Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic stability and growth in the second half of 2025, highlighting the resilience and potential of China's economy despite facing external pressures and risks [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Outlook - China's economy has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with major economic indicators reflecting positive trends and new achievements in high-quality development [1]. - The NDRC acknowledges the challenges ahead but remains confident in the long-term positive trends and supportive conditions for high-quality development [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Focus Areas - The NDRC is committed to implementing the decisions of the Central Government, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations while enhancing both domestic and international economic cycles [2]. - Key areas of focus include investment promotion, consumer stimulation, and the cultivation of new productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital economy [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The NDRC plans to strengthen the construction of a unified national market, promote high-level opening up, and ensure the safety of key sectors such as food, energy, and supply chains [2][3]. - Emphasis will be placed on green and low-carbon development, as well as coordinated regional and urban-rural development strategies [2][3].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain a stable and progressive approach to economic work in the second half of the year, ensuring policy continuity and flexibility to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus will be on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the people's livelihood [7][9] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, as consumer demand continues to be released and market supply improves [10][12] - Experts noted that service consumption is becoming a major direction for consumption upgrades, and the government aims to cultivate new growth points in this area to enhance people's quality of life and expand overall consumption [14][16] - The development of service consumption is crucial for meeting livelihood needs, upgrading the consumption industry, and creating new consumption scenarios, which will facilitate both domestic and international economic circulation [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The current cycle is nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export remain robust, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. Recovery in consumption is anticipated after two years of stability [3] - Supply-side pressures are significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are declining, but fixed asset investment remains above 15% growth [3] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with price and profit levels expected to rebound in Q2 2024, although overall performance will remain under pressure for the year [3] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the comprehensive prosperity index of the chemical industry and industrial added value [2] Price Indicators - The report includes PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI, along with price differentials for chemical products [2] Supply-side Indicators - Key metrics include capacity utilization, energy consumption, fixed asset investment, inventory, and ongoing projects [2] Import and Export Indicators - The report analyzes the contribution of import and export values [2] Downstream Industry Performance Indicators - It covers PMI, real estate, home appliances, automotive, and textile sectors [2] Economic Efficiency Indicators - The report presents three major economic efficiency indicators for the industry [2] Global Macro and End Market Indicators - It includes procurement manager index, GDP year-on-year, civil construction starts, consumer confidence index, and automotive sales [2] Global Chemical Product Prices and Differentials - The report details prices and differentials for chemical raw materials, intermediate products, and sub-industries like resins and fibers [2] Global Industry Economic Efficiency Indicators - It discusses changes in sales, profitability, growth capacity, solvency, operational capacity, and per-share indicators [2] Chemical Product Prices and Production Indicators in Europe and the US - The report provides insights into the prosperity index, confidence index, capacity utilization, production index, PPI, and production index for the chemical industry in these regions [2]

高毅资产管理产品持有人请关注并注册"高毅资产客户服务"，查询持有资产、产品净值，获取更多产品资讯。 在经历了2024年的弱复苏与结构性调整后，中国资本市场在2025年将面临哪些新机遇与挑战？ 在与投资人的年 度 交流中，高毅资产合伙人、资深基金经理孙庆瑞 认为， 2025年对经济影响较大 的 三大关键变量 是 美国关税 博弈、地产修复节奏与政策工具箱的边际效能 ，需要保持密切关注。在此背景下，其投资策略将通过"外循环 +内循环"双主线 展开 。 她具体分享了 消费电子、 工业、互联网 等领域的结构性机会。 01 展望2025年：重点关注关税、地产与政策三大变量 请您展望2025年，有哪些重要指标或因素是您关注的？ 孙庆瑞： 展望2025年，对中国经济影响较大的三大因素值得关注： 第一，美国加征关税。根据IMF测算， 2024年1-8月，中国对美国出口份额较2017年下降了 3.5%，同期，中国对东盟、俄罗斯出口份额分别上升了3.4%、1.1%。在此期间，中国大陆占美国 进口金额从最高点22%下滑至14%，而中国占全世界商品出口的份额占比达到14%，维持在历史最 高水平。这表明中国通过贸易路线的调整和供应链的重 ...