地方债净融资

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地方债周报:6月地方债发行节奏展望-20250526
CMS· 2025-05-26 01:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending May 26, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: The issuance volume of local government bonds increased this week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance volume was 248.5 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 105.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 142.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The proportion of long - term bond issuance decreased. The 10 - year bonds had the highest issuance proportion (33%), and bonds with a term of 10 years and above accounted for 75%, a decrease from last week [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: Special refinancing bonds worth 25.1 billion yuan were issued this week. As of now, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.6291 trillion yuan [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds narrowed compared to last week, reaching 11bp. The 30 - year bonds had the highest spread at 18.4bp. Except for the 1 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms narrowed [1][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: The funds raised from new special bonds in 2025 have mainly been allocated to cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.6% compared to 2024 [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volume in April, the total planned issuance volume for the second quarter is expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan, with 672.7 billion yuan and 855.1 billion yuan planned for May and June respectively [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: The 30 - year and 15 - year local government bonds had favorable secondary spreads. The 30 - year and 15 - year bonds had relatively high spreads of 20.1bp and 18.9bp respectively. The 30 - year bond's secondary spread was at a high historical percentile of 89% over the past three years [4][35]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased this week. Anhui, Sichuan, and Zhejiang had relatively high turnover rates. The total trading volume was 436 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.86%. Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Anhui had large trading volumes of 42.6 billion yuan, 40.4 billion yuan, and 35.6 billion yuan respectively, and their turnover rates were all above 1.6% [5][40].
地方债周报:年初以来专项债主要投向哪里-20250511
CMS· 2025-05-11 14:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of May 11, 2025, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume. It also provides an outlook on the issuance plan for the second quarter of 2025 and the trends in the use of funds for special-purpose bonds [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bond issuance reached 105.5 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 38.3 billion yuan and net financing of 67.2 billion yuan. The issuance of new general bonds was 0 yuan, new special-purpose bonds was 100.2 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds was 4.9 billion yuan, and refinancing special-purpose bonds was 0.4 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (36%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 77%, an increase from last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 8%, 14%, 17%, 36%, and 11% respectively, with the issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increasing by about 9 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds was 0 yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, with a total amount of 1,598.9 billion yuan. Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hubei, and Shandong are expected to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 86.9 billion yuan, 80.8 billion yuan, and 77.6 billion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 14.8bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 23bp. Except for the 5 - year and 7 - year local government bonds, whose weighted average issuance spreads narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. There was significant regional differentiation, with Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, etc. having relatively high weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 17bp, while Liaoning had a lower spread [1][25]. - **Use of Raised Funds**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - issued special - purpose bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 6.7% compared to 2024 [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in April, the total expected issuance in the second quarter is 2.1 trillion yuan. The planned issuance amounts for May and June are 677 billion yuan and 745.2 billion yuan respectively. The planned issuance amounts of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the second quarter are 1,100.4 billion yuan and 1,015 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 197.3 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 26.1 billion yuan and net financing of 171.1 billion yuan, an increase of 135.3 billion yuan compared to this week [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 15 - year and 10 - year local government bonds had favorable secondary spreads, and the secondary spread of 10 - year bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 10 - year bonds were 23.2bp and 19.8bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30 - year bonds was relatively high at 94%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions were relatively high [4][34]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 291.7 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.58%. Jiangsu, Hunan, and Shandong had large trading volumes, with 35.3 billion yuan, 27.5 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates in Hunan, Gansu, Jiangsu, etc. were all higher than 1.1% [5][39].