Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumer market has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4][5] - Supply-side pressures remain significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, but fixed asset investment continues to grow at over 15% [4] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3] - Price indicators such as PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI are monitored, along with supply-side metrics like capacity utilization and fixed asset investment [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand stability is sought in industries led by supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] - Conversely, industries with stable supply but driven by demand logic include MDI and explosives, with key companies highlighted [7] Global Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global investment and trade patterns due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for regional cooperation and stability [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in both domestic and international markets, focusing on new production capabilities and breakthroughs in material science [7] Price Trends and Economic Performance - The chemical product price index (CCPI) has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of approximately 6.9% from January to April 2025 [14] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and products has also experienced a downward trend, with June 2025 figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [16]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has outlined nine key areas of focus for the second half of the year to ensure the completion of annual targets and the "14th Five-Year Plan" tasks [1] - NDRC Director Zheng Zhaojie emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations while enhancing both domestic and international economic cycles [1] Summary by Categories Economic Analysis and Planning - Focus on analyzing and assessing major changes, important indicators, and significant issues [1] - Ensure the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Investment and Consumption - Increase efforts to stabilize investment and promote consumption [1] Production Capacity - Cultivate and strengthen new types of productive forces based on local conditions [1] Market Development - Advance the construction of a unified national market [1] International Trade - Expand high-level opening up to the outside world [1] Environmental Initiatives - Promote green and low-carbon development through comprehensive carbon emission control [1] Regional Development - Advance coordinated development between urban and rural areas [1] Risk Management - Strengthen comprehensive planning and balance across various sectors [1] Employment and Supply Chain Security - Focus on stabilizing employment, maintaining the safety of food, energy, and industrial supply chains, and ensuring energy supply during peak seasons [1]

Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to enhance macroeconomic policy effectiveness and stimulate internal economic growth [1] - The State Council reiterated the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month below the growth threshold [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index increased to 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by seasonal weather conditions, while infrastructure-related activities continued to show robust growth [10] Consumer Behavior - The summer consumption effect began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer consumption has not yet significantly impacted these areas [11][12] Policy Implications - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of releasing internal demand potential and implementing consumption-boosting actions [12] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [12]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for effective implementation of the central government's decisions to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations while promoting high-quality economic development in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Stability and Development - The NDRC aims to focus on major changes, important indicators, and significant issues to analyze the current economic situation, with a particular emphasis on stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1]. - There is a commitment to solidify the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and to prepare for the 15th Five-Year Plan by evaluating current progress and aligning with central government directives [1][2]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The NDRC plans to enhance investment and promote consumption by expanding investment increments and managing government projects throughout their lifecycle [2]. - There is a focus on stimulating private investment and implementing policies to improve quality and efficiency in construction projects [2]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Development - The NDRC encourages the cultivation of new productive forces, particularly through the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative and the development of the low-altitude economy [2]. - Efforts will be made to advance the construction of a unified national market and reform bidding and investment attraction practices to promote healthy development of the private economy [2]. Group 4: Green Development and Urban-Rural Coordination - The NDRC is committed to promoting green and low-carbon development through a comprehensive transition to dual control of energy consumption and carbon emissions [4]. - There will be a focus on regional and urban-rural coordinated development, including urban renewal and rural revitalization initiatives [4]. Group 5: Employment and Social Welfare - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and ensuring the safety of key sectors such as food, energy, and supply chains [4]. - There is a commitment to enhancing public welfare services and ensuring the supply and price stability of essential goods for the population [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic stability and growth in the second half of 2025, highlighting the resilience and potential of China's economy despite facing external pressures and risks [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Outlook - China's economy has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with major economic indicators reflecting positive trends and new achievements in high-quality development [1]. - The NDRC acknowledges the challenges ahead but remains confident in the long-term positive trends and supportive conditions for high-quality development [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Focus Areas - The NDRC is committed to implementing the decisions of the Central Government, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations while enhancing both domestic and international economic cycles [2]. - Key areas of focus include investment promotion, consumer stimulation, and the cultivation of new productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital economy [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The NDRC plans to strengthen the construction of a unified national market, promote high-level opening up, and ensure the safety of key sectors such as food, energy, and supply chains [2][3]. - Emphasis will be placed on green and low-carbon development, as well as coordinated regional and urban-rural development strategies [2][3].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain a stable and progressive approach to economic work in the second half of the year, ensuring policy continuity and flexibility to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus will be on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the people's livelihood [7][9] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, as consumer demand continues to be released and market supply improves [10][12] - Experts noted that service consumption is becoming a major direction for consumption upgrades, and the government aims to cultivate new growth points in this area to enhance people's quality of life and expand overall consumption [14][16] - The development of service consumption is crucial for meeting livelihood needs, upgrading the consumption industry, and creating new consumption scenarios, which will facilitate both domestic and international economic circulation [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The current cycle is nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export remain robust, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. Recovery in consumption is anticipated after two years of stability [3] - Supply-side pressures are significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are declining, but fixed asset investment remains above 15% growth [3] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with price and profit levels expected to rebound in Q2 2024, although overall performance will remain under pressure for the year [3] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the comprehensive prosperity index of the chemical industry and industrial added value [2] Price Indicators - The report includes PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI, along with price differentials for chemical products [2] Supply-side Indicators - Key metrics include capacity utilization, energy consumption, fixed asset investment, inventory, and ongoing projects [2] Import and Export Indicators - The report analyzes the contribution of import and export values [2] Downstream Industry Performance Indicators - It covers PMI, real estate, home appliances, automotive, and textile sectors [2] Economic Efficiency Indicators - The report presents three major economic efficiency indicators for the industry [2] Global Macro and End Market Indicators - It includes procurement manager index, GDP year-on-year, civil construction starts, consumer confidence index, and automotive sales [2] Global Chemical Product Prices and Differentials - The report details prices and differentials for chemical raw materials, intermediate products, and sub-industries like resins and fibers [2] Global Industry Economic Efficiency Indicators - It discusses changes in sales, profitability, growth capacity, solvency, operational capacity, and per-share indicators [2] Chemical Product Prices and Production Indicators in Europe and the US - The report provides insights into the prosperity index, confidence index, capacity utilization, production index, PPI, and production index for the chemical industry in these regions [2]

高毅资产管理产品持有人请关注并注册"高毅资产客户服务"，查询持有资产、产品净值，获取更多产品资讯。 在经历了2024年的弱复苏与结构性调整后，中国资本市场在2025年将面临哪些新机遇与挑战？ 在与投资人的年 度 交流中，高毅资产合伙人、资深基金经理孙庆瑞 认为， 2025年对经济影响较大 的 三大关键变量 是 美国关税 博弈、地产修复节奏与政策工具箱的边际效能 ，需要保持密切关注。在此背景下，其投资策略将通过"外循环 +内循环"双主线 展开 。 她具体分享了 消费电子、 工业、互联网 等领域的结构性机会。 01 展望2025年：重点关注关税、地产与政策三大变量 请您展望2025年，有哪些重要指标或因素是您关注的？ 孙庆瑞： 展望2025年，对中国经济影响较大的三大因素值得关注： 第一，美国加征关税。根据IMF测算， 2024年1-8月，中国对美国出口份额较2017年下降了 3.5%，同期，中国对东盟、俄罗斯出口份额分别上升了3.4%、1.1%。在此期间，中国大陆占美国 进口金额从最高点22%下滑至14%，而中国占全世界商品出口的份额占比达到14%，维持在历史最 高水平。这表明中国通过贸易路线的调整和供应链的重 ...