作 者丨费心懿 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势震荡下行。具体来 看，期初欧佩克部分产油国将实施补偿性减产的消息对油价起到支撑，但近期欧佩克成员国 之间因遵守生产配额问题而关系紧张，几个成员国将提议在6月增加原油产量，以及哈萨克斯 坦一季度原油出口同比激增7%，供应预期增加令油价再度承压。此外，美国所谓"对等关 税"政策的不确定性令全球经济增长与燃料需求前景蒙阴，叠加美国原油库存连续第五周攀 升，利空因素居于主导，令原油价格走势承压。受原油走势影响，变化率正向区间接连收 窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政策依然带 有不确定性，沙特增产等多因素叠加，国际油价或承压运行，短期原油仍延续弱势震荡走 势。新周期伊始，国内测算的原油变化率将以负值开局。由于下一轮调价周期横跨"五一"小 长假，调价周期较长，国际原油市场的波动性较大，后市油价走势仍有不确定性。 据悉，下轮成品油调价窗口为5月1 9日2 4时。 4月3 0日2 4时，国内汽柴油零售限价调整将达成年内第二次搁浅。 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation is overall easing, and global oil demand is declining, while OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, leading to a higher probability of a price reduction in the next round of refined oil price adjustments [1][4] - Domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "three increases, four decreases, and two stasis," resulting in a year-to-date decrease of 425 yuan/ton for gasoline and 410 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [2] - The recent price adjustment coincides with the "May Day" holiday, allowing private car owners to travel at lower fuel costs [2] Group 2 - During the current pricing cycle, the international oil price change rate has been narrowing, with the average price of reference crude oil at 64.82 yuan/barrel and a change rate of 0.65% as of April 30 [4] - Despite some upward pressure on international oil prices due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies are overshadowing global economic growth and fuel demand prospects [4] - The next price adjustment window will open on May 19, with expectations of a price reduction due to the overall easing of geopolitical tensions and OPEC+'s stance on increasing production [4]

Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released on April 30, with March's PMI recorded at 50.5%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - The composite PMI output index for March was 51.4%, indicating increased business activity, with manufacturing production index at 52.6% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.8% [2] Oil Price Adjustment - A new round of refined oil price adjustments will take place at 24:00 on April 30, with a projected increase of 60 yuan per ton based on a reference crude oil price of $65.34 per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 1.46% as of April 25 [3] U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. will release its first-quarter GDP data on April 30, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year's strong performance [4] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be published on May 2, following a March increase of 228,000 in seasonally adjusted non-farm employment, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2% [5] Stock Market Developments - Over 4.07 billion yuan worth of locked-up shares will be released next week, with 24.76 billion shares set to be listed, including significant unlocks from companies like China Resources Materials and Chengda Biology, each exceeding 5 billion yuan [6] New Stock Opportunities - Two new stocks will be issued from April 28 to April 30, with Zairun New Energy on the ChiNext and Tiangong Co. on the Beijing Stock Exchange, collectively raising approximately 1.194 billion yuan [11]