Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of DIY asset allocation for ordinary investors, suggesting that it can outperform actively managed funds and benchmark indices, as evidenced by a 6.23% return in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Advantages of DIY Asset Allocation - **Advantage 1: Unrestricted Investment Scope** DIY asset allocation allows investors to diversify across various asset classes without the constraints faced by mutual funds, which are limited by their contracts [5][6]. This flexibility enables investors to capitalize on different economic cycles and opportunities, such as stocks during economic upturns and bonds during downturns [8]. - **Advantage 2: Flexible Position Adjustment** Investors can adjust their asset allocation more freely compared to mutual fund managers, who face strict position limits. This flexibility allows for better risk management during market volatility [9][10]. - **Advantage 3: Aligned Interests** DIY investors do not face the same pressures as fund managers, such as short-term performance metrics and management fees tied to fund size. This allows for a focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to cater to market trends [11][12]. Group 2: Steps for Asset Allocation - **Step 1: Risk Assessment** The first step involves completing a risk assessment to determine the investor's risk tolerance, expected returns, and investment duration, which informs the optimal asset allocation [13]. - **Step 2: Create a Low-Correlation Asset Allocation Plan** A diversified portfolio should include assets with low correlation to mitigate risk. For example, a combination of bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and gold can provide a balanced approach [15][18]. - **Step 3: Initiate Regular Investment** After establishing the asset allocation plan, investors should engage in regular investments (dollar-cost averaging) to minimize emotional decision-making and benefit from market averages [23][24]. - **Step 4: Dynamic Rebalancing** Investors can manage their portfolios more dynamically, taking advantage of price discrepancies among low-correlation assets. This involves selling overvalued assets and buying undervalued ones, facilitated by alerts for rebalancing [25][26]. Group 3: Additional Services - The article mentions that using the proposed asset allocation method provides additional services such as monthly reports, real-time asset diagnostics, and personalized support, enhancing the investment experience [29]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The "three-part method" promotes a philosophy of long-term investment and asset allocation, focusing on diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve a balanced risk-return profile [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment journey, highlighting three major pitfalls and the lessons learned from them, ultimately advocating for a disciplined, diversified investment strategy that emphasizes index investing and dynamic rebalancing [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Pitfalls - Pitfall One: Speculative Traps - The author experienced significant losses during the "924 market" in 2024, where media hype led to a rush into the market, resulting in immediate losses after chasing high prices [2]. - Pitfall Two: Overestimating and Overinvesting - Initial small gains in U.S. stock investments turned into substantial losses after a major market drop in April 2025, emphasizing the danger of ignoring valuation safety margins [3]. - Pitfall Three: Illusory Diversification - The belief that holding multiple funds equated to risk diversification was proven wrong, as the portfolio was highly correlated, leading to extreme volatility [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The author developed a low-correlation asset allocation strategy after learning about asset correlation theory, which includes a 30% allocation to a bond index as a stabilizing force [4]. - The ultimate investment philosophy distilled from three years of experience is summarized as: "Index investing, all-weather strategy, dynamic rebalancing," which aims to embrace market beta returns while balancing risk [4][5]. - The proposed asset allocation includes 15% in A-share dividend low volatility, 15% in A-share cash flow index, 15% in S&P 500, 15% in NASDAQ 100, 8% in gold ETFs, and 2% in crude oil futures for inflation hedging [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of asset allocation in the context of the high volatility of the A-share market, emphasizing the need for diversified investment approaches to mitigate systemic risks [1]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article highlights various classic asset allocation models, such as the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio and the all-weather portfolio, which have been historically validated but are limited in domestic application due to investment target restrictions [1]. - The Snowball app offers a "three-part method" for asset allocation, allowing users to conduct risk assessments and receive intelligent recommendations for asset class ratios, which can be manually adjusted [3][9]. Group 2: Performance and Timing Issues - The article notes that while historical returns and maximum drawdowns of asset allocation strategies may appear favorable, actual performance can differ significantly, as evidenced by a tracked portfolio yielding only 5.48% over a year [11]. - It emphasizes that expected returns are positively correlated with asset selection and holding time, while the timing of purchases significantly impacts short-term experiences and returns [12][13]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The concept of dynamic rebalancing is introduced as a method to maintain target asset ratios and manage risk actively, rather than merely chasing returns [23]. - Key aspects of dynamic rebalancing include mean reversion during market fluctuations, proactive risk management, and enhancing long-term return stability and holding experience [24][25][26]. - The Snowball platform provides reminders for when and how to rebalance, offering clear guidance and explanations for asset adjustments, thereby improving the investment experience [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic rebalancing in asset allocation to maintain the intended risk and return profile of an investment portfolio amidst market fluctuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation and Market Dynamics - Asset allocation involves distributing funds across various asset types, such as stocks and bonds, to achieve specific investment goals [1]. - Market volatility can lead to a drift in the initial asset allocation, affecting the risk profile and potentially leading to missed opportunities or increased risk exposure [2][3]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing Strategy - Dynamic rebalancing is based on the principle of mean reversion, where asset prices tend to fluctuate around an average level over time [3]. - Without dynamic rebalancing, an investment portfolio may deviate significantly from its intended asset allocation, leading to unintended risk exposure [3][4]. Group 3: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio strategy allocates funds equally among four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash or short-term treasury bills, aiming for stable returns across different economic conditions [4]. - The initial allocation is 25% for each asset class, which is designed to perform well in varying economic environments [4]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - Data from 2014 to 2025 shows that portfolios with dynamic rebalancing have similar long-term annualized returns compared to those without rebalancing, but with significantly lower maximum drawdowns [7][8]. - The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, is higher for rebalanced portfolios, indicating better performance under similar risk conditions [8]. Group 5: Implementation of Dynamic Rebalancing - The article introduces a dynamic rebalancing signal system, which monitors key asset performance indicators and provides guidance on adjusting asset allocations [9][10]. - This system helps investors maintain discipline in their investment strategies, reducing emotional decision-making during market fluctuations [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges investors face during bull markets, emphasizing that many investors do not believe in the onset of a bull market until it is well underway, leading to missed opportunities and potential losses [4][5]. Group 1: Investor Behavior in Bull Markets - Many investors, having experienced bear markets, develop a mindset that every purchase is a mistake and every rebound is a last chance to escape, causing them to remain under-invested in the early stages of a bull market [5]. - As the bull market progresses, investors gradually shift their belief to thinking that every sale is a mistake, leading to overexposure and potential losses when the market corrects [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility - Bull markets are characterized by significant volatility, which can lead to investor losses even when they initially believe they are in a rising market [6][7]. - Investors may experience substantial gains, only to see those gains evaporate during market corrections, leading to emotional distress and poor decision-making [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A sound investment strategy involves proper asset allocation and a focus on stable investments to navigate through market fluctuations [10][11]. - Maintaining a balanced portfolio with a significant allocation to fixed-income assets can provide a safety net, reducing overall volatility and helping investors avoid the pitfalls of trying to time the market [12].