Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the domestic urea market was in a pattern of supply surplus, with weak demand support. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The urea market remained in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and it was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities after clear positive signals [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, it was the off - season for domestic agricultural demand. Although exports continued, they could not digest domestic production. Enterprise inventories continued to rise, the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged, the spot price continued to fall, the futures price fluctuated, and both the basis and the inter - month spread reached historical lows [12]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic urea production was 5.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. With the return of maintenance devices, the daily output returned to a year - on - year high level, and the supply pressure was high [12]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the incremental demand mainly relied on exports. Exports increased significantly in August and were expected to remain at a high level in September. The production of compound fertilizers for autumn fertilizers began to decline, and the operating rate returned to a low level [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price continued to decline, and both coal - based and gas - based production profits were at recent lows. The 1 - 5 spread reached a new low, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the market structure was weak. The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: In September, enterprise inventories increased by 130,000 tons, and the latest inventory was 1.44 million tons, a year - on - year high. Port inventories declined from a high level, and the latest inventory was 415,000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when the price was low [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of futures contracts such as 09, 01, and 05 all changed to varying degrees. The prices of domestic spot markets in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine decreased, and international prices generally declined [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 139, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 137. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined [13]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The profit of fixed - bed production was at a low level compared to the same period, and the profit of gas - based production reached a new low in recent years [31]. - **Inventory**: After the holiday, enterprise inventories further increased, and port inventories declined from a high level [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: There were planned production - expansion projects for urea, with some enterprises expected to put new production capacity into operation in 2024 - 2025 [45]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of urea production returned to a medium - high level. There were many device maintenance situations, including policy - based, cost - based, and routine maintenance [47][50]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics. The operating rate of compound fertilizers declined, and the profit of compound fertilizer production also changed [56][58]. - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all changed [61]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all showed certain trends [64][66]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all affected the demand for urea. The export profit of urea was good, and the export volume also changed [72][82]. 3.6 Option - related - The trading volume, open interest, and PCR indicators of urea options all changed, and the volatility of options also showed certain characteristics [93][95]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The report presented the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry characteristics through diagrams [106][108][110].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a continued downward trend in prices due to an oversupply situation, with current spot prices nearing historical lows, and this trend is expected to persist [1][6]. Supply Dynamics - Urea production capacity is entering a new growth cycle, with an expected increase of over 7 million tons by 2025, leading to an average daily production increase of 15,000 to 20,000 tons year-on-year, currently at around 200,000 tons, which is a five-year high [2]. - Urea inventories are at elevated levels, with enterprise stocks around 1.2 million tons, also a five-year high, and are expected to continue accumulating due to the off-season for agricultural demand [2]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is weakening as the autumn fertilizer application period concludes, with lower urea usage due to a focus on high-phosphorus fertilizers and non-concentrated purchasing [3]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers has decreased from 42% to 38%, with expectations of continued decline, and finished product inventories are high at around 800,000 tons, marking a five-year peak [3]. - The production rate for melamine has significantly dropped from 72% to 46%, limiting its support for urea demand [5]. Cost Factors - The current coal market remains strong, with prices around 700 RMB per ton for 5500 kcal coal, providing some cost support for urea production, which has a complete cost range of 1,500 to 1,550 RMB per ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3, urea prices were boosted multiple times by domestic anti - involution measures, urea export quota news, and the friendly relationship between China and India. After the domestic positive news was realized, domestic demand was weak, prices declined successively, and the spot decline was greater than the futures decline, gradually turning into futures premium [5]. - In the context of loose supply and demand, urea remains in a weak - running state. The spot price may remain oscillating at a low level around 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. A negative feedback mechanism may form where low prices attract orders, but downstream buyers' "buy - on - rising" behavior leads to sporadic downstream demand. For the futures market, the 01 contract should pay short - term attention to the pressure level around 1,730 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract should focus on the 1,750/1,770 yuan/ton pressure levels. It is expected to mainly sell on rebounds in Q4 [6]. - On the supply side, affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, urea production decreased quarter - on - quarter. However, with subsequent capacity expansion and the resumption of factory operations, it is expected that after the production recovers, the daily urea output will still fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year due to high - level capacity [6][52]. - On the demand side, since Q3, the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but remained at the same level as previous years, without bringing new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined to digest high - level inventories. Industrial demand is relatively sluggish. Although the consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year, weak real - estate data has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the export quota is far less than the surplus in urea supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern [6]. Summaries by Directory Q3 Market Review - Urea prices in Q3 showed a complex trend. Initially, prices were affected by factors such as gas - head device复产, changes in downstream factory operating rates, and export news, resulting in fluctuations including price drops, rebounds, and high - level consolidations. Eventually, after the export positive news was realized, domestic demand was insufficient, and the market was under pressure to decline due to oversupply [9]. - Due to continued capacity expansion and high - level inventory, urea prices have been lower year - on - year this year and are currently at the lowest level in the same period. It is expected to fluctuate between 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton in Q4. After the price fell below 1,600 yuan/ton, downstream buyers started to increase purchases as the futures price rebounded. However, domestic demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, and a negative feedback mechanism may form [21]. - In terms of the term structure, urea maintains a contango structure with near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 1 - 5 spread remains in a discount state. With insufficient domestic demand and continuous inventory accumulation in the industry, the 01 contract oscillates at a low level. It is expected that the 1 - 5 spread will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [27]. - Currently, the basis is low, and the market is in a futures premium stage, suitable for selling hedging. After the basis strengthens, hedging supplies may enter the market, increasing market liquidity. The overall basis fluctuation is small, and it is expected to oscillate with a small amplitude in Q4 [37]. - According to Zhengshang Institute data, the settlement price of the 09 contract was 1,643 yuan/ton, with a 17 - yuan/ton premium for Henan spot and a 37 - yuan/ton premium for Hebei spot. The delivery volume of the UR2509 contract was about 4,274 lots, and the nominal delivery volume was about 85,480 tons, an increase of 3,204 lots compared to the 09 contract last year. The significant increase in futures delivery volume and registered warehouse receipts shows the loose market pattern of urea this year [41]. Supply Analysis - As of now, 3.12 million tons of new urea capacity have been put into operation in 2025, and another 3.56 million tons are expected to be commissioned in Q4. Although some backward capacity is being phased out, the overall capacity is still increasing [47]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative urea production was about 47.4467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2092 million tons (+9.74%). Affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, production decreased quarter - on - quarter. After subsequent capacity expansion and factory resumption, daily production is expected to fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year [52]. - According to Longzhong's statistics, about 63.8 million tons of capacity within a 20 - year operating cycle account for 84% of the total capacity. The impact of anti - involution measures on urea production is limited. Although coal prices have increased significantly due to anti - involution, coal - based enterprises still have profits, so the impact on urea is currently small. However, if coal prices continue to rise or urea prices fall, cost support may emerge [56][60]. - As of September 25, the gross profit of fixed - bed urea production dropped to - 247 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production dropped to - 225 yuan/ton, while the water - coal - slurry production still had positive gross profit. The probability of large - scale production cuts by natural - gas - based enterprises is low due to long - term contracts with upstream suppliers [60]. - Historically, the urea price in the Shandong market was previously benchmarked against the fixed - bed production cost, and a rebound was likely when approaching the cost line. Since July 2024, the spot market price has gradually moved towards the water - coal - slurry cost, and currently, the cost support of water - coal - slurry is weak [65]. Demand Analysis - In terms of demand structure, agricultural demand is the most important, accounting for about 49%, and compound fertilizer demand accounts for about 25%, with the combined proportion close to 75% [74]. - It is estimated that the wheat sowing area in China in 2025 will be 355 million mu, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year. The corn sowing area will be about 44.269 million hectares, with a production of 298 million tons and a yield of 6,733 kg/ha, increasing by 1.08%, 2.76%, and 3.87% respectively compared to the previous year. The agricultural demand for urea is expected to increase steadily by about 5% in 2025 [78]. - The 2024 - 2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve project bidding document has adjusted the off - season storage rules. The proportion of urea in the reserve fertilizer has been reduced from not less than 30% to not less than 20%, and the single - target quantity in some provinces has been adjusted. The off - season storage enthusiasm is expected to increase this year, and the preparation time may be earlier and more dispersed than last year [80]. - Since July, the urea price has been oscillating downward, and the spread between compound fertilizer and urea has widened, leading to a recovery in factory profits. However, due to pre - emptive demand in the first half of the year and high finished - product inventories, factories are currently focusing on inventory digestion, and there has been no significant increase in the operating rate [85]. - As of September 26, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants was 35.27%, with an average operating rate of 40% this year. After the demand was pre - empted in the first half of the year, the operating rate has been insufficient. Although the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized in Q3, it has not brought new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined [90]. - Other industrial demands include urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, vehicle urea, and thermal power denitration. The consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year. However, the real - estate market has been under pressure in 2025, with a 12.9% year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment and declines in new construction, construction, and completion areas, which has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand [94]. - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 60.58%, and the average operating rate from January to September was 62%, flat year - on - year. Since August, the operating rate has been lower year - on - year. With the improvement of downstream demand and the resumption of previously - maintained factories, the demand for urea from melamine is expected to improve marginally [98]. - In 2025, the urea export policy has been relaxed, and domestic prices have been boosted multiple times since Q3. However, the export quota is far less than the surplus in supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. As the export window closes, the boost from exports is expected to fade [104]. Inventory - As of September 25, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1218,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 204,300 tons. The in - factory inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, about 20% higher year - on - year. Since April, the in - factory inventory has been oscillating upwards. With high production and insufficient domestic demand, inventory has continued to accumulate even with the gradual opening of exports. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase as there is no large - scale procurement demand for autumn fertilizers and the off - season storage is approaching [112]. - Since Q3, the number of days of pending orders for upstream urea factories has been higher year - on - year, mainly supported by export orders. As the export window closes, the shipment pressure of upstream factories may increase [112]. - India's urea inventory is currently at a relatively low level in recent years, and 6 - 9 months account for 70% of its annual demand. India has issued multiple tenders in Q3. The latest tender prices are lower than expected, and the domestic market has not been boosted, with the expected Chinese participation volume around 500,000 - 700,000 tons [114][116]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for urea from 2019 - 2025E, showing the production, export, various demand components, total domestic demand, and surplus volume in each year. In 2025E, the production is expected to be 69.76 million tons, exports 4 million tons, and the surplus is 130,000 tons [118].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Before the National Day holiday, urea prices are expected to fluctuate due to pre - holiday price cuts to attract orders and some information disturbances. The spot price has limited downside space before and during the holiday, and the futures will fluctuate after the spot price stabilizes [2][3][4]. - Medium - term: The trend is weak. Although exports are accelerating, the pre - stocked trade volume limits price drivers. Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and export growth is expected to be unable to offset the weakening domestic demand. The price will gradually approach the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed plants in northern regions [4]. - Trading strategies: - Unilateral: Fluctuate before the National Day; contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak trend, while contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong with peak - season demand expectations. For contract 01, the upper pressure is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static lower support is 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton, with the dynamic support expected to decline. It is recommended to short at high prices [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spreads for 11 - 05/12 - 05 and 1 - 5 at high prices [4]. - Inter - commodity: No recommendations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - Capacity: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 tons [27]. - Production: From September 18 - 24, 2025, China's urea production was 140.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.15 tons (5.38%). Next week, the production is expected to be around 140 - 141 tons, with little change. The production profit is at the break - even point, and the daily production remains high [2][32]. - Cost: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost corresponding to urea currently shows a profit [35][40]. - Net imports (exports): Export policy adjustments may increase future export volumes. In 2025, as of June, the export volume was 6.6 tons [45]. Demand - Agricultural demand: Seasonally, the demand is strong. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea in corn cultivation. However, currently, the northern agricultural top - dressing demand has basically ended, and the year - on - year growth rate has declined significantly [2][51][54]. - Industrial demand: - Compound fertilizer: The production cost, inventory, and production profit data are provided. Currently, the finished - product sales pressure is high, the operating rate is low, and the demand for urea raw materials is limited [58][59][60]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate data are provided [62][63]. - Real estate: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [64]. Inventory - Factory inventory: On September 24, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 121.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.29 tons (4.54%). The overall inventory shows an upward trend, with some regional differences [3]. - Port inventory: As of September 25, 2025 (week 39), China's urea port sample inventory was 49.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.97 tons (3.82%). The port inventory is affected by the approaching domestic holiday, with both cargo collection and departure [3]. Valuation The report provides data on urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices at home and abroad, which can be used for price and spread analysis [8][12][18][23].

Group 1 - The current urea market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with daily production gradually recovering, but seasonal demand is not meeting expectations [1] - The low-end price of small particle urea in mainstream regions has recently touched 1580 yuan/ton, while the futures main contract price has been adjusted to around 1670 yuan/ton due to weak market sentiment [1] - There is still an expectation for demand improvement, with a need to monitor export orders and autumn preparation for fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The short-term "weak reality" is evident as the sluggish compound fertilizer market directly drags down urea demand, with sample enterprise inventories remaining at a historical high of 826,200 tons [2] - Compound fertilizer companies are adopting a "production based on sales" strategy, maintaining cautious procurement of urea and focusing on minimum safety stock levels [2] - The long-term "strong expectation" is driven by two main factors: the approaching end of the export window and the gradual initiation of storage work, which is expected to support demand [2] Group 3 - Supply is gradually recovering due to the resumption of previously shut down production facilities, with the overall industry operating rate exceeding 81% and daily production surpassing 200,000 tons [3] - The commissioning of three large urea production facilities in the third quarter adds approximately 1.5 million tons/year of new capacity, intensifying supply pressure and altering regional supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 4 - Due to lower-than-expected demand release and continuous supply increase, industry inventories have risen to 1,165,300 tons, nearly a 50% increase since early Q2 [4] - High inventory levels are causing significant capital occupation pressure for companies, leading some to adopt discount promotion strategies to accelerate cash flow [4] - The urea market is likely to experience a dual increase in supply and demand, with supply expected to rise due to the resumption of production and new installations, while demand improvement relies on the rapid execution of export orders and concentrated autumn demand release [4]

Report Title - Urea Weekly Report: Nissan Rises, Supply Pressure Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The market is currently weak, with rising enterprise inventories and falling spot prices. Although the valuation is at a low level, there is limited downside space, but there is no driving force for an upward trend. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market continued to fluctuate weakly, closing slightly lower for the week, with prices approaching the lower edge of the range. Enterprises faced pressure to receive orders before the holiday, and the spot market remained weak. The basis and inter - month spreads fluctuated weakly at low levels [12]. - **Supply**: The domestic urea plant operating rate was 81.22%, a 1.88% increase from the previous week, and it is expected to continue rising. The latest daily production was 196,000 tons, and supply pressure has increased again. The enterprise's advance orders were 6.18 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous week, and market sentiment remained cautious [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer operating rate was 38.63%, a slight increase from the previous week, and it is currently mainly producing wheat fertilizer. It is the off - season for agricultural demand, and there has been no concentrated release of agricultural demand. Coal - based production profits have further declined, and attention should be paid to cost support [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The inter - month spreads and basis were generally weak, both at low levels compared to the same period last year. The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. Urea was undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories were 1.1653 million tons, a 32,600 - ton increase from the previous week, and at a high level compared to the same period last year, indicating weak domestic demand. Port inventories were 516,000 tons, a 33,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts were 1,744, 1,661, and 1,722 respectively. The 09 contract increased by 174, the 01 contract decreased by 2, and the 05 contract increased by 4 compared to the previous week. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 176, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 170 [13]. - **Spot Market**: The latest prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were 1,640, 1,650, and 1,680 respectively. The Shandong price remained unchanged, while the Henan and Hebei prices increased by 10. The Shandong, Henan, and Hebei basis were - 21, - 11, and 19 respectively, with increases of 2, 12, and 12 compared to the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizers (45%S) in Shandong and Hubei were 2,930 and 2,950 respectively. The Shandong price decreased by 20, while the Hubei price remained unchanged. The prices of melamine decreased by 17. The export profit of urea increased by 85 [13]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The profit of fixed - bed production decreased again [28]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories were 1.1653 million tons, a 32,600 - ton increase from the previous week. Port inventories were 516,000 tons, a 33,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [12]. 4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There were planned production - increasing devices in some enterprises, such as Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [42]. - **Urea Operating Rate**: The supply has recovered, and the domestic urea plant operating rate was 81.22%, a 1.88% increase from the previous week [12]. - **Enterprise Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out maintenance, including Hebei Zhengyuan Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., etc. Some enterprises also have planned maintenance in the future, such as Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [47][48]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: There are seasonal characteristics in domestic and international fertilizer demand. The peak season in China is from March to July, while in India it is from June to October, and in the United States it is about one month earlier than in China [111][112]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer operating rate was 38.63%, a slight increase from the previous week, and it is currently mainly producing wheat fertilizer [12]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: Attention should be paid to the price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate [59]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume also shows certain trends [62][64]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as the real estate market and export volume [70][73]. - **Export**: The export profit is good, and the export volume shows certain changes [80][81]. 6. Option - related - **Urea Options**: The trading volume and open interest of urea options, as well as the PCR of open interest and trading volume, show certain trends. The volatility of urea options also has a certain relationship with the futures price [92][94][101]. 7. Industrial Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: It shows the characteristics and structure of the urea industry chain, as well as the research framework analysis [104][106][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, under the situation of weak supply and demand of urea, both spot and futures prices declined. The high inventory of urea factories restricted the upward space of prices. Currently, the price has dropped to an acceptable low - price range in the market. After the futures sentiment improved, spot low - price purchases began, and the futures market started a technical rebound [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, affected by the continuous decline of futures, the domestic demand was insufficient, and the spot market was weak, showing a continuous price - reduction trend. Since the weekend, the urea price continued to decline steadily, and new orders had not improved. However, there was an intention to purchase at the current price. Today, affected by the futures rebound, the low - price spot transactions were smooth [4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures on the disk continued to decline. By September 12, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price on September 5. The weekly trading volume was 1,496.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 388.56 million tons; the open interest was 817.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146.72 million tons. The futures decline was weaker than the spot decline, and the basis weakened. As of September 15, the 01 contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 yuan/ton. On September 15, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,613, a week - on - week decrease of 154 [6][9] 3.3 Urea Supply End - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From September 4 to September 10, the weekly output of urea was 1.2993 billion tons, an increase of 20.3 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and the average daily output was 185,600 tons. It is expected that the probability of output increase in the next cycle is relatively large. The coal price decreased, and the domestic liquefied natural gas price also declined last week. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, while the methanol spot price increased [13][15][16] 3.4 Urea Demand End - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat compared with the previous week. After the parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories decreased continuously this month. However, the fertilizer stockpiling was nearly 70% - 80%, and the subsequent increment was limited. The capacity utilization rate of melamine decreased, and the demand for urea increased insufficiently [18] 3.5 Inventory Data - As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 382.8 million tons. The port sample inventory was 549.4 million tons, a decrease of 71.5 million tons compared with the previous week [21] 3.6 International Market - India's NFL's urea import tender on September 2 determined a transaction of about 2.03 billion tons, and it is estimated that China's urea supply in this tender may be 700 - 800 million tons. As of September 12, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in different regions showed different trends of increase and decrease [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the UR601 contract, urea is likely to decline in the short - term but has limited downside space, with support at the 1700 price level [3]. - The reasons include increasing domestic plant maintenance plans with limited impact on overall supply, high production and operation rates year - on - year; domestic demand entering the off - season, limited overall support from industrial compound fertilizer demand; weakening cost support, with urea cost support moving down to around 1500 - 1600; and the gradual implementation of export policies, with attention on the specific export volume later [3]. - Urea is in a pattern with upward pressure and downward support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - **Cost - side Logic**: Recently, coal prices have risen slightly, but coal - based production costs are at a low level. This week, the ex - factory price of urea has decreased, and the profit of coal - based urea has shrunk. The natural gas price in the southwest region has remained stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has been stable [7]. - **Supply - side Logic**: Recently, domestic maintenance devices have increased, but it has little impact on the supply pattern. Domestic production remains high year - on - year, and the overall supply remains loose [7]. - **Demand - side Logic**: In agriculture, the current demand is in the traditional off - season, with weak overall support. In industry, the operation rate of compound fertilizers has continued to increase, but downstream procurement is generally cautious, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. In terms of exports, this week, the market reported that China has a new third - batch of export quotas, with an estimated quantity of 70 - 100 tons, and the total export quota this year has reached over 4 million tons. From the current port inventory data, domestic exports are being carried out in an orderly manner [7]. 3.2 Urea Price Changes - **Spot Price**: This week, the domestic urea spot market stopped falling and rose, with the average price in the mainstream regions rising by about 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. However, the domestic demand has continued to weaken, and the price increase lasted for a short time [24]. - **Regional Price Difference**: This week, the regional price differences are within the normal range [36]. - **Futures Price**: With the implementation of the third - batch of export quota news, the speculative sentiment in the market has subsided, and the UR01 contract has declined weakly in the premium pattern [8]. - **Price Difference/Base Difference/Monthly Difference**: This week, the 9 - 1 price difference has strengthened by 3 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Due to the rise in spot prices and the decline of the futures market, the base difference has strengthened. For example, the base difference of the 01 contract in Henan has strengthened by 48 yuan/ton compared with last week [92]. 3.3 Urea Profit - **Coal - based Production**: Recently, the coal price in the production area has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of coal - based urea has increased slightly [65]. - **Gas - based Production**: The natural gas price under the agreement is stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has remained stable [65]. 3.4 Urea and Other Fertilizer Ratios - Currently, the ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the ratios to phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers are at a relatively low level compared with previous years [69]. 3.5 Overseas Price and Price Difference - India has carried out a new round of tenders, and with China's clearer policy of allowing more urea exports, the international urea price has fallen this week [84]. 3.6 Urea Production, Operation, and Inventory - **Production and Operation**: According to the Longzhong data, this week, the domestic urea production was 1.3611 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from last week, and the operation rate was 83.99%, an increase of 0.77%. According to the Baichuan data, the production was 1.3865 million tons, an increase of 8000 tons from the previous period, and the operation rate was 84.72%, an increase of 0.49% [95][103]. - **Device Investment and Maintenance**: As of August 2025, the newly - invested production capacity this year is 1.85 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 2.45%. It is estimated that the newly - added production capacity in 2025 will be 4.94 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55%. This week, the domestic urea device maintenance loss was 179,000 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from last week [108][111]. - **Inventory**: This week, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, and the port inventory was 501,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from last week [160]. 3.7 Urea Downstream Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: This week, the compound fertilizer market price was stable, the operation rate decreased by 2.64% to 40.84%, and the inventory increased by 63,000 tons to 889,500 tons compared with last week [132]. - **Melamine**: This week, the melamine production was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 1600 tons from last week, and the operation rate was 46.60%, a decrease of 3.22% [140].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand weakened and urea ex - factory quotes mainly declined. This week, due to the new Indian tender, urea prices stopped falling and rebounded. Some device overhauls led to the daily output dropping to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender of 2 million tons with a September 2nd bid - closing date and an end - of - October shipping date, along with relaxed export policies, boosted the domestic market sentiment. However, overall demand was declining, with high inventories and cautious traders. In the short term, domestic demand was limited, but the Indian tender and low domestic prices were expected to support the market and lead to a short - term bottoming [4]. - Trading strategies include going long on the single - side when prices are low, observing for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment was stable, with ex - factory quotes in some areas stabilizing or adjusting. Shandong's quotes rebounded, Henan's remained stable, and prices in the delivery area and its surrounding areas were expected to decline. The overall supply was abundant, and demand was weak, but the Indian tender had a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250807 - 0813), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 85.51%, up 1.85% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 75.77%, down 0.76% month - on - month. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.10%, down 1.12% month - on - month [5]. - **Demand**: In the 33rd week of 2025 (20250808 - 0814), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points from the previous week. In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250801 - 0807), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, up 2.82 percentage points month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizer's urea demand was 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points month - on - month. As of August 13, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.29 days, down 0.24 days from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory**: On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month - on - month, with a decline rate of 3.93% [5]. - **Valuation**: The prices of Jincheng anthracite lump coal and Yulin pulverized coal rebounded, while the urea spot price declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 110 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 210 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 360 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, with a basis of - 80 yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 17 yuan/ton [5].