Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and in the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap [2] - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by downstream holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - For sugar, the international market may see increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing refers to domestic sugar prices, while long - term it may seek the cost of out - of - quota imports [4] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline [6] - For eggs, observe the chicken culling situation after the decline of near - end spot prices, and the spread between culled and white chickens [14] - Apple prices of general - quality fruit farmer goods are stable to weak, while good - quality goods remain stable, with varying inventory and sales situations [17] - For pigs, the short - term spot price is weak, with mid - term pressure and long - term inflection point support, and attention should be paid to factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [17] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Corn**: From February 4th to 10th, prices in some regions remained stable, with a 10 - point increase in the price in Shekou. The basis changed by - 21, and trade profit increased by 10. Near the Spring Festival, market trading is light, and prices are expected to oscillate. Long - term focus on import and auction policies [2] - **Starch**: From February 4th to 10th, prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, the basis decreased by 9, and processing profit remained at - 83. Near the Spring Festival, some enterprises shut down for maintenance, and short - term prices are supported by downstream stocking [2][3] Sugar - From February 4th to 10th, prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 10, 20, and 20 respectively. The basis decreased by 7, and import profit increased by 80. The international market may have increased production, and the domestic market's short - and long - term pricing is affected by different factors [4] Cotton - From February 4th to 10th, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 80, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 50. Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term long positions [6][19] Eggs - From February 4th to 10th, prices in some producing areas remained stable, the basis increased by 7, and the price of substitutes like pigs decreased by 0.08. Observe chicken culling after the decline of near - end spot prices [13][14] Apples - From February 4th to 10th, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00. Due to festival stocking, inventory reduction accelerated, and prices of general - quality fruit farmer goods are stable to weak [16][17] Pigs - From February 4th to 10th, prices in some producing areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 155. The short - term spot price is weak, with mid - term pressure and long - term inflection point support [17]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short - term due to supply constraints and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [3]. - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythms [4]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing refers to domestic sugar, with long - term trends depending on the degree of global surplus [5]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [7]. - Egg prices may face pressure in the second quarter, and the key is to monitor the post - holiday price drop and the resulting impact on chicken culling [14]. - Apple prices for high - quality goods are stable, while lower - quality goods' prices are weakening, and the inventory removal speed is accelerating [18]. - The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and the futures market is volatile [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, corn prices in some ports decreased (e.g., - 10 in Changchun and Jinzhou, - 20 in Shekou), while starch processing profit increased by 20 [3]. - **Analysis**: Corn prices are supported in the short - term by supply constraints and downstream demand, and long - term policies are key. Starch prices are supported in the short - term by stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term consumption is crucial [3][4]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 20, and import profit from Thailand decreased by 9, from Brazil decreased by 10 [5]. - **Analysis**: The international market expects increased production, and the domestic market's short - term pricing is based on domestic sugar, with long - term trends related to global surplus [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 125, and 32S spinning profit increased by 101 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline, making it suitable for long - term investment [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, egg prices in some regions decreased (e.g., - 0.13 in Hebei, - 0.14 in Liaoning), and the basis decreased by 266 [14]. - **Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to pre - holiday stocking but weakened later. Post - holiday price drop and chicken culling are key factors for second - quarter supply [14]. Apples - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the 1 - month basis increased by 64, the 5 - month basis increased by 138, and the 10 - month basis increased by 87 [18]. - **Analysis**: Apple trading is light, high - quality prices are stable, lower - quality prices are weakening, and inventory removal is accelerating [18]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, pig prices in some regions rebounded (e.g., + 0.20 in Henan Kaifeng, + 0.35 in Hubei Xiangyang), and the basis increased by 200 [18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and futures market sentiment is volatile [18].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Report type: Agricultural products morning report [12] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Corn - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Changchun remained at 2190, in Jinzhou at 2290 - 2300, in Weifang increased from 2260 to 2300, in Shekou decreased from 2440 to 2430. The basis changed from 0 to 9, and the trade profit and import profit changed from 338 to 310 [3] - Market analysis: Short - term, with producers holding prices and limited supply increase, and low inventory and downstream stocking expectations, prices are expected to be strong. Medium - to long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap [3] Starch - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, in Weifang at 2820. The basis changed from 80 to 160, and the processing profit changed from - 90 to - 98 [3] - Market analysis: Short - term, with festival stocking and inventory reduction, enterprise quotes are expected to be strong. Medium - to long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory changes [4] Group 3: Sugar Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Liuzhou increased from 5340 to 5370, in Nanning from 5280 to 5320, in Kunming from 5170 to 5190. The basis decreased from 160 to 113, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 40 [5] - Market analysis: Internationally, 25/26 season northern hemisphere production is expected to increase. Domestically, short - term supply pressure eases, and long - term, if global surplus intensifies, prices may fall to import cost [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Cotton - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased from 15630 to 15880, the import profit from 2914 to 3036, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + forecast) decreased by 11 [5] - Market analysis: Low initial inventory offsets production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promoting policies, demand is expected to improve. New - season Xinjiang planting area may decline, suitable for long - term long positions [5] Group 5: Egg Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable, and the basis increased from 511 to 1214 [6] - Market analysis: Spring Festival stocking drives price rebound, and the chicken culling pace slows. Pay attention to demand and culling data, as different culling choices will affect second - quarter egg prices [6] Group 6: Apple Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The 1 - month basis decreased from 684 to 609, the 5 - month basis from - 635 to - 742, and the 10 - month basis from 556 to 474 [9] - Market analysis: The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is light. Good - quality apples maintain stable prices, while lower - quality apples' prices are loose. As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate is 14.06% [10] Group 7: Pig Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Henan Kaifeng decreased from 13.23 to 12.63, in Hubei Xiangyang from 13.00 to 12.35, in Shandong Linyi from 13.27 to 12.77, in Anhui Hefei from 13.65 to 12.90, in Jiangsu Nantong from 13.80 to 13.05. The basis decreased from 1665 to 1465 [10] - Market analysis: Weekend spot prices are first strong then weak. Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, but it's difficult to maintain high prices. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, with potential short - term supply - demand mismatch. Pay attention to factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: January 28, 2026 [1] - Report Team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Corn - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Changchun remained at 2190, in Jinzhou at 2300, in Weifang increased by 10 to 2270, and in Shekou remained at 2440. The basis increased by 10 to 17, and the trade profit and import profit changed to 0 - 325 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market sentiment was slightly disturbed this week. Port spot prices first declined and then rose, remaining at last week's level. In the short - term, due to the strong price - holding and reluctance to sell in the producing areas, supply increase is limited. With low inventory in the channels and downstream stocking expectations, corn prices are expected to be moderately strong. In the long - term, focus on structural changes, import policies, and domestic auction policies [2]. Starch - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, in Weifang at 2820. The basis increased by 58 to 155, and the processing profit decreased by 2 to - 92 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The deep - processing industry is stable with a slight increase in the startup rate. Downstream seasonal stocking has accelerated inventory reduction. In the short - term, festival stocking expectations and inventory reduction support strong enterprise quotes. In the long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm, and whether inventory continues to decline after the seasonal peak will be the key factor for starch pricing [3] Group 3: Sugar - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Liuzhou decreased by 10 to 5330, in Nanning remained at 5270, in Kunming decreased by 10 to 5155. The basis decreased by 6 to 162, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 22 to 156, from Brazil decreased by 22 to 333, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 322 to 14169 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: In the international market, for the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. In the domestic market, short - term raw sugar supply pressure is reduced, and the futures price can refer to the domestic sugar spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Cotton - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25 to 15535, the import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 183 to 11313 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable domestic consumption - promotion policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term investment [4]. Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 3 to - 163, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 27 to - 801 [4]. Group 5: Eggs - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Hebei increased by 0.11 to 3.84, in Liaoning by 0.11 to 3.78, in Shandong by 0.10 to 4.00, in Henan by 0.10 to 4.10, in Hubei by 0.09 to 3.93. The basis increased by 70 to 580 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Recent Spring Festival stocking has boosted the spot price, and the pace of culling laying hens has slowed. In the first half of the week, sales were fast, but later, the terminal's acceptance of high prices was limited. If the spot price drops and stimulates farmers to cull old hens, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter; otherwise, the capacity reduction will slow down, and the second - quarter contract will be under pressure [6] Group 6: Apples - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00. The 1 - month basis decreased by 30 to 631.00, the 5 - month basis decreased by 38 to - 604.00, and the 10 - month basis decreased by 47 to 523.00 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. Traders are less active in purchasing from fruit farmers. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples have loosened. As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the inventory removal rate is 14.06% [10] Group 7: Pigs - **Price Data**: From January 21 - 27, 2026, prices in Henan Kaifeng remained at 13.13, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.05 to 12.90, in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.10 to 13.07, in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.20 to 13.50, in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.15 to 13.35. The basis increased by 180 to 1845 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The weekend spot price first strengthened and then weakened. Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, but it is difficult to maintain high prices. The overall enthusiasm of small - scale farmers for slaughter is average. With the approaching Laba Festival, the demand in the north is supported. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may still be short - term supply - demand mismatches. The medium - term pressure remains, and there is support for a long - term inflection point. The futures market sentiment fluctuates greatly. Pay continuous attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies [10]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-27 备货需求逐步释放，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场分析 豆粕库存持续消耗，但仍明显高于历史同期，大豆库存同样维持高位。受到美豆提振的影响，国内豆粕价格短期 同步偏强运行，但巴西新季丰产压力仍存，随着未来新季大豆上市供应压力逐步释放，预计豆粕价格仍将偏弱运 行。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美收获情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2769元/吨，较前日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.65%；菜粕2605合约2269元/吨，较前 日变动+34元/吨，幅度+1.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M05+401，较前日变动-28；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+301，较前日变动-18； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M05+311，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2480元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差RM05+211，较前日变动+6。 近期市场资讯，1月23日，美国农业部公布的出口销售报告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: The corn 2603 contract reduced positions and adjusted, with prices falling first and then rising, showing a weak - oscillating trend. The 2605 and 2607 contracts followed the adjustment. Northeast corn prices are stable, and the selling price in the sales area is firm. Downstream stocking is cautious, and the market has no concentrated restocking. The 5 - month contract price is first weak and then strong, and the basis strengthens [2]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Brazilian high - yield expectations offset the positive sentiment of US soybean bio - fuel demand. US soybean inspection data declined. In China, protein meal rose slightly, with rapeseed meal stronger than soybean meal. Soybean meal inventory decreased for the third consecutive week. The strategy is a double - selling strategy, with a bearish - oscillating view [2]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil closed higher due to expected production cuts and strong export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% - 11.4% month - on - month. In China, palm oil rose by more than 1%, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil followed. The inventory pressure of domestic oils decreased marginally. The strategy is to sell put options, with a bullish - oscillating price trend [2]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated and adjusted. The spot price was stable. Short - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the spot price tends to be stable. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of funds and sentiment on the market [2]. - **Pigs**: Live hog futures continued to be weak. The supply increased, and the downstream was reluctant to accept high prices, leading to a decline in prices. Before the Spring Festival, peak - season demand may support prices. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see, and pay attention to the impact of farmers' sentiment on supply and market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Soybean**: In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased, and the weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons. As of January 16, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was about 4.26 million tons, and the estimated monthly crushing volume was about 8 million tons, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 900,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. The CNF price of US soybeans for February and March shipment is 473 US dollars/ton, 25 - 29 US dollars/ton higher than that of Brazilian soybeans [4]. - **Steel**: In December 2025, the crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The annual output was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The steel output in December was 115.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The annual output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [4]. - **Grain and GDP**: The national grain output in 2025 was 714.88 million tons, an increase of 8.38 million tons or 1.2% year - on - year. Corn output increased by 2.1%, and soybean output increased by 1.3%. The GDP in 2025 was 14.01879 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [5]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report shows the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs, but no specific data analysis is provided [7][9][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs, but no specific data analysis is provided [17][20][22][24].

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price is expected to be strong in the future due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and potential export tariff hikes in Indonesia [1][2]. - The cotton price adjustment space is limited as the expected reduction in planting area strengthens supply contraction expectations and downstream demand is resilient [1][5]. - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is rising steadily. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December, and concerns about Indonesian supply are rising. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 8600 - 8620 [2]. Two - Meal (Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal) - The rapeseed meal main 2605 contract continues to fall due to possible improvement in China - Canada economic and trade relations and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short on resistance levels. The soybean meal is supported by strong spot prices and rigid demand from breeding enterprises, and the 2605 contract's market may fluctuate [3]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract is still adjusting to digest long - profit taking pressure. The expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang strengthens supply contraction, and downstream demand is strong. The main trend of the upward movement remains unchanged. The strategy is to go long after the price stabilizes on dips [5]. Live Pigs - The live pig main 2603 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner. The出栏 pressure in January has decreased, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is in an upward trend. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 11715 - 11750 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner, supported by the expected consumption recovery at the end of the year. Sugar production in Guangxi has decreased year - on - year, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions [10]. Eggs - The egg main 2603 contract is rising steadily, boosted by the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The production capacity is gradually decreasing, and market trading is active. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 3010 - 3030 [11][13].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices may rise again due to downstream seasonal restocking after New Year's Day, and long - term price trends depend on import and domestic auction policies. Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the near future, and long - term prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - Egg prices could benefit in the second quarter if there is a concentrated culling of hens before Laba Festival. The key driver is the culling rhythm [6] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the medium - term due to consumer competition [9] - Short - term pig market sentiment is weak, and stage supply - demand mismatches may still exist in January. Long - term expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] - Short - term sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices, and may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 20 - unit change in蛇口 price, a - 18 change in basis, and a 20 change in trade profit. Starch basis decreased by 8, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are affected by policy and supply, with strong basis and potential for price increase due to downstream restocking. Starch prices are weak due to slow de - stocking, but may strengthen slightly later [3] - Long - term: Corn prices depend on import and auction policies, and starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 4: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, egg prices in some regions increased, with a - 16 change in basis, and slight changes in substitute prices [5] Market Analysis - The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of hens. Concentrated culling before Laba Festival may benefit second - quarter prices [6] Group 5: Apples Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, apple spot prices remained stable, basis changed, and inventory decreased slightly [8][9] Market Analysis - Short - term: The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere, but prices are firm, and the futures market may maintain high - level oscillations [9] - Medium - term: The market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to consumer competition [9] Group 6: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, with a - 35 change in basis [9] Market Analysis - Short - term: Market sentiment is weak after New Year's Day, but there may be supply - demand mismatches in January [9] - Long - term: Expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] Group 7: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, sugar spot prices changed slightly, basis increased by 2, import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10] Market Analysis - Short - term: Sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices [10] - Long - term: Prices may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] Group 8: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, cotton prices changed, import profit and other indicators also changed [10] Market Analysis - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [6] 2. Core Views - Cotton: 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease with a slight increase in ending stocks; US cotton has inventory pressure in the short - term, but is in a low - valuation range in the long - term; domestic cotton production increases, demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward [2] - Sugar: 25/26 global sugar production is abundant with an excess situation; short - term decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted; long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic; domestic sugar supply pressure remains, and short - and medium - term prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, European demand improves, domestic demand is insufficient but shows marginal improvement; short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,035 yuan/ton yesterday, up 180 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous day; 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton; as of January 3, 2025/26 Brazilian cotton planting was 31.2% complete, up 6.1 percentage points from the previous period and 0.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated upward yesterday; globally, 25/26 cotton production and demand both decreased, and US cotton inventory pressure increased. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly, sales progress accelerated, demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bullish. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there is a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Medium - long - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward, but short - term high - level callback risks should be watched out for [2] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,281 yuan/ton yesterday, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous day; Guangxi Nanning sugar spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar and molasses in December, a 2.8% increase from December 2024 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated and closed higher yesterday; globally, 25/26 sugar production is abundant with an excess situation. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and supply pressure remains [3] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward, and short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,596 yuan/ton yesterday, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous day; Shandong Chilean silver star softwood pulp spot price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import wood pulp spot market was mainly strong with individual fluctuations [4] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices were narrowly sorted yesterday. Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European demand continues to improve, while domestic demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and downstream demand is expected to increase marginally [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand may show a mild recovery. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the agriculture sector mainly fluctuated. Different agricultural products showed various trends, including price adjustments, low - level fluctuations, and price increases. Overall, the market was affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and macro - environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are undergoing corrective consolidation. Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats futures, with weak fundamental data. The macro - environment and industrial factors have a negative impact on vegetable oil prices. Overall, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider staged buying hedging after excessive declines [4] - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues have a weakening impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects vegetable oil prices negatively. South American soybean production is expected to be high, and domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient. The palm oil production area is in the off - season, but export demand is weak. Overseas rapeseed production is high, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The expectation of a good harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are fluctuating at a low level. The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Logic**: Internationally, South American weather is normal, and the market expects a good harvest of South American soybeans. US soybean exports face competition from South American soybeans. Domestically, before the festival, supply and demand are both weak. Oil mills' inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is not strong [5] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Purchase and sales are gradually recovering, and prices are fluctuating within a range. The overall price is under pressure but also has support, and it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a possible first - decline - then - rise trend [7][9][10] - **Logic**: Affected by the corn auction, the price once rose, but the overall fundamentals have no major contradictions. The launch of policy - based grain sources has a limited negative impact. In different regions, the supply and demand situations vary, and downstream demand and inventory also affect the price [9] 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: After the holiday, the demand drive weakens, and the futures price declines. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and in the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken [10][11] - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand after the New Year's Day holiday weakens. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, it can be considered bullish [13][14] - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment of commodities, natural rubber has a strong performance. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but the demand side is relatively weak after the price increase [14] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains a fluctuating trend. In the short - term, there is pressure, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][16] - **Logic**: The expectation of marginal improvement in butadiene fundamentals has become a market consensus. Although the current inventory is increasing, the market expects good prospects, and the downstream industry's demand is also rising [16] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16][18] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the new cotton is in the peak listing period, but the inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the apparent demand is increasing. Policy - wise, there is an expectation of a reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which drives the price up [16][18] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly and are still under pressure in the medium - term. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [18] - **Logic**: Globally and domestically, the sugar supply is increasing. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing, Thailand's production is delayed, and India's production is growing. In China, the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase [18] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market is dominated by funds and the macro - environment, and pulp futures fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [19] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include rising prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations of coniferous pulp mills, and high downstream paper production. Negative factors include difficulties in cost transfer of downstream paper and seasonal decline in demand [19] 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [20][21] - **Logic**: The market trend of double - glue paper has changed from falling to rising. The inventory pressure of paper mills has been relieved, and the supply is expected to be stable. Paper mills' price - increase plans may support the price in the short - term [21] 3.11 Logs - **View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate narrowly. From January to February, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [22] - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market has no obvious upward or downward drive. The supply pressure will be relieved in January and February, and the futures price has support at a certain range. The 03 contract has certain game characteristics [22] 3.12 Commodity Index - On January 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2345.23, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2684.12, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2272.17, up 0.21%. The agricultural product index on January 5, 2026, was 932.85, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.05%, a 1 - month increase of 0.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [182][184]