Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing price stabilization due to a combination of supply-side adjustments and steady agricultural demand, despite previous pressures from high domestic supply and fluctuating export volumes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 18, urea futures main contract prices increased by 1.67% to 1708 CNY/ton, with low-end product ex-factory prices rising by 10-20 CNY/ton to 1610-1670 CNY/ton [1]. - The CFR price for small granular urea in China was reported at 387.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous week [3]. - Urea prices are expected to remain within the range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton for most of 2025, with a central price around 1750 CNY/ton [4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - National urea production from January to November 2025 reached 65.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with November production hitting 6.01 million tons [2]. - The operating rate for coal-based urea production was 89.6%, up by 2.9 percentage points month-on-month, while the natural gas-based urea operating rate was 55.2%, down by 9.9 percentage points [2]. - New production capacities are expected to increase total urea capacity by 5.6% by 2025, with significant contributions from several companies in Gansu [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen a slight reduction in inventory over six consecutive weeks, with total inventory dropping to 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous period [3]. - Port inventories have shown a slight increase, indicating a mixed inventory trend across different storage locations [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea is gradually increasing, supported by stable supply and price stabilization efforts [4]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers was reported at 40.6%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - The winter season's natural gas-based urea production facility maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in operating rates, with companies focusing on essential purchases [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of urea declined again after the positive factors were digested and the energy - chemical sector weakened. However, considering the current demand, seasonal decline in gas - based supply, and high - level inventory reduction, the downside space is expected to be limited. The strategy is to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Supported by compound fertilizer and reserve demand, the price had been rising. This week, it declined due to positive factor digestion and the weakening of the energy - chemical sector. Currently, demand is okay, gas - based supply is seasonally decreasing, and enterprise inventory continues to decline from a high level [12]. - **Supply**: Domestic enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, a 0.02% week - on - week increase, and is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term. The latest daily production is 19.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.04 million tons [12]. - **Demand**: Reserve demand is gradually decreasing, while compound fertilizer demand is fair, with a 40.62% operating rate, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Future demand should focus on changes in off - season storage and export demand [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Enterprise profits weakened slightly again and are still at a low level. The basis strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread declined [12]. - **Valuation**: Export profits are at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: This week, enterprise inventory was 1.2342 billion tons, a decrease of 563,000 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline from a high level. Port inventory was 123 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons week - on - week, and the speed of goods gathering at ports accelerated [12]. - **Market Logic**: The decrease in reserve demand and the weakening sentiment in the energy - chemical sector led to the price decline, but the downside space is limited [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of 09, 01, and 05 contracts all decreased compared to a week ago. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1 [13]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: The prices in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan remained unchanged, and in Hebei decreased by 20. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all increased [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Hubei increased by 50, and the price of melamine increased by 16. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 1, in Hubei increased by 20, and the profit of melamine increased by 46 [13]. - **International Prices**: International prices such as FOB Arabian Gulf, FOB Baltic, etc., all decreased, and the export profit of urea decreased by 76 [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The production profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production all had certain fluctuations, and enterprise profits weakened slightly again and were at a low level [30][31][34]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory continued to decline from a high level, and port inventory increased. The inventory of urea warehouses also had corresponding changes [38][42]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: The gas - based operating rate decreased seasonally, while the coal - based operating rate increased. The overall supply is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the future [48]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out maintenance, resulting in certain production losses. There are also some planned maintenance devices in the future [51][52]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics [56]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 40.62%, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. The production profit and the ratio of urea to compound fertilizer also had corresponding changes [59][60]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all had certain fluctuations [68]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all had corresponding changes [71]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all had certain impacts on the demand for urea [79]. - **Export**: The export profit of urea was at a high level, and the export volume and the export volumes of other fertilizers also had corresponding changes [90]. 3.6. Options - Related - **Urea Options**: The trading volume, open interest, and PCR of urea options all had certain fluctuations, and the volatility of urea options also changed with the futures price [98]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: The report analyzed the characteristics of the urea industry chain, including the fertilizer demand of different crops in different regions and different seasons, and the seasonal characteristics of global fertilizer demand [111].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that urea would oscillate downward as it returned to fundamentals; this week's view is that the supply - demand pattern has further deteriorated, leading to an enlarged decline in urea prices [3] - Currently, the domestic supply is abundant, with the daily output dropping below 190,000 tons due to some device overhauls. The overall demand is on a downward trend, and the inventory of urea production enterprises has increased to around 1.1327 million tons [3] - The new round of Indian tender results show a total tender volume of 2.03 million tons. Although the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and relaxed export policies have a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment, the domestic demand is still limited in the short term [3] - It is expected that the decline of urea will continue to widen in the short term. The trading strategy is to go short in the short - term for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Analyzes the supply - demand situation of urea, including supply changes due to device overhauls, demand from different sectors such as agriculture and industry, and the impact of Indian tenders and export policies. Proposes trading strategies based on the analysis [3] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In the 36th week of 2025 (20250904 - 0910), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity was 81.47%, a 1.61% increase from the previous week; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 72.34%, unchanged from the previous week. In Shandong, the utilization rate of urea production capacity was 80.21%, a 3.62% decrease from the previous week [4] - **Demand**: In the 37th week of 2025 (20250905 - 0911), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 55.38%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the previous week; the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 37.82%, a 4.68 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. As of September 12, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 920 tons, a 5.75% increase from the previous week. As of September 10, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.88 days, a 7.33% increase from the previous period [4] - **Inventory**: On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, a 3.44% increase from the previous week. As of September 11, 2025 (the 37th week), the sample inventory at ports was 549,400 tons, an 11.52% decrease from the previous week [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal fluctuated slightly. The urea spot price declined, with a loss of 30 yuan/ton for fixed - bed production, a profit of 100 yuan/ton for coal - water slurry production, and a profit of 300 yuan/ton for entrained - flow bed production. The futures price dropped, with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 55 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Coal Industry - Domestic coal production has increased to an average of 4 million tons per day, with Ordos region's coal operating rate at 78% and Yulin region at 46%, indicating a stable supply [1] - Coal prices have started to decline from high levels, while demand from power plants has shown a gradual increase, with current port inventories rising to over 26 million tons [1][2] - The operating rate of coal-based urea production is at 87.53%, up 4 percentage points from last month, with daily production at 19.8 million tons, indicating a further loosening of domestic supply [2] Group 2: Urea Market - Urea prices are holding steady at 1660-1700 RMB per ton, with cash flow profits for coal-based urea around 200 RMB per ton for fixed bed units and 280 RMB per ton for gas flow bed units [2] - Urea inventory levels are high, with total inventory at 1.2905 million tons, down 73,400 tons from the previous week, but still at historically high levels [5] - The demand for urea is supported by increased procurement activities in Northeast China and the upcoming spring fertilizer production in Central China, which may provide some price support [4][7] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer - The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is steadily increasing, with Northeast regions actively procuring fertilizers, which strengthens the demand for urea [4] - The fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons has been issued, but the impact on the domestic market is expected to be short-lived as the focus returns to domestic fundamentals [4] - As of the end of November, overall inventory levels for compound fertilizers are expected to reach around 30%, indicating a stable supply situation [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, with the subsequent upward driving force depending on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The continuous destocking of visible inventory supports the price. [2][3] - In the short term, the urea valuation range has shifted upward. The upper static valuation pressure for futures is around 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, while the lower support for the 01 contract is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton. [1] - The trading volume was 86,067 lots, a decrease from 109,007 lots the previous day; the open interest of the 01 contract was 219,302 lots, a decrease of 426 lots. [1] - The number of warehouse receipts was 7,887 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; the trading volume was 289.568 million yuan, a decrease of 77.098 million yuan. [1] - The basis in Shandong region was -7 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan; the basis of Fengxi - disk was -137 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan; the basis of Dongguang - disk was 3 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan. [1] - The spread between UR01 - UR05 was -65, an increase of 4. [1] Spot Market - The factory prices of some urea manufacturers changed, with the price of Yankuang Xinjiang decreasing by 15 yuan to 1320 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing increasing by 20 yuan to 1700 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 20 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton. [1] - The prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi regions both decreased by 10 yuan, to 1680 yuan/ton and 1540 yuan/ton respectively. [1] Supply - side Important Indicators - The operating rate was 84.10%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2400 tons. [1] Industry News - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. [2] - The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in some provinces increased. The overall inventory showed a stable decline due to reserve demand and downstream restocking. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December, on the supply side, previously shut - down coal - based plants will resume operations, and new production capacities will be released, but gas - based plants will start to shut down for maintenance. Domestic supply will remain stable at a high level, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. On the demand side, agricultural demand will be generally stable. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and spring fertilizer production will be advanced. Winter storage will continue in the Northeast, and some enterprises will stock up at low prices. With the fourth batch of export quotas released, attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders. Overall, urea prices in December are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5][98]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the domestic urea supply will be high and stable, and the demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [6][98]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In November, the ex - factory prices of domestic urea in major regions fluctuated. The daily production of domestic urea increased to over 200,000 tons, with sufficient overall supply. The impact of exports on the domestic market gradually faded, and the market returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The overall demand was stable, and the ex - factory prices of urea in major regions fluctuated between 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and ended the month at around 1570 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][11]. - The main futures contract of urea fluctuated widely, with the center slightly moving up. In the first half of November, it was affected by the fourth batch of quotas and rebounded continuously, reaching a maximum of 1679 yuan/ton. In the second half, it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals and declined weakly. By the end of the month, the 2601 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. (2) Supply Analysis - New Production Mostly Concentrated in the Second Half of the Year - From January to November 2025, 450,000 tons of new domestic urea plants were put into production. In November, 70,000 tons of new plants were expected to be put into operation. By the end of the year, the total domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach about 8.26 million tons [31][33]. - From January to October, the cumulative domestic urea production reached 5.906 million tons, a significant increase of 430,000 tons or 7.86% compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the production in November will be 615,000 tons, and the total production from January to November will reach 6.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 471,000 tons or 7.85% [35]. - In December, coal prices are expected to decline first and then rise. As coal prices fluctuate and urea spot prices rebound, coal - based production profits will slightly expand. The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate [39][46][52]. (3) Export - Related Factors - India's urea import demand may decrease in 2025, but the reduction will be limited. The fourth batch of export quotas has been released, and it is estimated that there will still be about 600,000 tons of exports from November to December [58][63]. (4) Demand Improvement in December - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [69]. - In December, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is not expected to have significant highlights. The capacity utilization rate of China's melamine in the 48th week of 2025 (November 21 - 27) was 60.80% on average, down 1.40 percentage points from the previous week [75][77]. - In December, compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production. Agricultural top - dressing still has some demand, but it is limited. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and the production of spring fertilizer will be advanced. Winter storage in the Northeast will continue to support the prices of large - granular urea [84][90][92]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply will be stable at a high level, and demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [98]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - As the reserve demand and export stocking progress, the short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also boosted demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, leading to a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened. The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downward space due to export policies and cost support, and no significant upward - driving factors in the short term. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: With the progress of reserve demand and export stocking, short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also driven up demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, resulting in a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The enterprise operation rate is 83.91%, a 0.17% decrease from the previous period, but it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. The daily production is 20.15 tons, expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The enterprise's advance orders are 7.12 days, a 0.59 - day decrease from the previous period [12]. - **Demand**: The profits of all production processes are at a low level. The compound fertilizer operation rate is 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous period, and it will continue to increase seasonally. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Currently, the domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton decrease from the previous period, due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking. The port inventory is 10 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from the previous period, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. - **Market Logic**: The combination of reserve demand and export benefits has led to a reduction in high - level enterprise inventory, and the supply - demand has slightly improved. However, the absolute inventory level of enterprises is still high, and the price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts have changed, with the 09 contract decreasing by 14, the 01 contract increasing by 2, and the 05 contract increasing by 1. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads have also changed [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have increased to varying degrees, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased, but the profits of compound fertilizers and melamine have changed differently [13]. - **International Market**: The international prices of urea have increased, and the export profit has reached a high level [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The production profit is at a low level but has slightly rebounded [30]. - **Inventory** - **Enterprise Inventory**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, mainly due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking [12]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operation Rate**: The urea operation rate has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year [41]. - **Device Maintenance** - **Current Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a certain amount of production loss [44]. - **Planned Maintenance**: Some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: The consumption of urea shows certain seasonal characteristics [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operation rate of compound fertilizers is mainly increasing seasonally, and the profit has changed [53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources have changed [56]. - **Melamine**: The operation rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume has also changed [59]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports [67]. - **Export**: The export profit is at a high level, and the export volume has changed [77]. 3.6. Options - Related - The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of urea options have changed, which can reflect the market's expectations and sentiment [91][97]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics, which help to understand the overall structure and characteristics of the urea industry [100][102][104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Urea is expected to trade within the valuation range and face short - term pressure in the market [1] - Short - term urea is expected to move in a volatile manner, with the overall upward trend of spot prices expected to slow down, and incremental warehouse receipts putting pressure on the upside of futures prices [3][4] - The domestic urea fundamental pressure is relatively large, but the downward driving force is weakened under the policy regulation. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,640 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,648 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume was 142,319 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 254,022 lots, down 3,552 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,812 tons, up 397 tons; the trading volume was 468.992 million yuan, down 110.461 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 30, up 10; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 140, up 20; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was - 30, up 20; the spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 77, down 5 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of urea in many enterprises remained unchanged, and the trading price of dealers in Shandong area was 1,610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.34 percentage points, and the daily output was 196,680 tons, down 800 tons [2] 2. Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The inventory of some enterprises increased due to factors such as market sentiment and environmental protection warnings, while the inventory of some enterprises decreased [3] 3. Futures Research - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]