商品价格波动

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广发期货日评-20250529
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 05:43
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].
商务预报:5月12日至18日食用农产品和生产资料价格略有下降
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-05-23 01:27
Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.4% from the previous week, with the average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables at 4.17 yuan per kilogram, down 1.7%. Notable declines include lettuce, cucumber, and green beans, which fell by 5.6%, 5.0%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with white strip chicken and eggs dropping by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Meat wholesale prices overall declined, with pork at 20.71 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3%, and beef down 0.2%, while lamb prices remained stable [1] - The wholesale prices of six types of fruits showed slight fluctuations, with watermelon, banana, citrus, and apple prices decreasing by 3.1%, 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively, while grapes increased by 3.7% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices experienced a slight increase, with grass carp, silver carp, and crucian carp rising by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Coal prices experienced a slight decline, with thermal coal, coking coal, and No. 2 smokeless block coal priced at 755 yuan, 971 yuan, and 1170 yuan per ton, down by 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid decreasing by 0.3%, while methanol, soda ash, and polypropylene increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices showed slight volatility, with 92-octane gasoline and 95-octane gasoline both decreasing by 0.2%, while 0-octane diesel increased by 0.2% [2] - Steel prices saw a slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and ordinary medium plates priced at 3615 yuan, 3861 yuan, and 3806 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices overall increased, with urea rising by 0.3% and the price of compound fertilizers decreasing by 0.1% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices were predominantly up, with aluminum and copper increasing by 2.4% and 0.7%, while zinc decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 2.5% and 0.5% respectively [2]
商务预报:5月5日至11日食用农产品和生产资料价格小幅下降
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-05-14 06:36
Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.7% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kilogram, down 3.0%, with significant declines in tomatoes, zucchini, and green beans by 9.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.7% and 0.3% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices slightly decreased, with pork at 20.77 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4%, while lamb and beef also fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable overall, with some fish types experiencing minor declines and others seeing slight increases [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil down 0.2%, while canola oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits increased slightly, with grapes, apples, and pears rising by 2.0%, 1.6%, and 1.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials generally decreased, with methanol, sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene falling by 2.0%, 1.9%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0 diesel down by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals mainly declined, with aluminum and zinc decreasing by 1.2% and 0.1%, while copper saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2] - Coal prices experienced slight declines, with thermal coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and coking coal priced at 770 yuan, 1177 yuan, and 980 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices slightly retreated, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3462 yuan, 3670 yuan, and 3599 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with slight increases, as the price of compound fertilizer remained unchanged while urea rose by 0.1% [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.2% and 0.2% respectively [2]