2026年多省预计以卖地收入为主的政府性基金收入实现增长 房地产市场持续低迷之下，地方政府卖地收入（即土地出让收入）四连降。 近日，财政部公开数据显示，2025年地方政府性基金预算本级收入中的国有土地使用权出让收入（下称土地出让收入）41518亿元，比上年下降14.7%。这 是自2022年以来连续第四年这一收入出现两位数降幅。与2021年地方土地出让收入峰值（8.7万亿元）相比，2025年地方土地出让收入减少了约4.6万亿元， 降幅达到52.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，房地产市场深度调整直接导致地方土地出让收入持续下滑，这减少地方可用财力，加大地方偿债压力。预计 2026年土地出让收入延续下滑态势，但降幅有望收窄。 土地财政难以为继 罗志恒告诉第一财经，土地出让收入持续下行，源于房地产市场深度调整，根本上由于高质量发展要求下经济发展模式变迁。 罗志恒分析，土地出让收入持续下行对地方政府产生三大影响：一是地方可用财力减少。土地出让收入是地方政府性基金预算的主要来源，其下滑直接导致 可用财力收缩，加剧财政紧平衡态势。二是地方政府债务偿还压力加剧。许多地方政府债务依赖土地收入作为债务还款来源，收 ...

中国经济丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 房价回暖之前，消费何处掘金？ ——消费第二曲线系列之一 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 通过研究房价与消费的关系，我们得到 3 个核心结论：1）当前房价下行可能仍对消费有压制 作用，但影响集中在东南沿海地区。2）当前国内仍处在居民缩表前期，但区域分化大。中部、 西部、东北地区消费受缩表影响小，即便房价下行，居民消费也仍可能随经济景气复苏率先改 善。3）消费表现更好的区域，服务消费复苏势头良好，消费表现更弱区域，服务消费增速也相 对有韧性。地产周期后半段，服务消费强度或持续高于耐用品消费。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 房价回暖之前，消费何处掘金？ 2] ——消费第二曲线系列之一 [Table_Summary2] 当前，为什么需要观察房价与消费的关系 宏观层 ...

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 财政支出降幅收窄 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 全年收支未达目标。回顾 2025 年全年的财政收支，首先，税收收入明 显改善，尤其是增值税、个人所得税和企业所得税，是公共财政收入端的 重心；其次，财政支出侧重民生领域，基建类支出占比趋降；再次，支出 节奏前置，年末进度落后，全年预算短支；最后，土地财政持续低迷且波 动较大，对广义财政收入构成拖累。2025 年广义财政收入、支出增速分别 为-2.9%、3.7%，单独看 12 月当月的表现，2025 年 12 月广义财政收入较 上月回落 13.3 个百分点至-18.5%，广义支出增速较上月回升 1 个百分点至 -0.7%。收入端来看，12 月税收走弱受到高基数效应和经济放缓的影响，土 地出让收入对广义财政持续构成制约；支出端方面，融资前置导致年底后 劲略显不足，仅基建相关支出有明显改善。 财政依旧前置发力。展望 2026 年，一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定， 同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"， 随着物价有望企稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支" 的效果或更 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese real estate market is facing significant challenges, and while experts have historically been pessimistic, some are now labeling it as a "perpetual sunrise industry" or "everlasting pillar industry" [2] - The real estate bubble is a relative concept, with the core issue being the reliance on land finance, which has inflated land prices and consequently housing prices, leading to a high income-to-housing price ratio [4] - Current estimates suggest that there are approximately 370 billion square meters of housing in China, with urban residents averaging over 40 square meters per person, indicating a substantial housing stock [4] Group 2 - Experts believe there is still room for housing price increases despite the average living space of 40 square meters, highlighting a lack of systematic thinking in the analysis of the market [6] - Comparatively, the average housing area in the U.S. is 67 square meters, and despite higher prices, the U.S. has not experienced a bubble due to significantly higher average incomes [6] - Current housing price ratios indicate that Shanghai's price is 38.5 times the average income, while New York's is 11.0 times, suggesting that the market is not as favorable as some experts claim, but there is an expectation for favorable policies to emerge by 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The economist Ma Guangyuan argues that most high housing prices in China are reasonable, with only a few cities experiencing excessively high prices that lead to issues in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Housing Price Dynamics - The price formation mechanism in China's real estate market has its internal logic, driven by rapid urbanization and significant population migration to first-tier and core second-tier cities, resulting in high housing demand and limited supply due to scarce land resources [3] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen attract a large number of high-quality talents due to their superior educational, medical, and employment resources, which contributes to the rising housing prices reflecting the agglomeration effect of these resources [3] Group 2: Affordability Issues - The housing price-to-income ratio in many hot cities has exceeded international warning levels, making it nearly impossible for ordinary working-class families to afford a standard home, particularly in cities like Shenzhen, where the ratio has surpassed 40 [5] - This extreme housing price situation indicates a significant disconnect from residents' actual purchasing power, leading to market distortions [5] Group 3: Financial and Policy Implications - The intertwining of land finance and financial risks is a deeper issue in the housing market, with local governments heavily reliant on land sale revenues, which contributes to rising land prices and, consequently, housing prices [7] - The fluctuation of property prices as a key collateral directly impacts the stability of the financial system, posing systemic financial risks if housing prices were to drop significantly [7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Ma Guangyuan's metaphor of "sick cities" suggests the need for differentiated and precise regulatory strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, advocating for strict purchase and loan limits in cities with bubble risks while maintaining stable policies in cities with reasonable prices [9] - Recognizing real estate as not only an economic issue but also a significant livelihood concern, high housing prices contribute to social anxiety, affecting young people's decisions on marriage and family planning, as well as compressing other consumer spending due to mortgage burdens [11] Group 5: Perspective on Housing Market - Ma Guangyuan's views, while somewhat biased, offer a new perspective on China's housing market, emphasizing the importance of nuanced analysis rather than simplistic criticism or defense, as different cities have varying development stages, resource endowments, and population structures that influence housing price formation and rationality [13]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax collection, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][3][18] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while the expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [5] - In November, the broad fiscal expenditure showed a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.5 percentage points compared to October, while the broad fiscal revenue fell by 5.2%, further declining by 4.6 percentage points from October [2][6] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is partly due to base disturbances and the ongoing drag from land finance [11][19] - The government fund revenue in November saw a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, although the decline was narrowed by 2.6 percentage points compared to October [24][29] - The general fiscal expenditure budget completion rate in November was 8%, lower than the five-year average of 8.4% [38] Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan local special bond limit and the implementation of financial tools have become important supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November [15][49] - The government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, significantly improving from a negative growth in October [38][49] Future Fiscal Strategy - The fiscal revenue strategy for 2026 may focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and addressing local fiscal difficulties while encouraging local governments to actively manage debts [18][19]

Overview of Equity Finance - Equity finance has rapidly expanded in scale, becoming a crucial method for local governments to enhance fiscal revenue and support industrial development[4] - In 2024, China's general public budget revenue, government fund budget revenue, and state capital operation budget revenue are projected to be CNY 21.97 trillion, CNY 6.21 trillion, and CNY 0.68 trillion, with growth rates of 1.3%, -12.2%, and 0.6% respectively[5] Regional Distribution and Investment Trends - By the end of 2024, a total of 2,178 government guidance funds have been established nationwide, with a total target scale of CNY 12.84 trillion, reflecting a 25% increase from CNY 6.16 trillion in 2021[9] - The proportion of equity investment-related expenditures in total fiscal expenditures increased from approximately 0.99% in 2021 to 1.46% in 2024, indicating a growing weight of equity finance in the fiscal system[9] Case Studies of Different Cities - Hefei, as a technology innovation city, has established a fund matrix exceeding CNY 156 billion, focusing on new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, achieving significant returns through strategic investments[16] - Foshan, a manufacturing cluster city, has created a fund system with a total scale of no less than CNY 1.2 trillion, focusing on advanced manufacturing and technology upgrades, with over 60% of investments in these areas[17] - Yulin, a resource-based city, has developed a fund cluster of nearly CNY 10 billion, focusing on green transformation and product value enhancement in traditional resource industries[19] Challenges and Recommendations - Challenges include unclear identification of industrial advantages, insufficient market-oriented operations, and imbalances between risks and returns[20] - Recommendations for improvement include establishing a scientific evaluation system for industrial advantages, enhancing market-oriented operational mechanisms, and perfecting risk-return balance mechanisms[21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perceptions of wealth and financial stability among different demographics in China, highlighting the significant increase in savings despite a general feeling of financial distress due to declining real estate values [1][2][11]. Group 1: Wealth Perception and Real Estate Impact - Many high-income families have experienced a drastic reduction in net worth due to falling property values, leading to increased financial pressure and a shift in spending behavior [4][12]. - A typical high-income family in Nanjing saw their property values halved, resulting in a significant increase in their loan-to-asset ratio, which heightened their financial stress [4]. - The perception of wealth has shifted from feeling affluent to facing a mid-life crisis as income stagnates or declines, causing individuals to become more cautious with their spending [4][12]. Group 2: Savings Trends - Since 2022, there has been a rapid increase in household savings, while loan growth has been minimal, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [5][8]. - The net savings in China have surged dramatically, with an increase of 42 trillion yuan in just four years, surpassing the total savings accumulated over the previous 70 years [9]. - This increase in savings is not necessarily indicative of a wealthier population but rather reflects a general reluctance to spend and invest due to economic uncertainty [11][19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rise in savings without corresponding consumption can lead to reduced investment opportunities and job losses, further exacerbating economic stagnation [11][22]. - The article suggests that while some individuals have profited from investments in sectors like technology, the overall sentiment among the population remains one of financial distress [12][22]. - The disparity in financial situations among different groups highlights a divided economic landscape, where some thrive while many struggle [22].

Group 1 - The core issue in the Chinese real estate market is the significant oversupply of housing, with 600 million existing homes that could accommodate 6 billion people, while new constructions continue to add at least 14 million units annually [1][9] - Developers are trapped in a debt cycle, compelled to continue building to secure loans from banks, as their sales performance declines and they face liquidity crises [3][4] - Local governments encourage developers to acquire land and build homes due to their reliance on land finance, which directly impacts public spending and local GDP growth [6][4] Group 2 - There is a strong investment demand in the real estate market, with many individuals treating property as a speculative asset rather than for personal use, driven by low bank interest rates and rising living costs [7][4] - The investment nature of the real estate market complicates the supply-demand relationship, necessitating measures like property taxes to curb speculative buying and stabilize the market [7][9] - The current state of the real estate market reflects a disconnect between actual housing needs and investment-driven supply, highlighting the need for structural changes to promote healthy market development [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant disparity in China's fiscal situation, with a notable decline in land sales revenue juxtaposed against a substantial increase in government budget expenditures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Land Sales and Revenue - From January to October, revenue from state-owned land use rights amounted to 24,982 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [2]. - The decline in land sales revenue is a trend rather than a one-off event, with projections indicating a 44% drop from the peak of 87,000 billion yuan in 2021 to 48,699 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Government Expenditures - National government budget expenditures reached 80,892 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 15.4% [3]. - The increase in expenditures is primarily attributed to the need for special funds to address issues arising from real estate company defaults and to repay local debts, which were previously managed through land sales [10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The current fiscal situation reflects a broken cycle where the traditional model of land finance (selling land to fund infrastructure and real estate) is no longer viable, leading to a structural imbalance in revenue and expenditure [9][10]. - The article suggests that the focus should shift from merely deflating the real estate bubble to preventing systemic risks and avoiding a hard landing for the economy [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of the real estate market is expected to rely on short-term financial support, mid-term reforms, and long-term national strategies [13]. - Cities that successfully cultivate new economic engines will thrive, while those that fail to adapt may face fiscal challenges, indicating a deep connection between urban economic health and real estate prices [14].