Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Financial Street Forum focuses on monetary policy, liquidity mechanisms for non-bank institutions, and the importance of maintaining financial stability while addressing credit issues for individuals affected by the pandemic [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is exploring mechanisms to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific circumstances to maintain market stability and prevent moral hazards [2]. - PBOC will continue to implement a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to ensure short-term, medium-term, and long-term liquidity arrangements, thereby keeping social financing conditions relatively loose [3]. - The PBOC plans to resume open market operations for government bonds, which is seen as a crucial step to enhance the financial functions of government bonds and improve market stability [5]. Group 2: Credit Repair and Individual Support - PBOC is researching policies to support individuals in repairing their credit records, particularly for those who have defaulted due to uncontrollable circumstances like the pandemic but have since repaid their debts [4]. - A proposed one-time personal credit relief policy aims to prevent the display of certain default information in credit systems for individuals who meet specific criteria, with implementation expected early next year [4]. Group 3: Virtual Currency and Financial Regulation - PBOC will continue to combat domestic virtual currency operations and speculation while closely monitoring the development of foreign stablecoins, which pose potential financial risks [6][7]. - The central bank emphasizes the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to better cover systemic financial institutions and assess risks from international economic and financial markets [8].

记者｜杜川 编辑｜瑜见 10月27日，在2025金融街论坛年会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，去年，人民银行落实中央金融 工作会议部署，在二级市场开始国债买卖操作。这是丰富货币政策工具箱、增强国债金融功能、发挥国 债收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币政策与财政政策相互协同的重要举措，也有利于我国债券市场改 革发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。 实践中，人民银行根据基础货币投放需要，兼顾债券市场供求和收益率曲线形态变化等情况，灵活开展 国债买卖双向操作，保障货币政策顺畅传导和金融市场平稳运行。 今年初，考虑到债券市场供求不平衡压力较大、市场风险有所累积，人民银行暂停了国债买卖。目前， 债市整体运行良好，人民银行将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作。 ...

10月27日，在2025金融街论坛年会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，去年，人民银行落实中央金融工 作会议部署，在二级市场开始国债买卖操作。这是丰富货币政策工具箱、增强国债金融功能、发挥国债 收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币政策与财政政策相互协同的重要举措，也有利于我国债券市场改革 发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。实践中，人民银行根据基础货币投放需要，兼顾债券市场供求和收 益率曲线形态变化等情况，灵活开展国债买卖双向操作，保障货币政策顺畅传导和金融市场平稳运行。 今年初，考虑到债券市场供求不平衡压力较大、市场风险有所累积，人民银行暂停了国债买卖。目前， 债市整体运行良好，人民银行将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作。（第一财经） ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is expected to continue its oscillation and structural trends as the long holiday approaches, with economic data showing a continuous decline impacting cyclical sectors negatively, while growth styles remain resilient supported by industry trends and performance outlooks [3][10][13] Debt Market Analysis - The debt market is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a focus on credit bond coupon income. Current economic data has not provided substantial positive signals, leading to a weak market sentiment. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within the 1.75%-1.80% range, suggesting a strategy of range trading and consideration of high-rated 3-5 year credit bonds [3][10][13] Equity Market Analysis - The equity market is anticipated to experience continued oscillation and structural trends. The cyclical sectors are underperforming due to declining economic data, necessitating additional policy support. In contrast, growth styles, particularly in sectors like new energy and technology, are expected to perform well, with the upcoming October meetings likely to provide policy catalysts [3][10][13] Weekly Market Review - The report highlights that the A-share market is in a phase of oscillation, with the index showing slight adjustments while the ChiNext remains strong. The market is characterized by a rotation towards growth sectors such as new energy and AI, which are performing relatively well [10][11][19] Important Events Recap - Key events include discussions between Chinese and U.S. trade representatives aimed at resolving economic issues, and the announcement of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to influence market sentiment positively [9][10] Asset Allocation Performance - The domestic macro multi-asset model has achieved a year-to-date return of 10.27%, outperforming its benchmark by 4.50%. The global macro multi-asset model has a year-to-date return of 8.41%, also exceeding its benchmark by 1.64% [20][23]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has increased liquidity injections into the market to stabilize the financial environment and support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos, 1,500 million yuan in treasury cash deposits, and 6,000 million yuan in buyout reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 11,923 million yuan [1] - Next week, there will be 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities of 2,800 million yuan, 2,870 million yuan, 4,185 million yuan, 4,870 million yuan, and 3,543 million yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - Additionally, 3,000 million yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature on Thursday, September 25 [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Industry insiders suggest that the central bank's recent actions to increase liquidity will help maintain a stable financial environment and reinforce the foundation for economic recovery [1] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to inject liquidity into the market, with a possibility of increasing MLF operations this month and the potential resumption of government bond trading [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that government bonds are a key tool for coordinating monetary and fiscal policies, and increasing the issuance of government bonds is essential under a more proactive fiscal policy [1] - The central bank should enhance open market operations involving government bonds to provide positive guidance to financial institutions and markets [1] - Government bond transactions reflect the central bank's active cooperation with fiscal policy and indicate the characteristics and focus of monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - Government bond yields are determined by competitive behaviors among market participants, reflecting the supply and demand conditions in the bond market and influencing future trading decisions [2] - The active trading of government bonds and the yield curve significantly impact future bond issuance and the pricing trends in various financial markets, making government bonds a crucial tool for policy coordination [2] - It is recommended to improve the regulatory framework for government bond trading to mitigate risks, especially in the context of international financial risks affecting the domestic bond market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with rising yields on government bonds attributed to recent inflation data and a strong equity market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 10, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.81%, marking a return above 1.8% for the first time in five months [1]. - The 30-year government bond yield increased by over 2 basis points, reaching a new high since its issuance [1][3]. - The 30-year bond futures saw a decline of 0.82%, hitting a new low since March 24 [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in bond prices is linked to the August Producer Price Index (PPI), which fell by 2.9% year-on-year, the first contraction since March [3]. - The strong performance of the equity market, particularly since early July, has shifted investor preference from bonds to stocks, contributing to the sell-off in government bonds [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by policy expectations, liquidity, and macroeconomic data [4]. - There is speculation that the central bank may resume government bond trading operations to stabilize prices and manage interest rates, especially in the current environment where equities are performing well and bonds are under pressure [5]. - Analysts suggest that improved coordination between fiscal and monetary policies could mitigate the impact of increased government bond supply on the bond market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with yields on government bonds rising sharply due to inflation data and a strong equity market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 10, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.81%, marking a return above 1.8% for the first time in five months [1]. - The 30-year government bond yield increased by over 2 basis points, reaching a new high since its issuance, while the 30-year futures contract fell by 0.82%, hitting a low not seen since March 24 [1][3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in bond prices is attributed to two main factors: the recent inflation data showing an 8-month low in PPI, which decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the strong performance of the equity market since early July [3]. - The strong equity market has led to a shift in investor sentiment, with funds moving from bonds to stocks as market risk appetite increases [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond futures market is showing a downward trend, influenced by policy expectations, liquidity, and macroeconomic data [4]. - There is speculation that the central bank may restart government bond trading operations to stabilize bond prices and manage interest rate curves, especially in the context of increasing government bond supply [5]. - Analysts suggest that improved market supply-demand dynamics could create conditions for the resumption of government bond trading operations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to soon resume government bond trading operations to stabilize bond prices and enhance the flexibility of monetary policy tools [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Conditions and Expectations - The recent meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC has heightened expectations for the resumption of government bond trading operations [1] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's potential resumption of bond trading is influenced by the recent pressure on bond prices and the need to prevent market turmoil similar to that seen in late 2022 [1][3] - The current tightening of the funding environment, coupled with a peak in government bond issuance, is a significant consideration for the PBOC's decision to restart bond trading [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC's previous bond trading operations, which began in August of last year, effectively maintained a reasonable yield curve and stabilized market interest rates [2] - Following a pause in bond trading operations in January, the PBOC utilized reverse repos to supplement medium- and long-term funding needs, indicating a shift in monetary policy tools [5][6] - The PBOC is expected to combine various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond trading, to ensure liquidity in the financial market [5][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Recent trends show that institutional investors are buying short-term government bonds in anticipation of the PBOC's resumption of trading, which has reduced downward pressure on bond prices [4] - Large state-owned banks have reportedly accumulated significant amounts of short-term government bonds to meet the anticipated demand following the resumption of trading [7]

Report Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate as it awaits further confirmation of monetary policy. Subsequently, it is expected to break through the downward space and approach the low point. Although the liquidity in July may remain relatively loose, from the perspective of coordinating fiscal policies and managing market expectations, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur during this window period. The amplitude and rhythm of the curve opening up space require reasonable assessment [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Suppression, Bond Market First Weak then Strong, Curve Slightly Steepened - This week (June 23 - June 27), the cross - quarter and the stock - bond "seesaw" were the main factors influencing the bond market. The stock market's strength in the first half of the week suppressed the bond market, but the central bank's increased liquidity injection and insurance replenishment provided some support. In the second half of the week, the bond market recovered as the stock - bond linkage effect weakened and the stock market declined, along with uncertain industrial enterprise profit data [1][8]. - On a daily basis, the bond market showed different trends each day. By June 27, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds changed by - 1, + 0.4, + 0.7, and + 1.2 BP respectively compared to June 20, and the curve steepened slightly. Most yields of major - term certificates of deposit (CDs) increased [8]. 2. Cross - quarter Overall Secure, Bank Liability - side Pressure Controllable - This week, the overall funding situation was stable, with increased fluctuations approaching the quarter - end. The 7 - day funding rate rose significantly, and the government bond issuance scale was large in the first half of the week. However, the central bank's intention to support was obvious, with reverse repurchase injections exceeding 2 trillion yuan. CD issuance rates fluctuated slightly, and large - bank lending remained stable around 4 trillion yuan, indicating that cross - quarter funds were generally secure and bank liability - side pressure was relatively controllable [2][13]. - The 7 - day funding rate center increased, and the DR001 still ran below the policy rate. As of June 27, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 changed by - 0.53 and + 0.58 respectively compared to the previous week, while those of DR007 and R007 changed by + 12.75 and + 24.03 BP respectively. The phenomenon of funding stratification became more prominent, and the funding pressure on non - bank institutions increased during the cross - quarter period [13]. 3. The "Actions" and "Inactions" of Central Bank Monetary Policy - In June, market discussions about whether the central bank would restart treasury bond trading intensified. Since June, large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds (especially 1 - 3Y) increased year - on - year and month - on - month, which made the market more likely to associate this with the restart of treasury bond trading operations [19]. - The central bank suspended treasury bond purchases in 2025 mainly due to the improvement of the government bond supply - demand relationship and to avoid creating strong market expectations. After the market adjustment in the first quarter, an expert view in the Financial Times on April 13 suggested that the central bank might buy new treasury bonds in the secondary market if the interest - rate increase pressure from expansionary fiscal policies weakened policy effectiveness [3][25]. - In the first half of 2025, the bond market's funding situation was volatile. Monetary policy showed more characteristics of dynamic equilibrium and contingency decision - making among multiple goals. The central bank's shift from "restraint" to "support" in liquidity injection corresponded to the change in policy goal priority from "risk prevention" to "stable growth" [4][29]. - Currently, the central bank's "inactions" may include: improved flexibility and precision in liquidity regulation in 2025, with June smoothly passing multiple liquidity tests; large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds may not directly equal the central bank's purchases; the central bank is still concerned about bond market interest - rate risks; and the government bond supply pressure decreased in June, with the next peak likely in August - September. Therefore, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur in July, and the market may fluctuate in the short term [30][35]. 4. Next Week's Focus - June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI for June, Eurozone's M1/M2/M3 for May, Germany's CPI for June. - July 1: Eurozone's CPI for June, US ISM manufacturing PMI for June. - July 2: US ADP employment for June. - July 3: US non - farm payrolls for June, US ISM non - manufacturing PMI for June. - July 4: EU PPI for May [38][39].