Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is stabilizing due to the implementation of various supportive policies, with a focus on high-quality projects in core cities to maintain a steady new housing market [1][2]. Market Performance - In the first half of the year, both new and second-hand housing transactions increased year-on-year, indicating overall market stability [2]. - The report from the China Index Academy shows that the new housing market in core cities has remained stable since 2025, with a slight weakening in the second quarter compared to the first [2]. - The sales area and sales revenue of newly built commercial housing from January to May decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, remaining consistent with the previous months [2]. - The price decline of newly built residential properties has continued to narrow, with first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities seeing a reduction in price decline by 0.4, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points respectively in May [2]. Future Outlook - The new housing transaction volume is expected to decline in the third quarter, but the year-on-year decline will narrow due to last year's low base, with a potential increase in the fourth quarter [3]. - There will be a continued divergence between cities, with core first-tier and second-tier cities expected to stabilize and recover, particularly with the introduction of new residential projects [3]. Policy Measures - Various cities have implemented targeted policies to stabilize the real estate market, with Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces actively promoting housing consumption and financing mechanisms [4]. - Xi'an has introduced measures to promote the development of both new and second-hand housing markets, including tax incentives and streamlined property transactions [6]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of local governments taking responsibility and implementing effective policies to maintain market stability [6]. Housing Fund Policy Adjustments - Many regions have optimized housing provident fund policies to expand usage and facilitate home purchases, such as allowing fund withdrawals for second-hand home down payments [7]. - The adjustments aim to enhance liquidity for homebuyers, thereby stimulating housing demand and market activity [7][8]. Overall Market Sentiment - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that while policies to stabilize the real estate market are showing positive effects, the market is still in an adjustment phase, requiring ongoing efforts to improve market confidence and supply-demand relationships [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in key cities is experiencing a divergence, with the second-hand housing market underperforming compared to the new housing market, primarily driven by a "price for volume" strategy and increased market observation due to expectations of policy relaxation [1][3][8]. Market Performance - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 16,815 yuan per square meter in May, with a month-on-month increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. In contrast, the average price of second-hand residential properties was 13,794 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.24% [3]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in key cities has generally decreased month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year growth rate, while the listing volume remains high [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for second-hand homes, particularly in school districts, has decreased after the "golden three silver four" period, contributing to a stagnant price movement in the second-hand market [3]. - New homes are becoming more attractive to buyers due to favorable marketing strategies and higher usable area ratios, leading to increased competition for second-hand homes [5][6]. Listing Trends - As of May 2025, the listing volume of second-hand homes in 100 cities reached 2.718 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. This increase is attributed to rising replacement demand among homeowners and the entry of improved new properties into the market [6]. - The willingness of some homeowners to lower prices has led to noticeable adjustments in second-hand home prices [6]. Buyer Sentiment - Many buyers are anticipating further policy relaxations to reduce purchasing pressure, with expectations for localized policy adjustments in first-tier cities [8]. - The adjustment of property transaction tax policies is expected to facilitate the listing of newer and better-quality homes, positively impacting the second-hand housing market [8]. Market Outlook - The activity level of the second-hand housing market is crucial for the sustained recovery of the overall real estate market, with many cities seeing monthly transaction volumes of second-hand homes surpassing those of new homes [8].

Group 1 - The real estate market in key cities has entered a stable phase after a brief period of activity, with a focus on the construction of "good houses" and the introduction of new regulations [1][2] - In May, major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou saw an increase in both second-hand and new housing transactions, while Shenzhen experienced a slight decline month-on-month but still showed year-on-year growth [2] - The introduction of new regulatory projects has positively impacted short-term sales, with high-demand for new housing projects that optimize design and increase usable area [2][3] Group 2 - Despite a 10.8% year-on-year decline in sales for the top 100 real estate companies in the first five months, land acquisition increased by 28.8%, indicating a more cautious and focused strategy on high-certainty projects [4] - As the mid-year performance push approaches, real estate companies are expected to enhance their marketing and promotional efforts to accelerate cash flow [4][6] - The policy environment remains supportive, with expectations for further reductions in mortgage rates and tax rates, as well as measures to stimulate the market in various cities [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with a notable increase in the sales decline for the top 100 real estate companies in May [1][7] - New home transaction area shows a narrowing month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month and shows an expanding year-on-year decline [1][7] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both increased month-on-month, while showing a year-on-year decrease [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of May 24 to May 30, new home transaction area increased by 6.4% month-on-month but decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a total of 276.7 million square meters transacted across 40 cities [19][24] - The transaction area for second-hand homes decreased by 10.9% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, totaling 179.2 million square meters across 18 cities [47][54] - New home inventory in 12 cities reached 8,789 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [41][48] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transacted across 100 cities was 1,003.1 million square meters, down 34.7% month-on-month and 27.0% year-on-year, while the total land price increased by 53.6% month-on-month to 25.64 billion [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,556.1 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 135.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.5% [61][66] 3. Policy Overview - Local policies have been introduced to stimulate housing consumption, including measures such as reducing down payment ratios and tax exemptions for housing transactions [3][98][99] - Specific initiatives include the implementation of a "trade-in" model for housing and the expansion of housing provident fund usage [3][99] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a mixed performance, with new home sales showing a rebound in first and second-tier cities while third and fourth-tier cities are struggling [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant decline in April's year-on-year sales for new homes, with a drop of 18% compared to the previous year, and a more pronounced decline of 52% in third and fourth-tier cities [3][4]. - The government is implementing policies to stimulate demand and improve market conditions, including local measures such as "buying a house with a school placement" in Guangzhou [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - In the week of April 26 to May 2, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new home sales volume of 249.3 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 20.1% [4]. - Year-on-year, April's new home sales in 34 cities fell by 18%, with first and second-tier cities down 13% and third and fourth-tier cities down 52% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Sales - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 101.2 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 29.7% [13]. - April's cumulative second-hand home sales were 571.5 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.2% [13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of April 26 to May 2, 2025, 15 key cities launched 131 million square meters of new homes, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.94 [22]. - The total available housing area in these cities was 89.58 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has implemented new regulations to enhance residential quality, including minimum ceiling heights and improved sound insulation standards [32]. - The total land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies reached 360.8 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [32]. - Local governments are introducing various measures to support homebuyers, including adjustments to public housing fund contributions and the issuance of housing vouchers [33][35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of constructing high-quality housing ("good houses") to enhance the living standards and satisfaction of the populace, which is also crucial for stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth [1][2] - The implementation of the "Residential Project Standards" starting May 1 aims to set clear regulations for the construction, use, and maintenance of residential projects, including requirements for ceiling heights, elevator installations, sound insulation, and daylight standards [1][2] - The renovation of old urban residential areas is a significant focus, with plans to start 54,000 projects in 2024, exceeding the annual target, highlighting the potential for improvements in elderly-friendly modifications, childcare facilities, and smart construction [2][3] Group 2 - The construction of "good houses" is viewed as a systematic project that requires high standards, good design, quality materials, and excellent service to support the entire industry chain's value upgrade [2][3] - Under the "city-specific policies" approach, a nationwide housing upgrade initiative is being implemented, with nearly 10 provinces actively working on establishing a high-quality housing construction system through various measures [3]

每到一个时间节点，总是会传出这样的小作文，北京要放开限购了。今年至少有三波了，第一波元旦，第二波，3月5日，第三波，5月1日。我从来不会拿狼 来了去否认这样的话，因为我坚信，狼来了喊多了，终究会变成真的。 我们能做的就是要有所防备，不可大意。兼听则明偏信则暗。 有些是有人炒作，有些并非空穴来风，虽然最后没有来，但不代表没有在路上。 这两天又都在问最近北京限购会不会放开？给大家分析分析。确实最近有小道消息在传，这次都说了要因城施策调减限制性措施，北京肯定也会有动作。像 广州都全域放开限购了，北京也已经在部分郊区松动。包括深圳也在传，去年这个时候同样在传。 我们再看最近4月25号官方传递的信号，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。适时降准降息。4月28 日，央行再次强调，将适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕。 北京调研中提出，当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场仍有很大的发展空间，要进一步释放市场潜力，着力推动"好房子"建设，加快构建房地产发展新模 式，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。 现有的潜力释放也只能通过部分改善以及没有资格的人群去优化调整，在我看来，松绑限制性政策是大势所 ...

4 . 取消限售 ：自2 0 2 5年3月3 1日起，南京全市商品住房取得不动产权登记证后即可交易。 作 者丨唐韶葵 编 辑丨卜羽勤 取消此前2年限售，商品房取得不动产权登记证后即可上市交易；加大青年人刚性购房政策支 持；进一步满足居民置换改善需求. . . . . . 3月3 1日， 南京市举行促进房地产市场平稳健康发展政策发布会，推出七方面举措（简称"房 七条"） ，涉及取消限售、住房"以旧换新"与房票安置、公积金等层面。具体内容如下： 1 . 支持青年刚性购房 ：引导银行推出低首付、低息等特色金融产品，降低4 5岁以下青年购房 门槛，各区还能叠加人才房票等政策，南京银行和江苏银行已率先行动。 2 . 满足居民 置 换 改 善 ： 优 化 " 以 旧 换 新 " ， 政 府 、 企 业 补 助 ， 金 融 机 构 、 经 纪 机 构 助 力 ， 开 展"买新助卖旧"，首批1亿元补助，按购房合同金额1%发放。 3 . 加快被征收群众安置 ：库存商品房纳入房票超市，加大金融支持，推行"全城通兑"和"电 子房票"。 对此，同策研究院研究总监宋红卫指出，南京"房七条"有其新的政策亮点，比如公积金全家 联合提取做首 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The government work report emphasizes the goal of stabilizing the real estate market and preventing systemic risks, with specific measures to promote a "stop decline and stabilize" approach [3][4] - The report indicates that the real estate sector plays a crucial role in stabilizing the macro economy, suggesting that the policy will continue to be accommodative this year [4] - Demand-side policies will focus on adjusting restrictive measures based on city-specific conditions, with expectations for further relaxation of purchase restrictions and tax adjustments to stimulate demand [5] - Supply-side measures include controlling new land supply and supporting the acquisition of existing properties, with local governments given more autonomy in the acquisition process [6] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The real estate sector has shown a relative performance of -4% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 7% [2][3] Demand Side - Policies will be implemented to reduce restrictive measures, including lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, which are at historical lows [5] - The government plans to implement 1 million units of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which will directly increase sales of new and second-hand homes [5] Supply Side - The report highlights a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with local government special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year [6] - The land supply will continue to be controlled, but the quality of new land will improve, potentially enhancing project profitability [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality developers with strong financing and land acquisition capabilities, as well as leading second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [8]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Buy (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The government work report emphasizes the goal of stabilizing the real estate market and preventing declines, highlighting the importance of real estate in maintaining macroeconomic stability [3][4] - Specific measures include adjusting restrictive policies based on city conditions, promoting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, and controlling new real estate supply [5][6] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The real estate sector has shown a relative return of 3% over the past month, but a negative return of 12% over the past three months and a slight negative return of 4% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [2][3] Demand Side - Policies will continue to relax restrictions, including lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, which are at historical lows. The report anticipates further loosening of purchase restrictions in various cities [5] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to implement 1 million urban village renovations and dilapidated housing improvements, which will directly increase sales of new and second-hand homes [5] Supply Side - The report indicates a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with local government special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, supporting land acquisition and stock housing purchases [6] - The report maintains a stance on controlling new land supply, which is expected to continue to shrink, but with better locations and relaxed price limits, project turnover and profit margins are likely to improve [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality developers with strong financing and land acquisition capabilities, as well as leading second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active stock housing transactions. The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [8]