Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand is weak in the short term, and the industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply - side pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are rising, inventory is falling. Agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand is moderately weak. New production capacities increase supply - side pressure. Export improvement boosts market sentiment. Overall, the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.3%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons), a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, considering the weak industrial and agricultural demand and the improved export situation [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The positive factor is the improvement in exports; the negative factors are domestic oversupply and new production capacity commissioning. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | |----|----| | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1600 (unchanged); Shandong spot is 1600 (unchanged); Henan spot is 1610 (unchanged); FOB China is 2732 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 01 contract is 1652 (- 6); the basis is - 52 (+ 6); UR05 is 1727 (- 4); UR09 is 1748 (- 6) [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 7183 (+ 225); UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.484 million tons (- 94,000 tons); UR port inventory is 82,000 tons (+ 3,000 tons) [6]. | 3. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The ex - factory prices of urea in mainstream areas are falling, and the trading volume is weak. The supply has recovered, and the ex - factory prices are expected to continue the downward trend [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. The autumn fertilizer season in North China has ended, and the downstream grass - roots orders are scarce. The domestic demand is still limited in the short term, and the spot market sentiment remains sluggish [5]. - The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international market will have a greater impact on the domestic market, but the domestic autumn fertilizer is fully over, and the overall domestic demand is about to enter a "vacuum period" [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Strategy - For unilateral trading, go short at high levels; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, stay on the sidelines [5]. 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.53%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% [6]. - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 87.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81% [6]. Demand - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points [6]. - As of November 14, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,300 tons, an increase of 280 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 27.45% [6]. - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 106,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - As of November 12, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period [6]. Inventory - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week [6]. - The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 82,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8% [6]. Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal has declined slightly. The fixed - bed production of urea has a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production has a loss of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 168 yuan/ton. The futures are fluctuating, the basis is - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 67 yuan/ton [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cost support and the recovery of agricultural demand drive a short - term rebound, but high inventory and supply surplus suppress the upside space. The fundamentals of urea maintain a pattern of oscillatingly strong but with limited height [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - Raw material thermal coal prices continue to rise, raising the urea cost line. Some gas - based enterprises are under maintenance due to losses, increasing the expectation of supply - side contraction [4] - The improvement in weather promotes wheat sowing, increasing the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing. The compound fertilizer operating rate increases by 3.53% month - on - month, with short - term demand improvement [4] - Enterprise inventory reaches 1.6154 million tons, a record high. Rainfall in the north slows down shipments, and the pressure of inventory accumulation remains unsolved [4] - Daily production remains at a high level of 196,200 tons. Previously maintained devices are gradually resuming production, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different contract months, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and gross profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, thermal coal spot prices, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][40][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the spot price at 1740 (+10). The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%. The overall inventory is at a high level, with the UR comprehensive inventory at 152.5 million tons (+10.4). The main contract's 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net long but reducing long positions. International urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. - The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high production rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer industry's operating rate is at a medium level, the melamine industry's operating rate has significantly declined, and agricultural demand is weak. China's overall urea supply exceeds demand, and although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 152.5 million tons (+10.4), indicating a bearish situation [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of UR is net long, but the long positions are being reduced, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to be volatile. With strong international urea prices and no more liberal export policies than expected, and a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance, the UR contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown an overall upward trend. The import dependence on PP has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state where the overall supply in China exceeds demand significantly. The futures price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, while international urea prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be volatile [4]. - The positive factor is the strong international price, while the negative factors are the high production and daily output and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand significantly, and the theoretical export profit has continued to reach new highs, but the export volume has decreased due to policies and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (-10), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 59, with a premium or discount ratio of 3.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1720 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1730 (0), and the FOB China price is 3273 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1661 (-9), the basis is 59 (-1), the price of the UR05 contract is 1722 (-3), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1744 (-1) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7810 (-378), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.371 million tons, the UR manufacturer's inventory is 888,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 483,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in capacity, production, and apparent consumption. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied. For example, in 2019, the capacity was 24.455 million tons with a growth rate of 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation, with high daily production and inventory, and weak demand in both the industrial and agricultural sectors. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and overall high inventory. In the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. The export profit has declined but is still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to be volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2747 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 01 contract is 1737 (+11), the basis is 73 (-11), UR05 is 1783 (+12), and UR09 is 1721 (+6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 3573 (-250), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.459 million tons, UR factory inventory is 1.019 million tons, and UR port inventory is 440,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the urea market is currently in a state of oscillation. Although international urea prices are strong and domestic macro - policies bring positive impacts to the raw material side, the domestic supply - demand imbalance with excessive supply remains obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will continue to oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating recently. Domestic macro - policies are beneficial to the raw material side. Supply remains high in terms of daily output and operating rate, and inventories are accumulating again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are declining, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.3%, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.431 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main UR contract has been oscillating recently. With strong international urea prices and positive macro - policies for raw materials, but obvious domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and policy - driven strength in the raw material side; bearish factors are high operating rates and daily outputs, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1820, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1820, unchanged; Henan spot price is 1820, unchanged; FOB China price is 2680 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 09 contract is 1742, down 2; the basis is 78, up 2; UR01 price is 1770, unchanged; UR05 price is 1802, up 5 [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 2900, unchanged; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.431 million tons, unchanged; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.136 million tons, unchanged; UR port inventory is 0.295 million tons, unchanged [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production has also generally shown an upward trend. - Net imports have fluctuated, and the import dependence has been between 8.4% and 19.3%. - Apparent consumption and actual consumption have also increased over the years, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9% [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing decline in urea prices in China, with producers preparing for June exports and anticipating a potential month-on-month decrease in guidance prices [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Urea prices in China continue to show a downward trend, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [1] - Producers are actively preparing for exports in June, suggesting a strategic focus on international markets despite domestic price pressures [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - There is an expectation that the guidance price for urea may decrease on a month-on-month basis, reflecting ongoing market challenges [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent urea futures market has rebounded and is now in a volatile state. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with the UR2509 contract basis indicating a slight positive trend, while the UR comprehensive inventory shows a negative sign. The main contract's 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it, with the main position being net long and increasing. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a short - term rebound, with high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented. The report predicts that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has rebounded and is volatile. Supply - side: The operating rate and daily production are at a high level, and new facilities have been put into operation recently, with a rapid short - term decline in inventory. Demand - side: In industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly declined, and compound fertilizer inventories have increased, while the operating rate of melamine has rapidly increased, and agricultural demand is gradually improving. The international urea price is strong, and export profits are high but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was announced on May 15 - 16, the urea price has stabilized after a sharp increase around May Day. The spot price of the delivery product is 1890 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 13, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 950,000 tons (-248,000), indicating a negative trend [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main UR position is net long and increasing, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to rebound in the short term. With high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented, the UR market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include the implementation of the export policy and the gradual improvement of agricultural demand; negative factors include high daily production and the commissioning of new facilities. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal changes in demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1890 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1877 | 0 | Warehouse Receipts | 7355 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 0 | Basis | 13 | 0 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 95 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1910 | 0 | UR01 | 1788 | 0 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 81.7 | 0 | | FOB China | 2562 | - | UR05 | 1849 | 0 | UR Port Inventory | 13.3 | 0 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1877 | 0 | - | - | - | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]