Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to weaken in the short - term due to concentrated grain listings but may rebound in the medium - to long - term as farmers may resist selling at low prices [2] - Starch prices are currently under pressure due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for future price trends [2] - Sugar prices are affected by international supply pressure and domestic cost support, and may face challenges if global surplus intensifies [5] - Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand - side changes [7] - Egg prices have rebounded slightly due to supply and demand factors, and the future price trend depends on the speed of chicken culling [13] - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term as the new - season output decreases and the opening price is higher than last year [15] - Pig prices are currently weak, and the key drivers of the market are the paths of production and inventory reduction, with attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, corn prices in different regions showed various changes, with a maximum decrease of 40 in some areas, and starch processing profit remained at 32 in the end [1] - **Analysis**: Short - term pressure on corn prices due to concentrated listings; mid - to long - term depends on the game between farmers and traders. Starch prices follow raw material prices, and high inventory suppresses prices [2] Sugar - **Price Data**: The provided table shows sugar spot prices in different regions, as well as data on basis, import profit, and warehouse receipts from October 29 to November 4, 2025, with some price changes [4] - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects sugar prices, and domestic prices are supported by production costs but may face challenges from imports [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, cotton prices showed a downward trend, and cotton yarn profit improved gradually [6] - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand - side changes [7] Eggs - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, egg prices in different regions remained relatively stable, with a 33 decrease in basis [13] - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand has increased slightly, leading to a slight price rebound. Future prices depend on the speed of chicken culling [13] Apples - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000, and the basis showed a decreasing trend [14][15] - **Analysis**: New - season output has decreased, and affected by rainfall, the quality in some areas is poor. The opening price is higher than last year, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate upward [15] Pigs - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, pig prices in different regions decreased, with a maximum decrease of 0.35, and the basis decreased by 200 [15] - **Analysis**: Spot prices are weak, and the key to the market is the paths of production and inventory reduction, with attention to slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, corn spot prices will be under pressure due to concentrated grain listings, but after the first peak of grain sales, prices may rebound as farmers may hold back supply. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short term, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor in the long term. Sugar prices are affected by international supply pressure and domestic import regulations, and domestic sugar cost is a support. Cotton prices are in a range - bound state, and the downside is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Egg prices have rebounded slightly due to supply and demand factors, and the focus is on the chicken culling rhythm. Apple prices are expected to be volatile and upward in the short term due to production and quality issues. Pig prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory, and the key is the path of production and inventory reduction [2][5][7][13][15] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, corn prices in Changchun remained unchanged, increased by 10 in Jinzhou and Weifang, and remained unchanged in Shekou. The corn basis decreased by 9, trade profit decreased by 10, and import profit remained unchanged. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 21, and processing profit data was not provided [1] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices are pressured by concentrated grain listings. Starch prices follow raw material prices, and high inventory suppresses prices. Long - term: After the first peak of grain sales, corn prices may rebound as farmers may hold back supply. For starch, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor [2] Group 4: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/30, sugar spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained unchanged, decreased by 20 in Kunming, the Liuzhou basis decreased by 31, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 11 [3][4] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure weighs on sugar prices, and the ethanol cost provides support. Domestically, short - term Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the international market due to import regulations, and the domestic sugar cost is a support, but it may be broken if the global sugar surplus intensifies [5] Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5, the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 1, the import profit decreased, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 196, the price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 20, the Vietnamese yarn import profit decreased by 10, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 25 [6] Market Analysis - Cotton prices are in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the downside is limited, and the focus is on demand - side changes [7] Group 6: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, increased by 0.06 in Hubei, the basis increased by 14, the price of white - feather broilers remained unchanged, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.16 [13] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is relieved by ordered chicken culling and reduced new production. Demand is boosted by longer storage time. The price has rebounded slightly, and the focus is on the chicken culling rhythm [13] Group 7: Apples Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, increased by 30 in other areas, the 1 - month basis increased by 79, the 5 - month basis increased by 9, and the 10 - month basis increased [14][15] Market Analysis - New - season apples have production and quality issues. The opening price is higher than last year, and prices are expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [15] Group 8: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05, remained unchanged in Shandong Linyi, and the basis increased by 115 [15] Market Analysis - Spot prices are weak on weekends. The second - fattening is weak after price increases, and slaughter volume is down. The key is the path of production and inventory reduction, and the focus is on factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]

Core Insights - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans showed mixed price movements on October 29, with corn and wheat prices increasing while soybean prices declined [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.34 per bushel, up 2 cents or 0.46% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.32 per bushel, up 3.25 cents or 0.61% from the previous trading day [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.95 per bushel, down 0.75 cents or 0.07% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The agricultural market has already priced in positive developments regarding trade situations, leading to a decline in soybean prices due to profit-taking [1] - Analysts suggest that unless severe drought occurs in South America, there is limited upside potential for crop prices [2]

研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/28 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/10/21 | 2020 | 2130 | 2170 | 2310 | -14 | 40 195 | 2700 | 2800 | 226 | 112 | | 2025/10/22 | 2020 | 2130 | 2180 | 2300 | -3 | 30 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 229 | 112 | | 2025/10/23 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2290 | -30 | 30 176 | 2700 | 2800 | 205 | 112 | | 2025/10/24 | 2050 | 2110 | 2190 | 2280 | -23 | 20 142 | 2700 | 2800 ...

白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/10/10 5870 5800 5820 374 202 384 8867 2025/10/13 5850 5800 - 380 - - 8681 2025/10/14 5850 5810 5780 453 - - 8488 2025/10/15 5840 5790 5770 437 - - 8438 2025/10/16 5810 5790 5760 402 - - 8438 变化 -30 0 -10 -35 - - 0 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，现阶段巴西正处于压榨高峰期，供应压力使得国际糖价承压。截至目前，巴西单产和出糖率同比持续偏低，制糖比略有 回落但仍处于历史高位，后期产量不确定性增加，关注双周报数据。国内整体跟随原糖，进口糖陆续到港，加工糖报价下调明显，盘面上方压 力较大。 | 棉花棉纱 | | | 棉花 | | | 棉纱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 3128 | ...

【行情分析】： 玉米：新季玉米已陆续上市，国庆期间市场收购价大幅下调。短期来看，受粮源集中上市影响，玉米价格仍将维持弱势。中长期需重点关注产 区农户与贸易商的博弈，当前新季玉米产量增加、种植成本下滑，价格已逐步向种植成本靠拢；但鉴于当前绝对价格偏低且今年粮质较好，若 价格出现大幅回调，预计将触发农户抗价惜售情绪，进而带动玉米价格迎来反弹。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/15 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/30 | 2230 | 2190 | 2264 | 2440 | 47 | 115 306 | 2750 | 2850 | 237 | 9 | | 2025/10/09 | 2110 | 2130 | 2150 | 2410 | -8 | 145 290 | 2750 | 28 ...

2025年09月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微涨，连粕或略有反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：市场继续聚焦新棉上市 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季将过，轻仓过节 | 11 | | 生猪：现货底部未现，空单持有 | 12 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,23 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The center of the oil market is supported by factors such as low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and expected decline in export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the record - high domestic sugar imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. However, from a technical perspective, there may be a short - term rebound [12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the growth of the downstream industrial chain's operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. So, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is bearish. But due to the low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support below, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs is showing a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rebounded weakly. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax is bearish for the international soybean system. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 60 yuan/ton, and the transaction was good with high pick - up volume. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat in Argentina corresponds to approximately 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). The supply of global protein raw materials is in surplus, and Brazil may continue to expand its planting area [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, there may be a downward trend. In the medium - term, the strategy is to short - sell on rebounds, but the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. On September 23, the Malaysian palm oil's offshore price, import arrival price, and import cost price all declined. On Tuesday, the prices of the three major domestic oils dropped significantly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is still weak year - on - year, indicating low import willingness of demand countries or high production in Indonesia. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax on soybean oil is also bearish for international oils in the short - term [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants also declined. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 11.12% year - on - year [11]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The high domestic sugar imports in August and the significant increase in Brazil's sugar production are bearish factors for sugar prices [12]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a short - term rebound [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The spot price of cotton also declined. As of September 19, the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories showed different trends, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year. As of September 21, the US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased but was still higher than last year [14]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: It is the consumption season, but the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month [15]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is bearish, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few areas seeing price adjustments. The supply was stable, and the overall sales were average [17]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The basic production capacity is still large, but there is room for marginal improvement. The demand has many uncertainties [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was mainly stable with some areas showing weakness. The supply of pigs was abundant, and the increase in downstream procurement demand was limited [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The supply from large - scale farms has recovered more than expected, and the low demand has led to slow sales. There is also panic selling from small farmers [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20].

Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn approaching the market, enterprise demand for old corn is weakening, and prices are running weakly, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs, and may reverse when consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [4]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing raw corn decreases, enterprises are likely to lower the price of starch to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure supply during the peak crushing season is weighing on sugar prices. Domestic prices are following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving at ports and processed sugar prices dropping [5]. - Cotton: The price has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: Since September, the spot price has rebounded by nearly 40% due to increased demand and traders' "buy - on - rising" mentality. High inventory and cold - storage eggs cap the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Monitor the situation of culled hens and cold - storage egg release [10]. - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national output may not differ much from last year. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final output [12]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. The spot price has hit a new low this year, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Focus on factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for the missing data on the 22nd), the price in Jinzhou fluctuated from 2260 to 2250, and the price in Weifang remained at 2264. The price in Shekou remained at 2420. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2850 respectively [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weakening due to new - season supply, and starch price is expected to decline to reduce inventory. Long - term, both are under price - downward pressure [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 40, 30, and 25 respectively. The import profits from Thailand and Brazil increased by 23 each, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [5]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and domestic prices follow the international trend with increasing imported sugar supply [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 75, and the spot price of cotton yarn decreased by 50. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 63, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 29 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside and focus on demand changes [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, while the price in Hubei decreased by 0.11. The basis decreased by 40, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.08 [10]. - **Analysis**: Spot price has rebounded, but high inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below feed cost [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed by - 18, 7, and - 11 respectively [11][12]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, consumption is in the off - season, and price is stable. Monitor the final output [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 16 to 22, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.20, 0.20, 0.10, and 0.20 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 170 [16]. - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for next year, but medium - term supply pressure remains, and the spot price has hit a new low. Focus on slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16].

Rice - Domestic market shows sufficient supply of early indica rice and regrowth rice, with prices expected to trend weakly due to seasonal consumption decline [2] - Internationally, the rice market is characterized by ample supply, with prices anticipated to remain low [2] Wheat - Domestic wheat market has sufficient supply, with demand from flour and feed industries slowing down, leading to stable prices supported by policy purchases [3] - Globally, wheat supply is abundant as the Northern Hemisphere harvest nears completion, with international prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [3] Corn - Domestic corn market is in a tight balance, with prices expected to remain stable to slightly strong, despite reduced impact from reserve corn auctions [4] - Internationally, corn supply is ample with strong production expectations, leading to a forecast of weak price performance [4] Soybeans - Domestic soybean supply is primarily from state reserves and older beans, with prices expected to remain stable due to seasonal consumption decline [5] - Internationally, U.S. soybeans are in a critical growth stage, with prices likely to fluctuate due to weather speculation [5] Cotton - Domestic cotton commercial inventory continues to decline, with reduced consumption in textiles and apparel, leading to expected price fluctuations [6] - Internationally, the cotton supply remains ample, with demand affected by U.S. tariff policies, resulting in anticipated price volatility [6] Oilseeds - Domestic market sees reduced supply of rapeseed and peanut stocks, with prices expected to remain stable [7] - Internationally, strong production expectations for Canadian canola are noted, with prices expected to trend weakly [7] Sugar - Domestic sugar imports are increasing rapidly, but strong consumption and reduced industrial stocks are expected to keep prices stable [8] - Internationally, Brazil is entering peak sugar production season, while Thailand and India benefit from favorable weather, leading to a forecast of weak price fluctuations [8] Pork - Short-term pork market shows ample supply, but high temperatures and rainfall negatively impact transportation and consumption, leading to expected weak prices [9] - Future expectations indicate stabilization of pork prices as production capacity gradually reduces and the number of large pigs decreases [9]