Report Overview - Report Title: "Palm Oil: Boosted by Macroeconomics, Beware of Sentiment Reversal; Soybean Oil: Following the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties" [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil is boosted by macro factors, but there is a need to be vigilant about sentiment reversal; soybean oil follows the oil and fat sector and is relatively weak among varieties [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,926 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.18% increase and 8,954 yuan/ton at night with a 0.31% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,076 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.20% decrease and 8,072 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decrease; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,477 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.90% decrease and 9,450 yuan/ton at night with a -0.28% decrease; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,263 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.88% increase and 4,233 ringgit/ton at night with a -0.31% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 55.48 cents/pound with a -0.61% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 706,504 lots with a decrease of 2,205 lots and an open interest of 492,920 lots with a decrease of 16,949 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 296,786 lots with a decrease of 24,688 lots and an open interest of 521,320 lots with a decrease of 14,497 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 298,782 lots with an increase of 55,607 lots and an open interest of 225,053 lots with a decrease of 16,433 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,280 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,550 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,040 dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar decrease [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 74 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 204 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 73 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil主力 was 551 yuan/ton (previous 653 yuan/ton); the futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil主力 was - 850 yuan/ton (previous - 818 yuan/ton); palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton (previous 52 yuan/ton); soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton (previous 44 yuan/ton); rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan/ton (previous 71 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - UOB estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20, 2025, is expected to increase by 5 - 9%, with production in Sabah expected to decrease by 0 - 4%, in Sarawak to decrease by 1% to increase by 3%, and in Peninsular Malaysia to increase by 11 - 15% [3] - MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil next month to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit, driven by the strong soybean oil market and Indian festival demand. However, the upward trend of vegetable oil prices may be restricted by the abundant global oilseed supply, especially soybeans. Since January, soybean oil has rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of 19%, exceeding the increases of rapeseed oil and palm oil. From May to June, Malaysia's palm oil exports to India were above 250,000 tons each month, and this positive trend is expected to continue in Q3. India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in Q3 [5] - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [5] - India's Ministry of Agriculture states that oil palm cultivation is not promoted in forest areas to address environmental concerns [6] - USDA's weekly soybean crushing report shows that as of July 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [6] - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July 2025 will be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports will be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports will be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [6] - IMEA reports that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from July 14 - 18, 2025, was 441.52 reais/ton, down from 443.58 reais/ton the previous week [7] - As of July 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons (compared to 200,000 tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 520,000 tons (compared to 770,000 tons last year), and soybean meal imports were 1 million tons (compared to 1.11 million tons last year) [7] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [8]

二、市场信息 1. 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 7 月 1-20 日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月 同期增加 7.03%，出油率环比上月同期减少 0.16%，产量环比上月同期增加 6.19%。 2. 马来西亚独立检验机构 Amspec 表示，马来西亚 7 月 1-20 日的棕榈油出口量为 740394 吨，上月同期为 798813 吨，环比减少 7.31%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 成利多，然而考虑到目前的高存栏及冷库蛋等供给问题，蛋价高点大概率低于去 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2509 | 年同期。 周一，生猪主力 早盘反弹，随后有所回落，截至收盘，日收涨 1.63%，报收 | | | | 14365 元/吨。生猪现货方面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 14.4 元/公 斤，环比涨 0.24 元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 14.48 元/公斤，环比涨 | | | 生猪 | 0.02 元/公斤，广东、山东、四川、辽宁不同程度上涨。养殖端挺价意愿转强， | 震荡 | | | 叠加少 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For corn, recent reserve auctions of imported corn have increased market supply slightly, easing the previous tense market sentiment and leading some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and the depletion of old - crop stocks still supports prices. In the long - term, the widening import profit may lead to increased imports and weaker far - month prices [1]. - For starch, some enterprises have raised the price of finished starch due to production losses this week. In the short - term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high industry inventory limits the rebound. In the long - term, the off - season consumption restricts price increases, and after a small profit repair, short the far - month contracts [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices with support at the Brazilian ethanol price. The Brazilian sugar market has accumulated risks, and raw sugar has the power to rebound. The domestic sugar market follows the international one, but with a smaller amplitude. The upcoming large - scale arrival of imported sugar creates upward pressure on the futures market [3]. - For cotton, the rapid decline in cotton inventory drives up prices, but there is resistance from hedging and weak downstream demand. If demand worsens or there are macro risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will fluctuate [6]. - For eggs, high - temperature and high - humidity weather in northern production areas in early July affected storage and transportation, causing the futures price to fall. As the weather clears, prices will enter a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9]. - For apples, the apple bagging in each production area has ended. The new - crop output may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. Spot prices have risen, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples [12]. - For pigs, the reduction in production capacity is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. In the medium - term, price rebounds are not conducive to de - stocking. Futures prices are rising on expectations, but need to be verified by spot prices. Spot price rebounds face resistance, and factors like the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies should be monitored [12]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price in Changchun remained at 2230, in Jinzhou at 2300, and in Shekou at 2430. The price in Weifang increased by 20. The corn basis increased by 2, and the import profit decreased by 8. For starch, the processing profit decreased by 7 [1]. - **Analysis**: The supply has increased slightly due to reserve auctions, and prices may be supported in the short - term but face risks in the long - term. Starch prices are affected by raw material prices and inventory [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning decreased by 10, and the basis decreased by 16. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 313 [3]. - **Analysis**: The Brazilian sugar market is in the peak season, and the domestic market follows with less volatility. Imported sugar arrival creates pressure on the domestic market [3]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 110, and the import profit decreased. The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 73 [6]. - **Analysis**: The decline in inventory drives up prices, but downstream factors limit the increase [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price in Hubei increased by 0.07, and the basis increased by 50. The price of live pigs decreased by 0.13 [8]. - **Analysis**: Weather affected prices in early July, and seasonal factors may drive prices up, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8100. The national inventory increased by 16, Shandong inventory by 2, and Shaanxi inventory by 22 [12]. - **Analysis**: The new - crop output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 140 [12]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure remains, and price rebounds need to be verified by spot prices [12].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For soybean meal, in the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans remains abundant, and if the weather for new - season US soybeans remains favorable, a bumper harvest is expected [2] - For corn, the current supply is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices. New - season corn may face potential production cuts, and prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern during the listing period [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2935 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2576 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - US soybean: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8% [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2676 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2760 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [3] - US corn: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 18%. Brazil's daily average corn export volume in the first week of July was 3000 tons, an 80% decrease compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Soybean Meal - In the near term, the arrival of soybeans at ports remains above 10 million tons, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is increasing rapidly. The supply of domestic soybeans will remain abundant until the new - season US soybeans are on the market. The planting area of new - season US soybeans has decreased significantly, but the current and future weather is favorable, and a bumper harvest is expected [2] Corn - Currently, the supply of corn is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices, so they are expected to remain volatile. New - season corn may face production cuts, and during the listing period, prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern under the influence of selling pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn sectors is to be cautiously bearish [3][5]

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/08 玉米：近期储备抛储进口玉米，使得市场供应端呈现小幅增量态势，此前紧张的市场情绪得以阶段性缓解，部分用粮企业随之下调收购价格。 短期看，抛储的意图主要为了缓和市场紧张氛围，并不是为了打压玉米价格，在进口偏少的情况下，旧作库存见底依旧对玉米价格形成支撑。 中长期来看，进口利润持续走阔，虽然短期不会对国内供应形成压制，不过警惕进口增加远月价格走弱的风险。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 潍坊 | 锦州 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/01 2260 | 2490 | 2330 | 2460 | -53 | 0 | 462 | 2850 | 2950 | 102 | -63 | | 2025/07/02 2260 | 2478 | 2330 | 2460 | -33 | 0 | 470 ...

农产品早报 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/25 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/18 | 2240 | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -33 | -10 | 407 | 2800 | 2950 | 151 | -73 | | 2025/06/19 | 2240 | 2330 | 2420 | 2450 | -75 | -10 | 400 | 2800 | 2950 | 145 | -72 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 | 410 | 2800 | 2950 | 144 | -72 | | 2025/06/23 | - | 2330 | 2440 | ...

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw mixed price movements for corn, wheat, and soybeans on June 16, with corn down 9.75 cents to $4.35 per bushel, wheat down 7.25 cents to $5.37 per bushel, and soybeans unchanged at $10.70 per bushel [1] - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record soybean crush of 192.8 million bushels in May, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with industry expectations [1] - The supply of feed in the market is ample, leading to difficulties in raising corn and wheat prices despite favorable weather conditions in the Midwest [1] Group 2 - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that corn export inspections for the week ending June 12 were 66 million bushels, lower than the previous week but up 28% year-on-year, reaching a cumulative total of 2.049 billion bushels for the crop year [2] - Soybean export inspections for the same week were 8 million bushels, down from 21 million bushels the previous week, while wheat inspections increased to 14 million bushels [2] - Weather forecasts predict rain coverage in the Plains, Midwest, and South until June 19, followed by a period of high temperatures in the corn belt from June 22 to 24 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5][10][11] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a positive cycle, particularly in beef and dairy markets, with potential upward price movements in 2025 [5][8][10] - The report highlights a generally neutral outlook for soybean supply and demand, with expectations of price stability in the near term [2][28] - The overall supply of corn is tightening, leading to a forecast of moderate price increases [1][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA June report estimates a global corn production increase of 1 million tons (approximately +0.08%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.4 million tons (approximately +0.11%) [1][18] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.94% to 275.24 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.23 percentage points to 21.57% [18][19] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, supported by a tightening supply-demand balance [21][22] Soybeans - The USDA June report indicates that global soybean production for the 25/26 season remains unchanged from May estimates, with a slight increase in total usage by 100,000 tons (approximately +0.02%) [2][28] - The final global ending stocks are projected to increase by 970,000 tons (approximately +0.78%) to 125.3 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [2][29] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain stable at the bottom of the market in the first half of 2025 [30][37] Wheat - The USDA June report forecasts a global wheat production increase of 70,000 tons (approximately +0.01%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.8 million tons (approximately +0.22%) [3][45] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 2.97 million tons (approximately -1.12%) to 26.276 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.44 percentage points to 32.45% [3][45] - The wheat market is expected to remain in a loose supply-demand balance, with prices likely to stabilize at the bottom [3][45] Sugar - Short-term sugar imports are expected to increase, with market prices likely to remain weak due to ample supply [4][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Brazilian weather and sugar production progress, as well as potential geopolitical risks affecting supply [4][16] Cotton - The report indicates that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes, with a projected decrease in global production and demand [4][18] - The final stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease by 1.16 percentage points to 65.22%, indicating a loose supply-demand balance [4][18] Beef - The report predicts an upward trend in U.S. beef prices for 2026, with a significant reduction in supply expected [5][20] - Domestic beef prices are expected to remain strong despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [5][23] Dairy - The report suggests that the dairy market may experience a reversal in 2025, driven by reduced production and increased overseas consumption [8][25] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to supply constraints and reduced imports [8][27] Pork - The U.S. pork market is expected to see a slight increase in demand, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply growth [8][29] - Domestic breeding stock levels are expected to remain stable, supporting profitability in the pork sector [8][30] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is projected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand expected to improve [9][32] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are expected to weaken, allowing for a gradual recovery in supply [9][32] Eggs - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in egg supply starting in the second half of 2025, with overall supply expected to remain ample [9][36] - Domestic egg prices are projected to face downward pressure due to high supply levels [9][37]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-13 现货价格涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡 近期市场资讯，2025年5月29日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为54.7万吨，此前市场预估为15.5-40万吨，前一周修正 后30.1万吨，初值为26.8万吨。截至2024年6月6日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为23.4万吨。本作物年度迄今，美国 大豆出口检验量累计为4518.8万吨，上一年度同期为4054.3万吨。 市场分析 国内方面，随着巴西大豆的大量到港，国内油厂开机率迅速提升，豆粕库存也从之前的低位迅速上升，预计未来 豆粕累库节奏还将进一步加快。整体来看，短期内巴西升贴水的上升将一定程度上对豆粕有所支撑，但大豆整体 较为宽松的供应格局仍未改变，未来需重点关注巴西升贴水的变化情况、美豆种植区的天气情况以及政策端的变 化情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3049元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2509合约2674元/吨，较前 日变动+36元/吨，幅度+1.36%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2950元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the supply of essential consumer goods in Guangzhou was sufficient, with slight price declines observed for meat, eggs, and vegetables compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Vegetable Market - The trading volume of vegetables in May saw a slight decrease, with an average daily trading volume down by 3.24% compared to April [2] - The average retail price of 32 major vegetables was 4.28 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting a decrease of 0.81% month-on-month [2] - Among the 32 vegetables, 18 saw price declines while 14 experienced price increases, with notable decreases in prices for white bean pods (down 8.90%), cucumbers (down 5.26%), and green pointed peppers (down 3.38%) [2] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs increased by 0.36% month-on-month, while pig prices continued to decline, down by 1.73%, leading to a sustained decrease in pork retail prices for three consecutive months [3] - The average retail price for four types of pork was 20.75 yuan per 500 grams, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous month [3] - The retail price of eggs was 5.97 yuan per 500 grams, down by 0.67%, while the price of light chickens rose slightly by 0.65% to 20.07 yuan per 500 grams [4] Group 3: Other Consumer Goods - The average retail price of five types of aquatic products was 13.76 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting an increase of 1.46% month-on-month [4] - The retail prices of various rice types showed mixed results, with prices for japonica rice rising by 0.32% while late indica rice decreased by 0.62% [4] - The retail price of 5 liters of refined peanut oil was 153.64 yuan per barrel, showing a slight decrease of 0.07% [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The price trend for vegetables in Guangzhou is expected to show a slight rebound after initially declining, with projections indicating a small increase in the near term [5] - Overall, the prices of live pigs and pork have been on a downward trend throughout the year, with expectations of continued weak performance in meat prices as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches [5]