中信建投证券研究文|周君芝 谢雨心 刚刚平息的关税博弈似乎又在卷土重来。 先有232调查针对先进芯片，后有关键矿产"180天通牒"，随后跟进格陵兰岛争议和欧洲惩罚性关税，制 裁伊朗的惩罚性关税。 一、第一张关税牌：232调查剑指关键"卡脖子"的战略领域。 首先是先进芯片的"安全供应链"账本。 自2026年1月15日起，美国正式对特定类别的高级计算芯片征收25%的从价关税 。 不变的是关税博弈背后的美国意图一以贯之，争夺工业生存权与技术定义权。 2025年广泛关税撕裂旧秩序，做多黄金；2026年针对性关税博弈，做多工业体系再造下的关键战略资 源。 2026年伊始，美国白宫密集发布了多项行政命令与总统公告，关税冲突再度卷土重来。 关税从来只是手段，不是目的。 2025年美国不惜掀翻美国自己一手搭建的WTO旧秩序，试图用广义关税引导一轮新的供应链体系。供 应链再塑过程也是美国寻求生产供应安全的过程。 以此视角理解2026年关税风云，相较2025年： 变化的是关税博弈重点，已从广泛的产业备份，落到关键战略资源抢夺（矿产、先进芯片）。 此次半导体关税有三个特征：1）公告明确针对"能够赋能人工智能与高性能计算"的先进芯片 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tension surrounding Greenland's ownership has escalated, with President Putin formally challenging President Trump, intensifying the global focus on this dispute [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Reactions - President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European countries that do not support the U.S. acquisition of Greenland, with a 10% tariff starting February 1 and a planned increase to 25% by June [5][6]. - European leaders, including Denmark's Deputy Prime Minister and Norway's Prime Minister, have condemned Trump's threats, asserting that Greenland's future should be determined by its people [6][9]. - The U.S. is reportedly preparing a purchase plan for Greenland, with estimates suggesting the transaction could cost around $700 billion, reflecting a long-standing interest dating back to the 1867 purchase of Alaska [11][13]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Greenland - Greenland's strategic location between North America and Europe is crucial for military operations, with the U.S. already deploying F-35 jets at the Thule Air Base [13]. - The island is rich in rare metals and resources, including uranium and gallium, which are vital for defense and high-tech industries, making it an attractive target for the U.S. [15][16]. - The local indigenous population and the Greenlandic government have expressed strong opposition to the sale, emphasizing their desire to control resource development while facing financial dependency on Denmark [18]. Group 3: Russian Response - Russia has indicated it will respond aggressively if the U.S. attempts to annex Greenland, potentially deploying troops to the Svalbard archipelago, which could destabilize the region [19][24]. - The Svalbard Treaty mandates the area remain demilitarized, but Russia has already begun military preparations, including establishing a rescue center and deploying modified helicopters [22][26]. - The strategic significance of Svalbard is highlighted, as control over the archipelago would secure Russia's access to the Barents Sea, crucial for its nuclear submarine operations [24]. Group 4: Norway's Position - Norway, as the sovereign state of Svalbard, faces challenges in defending its territory against potential Russian aggression, with military response times being significantly delayed [28]. - The economic implications for Norway, particularly in its fishing industry, could be severe if tensions escalate, leading to limited defensive measures being taken [29]. - The EU's reluctance to activate its coercive mechanisms against the U.S. reflects the complex dynamics within NATO, as the U.S. remains a key ally and trading partner [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical implications of President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless they agree to sell Greenland, highlighting the underlying competition for Arctic resources [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Threat and Geopolitical Context - The U.S. plans to impose a 10% tariff starting February 1, escalating to 25% in June on Denmark and seven other European nations unless they agree to "completely and thoroughly sell Greenland" [1] - Greenland is strategically significant, possessing a quarter of the world's rare earth reserves and controlling future Arctic shipping routes [4] - The timing of the tariff threat coincides with military exercises involving multiple countries on Greenland, indicating a deeper strategic maneuver by the U.S. [4][6] Group 2: Rare Earth Resources and Economic Implications - Greenland's rare earth oxide reserves are estimated at 38.5 million tons, with critical materials like praseodymium and neodymium essential for the renewable energy sector [6] - Chinese investments in Greenland's southern rare earth mining areas account for 12%, which may explain U.S. concerns regarding resource control [6] Group 3: EU's Response and Strategic Considerations - The EU is considering two countermeasures: initiating WTO dispute resolution and coordinating member states on U.S. export controls [8] - The situation reflects a shift in how geopolitical conflicts are managed, with tariffs being used as leverage in resource competition [9] - The EU's unified stance against the U.S. indicates a significant shift in international relations, emphasizing sovereignty over economic concessions [8][9]

Group 1 - Multiple European countries, including France, Germany, and the UK, have announced troop deployments to Greenland for the "Arctic Endurance" military exercise initiated by Denmark, signaling a strengthened military posture and urging the US to abandon its interest in acquiring Greenland [1][2] - The troop numbers from these countries are minimal, with France sending 15 soldiers, Germany dispatching a reconnaissance team of 13, and other nations contributing similarly small contingents [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the troop deployments are more of a political gesture rather than a significant military contribution, as European nations remain dependent on NATO and the US for security [3][4] Group 2 - The US administration, represented by White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, downplayed the European troop movements, stating they would not affect US decisions regarding Greenland [3] - President Trump has expressed a desire to acquire Greenland, indicating a potential willingness to use force, which has been interpreted as part of a broader strategy to secure resources and Arctic dominance [4][5] - Greenland is rich in natural resources such as oil, iron, diamonds, and gold, making it strategically important for both traditional and emerging industries [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that copper mining stocks in Hong Kong are experiencing significant gains, with several companies reaching new all-time highs due to rising copper prices and market concerns over potential tariffs on copper imports by the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - On January 14, copper prices reached a historical high, driven by fears that the Trump administration may expand the range of copper import tariffs, prompting traders to accelerate shipments to the U.S. before new tariffs are implemented [1] - The following companies saw notable stock price increases: - WanGuo Gold Group rose by 8.82% to 12.590 - Jiangxi Copper Co. increased by 4.36% to 48.320 - Minmetals Resources gained 3.93% to 10.050 - China Gold International rose by 3.77% to 189.800 - Luoyang Molybdenum increased by 2.96% to 22.920 - China Nonferrous Mining rose by 2.69% to 16.400 - 34th Year Salary increased by 0.74% to 41.100 [2] Group 3 - Bohai Securities indicated that market sentiment regarding resource competition significantly impacts current copper prices, suggesting that if short-term enthusiasm does not dissipate, copper prices may remain high and volatile [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks saw significant gains in the afternoon, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals rising by 10.91% to HKD 0.183, Jiangxi Copper up by 3.29% to HKD 47.06, Zijin Mining increasing by 1.74% to HKD 40.9, and China Nonferrous Mining rising by 1.59% to HKD 15.95 [1] - On January 14, copper prices reached an all-time high, driven by concerns over the potential expansion of copper import tariffs by the Trump administration, prompting traders to accelerate copper shipments to the U.S. before new tariffs are implemented, which may lead to supply shortages in other regions [1] - Bohai Securities indicated that market sentiment related to resource competition significantly impacts current copper prices, suggesting that if short-term sentiment remains high, copper prices may continue to fluctuate at elevated levels [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities released a report stating that in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage [1] - The report also noted that copper smelting profits are expected to bottom out amid a "de-involution" trend, and with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices are likely to break upward [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks saw significant gains, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals up 10.91% to HKD 0.183, Jiangxi Copper up 3.29% to HKD 47.06, Zijin Mining up 1.74% to HKD 40.9, and China Nonferrous Mining up 1.59% to HKD 15.95 [1] - On January 14, copper prices reached an all-time high, driven by concerns over the potential expansion of copper import tariffs by the Trump administration, prompting traders to accelerate shipments to the U.S. before new tariffs take effect [1] - Bohai Securities indicated that market sentiment related to resource competition significantly impacts current copper prices, suggesting that if short-term sentiment remains high, copper prices may continue to fluctuate at elevated levels [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities reported that in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage [1] - The profit cycle for copper smelting is expected to bottom out amid a "de-involution" backdrop, and with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices are likely to break upward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by the U.S. against Venezuela, including the forced control of President Maduro, has drawn widespread condemnation from various political leaders and regional organizations, highlighting a resurgence of "Monroe Doctrine" in contemporary context [1][3] Group 1: Political Reactions - Multiple international figures have criticized the U.S. military action as an infringement on Venezuela's sovereignty and a broader attempt to reassert U.S. dominance in Latin America, particularly concerning resource control, especially oil [1] - The former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister, Guillaume Long, emphasized that the U.S. actions are about power dynamics and resource competition, which violate the sovereignty of Venezuela and Latin America as a whole [1] - Brazilian political science professor, Cristina Pecequilo, warned that non-compliance with U.S. policies could lead to severe consequences, opening the door for further political and military interventions that threaten sovereignty [1] Group 2: Legal and Ethical Concerns - Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Fulin Min, described the military action as an unwarranted act of aggression, arguing that it exceeds the Monroe Doctrine and represents a push for U.S. hegemony in the hemisphere [3] - He stated that the military action violates U.S. constitutional law, as Congress did not authorize the use of force against another sovereign nation, particularly in the context of detaining a head of state [3] - The actions taken against Venezuela are not only against U.S. law but also contravene numerous international legal standards [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the sovereignty of Greenland, asserting that it belongs to Denmark and should not be subject to external claims, particularly from the United States [1][7][10] - The U.S. administration, led by Stephen Miller, has declared Greenland as a national security priority, exploring various options to assert control, including potential military action [2][3][12] - Denmark's government has responded firmly, indicating that any military aggression against a NATO ally would have severe consequences, and has initiated discussions with the U.S. to address these claims [4][6][11] Group 2 - Multiple European nations, including France, Germany, and Italy, have united in a statement reinforcing that Greenland's affairs should be determined by Denmark and Greenland, rejecting U.S. assertions [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. may not resort to military action but could instead employ political influence tactics, such as buying off local politicians, to gain control over Greenland [3][12] - The situation poses a significant risk of fracturing NATO and the EU, with experts warning that U.S. actions could lead to unprecedented divisions within these alliances [13]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core View - The macro - atmosphere is positive. Due to intensified global resource competition, nickel prices continued to rise on the 6th, surging 4.13% and approaching the phased high of 140,000 yuan/ton. Total positions increased slightly by 3,889 lots to 360,000 lots. Nickel price increases drove up prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI quote increased by 6.5 to 936.5 yuan/nickel point on the 6th, and nickel salt prices increased by 500 to 28,700 yuan/ton. The rebound of LME nickel prices will also drive up the spot cost of nickel salts. The market is highly volatile, and participation should be cautious [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro - atmosphere is positive. Global resource competition is intensifying, and nickel prices continued to rise on the 6th, up 4.13% and approaching 140,000 yuan/ton. Total positions increased slightly by 3,889 lots to 360,000 lots. The increase in nickel prices drove up prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI quote increased by 6.5 to 936.5 yuan/nickel point on the 6th, and nickel salt prices increased by 500 to 28,700 yuan/ton. The rebound of LME nickel prices will drive up the spot cost of nickel salts. The market is highly volatile before the RKAB quota decision is finalized, and participation should be cautious [7]. Group 5: Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated that the 2026 RKAB will be used as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. The adjustment of production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the APNI is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the data is still being integrated [8][10]. - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 RKAB, PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining operations. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and the temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The approval delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mine and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10].