Core Insights - The company, founded by Mr. Mao Ge Ping in 2000, focuses on integrating art and products to create a competitive cosmetics brand with a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, including 2.304 billion yuan from color cosmetics, 1.429 billion yuan from skincare, and 0.152 billion yuan from makeup training, achieving a net profit of 0.881 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Brand Positioning and Development - The company is positioned as a high-end brand, leveraging Mr. Mao's extensive experience as a renowned makeup artist to enhance brand perception and marketing efforts [2] - The brand has a high customer retention rate, with an overall repurchase rate of 30.9% and a higher offline repurchase rate of 34.9% in 2024 [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company has expanded its distribution channels significantly, with 409 offline counters by the end of 2024, including 378 direct-operated counters, and online sales accounting for 47.8% of total product sales [2] - Color cosmetics remain the core product line with sales of 2.304 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.04%, while skincare sales reached 1.429 billion yuan, up 23.21% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Financial Projections - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.16 billion yuan, 1.53 billion yuan, and 1.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of approximately 37, 28, and 22 times based on current market valuation [3]

Core Insights - The company Lin Qingxuan, despite a high gross margin of 82.5% on its Camellia oil priced at 749 yuan, faces serious issues including false advertising, hollow R&D, and a halved valuation [2][3] - Regulatory scrutiny has intensified, with the Beijing Chaoyang District Market Supervision Bureau imposing fines for misleading claims about product efficacy [2][8] - The company is under pressure to go public due to multiple agreements with investors, leading to significant share sell-offs by founders and early investors [3][6][7] Group 1: Financial Performance and Valuation - Lin Qingxuan's valuation peaked at 3.175 billion yuan during its B round financing in 2021 but plummeted to 1.559 billion yuan by August 2024 [4][6] - The company has seen significant cash-outs by its founder and early investors, totaling 226 million yuan from August 2024 to May 2025 [3][6] - The financial data reveals a troubling reliance on a few core products, with nearly 40% of revenue coming from a single item [3][15] Group 2: Marketing vs. R&D - The marketing expenditure for 2024 was 365 million yuan, while R&D investment was only 30.4 million yuan, indicating a 12-fold disparity [10][11] - Over the years, the company has spent 760 million yuan on marketing but only 71.2 million yuan on R&D, which is less than 3% of total revenue [10][11] - The workforce is heavily skewed towards sales and marketing, with 85.2% of employees in these roles and only 64 in R&D [11] Group 3: Product Dependency and Market Challenges - The Camellia oil product accounted for 37% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting a lack of diversification in the product lineup [15] - The company has struggled to establish a foothold in lower-tier markets, with sales in these areas only reaching 60% of those in first-tier cities [15] - The franchise model has faced setbacks, with the number of franchise stores decreasing from 35 to 32, and average revenue per store significantly lower than that of direct-operated stores [15] Group 4: Regulatory and Market Pressures - The company has a history of regulatory violations, including a recent fine for false advertising regarding its anti-aging claims [8][9] - The upcoming deadline for a public listing in December 2026 poses a significant risk, as failure to meet this could result in substantial financial liabilities for the founder [19][20] - New regulations on cosmetic efficacy claims are tightening, which could further impact the company's marketing strategies [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of domestic beauty brands in China is highlighted, with the IPO of Plant Doctor adding significant momentum to this trend [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Plant Doctor has been established for over 30 years in the Chinese cosmetics industry, focusing on the development, production, and sales of high-altitude plant skincare products [3] - The brand positions itself with the slogan "High-altitude plants, pure beauty," leveraging unique advantages of "Chinese brand, Chinese ingredients" [3] Group 2: Product and Market Position - Plant Doctor has developed a comprehensive product matrix, including various high-altitude plant series such as "Dendrobium Tightening and Smoothing," "Centella Asiatica Soothing Care," and "Purple Ganoderma Multi-effect Anti-aging," covering a wide range of skincare products [3] - The company has a significant offline presence with 4,328 chain stores by the end of 2024, showcasing its channel advantage [5] - Plant Doctor has received multiple industry recognitions, including being named the second in the beauty and body care sector by the China Chain Store and Franchise Association for 2022 and 2023, and ranking first among cosmetics companies [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 2.12 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.16 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of approximately 158 million, 230 million, and 243 million yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 24% [5] - The consistent profitability enhances the foundation for Plant Doctor's IPO [5] Group 4: Research and Development - Plant Doctor employs a dual approach of independent and collaborative research and development, with a structure of "one center, five bases," which is a core competitive advantage [7] - As of May 31, 2025, the company holds 212 patents, including 59 invention patents, demonstrating its strong R&D capabilities [7] - R&D investments from 2022 to 2024 were approximately 73.77 million, 75.88 million, and 66.33 million yuan, representing 3.48%, 3.53%, and 3.08% of revenue respectively, ensuring a stable foundation for future innovation [7] Group 5: IPO Significance - The funds raised from the IPO will enhance Plant Doctor's overall strength and are expected to drive further achievements in the beauty industry [9] - The successful IPO will mark a significant milestone for the brand and provide new insights and momentum for the development of the domestic beauty industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Plant Doctor Cosmetics Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO, with plans to issue up to 26.67 million shares, accounting for at least 25% of the total share capital post-issue [2] Financial Performance - The company projects revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, 2.150 billion yuan, and 2.155 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with net profits of 168 million yuan, 229 million yuan, and 242 million yuan for the same years [2] - The gross profit margins for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 are expected to be 55.22%, 60.34%, and 58.90% respectively [2] Product Segmentation - The main revenue driver is the water and lotion cream segment, projected to generate 1.218 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 56.52% of total revenue [3] - The essence and essence oil segment is expected to contribute 465 million yuan, representing 21.59% of total revenue, while face masks account for 16.28% [4] Sales Channels - The company employs a mixed sales model, primarily through distribution (66.72%) and supplemented by direct sales (33.28%) [8] - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 4,328 offline chain stores, with 3,830 authorized specialty stores and 498 direct stores [4] Market Position - Plant Doctor holds a 0.8% market share in the Chinese cosmetics market, ranking 9th among domestic brands [8] - The company’s revenue from the distribution model in 2024 is projected to be 1.366 billion yuan, accounting for 63.37% of total revenue [8] R&D and Competitive Edge - The company maintains a stable R&D expense ratio of 3% to 3.5% over the past three years, which is higher than several listed competitors [9] - Collaboration with the Kunming Institute of Botany has led to the development of a star product featuring Dendrobium orchid [9] Challenges - The company faces inventory pressure, with stock increasing from 192 million yuan at the end of 2023 to 223 million yuan at the end of 2024 [9] - Regulatory penalties on some stores due to violations have raised concerns about potential impacts on sales and performance [9]

Group 1 - The beauty industry in China is witnessing a shift in the top 10 revenue rankings, with Proya leading at 10.778 billion, marking a significant milestone as the first domestic beauty brand to surpass 10 billion in revenue [1][8] - The entry of Mao Geping into the top 5 and the drop of Shanghai Jahwa from the top 10 indicates a dynamic change in the competitive landscape [1][3] - The revenue threshold for entering the top 10 has increased to nearly 2.5 billion, reflecting a more competitive environment compared to previous years [1] Group 2 - The top five companies have experienced a turnover, with companies like Shiseido and Juzhibio showing over 30% growth, while others like Huaxi and Beitaini have faced declines or stagnant profits [3] - Proya's main brand revenue ceiling has been raised to 8.581 billion, with a notable gap of nearly 3 billion between it and the next highest brand [8] - Han Shu has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing 5 billion in revenue, reaching 5.591 billion with an impressive growth rate of 80.9% [8] Group 3 - Online sales channels are crucial for the success of domestic beauty brands, with Proya, Shiseido, and Water Sheep achieving over 90% of their revenue from online sales [14] - Despite the strong online performance, the offline sales channels have seen a decline, with companies like Mao Geping and Shiseido managing to achieve double-digit growth in offline sales [15][14] - The overall sales structure indicates a need for brands to balance their online and offline strategies to sustain growth [11] Group 4 - Research and development (R&D) investments among the top 10 companies have increased, with total R&D spending rising from 1.559 billion to 1.753 billion [19] - Companies like Huaxi and Beitaini are leading in R&D expenditures, with Huaxi investing 466 million, representing 8.68% of its total revenue [19][20] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with an emphasis on scientific innovation and new product development becoming essential for maintaining market position [21][22] Group 5 - The beauty industry is expected to face challenges in 2024, with increased competition and a more complex market environment [21] - The competitive dynamics are shifting, as companies like Shiseido leverage innovative marketing strategies to secure their positions [22] - The future of the industry will require continuous evolution and adaptation from all players to remain relevant and competitive [23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.778 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.04%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.552 billion yuan, a 30% increase [3][7] - The company has reached a significant milestone by becoming the first domestic beauty brand to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue [7] - The online channel revenue for 2024 is projected to be 10.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.68%, accounting for 95.06% of the main business revenue [7] - The company has implemented a "Double Ten Strategy" aiming to rank among the top ten global cosmetics companies in the next decade [8] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 71.39% and a net margin of 14.71% [3] - The sales expenses for 2024 are expected to increase by 29.93% to 5.161 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 47.88% [3] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to be 2.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.13%, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, reflecting a 28.87% increase [4] - The projected revenue and net profit for 2025-2027 are 12.307 billion yuan, 18.05 billion yuan, 14.089 billion yuan, and 21.09 billion yuan respectively [6][8] Market Position - The company has established a diverse brand portfolio catering to different consumer needs, with significant growth in its skincare and makeup segments [7][8] - The company has introduced several high-profile endorsements to enhance its market presence, including celebrities like Liu Yifei and Yi Yangqianxi [8]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic beauty brands are gaining competitive advantages in the market through high cost-performance ratios and refined operations [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - In early 2024, the retail sales of cosmetics in China are projected to be 435.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [2]. - Despite the overall market stagnation, several domestic beauty companies have reported impressive performance, with Proya (603605.SH) achieving a revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.04% [2][3]. - Other established beauty companies such as Shiseido (02145.HK), Maogeping (01318.HK), and Marubi (603983.SH) also reported revenue growth exceeding 20% [2]. Group 2: Online Sales Strategy - Leading beauty companies are increasingly focusing on online sales, with Proya's online sales ratio exceeding 95% and sales surpassing 10 billion yuan [4]. - Shiseido's online sales ratio is over 90%, with sales exceeding 6 billion yuan, while Marubi's online sales ratio is above 85% [4]. - In the e-commerce landscape, Douyin has emerged as a significant player, with total beauty sales reaching between 2.5 billion to 5 billion units and total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Quarterly Performance - In Q1 2025, the retail sales of cosmetics reached 114.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6]. - Proya reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 2.359 billion yuan, up 8.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up 28.87% [6]. - Marubi achieved a Q1 2025 revenue of 847 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.01%, with a net profit of 135 million yuan, up 22.07% [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The management of Juzhi Biological aims for a revenue growth of 25% to 28% and a net profit growth of 21% to 24% for the 2025 fiscal year [7]. - The cosmetics and medical beauty industry is expected to show stable growth driven by policy support and consumer recovery [7]. - Domestic beauty brands are focusing on reducing traffic costs and enhancing digital marketing strategies to ensure measurable business growth [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, exceeding expectations. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 23.59 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year. The company maintains a strong position as a leading domestic beauty brand, with a reasonable valuation and potential for growth from new product launches [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 107.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, and a net profit of 15.52 billion yuan, up 30.0%. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 23.59 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.90 billion yuan [6][9]. - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 124.99 billion yuan, 141.47 billion yuan, and 156.72 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 18.63 billion yuan, 21.68 billion yuan, and 24.54 billion yuan [6][9]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 71.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, and for Q1 2025, it was 72.8%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points [7]. Brand and Product Development - The company is accelerating the launch of new products, with several new series introduced in late 2024 and early 2025, including the optical bottle series and various skincare products. The brand has also engaged high-profile endorsements to enhance its marketing efforts [8][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, highlighting the potential for domestic brands to gain market share and improve competitive dynamics [4]. Core Insights - The domestic beauty market is expected to see an optimization in competitive dynamics, driven by a rise in domestic consumption and a retreat of international brands due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market during the period from April 3 to April 11, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.5%, which is better than the Shenwan A Index's decline of 1.9 percentage points [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector showed resilience, with key indices performing better than the overall market, indicating a positive trend for domestic brands [5][6]. - The report notes that the retail sales growth for cosmetics in January and February 2025 was 4.4%, outperforming the overall retail sales growth of 4.0% [23]. Market Trends - According to Euromonitor data, the market for domestic skincare and makeup brands is on the rise, with significant improvements in market share for brands like Proya and Natural Hall, which have entered the top ten in market share [9][35]. - The report anticipates that domestic brands will continue to benefit from the trend of rising domestic consumption, especially as international brands face challenges [10][35]. Company Performance Forecasts - For Q1 2025, several companies are expected to report positive growth: - Up Beauty Co. is projected to see a revenue and net profit increase of 10% year-on-year [11]. - Marubi is expected to achieve a revenue increase of 40% and a net profit increase of 35% [11]. - Proya is forecasted to have a revenue increase of 8% and a net profit increase of 10% [11]. - The report highlights that companies like Giant Biological and Mao Geping are also expected to see significant growth, with revenue and net profit both projected to increase by 40% and 25% respectively [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand matrices and high growth potential, such as Up Beauty Co., Proya, and Marubi, which are well-positioned to leverage the e-commerce boom [14]. - It also suggests keeping an eye on companies like Shanghai Jahwa and Betaini, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [14]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the entry of four prominent researchers into Proya, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation and talent development within the company [26]. - The competitive landscape in the medical beauty sector is evolving, with new products and innovations expected to drive growth and market share for companies like Jinbo Biological and Huaxi Biological [29][30].

暴利行业持续分化洗牌。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 正所谓，爱美之心，人皆有之。如今，美容护理已越发融入人们的日常生活中，其市场需求持续扩 大。国家统计局数据显示，我国化妆品类零售总额在过去二十多年里呈现稳步提升，2023年达到4,14 2亿元，较2011年增长接近3倍。 但2024年1-11月的情况却有些不同，化妆品类零售总额罕见出现负增长，同比下滑了1.3%，莫非化妆 品生意不好做了？ （来源：Choice终端，制表：市值风云APP） 这组数据背后，其实意味着两层含义，其一是化妆品需求的小幅减少，其二则是行业内卷越发严重。 消费需求越发向头部品牌集中，质量不佳、规模较小、生产不良的尾部企业正逐渐被淘汰出局，一场 席卷整个行业的大洗牌或许正在进行。 动荡过后，仍能留在牌桌上的企业必定各有各的看家本领，今天我们便从美容护理板块前十大市值公 司来一探究竟。 参考申万行业分类及截至2024年12月31日的市值排名，前十大公司分别为爱美客（300896.SZ）、珀 莱雅（603605.SH）、华熙生物（688363.SH）、稳健医疗（300888.SZ）、锦波生物（832982.BJ）、 贝泰妮（30095 ...