Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation, with high daily production and inventory, and weak demand in both the industrial and agricultural sectors. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and overall high inventory. In the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. The export profit has declined but is still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to be volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2747 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 01 contract is 1737 (+11), the basis is 73 (-11), UR05 is 1783 (+12), and UR09 is 1721 (+6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 3573 (-250), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons, UR factory inventory is 1.019 million tons, and UR port inventory is 440,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the urea market is currently in a state of oscillation. Although international urea prices are strong and domestic macro - policies bring positive impacts to the raw material side, the domestic supply - demand imbalance with excessive supply remains obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will continue to oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating recently. Domestic macro - policies are beneficial to the raw material side. Supply remains high in terms of daily output and operating rate, and inventories are accumulating again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are declining, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.3%, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.431 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main UR contract has been oscillating recently. With strong international urea prices and positive macro - policies for raw materials, but obvious domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and policy - driven strength in the raw material side; bearish factors are high operating rates and daily outputs, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1820, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1820, unchanged; Henan spot price is 1820, unchanged; FOB China price is 2680 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 09 contract is 1742, down 2; the basis is 78, up 2; UR01 price is 1770, unchanged; UR05 price is 1802, up 5 [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 2900, unchanged; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.431 million tons, unchanged; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.136 million tons, unchanged; UR port inventory is 0.295 million tons, unchanged [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production has also generally shown an upward trend. - Net imports have fluctuated, and the import dependence has been between 8.4% and 19.3%. - Apparent consumption and actual consumption have also increased over the years, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9% [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing decline in urea prices in China, with producers preparing for June exports and anticipating a potential month-on-month decrease in guidance prices [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Urea prices in China continue to show a downward trend, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [1] - Producers are actively preparing for exports in June, suggesting a strategic focus on international markets despite domestic price pressures [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - There is an expectation that the guidance price for urea may decrease on a month-on-month basis, reflecting ongoing market challenges [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent urea futures market has rebounded and is now in a volatile state. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with the UR2509 contract basis indicating a slight positive trend, while the UR comprehensive inventory shows a negative sign. The main contract's 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it, with the main position being net long and increasing. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a short - term rebound, with high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented. The report predicts that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has rebounded and is volatile. Supply - side: The operating rate and daily production are at a high level, and new facilities have been put into operation recently, with a rapid short - term decline in inventory. Demand - side: In industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly declined, and compound fertilizer inventories have increased, while the operating rate of melamine has rapidly increased, and agricultural demand is gradually improving. The international urea price is strong, and export profits are high but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was announced on May 15 - 16, the urea price has stabilized after a sharp increase around May Day. The spot price of the delivery product is 1890 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 13, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 950,000 tons (-248,000), indicating a negative trend [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main UR position is net long and increasing, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to rebound in the short term. With high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented, the UR market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include the implementation of the export policy and the gradual improvement of agricultural demand; negative factors include high daily production and the commissioning of new facilities. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal changes in demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1890 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1877 | 0 | Warehouse Receipts | 7355 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 0 | Basis | 13 | 0 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 95 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1910 | 0 | UR01 | 1788 | 0 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 81.7 | 0 | | FOB China | 2562 | - | UR05 | 1849 | 0 | UR Port Inventory | 13.3 | 0 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1877 | 0 | - | - | - | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with high开工 rates, new capacity coming online, high daily production, and rapid inventory accumulation. Industrial demand, especially for compound fertilizers, is weakening, and agricultural demand is also in a downturn. Although there are some bullish factors such as the basis, the short - term trend of the urea main contract is expected to be volatile [4]. - The main bullish factor is the expectation of export policy, while the main bearish factors include high daily production, inventory accumulation, and weakening demand. The main logic is the high supply and marginal changes in demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Before the holiday, the urea futures market rebounded significantly due to news. Supply side has high开工 rates and new capacity, with expected high daily production. Inventory decreased from a high level and then rapidly accumulated again. Industrial demand, especially for compound fertilizers, weakened, and agricultural demand also declined. The export policy has no definite news of liberalization. The spot price of the delivery product is 1900 (unchanged), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 14, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net long positions of the UR main contract increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term rebound of the urea main contract, high daily production, inventory accumulation again, declining compound fertilizer开工, and weakening agricultural demand are expected to result in a volatile trend for UR today [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1900, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1900, unchanged; Henan spot price is 1900, unchanged; FOB China price is 1882 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract is 1886 (+5); UR01 price is 1781 (-14); UR05 price is 1912 (-4) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry's capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with different growth rates in each year. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, but the UR2509 contract basis, the position of the close price relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main contract are bullish factors. The short - term trend of the urea main contract is expected to be volatile due to high daily production, restocking of inventory, declining compound fertilizer production, and weak agricultural demand [4]. - The bullish factor is the expectation of export policy, while the bearish factors include high daily production, restocking of inventory, and weakening demand. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal change in demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Before the holiday, the urea futures market rebounded significantly due to news. The supply side has a high operating rate and new production capacity coming online, with expected high daily production. Inventory decreased from a high level and then quickly restocked. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand dropped significantly, compound fertilizer inventory increased, some compound fertilizer enterprises resold urea raw materials, the operating rate of melamine was neutral, and agricultural demand weakened. There is still no definite news on the liberalization of urea export policies. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1900 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 19, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is long, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term trend of the urea main contract is a rebound. With high daily production, restocking of inventory, declining compound fertilizer production, and weakening agricultural demand, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the deliverable product is 1900 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1900 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1900 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 1882 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR09 contract is 1881 (+24), the UR01 contract is 1795 (+17), and the UR05 contract is 1916 (+47). The basis of the UR2509 contract is 19 (-14) [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.192 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 118,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, the production was 3425, the net import was 360, and the apparent consumption was 3785 [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：节前尿素盘面受消息面影响大幅反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投 产，日产预计将维持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显 回落，复合肥库存累库，有复合肥企业转售尿素原料，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入弱势。 尿素出口政策目前仍未有确切放开消息。交割品现货1850（+50），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差-7，升贴水比例-0.4%，中性； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.2万吨（+0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • ...