地缘战略
Search documents
国际观察|不止资源:美国觊觎格陵兰岛的操作与盘算
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-23 12:45
"我们必须得到它" "我们需要格陵兰岛,是为了国家安全。我们必须得到它。"特朗普22日告诉媒体记者。 此前一天,特朗普宣布任命路易斯安那州州长杰夫·兰德里为美国格陵兰岛特使,称其将推动美国相关 利益。任命后,兰德里声称要让这一丹麦自治领地成为"美国的一部分"。 不止资源:美国觊觎格陵兰岛的操作与盘算 新华社记者刘品然 林昊 刘赞 高调任命美国格陵兰岛特使、宣称"必须得到格陵兰岛"……美国总统特朗普近来在格陵兰岛问题上动作 密集,引发丹麦、欧盟等方面的强烈抗议。 分析人士指出,特朗普政府对格陵兰岛的图谋背后有着多重考量,一系列动作进一步暴露了美国"掠夺 性外交"本质,令跨大西洋裂痕愈发凸显。 另据多家媒体报道,特朗普政府正通过情报活动等隐蔽手段干预格陵兰岛事务。美国《华尔街日报》今 年5月披露,美国情报机构已加强针对该岛的情报工作,重点是掌握格陵兰岛"独立运动动向"以及当地 对美国开采资源的态度。 丹麦广播公司8月报道说,至少有3名与白宫高层关系密切的美国人多次往返美国和格陵兰岛,试图通过 搭建人脉、渗透社会、收集信息等方式,推动格陵兰岛逐步疏离丹麦、依附美国。 美国斯坦福大学教授迈克尔·麦克福尔批评说,这一任 ...
出大事了,高市国会翻车,大臣单膝跪地解围,80万亿投资坑惨百姓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-20 05:41
这80万亿日元(大约5200亿美元)的去向,像一把锋利的刀子,精准切开了日本社会表面看似光鲜的国 家利益叙事。在日本政府的计划中,这笔钱将被投入美国的半导体、人工智能和新能源产业。这笔被称 为日美贸易协定框架下的投资,实际上让日本再次扮演了提款机的角色。山本太郎在现场做了这样一笔 让人心寒的账:日本用全国的力量为美国产业提供资金,而即便这些美国企业将来盈利,绝大多数利润 都将流入美国本土。换句话说,所谓的技术合作,更像是一笔看不到回报的保护费。 更具讽刺性的是,这笔巨资的流出时间恰逢日本国内物价飞涨,普通家庭为了一日三餐而斤斤计较。一 方面是政府对美国投资大手笔支出,另一方面,国内消费税依旧没有改变,老百姓期待的补贴甚至没有 影子。虽然政府预算案中写明有8.9万亿日元用于应对物价上涨,但实际情况是,这笔资金被注水,且 分配极不均匀。看着国外那80万亿日元的大方投资,普通民众的钱包却在缩水,任何为生计奔波的日本 工薪阶层都难免产生被弃如敝履的愤怒情绪。 这场舆论风暴,表面上看是由于一位议员的激烈发言,但背后更深层的原因是强烈的社会反差,它引爆 了积压已久的民众愤怒。有评论称,这场危机有些像新版广场协议的重演—— ...
500票通过!欧洲议会决定:最晚2027年与俄天然气彻底“分手”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 12:49
国际贸易委员会成员魏德雷在表决后表示:"这对欧盟来说是一项重大成就,也是欧洲能源政策的一个历史性转折点。" 她指出,决议内容比欧盟委员会最初提案更为严格,不仅加速了淘汰进程,还为未来禁止俄罗斯石油产品、提前终止长期合同及设定违约惩罚奠定了基础。 自2022年地缘政治局势变化以来,欧盟持续推动能源来源多元化,加速可再生能源布局,并已通过多种渠道大幅削减对俄天然气依赖。 长期合同方面,液化天然气进口禁令自2027年1月1日起实施,管道天然气禁令最终期限为2027年9月30日。 为强化执行效果,决议要求天然气运营商在进口或储存前向海关提供详细的产地证明,以堵塞规避漏洞。 欧洲议会议员还敦促欧盟委员会在2026年初前提出禁止俄罗斯石油的立法提案,确保相关禁令不晚于2027年底生效。 欧盟历史性能源决议落地:最晚2027年底全面停止进口俄罗斯天然气。 欧洲议会周三以压倒性票数通过一项决议,正式批准欧盟逐步停止从俄罗斯进口天然气的计划,最终期限设定为2027年底。 此次投票结果为500票赞成、120票反对、32票弃权,标志着欧盟在摆脱对俄能源依赖、推进能源自主的道路上迈出决定性一步。 根据决议,欧盟将对俄罗斯天然气实施分 ...
从俄乌和平进程出局:欧洲为何 上不了牌桌?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 06:13
Economic Factors - Europe's economic power is declining, with the Eurozone's growth rate remaining below 1% for three consecutive years, while the US maintains a growth rate above 2% [3] - The energy crisis has significantly increased living costs, with EU energy import costs rising over 40% compared to pre-Ukraine conflict levels in 2022 [3] - The share of the Euro in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 22% in 2020 to below 18% in 2025, while the US dollar remains above 58% [3] Geopolitical Missteps - Russia has reshaped regional order through the Ukraine conflict, strengthening ties with Belarus and Central Asian countries, which undermines Europe's influence in Eastern Europe [5] - Internal divisions within Europe, such as disagreements over immigration and rule of law, hinder collective action, exacerbated by the economic disparities among member states [5] - Europe's military security is heavily reliant on the US, with 70% of military equipment procurement coming from American companies, leading to a loss of strategic independence [5] Marginalization in International Affairs - Europe has been sidelined in the US-Russia geopolitical chess game, with the US providing over $120 billion in aid to Ukraine compared to Europe's less than $80 billion, highlighting internal disagreements [5] - Private negotiations between Russia and the US have excluded Europe from key discussions, indicating a shift in focus away from European involvement [5] - The risk of deindustrialization is rising, with over 15% of European manufacturing firms considering relocating production to the US or Asia due to rising energy costs [6] Lessons and Implications - The situation illustrates that economic, military, and diplomatic hard power are essential for international influence; without resilience and autonomy, proposals lack substance [8] - The economic struggles in Europe could lead to global market volatility, affecting everyday costs for citizens, emphasizing the interconnectedness of international politics and personal finances [8] - Europe's marginalization is a direct result of its declining power and strategic errors, serving as a warning for other nations about the importance of hard power in international relations [9]
为什么中国一提“琉球”,日本就如此紧张
首席商业评论· 2025-11-17 04:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and legal complexities surrounding the sovereignty of the Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa), emphasizing that Japan's claims are based on historical inaccuracies and lack legal foundation, while highlighting China's interest in the issue as a challenge to Japan's territorial integrity and strategic interests [3][10][21]. Historical Context - The Ryukyu Islands were historically an independent kingdom with strong ties to China, recognized as a vassal state during the Ming Dynasty, and maintained a dual allegiance to both China and Japan until the late 19th century [6][8]. - Japan's annexation of the Ryukyu Islands began in the late 19th century, culminating in the formal incorporation of Okinawa in 1879, which was met with resistance from the Ryukyu people [8][10]. Legal Status - Post-World War II, the legal status of the Ryukyu Islands remains unresolved, as international agreements like the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation did not include the islands in Japan's territorial claims [10][11]. - The San Francisco Peace Treaty and the Okinawa Reversion Agreement are criticized for lacking legal validity, as they did not involve China and did not consider the wishes of the Ryukyu people [11][13]. Independence Movements - There is a growing sentiment for independence among Okinawans, with movements advocating for the establishment of a Ryukyu autonomous republic, citing historical grievances and the lack of recognition from the Japanese government [14][17]. - The presence of U.S. military bases in Okinawa, which occupy about 20% of the island, has fueled discontent and calls for independence, as local residents face environmental and social issues related to the bases [17][19]. Strategic Implications - The sovereignty issue is linked to Japan's broader territorial disputes and strategic concerns in East Asia, as any shift in the status of Okinawa could have repercussions for Japan's territorial claims and its alliance with the United States [21][23]. - The article argues that the future of Okinawa should be determined by its people, emphasizing the need for respect for their self-determination and historical context [20][23].
我国西部,正在悄悄推进两个超级“国家工程”
虎嗅APP· 2025-09-04 00:12
Core Viewpoint - China is quietly advancing two major national projects in the western region, which are expected to significantly reshape the economic landscape of China and Asia [6][11]. Group 1: Major Projects Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project officially commenced in July, with high-level attendance at the opening ceremony [7]. - In August, the New Tibet Railway Company was established, with an investment exceeding 400 billion yuan for the "Heavenly Road" project set to begin [8]. - The total investment for these two projects is projected to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan, accounting for over 1% of the national GDP in 2024 [9][10]. Group 2: Project Details - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project will consist of five cascading power stations with a total installed capacity of 60-81 million kilowatts, generating approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, equivalent to three Three Gorges dams [14]. - The New Tibet Railway will span about 2,000 kilometers, connecting Xinjiang and Tibet, and will be the highest and most challenging railway in the world, with an average elevation exceeding 4,500 meters [15][16]. - Both projects are located in sparsely populated and economically underdeveloped Tibet, highlighting a strategic investment in a challenging environment [18]. Group 3: Challenges Faced - The projects face "hellish" challenges, including high altitude, complex geological conditions, and extreme weather [21][30]. - The average elevation of the New Tibet Railway is over 4,500 meters, with the highest point exceeding 5,200 meters, posing significant physiological challenges for construction workers [25]. - The construction periods for both projects exceed 10 years, requiring continuous massive funding, with the New Tibet Railway needing 30-40 billion yuan annually [32]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project addresses energy security, as China is the world's largest energy consumer, heavily reliant on coal and imports [36][40]. - The New Tibet Railway will connect the largest provinces, facilitating trade and economic integration, which is crucial for the development of Tibet [43][65]. - The completion of these projects will enable the western region to develop its own industries, leading to sustainable growth and reducing reliance on central government transfers [63][66]. Group 5: Geopolitical Implications - China is constructing a land-based transportation network to reshape the geopolitical landscape, moving away from maritime dominance historically held by Western powers [52][60]. - The New Tibet Railway will enhance connectivity with Central Asia, facilitating trade routes to Europe and the Middle East, thus alleviating energy security concerns [54][55]. - The strategic positioning of Tibet as a central hub in Asia could lead to significant geopolitical shifts in the region [58][71].
泽连斯基闯大祸,乌克兰后路被堵死,普京收获意外胜利
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 04:28
Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's recent attack on the "Friendship" oil pipeline in Russia has severely hindered its chances of joining the European Union, with Hungary explicitly blocking any negotiations for membership [1][3][5]. Group 1: Hungary's Position - Hungary's Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, has stated that Hungary will not agree to initiate the first round of negotiations regarding Ukraine's EU membership, effectively stalling the process [3]. - As long as Hungary maintains its stance, Ukraine's prospects for EU membership are virtually non-existent, drawing parallels to Turkey's prolonged wait for EU accession [3]. Group 2: Impact of Ukraine's Actions - The attack on the "Friendship" pipeline is viewed as a strategic misstep for Ukraine, as it has minimal impact on Russia but exacerbates existing tensions within the EU, particularly concerning energy security [5][6]. - The EU's position leans towards supporting Ukraine, but it must also consider the energy concerns of Eastern European members like Hungary and Slovakia [5]. - Ukraine's aggressive actions have alienated key EU neighbors, potentially isolating it in its geopolitical strategy and diminishing its leverage against Russia [6]. Group 3: Broader Geopolitical Implications - The situation presents an unexpected victory for Russia, as Ukraine's actions have inadvertently obstructed its own path to EU integration, which could leave it vulnerable in future negotiations with Russia [6]. - Ukraine's failure to secure EU membership could lead to a more precarious position in upcoming ceasefire talks, as it must also address disputes with neighboring countries like Hungary [6].
特朗普等来了一个坏消息,莫迪做出的决定,直接让他破防了:印度将继续购买!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-30 04:25
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, prompting India to increase its oil imports from Russia by 10% to 20% in September, equating to an additional 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day [1][6]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. aimed to deter countries from engaging in energy trade with Russia by imposing heavy tariffs on India, which included a 25% base tax followed by an additional 25% due to India's oil imports from Russia [1][5]. - Despite U.S. pressure, Indian Prime Minister Modi ignored multiple calls from Trump urging concessions, signaling a strong stance against U.S. demands [3][5]. Group 2: India's Response and Strategy - India is not only maintaining but also increasing its oil imports from Russia, with current daily imports at 1.5 million barrels, expected to rise to 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels in September [6]. - The Indian government is taking measures to protect local interests, including suspending certain import tariffs and accelerating trade negotiations with other countries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [3][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - India's actions reflect a strategic calculation, recognizing its importance in the U.S. global energy strategy while prioritizing its national interests over U.S. pressures [5][6]. - The Indian government has publicly stated that it will not sacrifice its own interests for U.S. benefits, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness and stable supply of Russian oil [5][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Russian oil constitutes about 40% of India's total crude imports, making India the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, which significantly boosts the profitability of Indian refineries [6]. - Analysts suggest that unless a global ban is implemented, Russian oil will remain entrenched in the Indian market, with potential price spikes if India reduces its purchases [6][8].
贝森特强夺美联储决策权,弱美元成政治武器,这场金融战剑指中国!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 22:00
Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing financial turmoil characterized by a currency war and the shadow of recession, highlighting the contrasting signals from U.S. fiscal data and capital market reactions [1][12]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury data shows a significant increase in tariff revenue, with nearly $30 billion collected in July alone and an annual projection exceeding $150 billion, suggesting a strong economy [1]. - Despite the tariff revenue, the U.S. dollar index has dropped sharply from 109 to 98 within six months, indicating a nearly 10% decline, which is rare in the past fifty years [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Dynamics - Treasury Secretary Yellen's public calls for the Federal Reserve to take decisive action, including a 50 basis point rate cut, represent an unusual direct intervention in central bank policy [1][3]. - Yellen aims to shift the decision-making process from data-driven analysis to market sentiment, creating a perception of impending liquidity shortages [6]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - Yellen's strategy includes pressuring the Fed while simultaneously advocating for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, aiming to disrupt global capital flows and close the "cheap borrowing" avenue from Japan [8][10]. - A potential rise in Japanese interest rates could lead to a massive repatriation of yen-denominated assets, impacting U.S. dollar assets and increasing selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries [10]. Group 4: Strategic Objectives - The overarching goal of Yellen's actions is to create a "weak dollar and overvalued yuan" scenario, which aligns with previous U.S. policies aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing by lowering financing costs [11]. - This financial strategy is designed to weaken China's export competitiveness by forcing the yuan to appreciate against a declining dollar, thereby impacting China's manufacturing sector [11][12]. Group 5: Geopolitical Context - The article emphasizes that the current monetary policy has transformed from a technical tool into a political weapon, with countries competing for relative advantages rather than absolute economic strength [14]. - The dynamics of capital flows are now seen as a more accurate reflection of a nation's economic health than traditional metrics like tariff revenues [14].
中国代表驳斥美方在巴拿马运河问题上对中国无理指责
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-11 21:53
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese representative at the UN, Fu Cong, refuted U.S. accusations regarding the Panama Canal, asserting that China respects Panama's sovereignty and the canal's status as a neutral international waterway [1] Group 1: U.S. Accusations and China's Response - The U.S. has repeatedly made unfounded accusations against China in various UN Security Council discussions, which China firmly opposes [1] - China emphasizes its respect for Panama's sovereignty over the canal and criticizes the U.S. for fabricating lies to justify its control over the Panama Canal [1] Group 2: U.S. Actions in the South China Sea - Fu Cong labeled the U.S. as the biggest disruptor of peace and stability in the South China Sea, citing the deployment of offensive weapons and military reconnaissance activities by the U.S. in the region [1] - The U.S. aims to create chaos in the South China Sea to serve its geopolitical interests, according to Fu Cong [1] Group 3: Global Maritime Security Risks - The U.S. is accused of exacerbating global maritime security risks through its hegemonic behavior, Cold War mentality, and unilateral actions [1] - The U.S. has not joined the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and disregards international law, which undermines global maritime governance [1] - The U.S. is also criticized for threatening the normal operations of key maritime routes like the Panama and Suez Canals, challenging the sovereignty of other nations [1]