失业率上升

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特朗普政策拖后腿!美国6月失业率要创三年半新高?
智通财经网· 2025-07-03 08:21
Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of slowing down in June, with an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3%, the highest in three and a half years [1] - Non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May and below the three-month average of 135,000 [1][2] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%, with an annualized increase of 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The proportion of consumers who believe "job opportunities are plentiful" fell to the lowest level in over four years in June [4] - Economists predict that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to restart its easing cycle in September [4] - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a 74.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July and a 71.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [4][5] Group 3 - A rising trend in layoffs is contributing to a decrease in re-employment opportunities, which explains the expected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor market is facing challenges due to hiring fatigue, while layoffs remain low as employers continue to struggle with recruitment post-pandemic [2] Group 4 - The healthcare sector is likely to remain a key employment driver, while the leisure and hospitality industry may see reduced job applications due to fears of deportation among immigrants [6] - The manufacturing sector continues to be constrained by tariffs, and the trend of mild reductions in federal government jobs persists [6]
全球紧盯!美联储7月降息的最后希望,全看今夜非农
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-03 06:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations for June's non-farm payrolls to increase by 110,000, down from 139,000 in May, and an unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][2] - Economists are divided on whether the unemployment rate will rise, with most leading indicators suggesting an increase, as the number of continuing unemployment claims has risen to nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2][3] - The private sector unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023, indicating a cooling job market [2][4] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% in May, and if this trend continues, it may keep the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% for June [3][4] - Economists have noted that the estimates for June's non-farm payrolls have the narrowest range since 2018, reflecting a consensus that job growth will slow [4][5] - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to a slowdown in consumer spending on travel-related services [4][5] Group 3 - The potential impact of trade policies and immigration changes may influence the unemployment rate, with some economists suggesting that reduced labor force expansion could help keep the unemployment rate lower [2][3] - Market reactions to the upcoming employment report are anticipated, with expectations that a disappointing report could lead to a decline in stock prices and an increase in bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Gold prices are also being closely monitored, with expectations that a weak employment report could support gold prices, while a strong report may lead to a decline [6][7]
美联储主席鲍威尔:低招聘率意味着,如果我们看到裁员人数增加,失业率将迅速上升。
news flash· 2025-06-25 15:46
Core Viewpoint - The low hiring rates indicate that if layoffs increase, the unemployment rate will rise rapidly [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the relationship between hiring rates and unemployment [1]
美联储巴尔:关税也可能导致经济放缓,失业率上升。货币政策处于有利位置,美联储将观望经济形势如何发展。
news flash· 2025-06-24 20:08
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that tariffs could potentially lead to economic slowdown and increased unemployment, indicating that monetary policy is currently in a favorable position while the Fed observes economic developments [1] Group 1 - Tariffs may contribute to economic slowdown [1] - Potential rise in unemployment due to tariffs [1] - Federal Reserve is in a favorable position regarding monetary policy [1]
瑞士央行:失业率可能继续小幅上升。
news flash· 2025-06-19 07:38
Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank indicates that the unemployment rate may continue to rise slightly in the near future [1] Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank's assessment suggests a potential upward trend in unemployment, reflecting broader economic conditions [1]
瑞士央行:如有需要,准备干预外汇市场。预计2025年GDP增长1%至1.5%。预计2026年GDP增长1%至1.5%。失业率可能继续“小幅”上升。
news flash· 2025-06-19 07:37
Core Insights - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary [1] - GDP growth is projected to be between 1% and 1.5% for both 2025 and 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate may continue to rise slightly [1]
“新债王”Gundlach:如果失业率上升,美联储更有可能会多次降息。最近数年来,美联储主席鲍威尔一直在应对数据失常问题。理解鲍威尔采取的(骑驴看唱本式)观望策略。显然,美联储认为下一步政策行动将是降息。
news flash· 2025-06-18 19:33
Core Viewpoint - The "Bond King" Gundlach suggests that if unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve is more likely to implement multiple interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has been dealing with data discrepancies in recent years [1] - Understanding Powell's cautious approach to policy decisions is essential [1] - It is evident that the Federal Reserve anticipates that the next policy action will be a rate cut [1]
“新债王”冈拉克:如果失业率上升,美联储更有可能降息。
news flash· 2025-06-18 19:30
Core Viewpoint - The "Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach suggests that if the unemployment rate rises, the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut interest rates [1] Group 1 - Gundlach's commentary highlights the relationship between unemployment rates and Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts is linked to economic indicators, particularly the labor market [1] - The statement reflects concerns about economic growth and its impact on monetary policy [1]
美联储FOMC经济预期:经济增长放缓,失业率略有上升,通胀率也略高于三月份的预期。
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:07
Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has indicated a slowdown in economic growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and inflation rates slightly above the expectations set in March [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth is projected to decelerate, reflecting broader economic trends [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1] Inflation Rate - Inflation rates are anticipated to be marginally higher than the forecasts made in March, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [1]
摩根大通CEO戴蒙:如果出现经济下行,信贷压力将超出预期。如果失业率上升,消费者端可能会面临更大的压力。
news flash· 2025-06-10 17:34
摩根大通CEO戴蒙:如果出现经济下行,信贷压力将超出预期。如果失业率上升,消费者端可能会面临 更大的压力。 ...