2025 年 06 月 24 日 尿素：地缘冲突缓解，偏弱运行 【行业新闻】 1. 上周一至周三，出口板块投机性偏强带动国内成交好转。周四至周末，出口集中采购一轮后， 内需偏弱格局下，尿素成交明显转弱。整体来看，上周初反弹过后，尿素现货重回弱势格局。 2025 年 6 月 18 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 113.60 万吨，较上周减少 4.11 万吨，环比减少 3.49%。本周期国内尿素企业库存呈现下降，近期尿素集港量呈现增加，国际地域冲突引发国 内外尿素价格上涨，带动国内农业需求释放，尿素工厂出货量增加，但部分区域企业存在库 存增加趋势，整体尿素去库有限。其中企业库存增加的省份：安徽、甘肃、海南、河北、湖 北、辽宁、宁夏、青海、新疆、云南。企业库存减少的省份：河南、黑龙江、江苏、江西、内 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 产 业 服 务 研 究 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of geopolitical events, specifically Egypt's gas supply cut, Iran's production halt, and Russia's production reduction, leading to a sudden evaporation of 20% of global capacity, which may drive up urea prices further [1] Group 1 - Egypt's gas supply cut has contributed to a reduction in global production capacity [1] - Iran's production halt adds to the supply constraints in the market [1] - Russia's production reduction further exacerbates the situation, collectively resulting in a 20% loss of global capacity [1] Group 2 - The combination of these geopolitical factors is likely to push urea prices higher [1] - The market is closely monitoring these developments for potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The recovery timeline for urea production in Iran or Egypt remains uncertain, indicating potential upward price movement in the future [1] - European importers are increasingly viewing urea as a critical commodity, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [1] Industry Summary - Urea prices are expected to have upward potential due to the uncertain recovery of production in key regions [1] - The demand for urea in Europe is rising, which may influence global pricing strategies [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in urea inventory in China, raising concerns about potential further price declines in the market [1] - India's recent urea tender has drawn attention, indicating a shift in demand dynamics within the region [1] Industry Summary - China's urea inventory has seen a notable rise, which could lead to downward pressure on prices [1] - The recent urea tender from India suggests a potential increase in demand, which may influence regional pricing strategies [1]

1. 国内需求偏弱且出口实际流速偏慢的背景下，贸易商投机性逐步走弱，部分工厂价格下调。 尿素贸易商报价伴随投机性减弱有所下调，预计现货后续中长周期视角下呈现震荡承压的状 态。截至 2025 年 6 月 4 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 103.54 万吨，较上周增加 5.48 万吨，环 比增加 5.59%。本周期尿素企业库存继续小幅增加。一方面，部分尿素企业接出口订单，因处 于法检期间，尿素货源暂时被锁定。另一方面，国内尿素需求不温不火，局部农业需求有所 增量，但仍有部分区域尿素企业出货不畅。其中企业库存增加的省份：安徽、甘肃、海南、 河北、河南、湖北、江西、内蒙古、青海、山东、四川、云南。企业库存减少的省份：黑龙 商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 09 日 尿素：偏弱运行 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,720 | 1,722 | - 2 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | ...

期货盯盘神器专属文章 亚洲尿素周报：尿素价格已逼近1700关口，但后市仍不宜过度悲观？除了即将到来的夏季需求外，目前 已成交X万吨的出口也将为价格带来支撑？ 相关链接 ...

观点：政策左右 南华尿素产业链数据周报20250602 尿素周报观点 供应：本周期部分企业检修：兖矿鲁南化工。本周期恢复的企业：江苏晋煤恒盛化工、云南大为制氨、安徽泉盛化 工。下周尿素日产量将在 20.5万吨附近。 张博（Z0021070） 尿素区域现货流通图 2 库存：截至2025年5月28日，中国尿素企业总库存量98.06 万吨，环比+6.32 万吨，中国主要港口尿素库存统计 20.5 万吨，环比+0.2 万吨。 需求：农业方面，麦收开展之后玉米肥追肥有启动预期，当前启动迹象暂不明显，仅零星跟进为主。工业方面，复 合肥开工有减弱迹象，后续生产结束，对尿素消耗有下降预期，出口方面，后续厂检有开展表现，短期内对市场心 态有提振作用。 现货：本周日山东1810（09基差-37），河南1800（09基差-47） 策略观点：假期内氮肥协会发布对6月的各区域的尿素出厂指导价建议为5月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导 价基础上浮100元，协会规定在作出调整之前不得擅自突破最高价。受此影响山东尿素工厂收单转好，现货调涨。预 计尿素价格短期呈现震荡运行的格局。基本面来看，在国内基本面与政策共同抑制下，尿素上方空间较为有限 ...

2025 年 05 月 26 日 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 目 | | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,827 | 1,849 | -22 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,837 | 1,851 | -14 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 172,580 | 123,929 | 48651 | | （09合约） | | 持仓量 | （手） | 214,818 | 223,161 | -8343 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,548 | 7,573 | -25 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 633,927 | 458,716 | 175210 | | | 差 | | 山东地区基差 | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a significant decline in prices of commodities like crude oil and urea futures [1] - Urea spot market activity has improved as macroeconomic negative factors are gradually digested, with some companies starting to control order volumes and tentatively raise prices [1][5] - The urea market is currently in a state of fluctuation, influenced by the contradiction between demand recovery expectations and weak actual demand [1] Group 2: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea remains strong, with direct agricultural use and compound fertilizer demand accounting for 49% and 17% of total demand, respectively [2][3] - The peak demand season for urea aligns with the critical growth period for most crops, particularly in southern regions where rice planting occurs [2] - As drought conditions ease, agricultural demand is expected to gradually recover, with increased fertilizer preparation in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan [2][3] Group 3: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for urea, particularly for melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin, is closely tied to the real estate sector [3] - The recovery in real estate construction in 2025 is anticipated to stabilize the demand for urea-formaldehyde resin, thereby supporting urea demand [3] Group 4: Production and Capacity - Urea production in April reached 5.8375 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.91%, despite a month-on-month decline of 4.05% [4] - The national urea capacity utilization rate was 86.23% as of April 24, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.84% [4] - Urea inventory levels increased to 1.065 million tons by the end of April, marking a 22.72% month-on-month rise due to weakened downstream demand [4] Group 5: Price and Cost Dynamics - Urea prices have softened due to weak coal prices and limited downstream demand, significantly compressing profit margins for producers [6] - The average profit margin for urea produced via certain methods has turned negative, indicating severe challenges for production companies [6] Group 6: Export Outlook - Urea exports remain tightly controlled, with March exports at 0.23 million tons, a 63.62% month-on-month increase, but a 75.25% year-on-year decline [7] - The export situation is expected to remain stable in May, with potential changes in June depending on domestic demand and production capacity [7] Group 7: Future Market Trends - The second half of the year presents both challenges and opportunities, with potential price recovery expected as agricultural demand improves [9] - The market may face increased competition due to excess production capacity, particularly after the peak demand period [9] - Monitoring of export policy changes in June and July will be crucial for market dynamics and profitability [9]