Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the domestic refined oil prices are likely to remain unchanged after the upcoming adjustment period, marking the third time this year that prices will be stable due to narrow fluctuations in international crude oil prices [1] Group 1 - The current adjustment cycle shows that the refined oil price adjustment range will remain within 50 yuan per ton, which is below the 50 yuan per ton adjustment threshold [1] - As a result, the retail price of gasoline and diesel in most regions of the country is expected to stay at previous levels, with diesel prices ranging from 7 yuan to 7.2 yuan per liter and 92-octane gasoline prices between 7.4 yuan and 7.5 yuan per liter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in fuel prices, with 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel decreasing by 0.1 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.1 yuan per liter respectively, effective from July 15, 2025 [1] Price Adjustments - The new prices for gasoline and diesel in Hubei will be 7.27 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 7.78 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 6.9 yuan for 0 diesel after the adjustment [1] - This marks the 14th price adjustment in 2025, with a total of six increases and six decreases so far [4] Market Analysis - Domestic institutions predict that the next round of fuel price adjustments is likely to remain unchanged due to ongoing U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries and the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the U.S. [5] - OPEC+ is expected to increase production from July to September, which may influence market dynamics [5] Regulatory Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for major oil companies to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [5][6] - Local authorities are urged to enhance market supervision and strictly enforce price policies to maintain normal market order [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects a balance of market dynamics, with a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices aimed at reducing costs for consumers and logistics companies, while international oil market conditions remain volatile and influenced by geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively, marking the 14th round of price adjustments this year, with a pattern of "six increases, six decreases, and two stasis" [1]. - The overall price changes for gasoline and diesel since the end of 2024 are a decrease of 225 yuan/ton and 215 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.1 yuan and 0.11 yuan respectively, leading to average prices of 7.4-7.5 yuan for 92 gasoline and 7-7.2 yuan for diesel in most regions [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Logistics - The price reduction will lower fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated saving of about 5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank and a reduction of 0.7 yuan per 100 kilometers for typical city driving [2]. - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost will decrease by approximately 4.4 yuan per 100 kilometers [2]. Group 3: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has shown volatility, with a slight upward trend in prices due to increased demand during the U.S. Independence Day holiday and geopolitical tensions affecting energy transport safety [2][3]. - OPEC+ has maintained a firm stance on increasing production, with plans to raise daily oil output by 548,000 barrels in August, while also revising down global oil demand forecasts for 2023 and 2026 [3]. - The next price adjustment window is set for July 29, with expectations of a slight increase in fuel prices based on current international oil price levels, although the likelihood of a price stasis remains high due to ongoing market dynamics [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China will increase gasoline and diesel prices effective from July 1, with gasoline up by 235 yuan per ton and diesel by 225 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.19 yuan for 95-octane gasoline [1][2] - The recent pricing cycle saw international oil prices initially rise due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, followed by a significant drop after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, resulting in an overall increase in average oil prices during the cycle [1][2] - The price adjustment will lead to an additional cost of approximately 9 yuan for filling a 50L tank, with an increase of about 1.3 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven for vehicles consuming 7-8L per 100 kilometers [1] Group 2 - This adjustment marks the 13th price change in 2025 and the sixth increase, with the overall trend for 2025 showing "six increases, five decreases, and two stasis" [2] - Analysts predict that the next price adjustment window on July 15, 2025, will likely see a significant decrease in fuel prices due to the recent drop in international oil prices and the easing geopolitical tensions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in fuel prices, with 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel rising by 0.21 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.22 yuan per liter respectively, effective from June 17, 2025 [1] Price Adjustments - The price adjustments will result in the maximum retail prices for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel being set at 7.18 yuan, 7.69 yuan, and 6.81 yuan per liter respectively [1] - For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up with 92 gasoline will cost approximately 10 yuan more after the price increase [2] Market Dynamics - This adjustment marks the 12th price change in 2025 and the 5th increase this year, reflecting a pattern of "five increases, five decreases, and two stasis" in fuel pricing [4] - The next price adjustment window is anticipated to open on July 1, 2025 [4] External Influences - Domestic analysts indicate that the recent Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant rise in international oil prices, which may influence the next pricing cycle, especially in the context of geopolitical instability and improving demand [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has instructed major oil companies to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [5][6]

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new round of adjustment window [1] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [1] - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30 [1] Group 2 - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report at 16:00 [1] - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published at 17:00 [1] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will also be released at 17:00 [1] Group 3 - The U.S. will report May retail sales month-on-month and May import price index month-on-month at 20:30 [1] - U.S. industrial production month-on-month for May will be reported at 21:15 [1] - The NAHB housing market index for June and April business inventories month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 4 - The Bank of Canada will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting the next day [1] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 13 will be reported at 04:30 the next day [1]

5月19日，国家发改委发布消息称，自24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格分别下调230元/吨和220元/吨。折合升价，92 号汽油下调0.18元，95号汽油和0号柴油均下调0.19元。 此次调价后，私家车和物流企业用油成本有所下降。 按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92号汽油将节省9元；对于月跑1万公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车 为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将减少361元左右。 本轮是2025年第十次调价，也是今年的第五次下调。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"三涨五跌两搁浅"的格 局。 卓创资讯表示，本次下调落实后，国内多地92号汽油将有望自2021年底之后重新进入"6元时代"，0号柴油亦有望进入 2021年以来的低位水平，部分省份进入"6.5元"以内。 智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第五次下调。 图片来源：隆众资讯 截至5月19日北京时间上午7时，WTI即月原油期货开盘涨0.07%，报62美元/桶；布伦特即月原油期货开盘涨0.01%，报 65.36美元/桶。 下一轮成品油的价格预期尚不明朗，各家机构存在分歧。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦表示，展望后市，虽然市场 ...

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data for April on May 19, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods [2] - CICC estimates that the fiscal subsidy scale for the old-for-new policy exceeded 38 billion yuan in April, maintaining a strong impact on retail sales growth at 3.3 percentage points [2] - The retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to grow by 14.4% year-on-year in April, with overall retail sales growth projected at around 5.5% [2] Fuel Price Adjustment - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is set for May 19 at 24:00, with a projected decrease of 240 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices [3] - Analysts predict a drop of approximately 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.2 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel, resulting in savings of about 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [3] LPR Announcement - The latest 1-year and 5-year LPR will be announced on May 20, with the previous rates at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively [4] - Following a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate, the LPR is expected to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [4] Stock Unlocking - A total of 40 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from May 19 to May 23, with 8 stocks having a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan [6] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are: SiTeWei-W (7.007 billion yuan), XinDian Software (4.865 billion yuan), and YanTian Port (4.459 billion yuan) [6][7] New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks will be issued next week: Guqi Wool Materials on May 19 and Zhongce Rubber on May 23 [10]

作 者丨费心懿 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势震荡下行。具体来 看，期初欧佩克部分产油国将实施补偿性减产的消息对油价起到支撑，但近期欧佩克成员国 之间因遵守生产配额问题而关系紧张，几个成员国将提议在6月增加原油产量，以及哈萨克斯 坦一季度原油出口同比激增7%，供应预期增加令油价再度承压。此外，美国所谓"对等关 税"政策的不确定性令全球经济增长与燃料需求前景蒙阴，叠加美国原油库存连续第五周攀 升，利空因素居于主导，令原油价格走势承压。受原油走势影响，变化率正向区间接连收 窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政策依然带 有不确定性，沙特增产等多因素叠加，国际油价或承压运行，短期原油仍延续弱势震荡走 势。新周期伊始，国内测算的原油变化率将以负值开局。由于下一轮调价周期横跨"五一"小 长假，调价周期较长，国际原油市场的波动性较大，后市油价走势仍有不确定性。 据悉，下轮成品油调价窗口为5月1 9日2 4时。 4月3 0日2 4时，国内汽柴油零售限价调整将达成年内第二次搁浅。 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation is overall easing, and global oil demand is declining, while OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, leading to a higher probability of a price reduction in the next round of refined oil price adjustments [1][4] - Domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "three increases, four decreases, and two stasis," resulting in a year-to-date decrease of 425 yuan/ton for gasoline and 410 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [2] - The recent price adjustment coincides with the "May Day" holiday, allowing private car owners to travel at lower fuel costs [2] Group 2 - During the current pricing cycle, the international oil price change rate has been narrowing, with the average price of reference crude oil at 64.82 yuan/barrel and a change rate of 0.65% as of April 30 [4] - Despite some upward pressure on international oil prices due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies are overshadowing global economic growth and fuel demand prospects [4] - The next price adjustment window will open on May 19, with expectations of a price reduction due to the overall easing of geopolitical tensions and OPEC+'s stance on increasing production [4]