Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to advancing a unique financial development path, deepening financial reforms, and enhancing high-level openness to build a strong financial nation while ensuring a robust monetary policy framework and macro-prudential management system [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1]. - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions, guiding reasonable growth in total financing and balanced credit allocation [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate and Financing Cost Management - There will be improvements in the interest rate adjustment framework, enhancing the guidance of central bank policy rates and the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates [2]. - The PBOC plans to lower bank funding costs to promote low financing costs for society, expanding the coverage of comprehensive financing cost work for enterprises [2]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC will effectively implement various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [2]. - The central bank will maintain a managed floating exchange rate system, ensuring exchange rate flexibility and using it as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic and international balance of payments [2]. Group 4: Financial Stability and Risk Prevention - The PBOC aims to enhance its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, improving the toolbox for managing these aspects to maintain financial market stability and prevent systemic financial risks [2].

四是保持汇率基本稳定。坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用，发挥好汇率对宏观经济、国际收支的调 节功能，综合施策，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 五是重点领域金融风险持续收敛。整合设立中国人民银行宏观审慎和金融稳定委员会，进一步健全宏观 审慎管理和金融稳定保障体系。优化支持资本市场两项货币政策工具，支持发挥汇金公司"类平准基 金"作用。稳步推进重点机构和重点区域金融风险处置。 2025年适度宽松的货币政策效果逐步显现。金融总量保持较快增长，年末社会融资规模存量、广义货币 供应量（M2）同比分别增长8.3%和8.5%，明显高于名义GDP增速。人民币贷款还原地方化债影响后增 长7%左右，信贷支持力度持续较强。社会综合融资成本进一步下行，12月新发放企业贷款利率、个人 住房贷款利率均在3.1%左右。信贷结构持续优化，年末科技贷款、绿色贷款、普惠贷款、养老产业贷 款、数字经济产业贷款分别同比增长11.5%、20.2%、10.9%、50.5%、14.1%，均保持两位数增长，持续 高于全部贷款增速。人民币汇率在复杂形势下保持基本稳定，2025年末，人民币对美元汇率收盘价为 6.9890元，较2024年末升值4.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy in China, aimed at supporting stable economic growth and addressing challenges in the current external environment while ensuring financial stability [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a series of monetary policies to maintain reasonable growth in money and credit, ensuring liquidity is abundant to meet the effective credit demand of the real economy [1][6]. - The PBOC has reduced policy interest rates and housing provident fund loan rates to lower the overall financing costs in society, thereby supporting economic stability [2][6]. - The total social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth rate [3]. Group 2: Support for Key Areas - The PBOC has increased the quotas for re-loans to support technological innovation and agricultural financing by 300 billion yuan each, and created 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care loans [2]. - Financial support for key sectors has been enhanced, with significant year-on-year growth in loans for technology (11.5%), green projects (20.2%), and the elderly care industry (50.5%) [3]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - The PBOC has established a macro-prudential and financial stability committee to improve the management and stability of the financial system, focusing on risk resolution in key institutions and regions [2][5]. - The Chinese yuan has maintained basic stability against the US dollar, with a closing exchange rate of 6.9890 yuan at the end of 2025, appreciating by 4.4% compared to the end of 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, while adjusting policies based on domestic and international economic conditions [6]. - The emphasis will be on balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting the real economy, and maintaining the health of the banking system [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of actively and prudently preventing and resolving financial risks in its monetary policy execution report for Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The next phase of monetary policy will focus on establishing a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and a mechanism for systemic financial risk prevention and resolution [1] - The central bank aims to enhance its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, improving the toolbox for macro-prudential and financial stability management to maintain stable financial market operations [1] Group 2: Systemic Financial Risk Management - There will be a strengthened monitoring, assessment, and early warning system for systemic financial risks from a macro, counter-cyclical, and contagion perspective [1] - The macro-prudential management of systemically important financial institutions will be reinforced, advancing the construction of an additional regulatory framework [1] Group 3: Regulatory Enhancements - The report outlines the need for systemically important banks to continuously improve their recovery and resolution plans, exploring the proactive guidance role of risk management [1] - A mechanism for cross-border crisis management among globally systemically important banks will be established, enhancing cross-border regulatory cooperation and information sharing [1] Group 4: Risk Mitigation Strategies - The additional regulatory coverage will gradually expand to the non-bank sector, focusing on risk resolution in key regions and institutions [1] - The financial stability mechanism will be solidified, with continued accumulation of deposit insurance funds and financial stability guarantee funds, and exploration of a backup financing mechanism [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with a GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and effective financial measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets [1]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain reasonable growth in money and credit by utilizing various monetary policy tools, ensuring ample liquidity to meet the effective credit demands of the real economy [2]. - The PBOC plans to lower social financing costs by reducing policy interest rates and other related rates, thereby supporting the overall financing environment [2]. - There will be increased support for major strategic areas and weak links, with specific allocations such as 300 billion yuan for technology innovation and agricultural loans, and 500 billion yuan for consumer and elderly care loans [2]. - The PBOC will ensure the stability of the exchange rate, allowing the market to play a decisive role in its formation while maintaining the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [2]. Economic Indicators - By the end of 2025, the total social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) are projected to grow by 8.3% and 8.5% respectively, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - The growth rate of loans, after adjusting for local government debt impacts, is expected to be around 7%, indicating strong credit support [3]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are projected to be around 3.1% [3]. - Various loan categories, including technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital economy loans, are expected to see double-digit growth rates, with technology loans growing by 11.5% and green loans by 20.2% [3]. External Economic Environment - The global economic landscape is facing challenges such as insufficient growth momentum, increased trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies, leading to uncertainties in inflation and monetary policy adjustments [4]. - Despite these challenges, China's economic foundation remains strong, with advantages and resilience that support long-term positive trends [4]. Future Policy Directions - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be a flexible approach to using various policy tools to maintain liquidity and support balanced credit distribution, aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [5]. - The PBOC aims to enhance its macro-prudential management and financial stability frameworks to prevent systemic financial risks [6].

2月10日，中国人民银行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。其中提出，积极稳妥防范化解金 融风险。构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险防范处置机制。拓展丰富中央银行宏观审 慎与金融稳定功能，完善宏观审慎和金融稳定管理工具箱，维护金融市场平稳运行。从宏观、逆周期和 防传染的视角，强化系统性金融风险的监测、评估和预警，不断拓展宏观审慎管理覆盖范围。强化系统 重要性金融机构宏观审慎管理，纵深推进附加监管体系建设。进一步做实系统重要性银行附加监管，指 导入选银行持续完善恢复和处置计划，探索发挥风险管理前瞻指引作用。健全全球系统重要性银行跨境 危机管理小组机制，加强跨境监管合作与信息共享。稳步拓宽附加监管覆盖范围至非银领域。推进重点 地区和重点机构风险处置，强化中小金融机构风险识别和早期纠正。夯实金融稳定机制保障，继续扩大 存款保险基金、金融稳定保障基金积累，探索建立后备融资机制。 ...

央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。 继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具， 保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总 水平预期目标相匹配。 继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行 情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融 总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。进一步完善利率调控框架，强 化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，促 进社会综合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，有效落实好各 类结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the implementation probability of "similar ONRRP" tools in China is low due to significant mismatches with the domestic financial market structure and liquidity framework [1][4][5] - The macro-prudential management in China has officially entered a new paradigm of "comprehensive coverage" and "preventive measures," with a focus on building liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank financial institutions [1][2] - Experts believe that the liquidity support mechanism for non-bank institutions is an "emergency arrangement under specific scenarios" rather than a routine tool, reflecting a proactive approach to preventing systemic financial risks [1][6] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has outlined the core direction for macro-prudential management, emphasizing the need to expand the coverage of macro-prudential policies and innovate policy tools [2][3] - Non-bank financial institutions are now included in the core regulatory framework due to their significant role in managing assets worth trillions of yuan and their impact on the bond, stock, and derivatives markets [2][3] - The risks in the bond market, such as interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks, are more pronounced for non-bank financial sectors compared to banks, necessitating a mechanism for providing liquidity to non-bank institutions in specific scenarios [3][4] Group 3 - The discussion around the potential creation of "similar ONRRP" tools has gained traction, but experts argue that the necessity for such tools in China is low due to the lack of urgency in creating liquidity absorption tools [4][5] - The current macroeconomic environment in China, characterized by a stable lower bound for interest rates, does not present a pressing need for tools similar to the ONRRP used by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank institutions are being explored, with the central bank indicating a willingness to provide liquidity under specific conditions, such as significant deviations in market liquidity indicators [6][7] Group 4 - Future innovations in liquidity support tools may include specialized liquidity facilities for systemically important non-bank institutions and temporary liquidity support tools during systemic market pressures [7] - The design of these tools aims to comprehensively address various risk scenarios, allowing for flexibility in providing support to individual institutions or entire markets [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is enhancing its macro-prudential management framework, focusing on the establishment of liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank financial institutions as a proactive measure to prevent systemic financial risks [1][2]. Group 1: Macro-Prudential Management Developments - The PBOC's macro-prudential management is transitioning to a "comprehensive coverage" and "prevention-first" paradigm, with a focus on liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank financial institutions [2][3]. - The PBOC's policy focus from 2023 to 2024 is on defensive regulation and risk prevention in key areas, while 2025 marked a shift towards enhancing mechanisms and expanding functions within the regulatory framework [3][4]. Group 2: Liquidity Support Mechanisms - The liquidity support mechanism for non-bank financial institutions is designed as an emergency arrangement for specific scenarios, reflecting a forward-looking approach to macro-prudential management [1][8]. - Experts suggest that the PBOC may explore liquidity support tools similar to the Federal Reserve's ONRRP, but the likelihood of such tools being implemented in China is low due to structural differences in the financial market [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Focus on Non-Bank Financial Institutions - Non-bank financial institutions manage trillions of yuan in assets and play a significant role in the bond, stock, and derivatives markets, making their regulation crucial [5]. - The PBOC aims to gradually expand its regulatory coverage to include more systemically important financial institutions, enhancing monitoring of non-bank institutions and cross-border capital flows [5][6]. Group 4: Future Directions for Policy Tools - Future innovations in liquidity support tools may include specialized liquidity facilities for systemically important non-bank institutions, temporary liquidity support during systemic pressures, and expanded collateral options for non-bank institutions [9].

金融行业周报 ——25年券商业绩预喜，人民币贷款增速回落 证券分析师 证券研究报告 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月3日 1 核心观点 25年券商业绩预喜，人民币贷款增速回落 1、上市券商2025业绩密集预喜，或迎估值修复窗口期。截至1月30日，已有23家上市券商披露2025年业绩预告或快报，整 体实现较快增长，业绩增速较往年明显回暖。受益于权益市场回暖及资本市场活跃度提升，头部券商业绩表现稳健。其中， 中信证券2025年全年营收同比增长28.75%，归母净利润同比增长38.46%；国海证券营收同比增长7.14%，归母净利润同比 大幅增长78.88%。在"慢牛"市场环境及政策支持并购重组背景下，券商业绩修复趋势有望延续，头部券商相对优势进一 步巩固。 2、央行发布2025年四季度金融机构人民币各项贷款余额。2025年4季度末，金融机构各项人民币贷款余额同比增长6.4%， 较3季度末回落0 ...