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but the demand side is relatively weak after the price increase [14] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains a fluctuating trend. In the short - term, there is pressure, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][16] - **Logic**: The expectation of marginal improvement in butadiene fundamentals has become a market consensus. Although the current inventory is increasing, the market expects good prospects, and the downstream industry's demand is also rising [16] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16][18] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the new cotton is in the peak listing period, but the inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the apparent demand is increasing. Policy - wise, there is an expectation of a reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which drives the price up [16][18] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly and are still under pressure in the medium - term. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [18] - **Logic**: Globally and domestically, the sugar supply is increasing. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing, Thailand's production is delayed, and India's production is growing. In China, the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase [18] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market is dominated by funds and the macro - environment, and pulp futures fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [19] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include rising prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations of coniferous pulp mills, and high downstream paper production. Negative factors include difficulties in cost transfer of downstream paper and seasonal decline in demand [19] 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [20][21] - **Logic**: The market trend of double - glue paper has changed from falling to rising. The inventory pressure of paper mills has been relieved, and the supply is expected to be stable. Paper mills' price - increase plans may support the price in the short - term [21] 3.11 Logs - **View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate narrowly. From January to February, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [22] - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market has no obvious upward or downward drive. The supply pressure will be relieved in January and February, and the futures price has support at a certain range. The 03 contract has certain game characteristics [22] 3.12 Commodity Index - On January 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2345.23, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2684.12, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2272.17, up 0.21%. The agricultural product index on January 5, 2026, was 932.85, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.05%, a 1 - month increase of 0.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [182][184]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are currently weak due to the directional auction policy, but may rise after New Year's Day due to downstream seasonal restocking. In the medium to long term, focus on import and domestic auction policies [5] - Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly after New Year's Day supported by year - end stocking. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key [5] - Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and in the long term, if the global sugar surplus increases, prices may fall to the out - of - quota import cost [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve next year due to factors like expanding textile production, good profits and favorable tariff policies [10] - For eggs, the key is the egg - laying hen culling rhythm. Accelerated culling may benefit second - quarter egg prices [16] - Apple prices show a pattern of good quality goods being stable and lower - quality goods weakening. The market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] - Pig prices are rising due to factors such as supply reduction by farmers, second - round fattening, and New Year's Day stocking. Pay attention to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19] Group 3: Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while in other regions, there were changes such as a 30 increase in Jinzhou and a 6 decrease in Weifang. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [4] - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are affected by the auction policy and downstream restocking. Starch prices are affected by downstream restocking enthusiasm and raw material costs [5] Group 4: Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 26, 2025, sugar prices in Liuzhou, Nanning and Kunming showed an upward trend, and the basis and import profit also changed [6] - **Analysis**: Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and long - term prices depend on the global sugar supply situation [7] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, cotton price at 3128 index changed from 14895 to 15240, and other related data such as import profit and spinning profit also had fluctuations [20] - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long - term investment [10] Group 6: Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, egg prices in different production areas changed, and the basis decreased by 105.00 [15] - **Analysis**: The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of egg - laying hens [16] Group 7: Apples - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00, and the basis for different months changed [18] - **Analysis**: The apple market is currently in a weak state with slow inventory removal, and the price pattern is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] Group 8: Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, pig prices in different production areas increased significantly, and the basis also increased [19] - **Analysis**: Pig prices are rising due to supply and demand factors, and attention should be paid to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean and Meal**: CBOT soybeans declined slightly on Tuesday, pressured by slow sales in the US and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, supported by costs but with pressure on crushing margins [2][5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil improved month - on - month, but high year - on - year production limited the upside. The medium - term de - stocking expectation in Southeast Asia has weakened. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7][9]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, shifting the global supply - demand balance from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Cotton**: The downstream operating rate remains at a medium level, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to be mostly stable with slight declines in some areas. The near - term futures contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term futures contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [19][20]. - **Pigs**: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose about 10 yuan/ton on Monday with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises increased by 0.1 days to 9.23 days, port soybean inventories decreased by 500,000 tons, but soybean meal inventories increased due to high crushing volume, about 550,000 tons higher year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the bottom of the import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% in the first 20 days of December. Ship - loading agency data indicates that exports decreased by 0.87% in the first 20 days. China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a significant increase. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday [7]. - **Strategy**: Excessive production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed palm oil prices. The current high - supply and high - inventory situation may reverse in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of a sharp decline due to high production in 2018 - 2019 should be noted. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound, with the May contract closing at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased by 90,000 tons year - on - year, while cumulative imports from January - November increased by 380,000 tons year - on - year. Brazilian and Indian sugar production data showed different trends [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, and the global supply - demand balance has shifted to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, with the May contract closing at 14,140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased. In November 2025, China's cotton imports increased by 10,000 tons year - on - year. As of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, slightly lower. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was adjusted down by 60,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad after the peak season, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most national egg prices were stable on Tuesday, with some areas seeing a slight decline. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, and terminal participation is conservative [19]. - **Strategy**: The previous over - expectation of the peak - season inventory has led to a high premium in the futures market. The near - term contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [20]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices mostly rose on Tuesday, with some areas stable or slightly lower. The average price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan to 11.69 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained stable at 11.61 yuan/kg. Northern secondary fattening purchases increased, and prices may be stable with a slight upward trend. Southern demand is lower than expected, with prices stable and slightly higher in the southwest [22]. - **Strategy**: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral Outlook**: Soybean [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall trend of agricultural products shows a mixed pattern, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - The prices of some products are expected to follow the market situation, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors such as export, weather, and production season [3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - The main soybean contract rebounded after a short - term gap, and the contract is being shifted. The auction of soybeans by CGS in the middle of this week had a certain supporting effect on the price, and the price was stable and strong. It is necessary to continuously monitor the fundamentals and policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The de - stocking trend of soybean meal since December is difficult to continue. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The price of US soybean futures has fallen back to the previous bottom range. The price of soybean meal will follow the US soybean to fluctuate in the near future [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil continued to rebound, while soybean oil fell back after rising. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil showed an improvement in exports and a decline in production, alleviating the negative atmosphere. US soybeans also rebounded after a recent decline [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market has seen rising meal and falling oil recently, but the overall fluctuation range is not large. The domestic coastal oil mills maintain a zero - pressing state. The import data in November shows that the trade between China and Russia in the rapeseed sector is getting closer. The rapeseed futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports have slowly declined. The downstream procurement has no obvious increase after the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures and spot markets have both risen slightly. It is expected that there will be a wave of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support the current pig price. In the medium - to - long term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year, and the main 03 contract price is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg contract has increased its position by more than 10,000 lots. The contracts corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival are weak, while the contracts from the second to the third quarter have increased in position and price. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry but gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "Oscillating Weakly", "Oscillating", and "Oscillating Upwards" [1][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various agricultural products, considering factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and policy impacts, and provides short - to long - term outlooks on price trends for each product [1][6][7] Summary by Product 1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, the market showed a divergent trend, with palm oil relatively resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Influenced by factors such as pre - holiday position adjustment, US soybean price decline, US dollar strengthening, and South American soybean harvest expectations, the market is facing multiple factors' games. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is oscillating weakly, palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating weakly [6] 2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply outlook for South American soybeans is optimistic, and both domestic and international markets are continuing to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: South American soybean sowing is nearly complete, and production prospects are good. In the US, soybean crushing has decreased month - on - month. In China, state - reserve soybean auctions continue, and inventory reduction is slow. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The purchasing demand for Northeast corn has declined, and price support has weakened. - **Logic**: Market rumors of reserve auctions and high - level price points have led to a change in market sentiment. In the Northeast, the willingness to sell has increased, and in North China, demand for Northeast corn has decreased. In the southern sales areas, the supply - demand contradiction will be alleviated. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, expected to fall first and then rise before the Spring Festival, with a low probability of breaking previous lows [1][9] 4. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Demand has boosted spot prices in the short term, but the futures market remains under pressure. - **Logic**: Supply pressure still exists in the short and medium term, but sow production capacity is expected to decrease in the long term, and demand is improving due to the approaching winter solstice. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - term contracts may be in a weak range, while far - term contracts are supported by production capacity reduction expectations [9] 5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The resistance at the pressure level is strong, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. - **Logic**: The market is in an oscillating pattern, with overseas supply increasing seasonally and demand being weak. - **Outlook**: Expected to continue oscillating, with no clear trend [13] 6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the adjustment strength and time. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after rising, but it may be the strongest among the three types of rubber. The raw material butadiene price has shown support. - **Outlook**: The futures market is temporarily considered to be oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the high - level resistance in late October [15] 7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices will continue to be strong in the short term. - **Logic**: Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing seasonally, but policy expectations and low warehouse receipts have attracted capital inflows. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is a risk of correction; in the long term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [16] 8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of loose supply, sugar prices continue to fall. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, and the supply of new sugar is increasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the long term [16] 9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Futures prices are fluctuating, and spot prices are continuously falling. - **Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors being more likely to be realized in the short term, and negative factors mainly related to long - term price transmission. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upwards [17] 10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Lack of driving force, with narrow - range fluctuations. - **Logic**: The market lacks clear upward or downward drivers, with stable prices in the short term and expected supply - demand adjustments in the medium term. - **Outlook**: Prices will be weakly stable [20] 11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are stabilizing, and futures prices are strengthening. - **Logic**: Supply pressure is gradually easing, and the futures market has certain support and game points. - **Outlook**: The market pattern remains loose, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage or long - position opportunities in far - term contracts [21] Commodity Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index on December 18, 2025, shows that the Commodity Index is 2272.81, up 0.44%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2604.10, up 0.53%; the Industrial Product Index is 2207.25, up 0.79%. - **Sector Index**: The Agricultural Product Index on December 18, 2025, is 915.35, with a daily decline of 0.35%, a 5 - day decline of 1.34%, a 1 - month decline of 0.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.12%. The PPI Commodity Index is 1367.53, up 0.65% [178][179]