Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a solution to the challenges faced by investors, advocating for a structured approach to investment through the "Snowball Three-Point Method" which focuses on diversification and long-term strategies [3][6]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Many investors fall into common traps such as believing they can time the market perfectly, leading to poor decision-making and losses [5]. - Data indicates that most investors fail to outperform the funds themselves, not due to poor fund selection, but because they struggle to hold onto their investments [5]. Group 2: Snowball Three-Point Method - The core principle of the Snowball Three-Point Method is summarized in twelve words: "Do not predict, only respond, diversify investments, and win passively" [8]. - The method includes three types of diversification: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [9]. Group 3: Asset Diversification - Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) have distinct return characteristics and low correlation, which helps in risk hedging [10]. - Historical correlation analysis from 2003 to 2023 shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities have low correlations, indicating the benefits of diversified asset allocation [11]. Group 4: Market Diversification - Global economic conditions lead to varying asset performance across different markets, which can further smooth out portfolio volatility [12]. - Correlation analysis from 2021 to 2024 shows that different global indices exhibit low to negative correlations, reinforcing the need for market diversification [13]. Group 5: Time Diversification - Regular investment through methods like dollar-cost averaging can mitigate the risks associated with market timing [14]. - Time diversification allows investors to achieve an average market cost over time, reducing the impact of volatility [15]. Group 6: Dynamic Adjustment and Rebalancing - Initial asset allocation should not be static; adjustments should be made based on changing asset performance and market conditions [16]. - Dynamic rebalancing helps maintain the original asset allocation ratios, facilitating a buy-low, sell-high strategy [17][18]. Group 7: Practical Implementation of the Three-Point Method - The implementation involves three steps: risk assessment to customize investment plans, selecting funds from a curated pool, and ongoing dynamic rebalancing [20][22][26]. - The article provides examples of asset allocation strategies for different risk profiles, illustrating how to construct a personalized investment portfolio [21]. Group 8: Half-Position Strategy - The half-position strategy balances market exposure and risk, allowing for flexibility in responding to market fluctuations [29]. - This strategy involves maintaining a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income, which helps manage both risk and opportunity [30]. Group 9: Specific Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended allocation includes 50% in fixed income (with a focus on domestic bonds), 45% in equities (with a mix of domestic and international), and 5% in commodities, primarily gold [32][34][35]. - The rationale for these allocations is based on current market conditions, expected returns, and risk considerations [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relevance of "Dollar-Cost Averaging" (DCA) in investment strategies, particularly in the context of the "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" which emphasizes asset, market, and timing diversification [6][30]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" includes asset diversification (stocks, bonds, commodities), market diversification (A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks), and timing diversification (DCA) [6]. - The author has implemented a weekly DCA strategy and has made seven investments so far [7]. - The decision to set up DCA is more related to the investor's financial situation and risk tolerance rather than the characteristics of the investment itself [8]. Group 2: Perspectives on DCA - Different investors have varying opinions on whether high-volatility products are better suited for DCA or for swing trading [9][10]. - Some believe that stable products should be invested in through DCA, while others argue for lump-sum investments due to their long-term upward trends [11]. - The article emphasizes that the same investment can be approached differently based on individual investor perspectives [13]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The concept of "Dynamic Rebalancing" is introduced as a method to maintain the desired asset allocation over time, which is distinct from DCA [18]. - Dynamic rebalancing addresses the risk management aspect of the "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" by adjusting the asset mix back to the original allocation [19]. - The author posits that DCA primarily addresses psychological aspects of investing, helping investors manage their emotions during market fluctuations [20][29]. Group 4: Conclusion - There are no strict rules mandating the use of DCA; investors can choose to invest in a lump sum or in multiple smaller amounts [28]. - DCA and dynamic rebalancing can coexist, allowing for gradual investment followed by rebalancing after a set period [28]. - Ultimately, DCA is viewed as a tool for managing investor psychology rather than a method for maximizing returns [29].

Global Core Risks - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, are significant risks affecting global markets, leading to increased oil and gold prices and higher supply chain costs [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's policies and the dollar cycle have profound impacts on global financial markets; prolonged high interest rates could suppress valuations of A-share growth stocks, while fluctuations in the dollar affect foreign capital inflows [2][4] - The strength of China's economic recovery is crucial for the A-share market, with weak real estate and consumption potentially pressuring cyclical stocks, while emerging industries like renewable energy and AI may present structural opportunities [4] Safe Asset Allocation - Gold is highlighted as a key safe-haven asset, with investors encouraged to consider gold ETFs for liquidity and gold stocks for potential upside, particularly during geopolitical crises or currency devaluation [5] - High-dividend assets serve as a defensive tool against market volatility, with banks and utilities providing stable cash flows and low valuations, making them suitable for conservative investors [6] - Government bonds and interest rate bonds are considered low-risk havens, with options for short-term liquidity management through reverse repos and long-term holdings via bond ETFs [7] - Essential consumer goods and pharmaceuticals are identified as defensive sectors with strong demand characteristics, benefiting from brand loyalty and demographic trends [8] A-share Adaptation Strategies - A core-satellite strategy is recommended for portfolio construction, with a core allocation of 60% in high-dividend assets, gold ETFs, and government bonds for stability, while 40% can be flexibly allocated based on market conditions [9] - Investors should focus on policy-driven industry rotations, with potential benefits for sectors like machinery and consumer goods from government incentives, while avoiding high-debt real estate and export-dependent sectors [10] - Dynamic rebalancing of the investment portfolio is advised, adjusting allocations based on market movements, such as increasing high-dividend assets during market downturns [11] Summary and Practical Recommendations - In the context of global risks, geopolitical conflicts and Federal Reserve policies are critical external variables that require ongoing monitoring [12] - A suggested asset allocation includes 20% in gold, 30% in high-dividend assets, and 10% in government bonds to create a safety net against market risks [12] - Conservative investors are encouraged to focus on sectors like electricity, coal, and utilities, while aggressive investors may consider technology and resource sectors during market corrections [12] - Flexibility in response to market changes is essential, with adjustments based on Federal Reserve actions and inflation trends to optimize asset allocation [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of taking profits in investment, highlighting that without realizing gains, profits are not truly earned [3][4] - The article discusses the challenges of profit-taking, particularly in value investing, where investors struggle to determine when to sell, often leading to poor decision-making [5][8] - It introduces the concept of asset allocation as a solution to the difficulties of profit-taking, suggesting that diversifying investments across multiple asset classes can simplify decision-making [9][10] Group 2 - The article explains dynamic rebalancing as a strategy that allows investors to manage their portfolios without needing to make complex decisions about individual asset prices [10][12] - It outlines the benefits of dynamic rebalancing, stating that it can generate positive returns even in sideways markets by capturing price fluctuations between different assets [13] - The article provides methods for executing dynamic rebalancing, including time-based and price-based approaches, to maintain the desired asset allocation [16][18][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of effective diversification, recommending a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities to enhance the chances of successful rebalancing [14] - It suggests that investors can utilize tools like the "three-part method" for asset allocation, which helps in assessing the correlation between different assets [14][24] - The article concludes by promoting the use of automated reminders and services to assist investors in maintaining their asset allocation strategy [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of DIY asset allocation for ordinary investors, suggesting that it can outperform actively managed funds and benchmark indices, as evidenced by a 6.23% return in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Advantages of DIY Asset Allocation - **Advantage 1: Unrestricted Investment Scope** DIY asset allocation allows investors to diversify across various asset classes without the constraints faced by mutual funds, which are limited by their contracts [5][6]. This flexibility enables investors to capitalize on different economic cycles and opportunities, such as stocks during economic upturns and bonds during downturns [8]. - **Advantage 2: Flexible Position Adjustment** Investors can adjust their asset allocation more freely compared to mutual fund managers, who face strict position limits. This flexibility allows for better risk management during market volatility [9][10]. - **Advantage 3: Aligned Interests** DIY investors do not face the same pressures as fund managers, such as short-term performance metrics and management fees tied to fund size. This allows for a focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to cater to market trends [11][12]. Group 2: Steps for Asset Allocation - **Step 1: Risk Assessment** The first step involves completing a risk assessment to determine the investor's risk tolerance, expected returns, and investment duration, which informs the optimal asset allocation [13]. - **Step 2: Create a Low-Correlation Asset Allocation Plan** A diversified portfolio should include assets with low correlation to mitigate risk. For example, a combination of bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and gold can provide a balanced approach [15][18]. - **Step 3: Initiate Regular Investment** After establishing the asset allocation plan, investors should engage in regular investments (dollar-cost averaging) to minimize emotional decision-making and benefit from market averages [23][24]. - **Step 4: Dynamic Rebalancing** Investors can manage their portfolios more dynamically, taking advantage of price discrepancies among low-correlation assets. This involves selling overvalued assets and buying undervalued ones, facilitated by alerts for rebalancing [25][26]. Group 3: Additional Services - The article mentions that using the proposed asset allocation method provides additional services such as monthly reports, real-time asset diagnostics, and personalized support, enhancing the investment experience [29]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The "three-part method" promotes a philosophy of long-term investment and asset allocation, focusing on diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve a balanced risk-return profile [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment journey, highlighting three major pitfalls and the lessons learned from them, ultimately advocating for a disciplined, diversified investment strategy that emphasizes index investing and dynamic rebalancing [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Pitfalls - Pitfall One: Speculative Traps - The author experienced significant losses during the "924 market" in 2024, where media hype led to a rush into the market, resulting in immediate losses after chasing high prices [2]. - Pitfall Two: Overestimating and Overinvesting - Initial small gains in U.S. stock investments turned into substantial losses after a major market drop in April 2025, emphasizing the danger of ignoring valuation safety margins [3]. - Pitfall Three: Illusory Diversification - The belief that holding multiple funds equated to risk diversification was proven wrong, as the portfolio was highly correlated, leading to extreme volatility [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The author developed a low-correlation asset allocation strategy after learning about asset correlation theory, which includes a 30% allocation to a bond index as a stabilizing force [4]. - The ultimate investment philosophy distilled from three years of experience is summarized as: "Index investing, all-weather strategy, dynamic rebalancing," which aims to embrace market beta returns while balancing risk [4][5]. - The proposed asset allocation includes 15% in A-share dividend low volatility, 15% in A-share cash flow index, 15% in S&P 500, 15% in NASDAQ 100, 8% in gold ETFs, and 2% in crude oil futures for inflation hedging [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of asset allocation in the context of the high volatility of the A-share market, emphasizing the need for diversified investment approaches to mitigate systemic risks [1]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article highlights various classic asset allocation models, such as the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio and the all-weather portfolio, which have been historically validated but are limited in domestic application due to investment target restrictions [1]. - The Snowball app offers a "three-part method" for asset allocation, allowing users to conduct risk assessments and receive intelligent recommendations for asset class ratios, which can be manually adjusted [3][9]. Group 2: Performance and Timing Issues - The article notes that while historical returns and maximum drawdowns of asset allocation strategies may appear favorable, actual performance can differ significantly, as evidenced by a tracked portfolio yielding only 5.48% over a year [11]. - It emphasizes that expected returns are positively correlated with asset selection and holding time, while the timing of purchases significantly impacts short-term experiences and returns [12][13]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The concept of dynamic rebalancing is introduced as a method to maintain target asset ratios and manage risk actively, rather than merely chasing returns [23]. - Key aspects of dynamic rebalancing include mean reversion during market fluctuations, proactive risk management, and enhancing long-term return stability and holding experience [24][25][26]. - The Snowball platform provides reminders for when and how to rebalance, offering clear guidance and explanations for asset adjustments, thereby improving the investment experience [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic rebalancing in asset allocation to maintain the intended risk and return profile of an investment portfolio amidst market fluctuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation and Market Dynamics - Asset allocation involves distributing funds across various asset types, such as stocks and bonds, to achieve specific investment goals [1]. - Market volatility can lead to a drift in the initial asset allocation, affecting the risk profile and potentially leading to missed opportunities or increased risk exposure [2][3]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing Strategy - Dynamic rebalancing is based on the principle of mean reversion, where asset prices tend to fluctuate around an average level over time [3]. - Without dynamic rebalancing, an investment portfolio may deviate significantly from its intended asset allocation, leading to unintended risk exposure [3][4]. Group 3: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio strategy allocates funds equally among four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash or short-term treasury bills, aiming for stable returns across different economic conditions [4]. - The initial allocation is 25% for each asset class, which is designed to perform well in varying economic environments [4]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - Data from 2014 to 2025 shows that portfolios with dynamic rebalancing have similar long-term annualized returns compared to those without rebalancing, but with significantly lower maximum drawdowns [7][8]. - The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, is higher for rebalanced portfolios, indicating better performance under similar risk conditions [8]. Group 5: Implementation of Dynamic Rebalancing - The article introduces a dynamic rebalancing signal system, which monitors key asset performance indicators and provides guidance on adjusting asset allocations [9][10]. - This system helps investors maintain discipline in their investment strategies, reducing emotional decision-making during market fluctuations [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges investors face during bull markets, emphasizing that many investors do not believe in the onset of a bull market until it is well underway, leading to missed opportunities and potential losses [4][5]. Group 1: Investor Behavior in Bull Markets - Many investors, having experienced bear markets, develop a mindset that every purchase is a mistake and every rebound is a last chance to escape, causing them to remain under-invested in the early stages of a bull market [5]. - As the bull market progresses, investors gradually shift their belief to thinking that every sale is a mistake, leading to overexposure and potential losses when the market corrects [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility - Bull markets are characterized by significant volatility, which can lead to investor losses even when they initially believe they are in a rising market [6][7]. - Investors may experience substantial gains, only to see those gains evaporate during market corrections, leading to emotional distress and poor decision-making [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A sound investment strategy involves proper asset allocation and a focus on stable investments to navigate through market fluctuations [10][11]. - Maintaining a balanced portfolio with a significant allocation to fixed-income assets can provide a safety net, reducing overall volatility and helping investors avoid the pitfalls of trying to time the market [12].