农产品早报 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/25 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/18 | 2240 | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -33 | -10 | 407 | 2800 | 2950 | 151 | -73 | | 2025/06/19 | 2240 | 2330 | 2420 | 2450 | -75 | -10 | 400 | 2800 | 2950 | 145 | -72 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 | 410 | 2800 | 2950 | 144 | -72 | | 2025/06/23 | - | 2330 | 2440 | ...

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw mixed price movements for corn, wheat, and soybeans on June 16, with corn down 9.75 cents to $4.35 per bushel, wheat down 7.25 cents to $5.37 per bushel, and soybeans unchanged at $10.70 per bushel [1] - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record soybean crush of 192.8 million bushels in May, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with industry expectations [1] - The supply of feed in the market is ample, leading to difficulties in raising corn and wheat prices despite favorable weather conditions in the Midwest [1] Group 2 - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that corn export inspections for the week ending June 12 were 66 million bushels, lower than the previous week but up 28% year-on-year, reaching a cumulative total of 2.049 billion bushels for the crop year [2] - Soybean export inspections for the same week were 8 million bushels, down from 21 million bushels the previous week, while wheat inspections increased to 14 million bushels [2] - Weather forecasts predict rain coverage in the Plains, Midwest, and South until June 19, followed by a period of high temperatures in the corn belt from June 22 to 24 [2]

种植链农产品：全球大豆上半年丰产预估维持，底部看好大周期布局。 1）玉米：国内供需平衡趋于收紧，玉米价格有望维持温和上涨。USDA6 月 供需报告供需报告预计 25/26 产季全球玉米产量较 5 月预估调增 1 百万 吨（约+0.08%），总使用量较 5 月预估调增 1.4 百万吨（约+0.11%)， 最终全球期末库销比较 5 月预估环比调减 0.23pcts 至 21.57%；中国玉 米 25/26 产季供需预估环比持平，预计中国期末库销比同比减少 5.97pcts 至 56.75%。目前国内玉米价格已处于历史周期底部位置，中 长期供需平衡趋于收紧，后续预计价格底部支撑较强。 2）大豆：6 月 USDA 预估全球 25/26 期末库存略增，期末库销比预估同比减 少。USDA6 月供需报告 25/26 产季全球大豆产量环比 5 月预估持平，总 使用量环比调增 10 万吨（约+0.02%)，最终全球期末库存环比调增 97 万吨（约+0.78%)，全球期末库销比同比调减 0.81pcts、环比调增 0.22pcts 至 29.54%。总体 2025 上半年全球大豆供应充裕，考虑到贸易 政策扰动影响，预计价格维持底 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-13 现货价格涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡 近期市场资讯，2025年5月29日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为54.7万吨，此前市场预估为15.5-40万吨，前一周修正 后30.1万吨，初值为26.8万吨。截至2024年6月6日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为23.4万吨。本作物年度迄今，美国 大豆出口检验量累计为4518.8万吨，上一年度同期为4054.3万吨。 市场分析 国内方面，随着巴西大豆的大量到港，国内油厂开机率迅速提升，豆粕库存也从之前的低位迅速上升，预计未来 豆粕累库节奏还将进一步加快。整体来看，短期内巴西升贴水的上升将一定程度上对豆粕有所支撑，但大豆整体 较为宽松的供应格局仍未改变，未来需重点关注巴西升贴水的变化情况、美豆种植区的天气情况以及政策端的变 化情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3049元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2509合约2674元/吨，较前 日变动+36元/吨，幅度+1.36%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2950元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the supply of essential consumer goods in Guangzhou was sufficient, with slight price declines observed for meat, eggs, and vegetables compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Vegetable Market - The trading volume of vegetables in May saw a slight decrease, with an average daily trading volume down by 3.24% compared to April [2] - The average retail price of 32 major vegetables was 4.28 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting a decrease of 0.81% month-on-month [2] - Among the 32 vegetables, 18 saw price declines while 14 experienced price increases, with notable decreases in prices for white bean pods (down 8.90%), cucumbers (down 5.26%), and green pointed peppers (down 3.38%) [2] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs increased by 0.36% month-on-month, while pig prices continued to decline, down by 1.73%, leading to a sustained decrease in pork retail prices for three consecutive months [3] - The average retail price for four types of pork was 20.75 yuan per 500 grams, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous month [3] - The retail price of eggs was 5.97 yuan per 500 grams, down by 0.67%, while the price of light chickens rose slightly by 0.65% to 20.07 yuan per 500 grams [4] Group 3: Other Consumer Goods - The average retail price of five types of aquatic products was 13.76 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting an increase of 1.46% month-on-month [4] - The retail prices of various rice types showed mixed results, with prices for japonica rice rising by 0.32% while late indica rice decreased by 0.62% [4] - The retail price of 5 liters of refined peanut oil was 153.64 yuan per barrel, showing a slight decrease of 0.07% [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The price trend for vegetables in Guangzhou is expected to show a slight rebound after initially declining, with projections indicating a small increase in the near term [5] - Overall, the prices of live pigs and pork have been on a downward trend throughout the year, with expectations of continued weak performance in meat prices as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oils, it is expected that the global soybean supply will remain loose in the 2025/26 season. Although the planting area and output of US soybeans will decrease, Brazil's soybean output may reach a record high. Currently, the weather in the main soybean - growing areas in the US is good, and the planting progress is fast. In the domestic market, a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports, and the weekly soybean crushing volume will exceed 2 million tons, leading to a gradual build - up of soybean oil inventory. The CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices may fluctuate weakly. Palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, but the inventory build - up in Malaysia in May is expected to be small due to improved export demand. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level, and the import volume is expected to increase gradually. Rapeseed prices in the Intercontinental Exchange are rising, providing support for rapeseed oil, but the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high. The strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil for arbitrage [5][7]. - For protein meals, the global soybean supply will remain loose in the 2025/26 season. The domestic soybean crushing volume is high, and the soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. The rebound space of soybean meal is limited. The price of rapeseed meal is supported by the rising rapeseed price, but the high inventory of imported rapeseed meal restricts its upward movement. The strategy is to wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy 3.1.1 Oils - **Core fundamentals**: Global soybean supply is loose. US soybean planting progress is fast, and domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory. Palm oil production increase in Malaysia is small, and exports are improving. Rapeseed prices support rapeseed oil, but domestic rapeseed oil supply is abundant [7]. - **Cost and profit**: As of May 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans in July is 3,557 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 184 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (June shipment) is 8,456 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 125.36 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) is 5,253 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of - 68 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and demand**: In June, the estimated import volume of soybeans is 10.5 million tons, rapeseed is 200,000 tons, and palm oil is 252,000 tons. In May, the domestic soybean oil sales decreased by 42%, palm oil sales increased by 30.34%, and rapeseed oil sales decreased by 23% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of May 23, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 4.70% [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; focus on the opportunity of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil for arbitrage [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Core fundamentals**: Global soybean supply is loose. Domestic soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. The rebound of soybean meal is restricted by the large arrival of soybeans. Rapeseed meal is supported by the rising rapeseed price, but the high inventory of imported rapeseed meal restricts its upward movement [10]. - **Cost and profit**: As of May 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans in July is 3,557 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 184 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) is 5,253 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of - 68 yuan/ton [10]. - **Supply and demand**: In June, the estimated import volume of soybeans is 10.5 million tons and rapeseed is 200,000 tons. From May 3 - 30, the total soybean meal sales decreased by 20.47% compared with April. The coastal rapeseed meal pick - up volume decreased by 25.50%, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal increased by 24.42% [10]. - **Inventory**: In the 21st week, the soybean meal inventory in oil mills increased by 70% from the previous week, still at a low level. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are 5.99 days, still at a low level. The rapeseed meal inventory in coastal oil mills decreased by 18.97% in the 21st week, while the imported rapeseed meal inventory is still high [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [10]. 3.2 Market Review of Oils and Meals in May 2025 - **Oils**: The oils sector fluctuated narrowly in May, affected by the rumor of US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil inventory is increasing, palm oil did not weaken during the production - increasing period due to improved exports, and rapeseed oil is supported by cost [14]. - **Price differences**: The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [19]. - **Spot prices**: In May, the spot price of rapeseed oil increased slightly, while the spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. On May 30, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,474 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 7,928 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton; and the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [21]. - **Protein meals**: Soybean and rapeseed meals rebounded in late May. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed to a low level, and the oil - meal ratio decreased. The spot price of soybean meal decreased significantly, while the spot price of rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level [25][28][31]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds - International Situation - **Global oilseed supply**: It is expected that the global oilseed supply will be loose in the 2025/26 season. The global oilseed output is expected to be 692.1 million tons, a 2% increase. The global soybean output is expected to be 426.8 million tons, a 1% increase. The total output of rapeseed and sunflower seeds is expected to recover by 6% [36]. - **US soybeans**: The weather in the main soybean - growing areas is good, the planting progress is fast, and the crushing profit is low. As of May 25, the planting progress is 76%, and the emergence rate is 50% [45][47][51]. - **Brazilian soybeans**: The harvest is basically completed, and the export is still at a peak. It is estimated that the export volume in May is 14.03 million tons, a 4.16% year - on - year increase. The CNF premium has decreased slightly [54][56]. - **Argentine soybeans**: The current harvest progress is slow, but it is expected to speed up as the rainfall decreases [60]. - **Malaysian palm oil**: The production in May increased slightly, and the export improved. The inventory build - up in April exceeded expectations [63][68]. - **Global rapeseed**: It is expected that the global rapeseed output will recover in the 2025/26 season, reaching 89.558 million tons, a 445,900 - ton increase. The production increase mainly comes from the EU, Canada, and Russia [71]. - **Canadian rapeseed**: The rainfall in the main growing areas is slightly lower than normal, the planting progress is fast, and the export demand is strong. The price of rapeseed futures in the Intercontinental Exchange has been rising [74][77][81]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds - Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: It is expected that a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports from June to July. The soybean inventory in oil mills will gradually increase, the import cost in May decreased, the crushing profit increased, and the crushing volume is expected to remain high [86][90][94][98]. - **Palm oil**: The import cost in May decreased slightly, the import profit improved, and the import volume in June is expected to increase [102][106][109]. - **Rapeseed**: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed in May increased, the crushing profit narrowed, the inventory in oil mills is low, and the crushing volume decreased significantly [113][118][127]. - **Oils inventory**: In May, the total inventory of the three major oils was relatively stable, but the inventory trends were different. Soybean oil inventory increased rapidly, rapeseed oil inventory decreased from a high level, and palm oil inventory remained low [131][137]. - **Oils trading volume**: In May, the trading volume of palm oil increased, while the trading volumes of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased [140]. - **Soybean meal**: The inventory is gradually increasing, and the trading volume in May decreased [143][147]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The inventory in oil mills is low, the port inventory is high, and the consumption in May decreased slightly [151][154][157].

农产品早报 棉花：新疆大幅增产，达到十年来最高产量水平。国际贸易环境恶劣，叠加美国取消800美金以下小包裹赦免，大量通过小包裹运输的服装订 单将受到影响。内需恢复有限，整体需求端较差。本年度供需偏宽松，后续关注国内利好政策、贸易战变动及宏观风险。 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/16 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/05/09 2180 | 2270 | 2410 | 2370 | -105 | -35 294 | 2800 | 2950 | 47 | -61 | | 2025/05/12 2180 | 2270 | 2400 | 2370 | -93 | -35 287 | 2800 | 2950 | 50 | 11 | | 2025/05/13 2180 | 2270 | 240 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Corn Market Analysis Industry Overview - The conference focused on the corn market in China, discussing supply and demand changes, import dynamics, and price trends [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increase in Corn Imports**: China began significantly increasing corn imports starting from the 2020-2021 crop year, with imports rising from 7.6 million tons in the 2019-2020 crop year to 29.5 million tons in the 2020-2021 crop year, indicating a substantial increase in reliance on imported corn [2][3]. 2. **Decline in Import Proportion**: By the 2023-2024 crop year, the proportion of imported corn decreased significantly to 13%, down from a range of 50% to 70% previously, with a shift in sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil [3][4]. 3. **Current Import Levels**: The total import volume is expected to stabilize around 7.2 million tons, similar to the 2019-2020 levels, with no significant drivers for exceeding import quotas [4][5]. 4. **Impact of Tariffs on Imports**: The increase in import tariffs, which rose to 50%, has rendered corn imports unprofitable, leading to a significant reduction in import activity [5][15]. 5. **Domestic Price Trends**: The overall price trend for domestic corn is expected to rise, supported by supply-demand dynamics, although this may take time to materialize [6][7]. 6. **Market Conditions**: The current market is characterized by a balance in supply and demand, with sufficient grain supply preventing significant price increases [8][9]. 7. **Storage and Inventory Levels**: High inventory levels at northern ports are contributing to a lack of confidence in price increases, with expectations that inventory will need to be reduced before prices can rise significantly [9][10]. 8. **Feed Demand**: The consumption of corn for feed is projected at 170 million tons, with deep processing demand at approximately 7.8 million tons, indicating stable demand levels [20][21]. 9. **Wheat and Corn Dynamics**: The relationship between wheat and corn prices is complex, with wheat prices expected to remain stable due to government support and the potential for wheat to substitute corn in feed [12][19]. 10. **Future Considerations**: Attention will be needed on the spring planting situation and potential changes in planting areas, which could impact future corn supply [17][18]. Other Important Insights - The analysis highlighted the importance of monitoring the overall agricultural policy environment and market conditions, as these factors will influence both corn and wheat prices moving forward [12][19]. - The discussion also touched on the implications of potential changes in import dynamics and domestic production levels, which could affect the overall corn market landscape in China [15][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the corn market, focusing on import trends, pricing dynamics, and the interplay between domestic and international factors affecting supply and demand.