从"有房才有家"到租赁新纪元：洞察未来居住趋势 长久以来，"有房才有家"的观念在中国根深蒂固。在过去二十余载波澜壮阔的房价上涨浪潮中，房产早已超越了纯粹的居住功能，成为无数家庭实现财富 梦想的载体。然而，时代的车轮从未停歇，当昔日的购房狂热逐渐退潮，一个全新的租赁时代正以不可阻挡之势悄然来临。预计到2030年，中国将全面迈 入租赁时代，届时，房地产市场或许将面临"房产难卖"的挑战。您，为此做好了准备吗？ 昔日购房热潮的落幕与市场拐点 回首过去二十年，一股无形的力量几乎席卷了全国，将人们卷入了一场史无前例的购房热潮。街头巷尾、茶余饭后，人们谈论的焦点无不围绕着购房。数 据显示，在那段时期，全国近八成居民实现了城镇购房，更有接近42%的城镇家庭拥有两套及以上房产。然而，就在人们坚信房价将持续攀升之际，市场 走势却如同一场惊心动魄的过山车。2015年至2019年，房价火箭般蹿升，令许多人望尘莫及；但2020年，一切戛然而止，2021年起房价更是出现了令人咋 舌的下滑，让那些追高入市的购房者悔不当初，甚至有人自嘲"买房一时爽，还款火葬场"。 2025房价风向标：五大趋势不可忽视 展望未来，2025年将是房价走势的风水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China is undergoing significant adjustments, with varying conditions across different cities, leading to a complex decision-making process for potential homebuyers [1][2][12] Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 10.2%. Compared to the peak in 2018, the transaction volume has shrunk by nearly 40%, indicating a deep adjustment period in the real estate market [1][4] - The inventory of commercial housing reached approximately 680 million square meters by the end of March 2025, with a depletion cycle of nearly 22 months, significantly exceeding the reasonable level of 12-18 months [4][5] Price Trends - The housing price differentiation across cities is notable, with three tiers identified: - First-tier cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai) have stabilized prices with slight increases in core areas, such as a 1.2% rise in Shanghai's core area in Q1 2025 [4] - Second-tier cities (e.g., Hangzhou, Nanjing) show a trend of stability with some declines, particularly in suburban areas [4] - Third-tier cities are experiencing continuous price declines, with some areas seeing drops exceeding 30% [4][5] Demographic Changes - China's population is undergoing significant changes, with a reported decline of approximately 950,000 in 2024. By 2035, over 20% of the population is expected to be over 65 years old, indicating a shift towards a deeply aging society [7] - The decrease in total population suggests a narrowing of housing demand, while the trend of population concentration in major cities continues, leading to market differentiation [7] Financial Environment - Since the second half of 2024, mortgage rates have been decreasing, with the average rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to around 3.8%, a historical low [7] - Various regions have relaxed purchasing restrictions, including lowering down payment ratios and easing purchase limits, which have somewhat boosted market confidence [7] Housing Affordability - The average housing price-to-income ratio across 50 major cities is now 8.6, down from 11.3 in 2018, indicating improved affordability. The ratios for first-tier cities stand at 12.5, while second-tier cities are at 8.2, and third-tier cities at 6.7 [7] Buyer Strategies - For first-time homebuyers with stable income, now may be a favorable time to enter the market, especially in first and second-tier cities where promotional efforts by developers are strong [9] - Existing homeowners looking to upgrade should consider a "sell first, buy later" strategy to maximize negotiation power in the current market [9] - Investors should be cautious, focusing on prime locations in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, as short-term appreciation is less likely [9][10] - Those unable to afford ideal housing or uncertain about their future location may choose to wait, but should be aware that prime resources in major cities may become scarcer [10] Key Considerations - Personal financial health is crucial, with a recommendation that monthly mortgage payments should not exceed 40% of household income [10] - Location selection is vital, as properties in quality areas tend to retain value better even during market downturns [10] - The quality of the property itself is increasingly important, with well-constructed and well-located properties showing resilience in value [10] - Awareness of urban development plans can significantly influence long-term property value, as infrastructure improvements can enhance desirability [11]

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a notable decline in housing prices in various regions, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities [3][4] - Young individuals face immense pressure regarding home purchases, with a high percentage expressing concerns about affordability and the fear of missing out on buying opportunities [1][3] - The market is characterized by a clear differentiation between high-quality properties in core urban areas and those in less desirable locations, with the former likely to maintain value while the latter may see price declines [4][5] Market Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new residential prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% for new homes and 0.5% for second-hand homes in the first half of 2025, indicating a market adjustment rather than continuous growth [3] - A demographic shift is evident, with a declining birth rate leading to a population decrease, which is expected to impact housing demand negatively [3] - Predictions suggest that the real estate market will enter a phase of "overall surplus but structural shortage" within the next five years, indicating an oversupply of housing but a continued demand for high-quality properties [3] Investment Considerations - The rental market is becoming increasingly attractive, with a significant portion of young people opting to rent rather than buy, as rental yields are often lower than mortgage rates [7][10] - Financial experts recommend that housing costs should not exceed 30% of a household's monthly income to avoid excessive financial strain [7] - The importance of considering long-term career and personal plans when making housing decisions is emphasized, as buying a home is a long-term commitment [7][8] Psychological Factors - The "fear of missing out" on home purchases can lead to poor financial decisions, as seen in cases where individuals bought homes at high prices only to face subsequent declines [1][8] - The narrative that "housing prices will only rise" contributes to anxiety among potential buyers, highlighting the need for independent analysis rather than following market trends blindly [8][10] - The notion that homeownership is the only path to stability is challenged, with suggestions that investing in personal development may yield better long-term returns than real estate [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with property values declining and the previous perception of real estate as a guaranteed investment fading away [1][3][4]. Market Trends - Over the past two years, property prices have consistently dropped, leading to concerns about whether prices have reached their lowest point [1][3]. - The once booming real estate market, which was seen as a wealth generator, is now viewed as a burden for many families due to significant asset depreciation [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a stark contrast in supply and demand, with over 110 million vacant homes in China and urban households averaging 1.5 homes each, indicating an oversupply situation [10][12]. - The previous anxiety of being pushed out of cities due to lack of housing is diminishing, as the population growth is slowing, with only 500,000 net new residents in 2021 [12][23]. Developer Challenges - Developers are facing a challenging environment with high debt levels and tight cash flow, forcing them to sell properties at discounted prices, which could lead to industry collapse if prices drop too significantly [14][23]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from quantity to quality, as developers must focus on delivering high-quality properties to attract buyers [14][16]. Changing Consumer Attitudes - Younger generations are increasingly rejecting the traditional view of homeownership as a necessity, preferring flexibility and personal growth over long-term financial commitments [19][25]. - The perception of real estate as a status symbol is eroding, with many now questioning the value of investing in property given the current market conditions [21][25]. Future Outlook - Industry leaders predict that the real estate market cannot sustain its previous growth patterns indefinitely, with calls for a return to the fundamental purpose of housing as a living space rather than an investment vehicle [23][25]. - The introduction of property taxes by 2030 is anticipated to further alter the cost dynamics for multiple property owners, impacting market behavior [8][12].

Core Insights - The overall trend in residential property prices across major cities in China shows a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline in August 2025, despite some fluctuations in specific cities [1][3]. Group 1: Month-on-Month Price Changes - In August, the new residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Shanghai saw an increase of 0.4%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively [2]. - Second-tier cities saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% in new residential property prices, with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points. Third-tier cities experienced a 0.4% decrease, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The second-hand residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.0% month-on-month, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 1.2%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2]. Group 2: Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year, new residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% in August, with a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Shanghai experienced a significant increase of 5.9%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 3.5%, 4.3%, and 1.7% respectively [3]. - Second-tier cities recorded a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% in new residential property prices, with a narrowing decline of 0.4 percentage points. Third-tier cities experienced a 3.7% decrease, with a narrowing decline of 0.5 percentage points [3]. - The year-on-year decline in second-hand residential property prices in first-tier cities was 3.5%, with an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 3.1%, 2.6%, 6.2%, and 1.9% respectively [3].

Group 1 - In August 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Shanghai saw an increase of 0.4%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - The sales prices of new residential properties in second-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, remaining unchanged from the previous month [1] - In August, the year-on-year decline for second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities was 3.5%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The year-on-year decline for second-hand residential properties in second and third-tier cities was 5.2% and 6.0% respectively, with both declines narrowing by 0.4 percentage points [2]

Core Insights - The average new home price in 65 major cities has increased by 1.51% month-on-month, reaching 7,807 yuan/m² [3][7] - The housing search activity in August 2025 has shown a slight increase of 0.16% compared to the previous month, with first-tier cities seeing a 1.05% rise [5][7] New Home Prices - The average new home prices in major cities are as follows: - Beijing: 56,248 yuan/m² - Shanghai: 27,354 yuan/m² - Guangzhou: 36,480 yuan/m² - Shenzhen: 26,183 yuan/m² - Chengdu: 16,236 yuan/m² - Hangzhou: 27,083 yuan/m² - Chongqing: 11,835 yuan/m² - Xi'an: 18,028 yuan/m² - Suzhou: 55,619 yuan/m² [3][4][23] Housing Search Activity - The housing search activity in first-tier cities increased by 1.05%, with Beijing leading at a 2.61% increase [7][8] - Second-tier cities saw a 0.11% increase, while third-tier cities experienced a 0.20% rise in housing search activity [7][8] Buyer Confidence Index - The buyer confidence index for August 2025 is reported at 86.8, with 27.0% of buyers planning to purchase a home within the next year [16][32] - A significant portion of buyers (58.0%) are looking to purchase their first home, while 24.0% are considering upgrading to a second home [16][32] Price Expectations - Over 56% of buyers anticipate a decline in home prices in September, with 32.0% expecting a decrease of more than 10% [16][15] - The expectations for September's home price trends indicate that 37.0% of real estate agents believe prices will remain stable [32][30] Second-Hand Housing Market - The average listing price for second-hand homes across 65 cities has decreased by 1.66% month-on-month, with an average of 13,185 yuan/m² [19][24] - Major cities' second-hand home prices include: - Beijing: 42,410 yuan/m² - Shanghai: 45,159 yuan/m² - Guangzhou: 32,488 yuan/m² - Shenzhen: 55,407 yuan/m² [21][23] New Listings - The number of new listings in the housing market has decreased by 1.33% month-on-month, with significant declines in major cities such as Beijing (-0.35%) and Shenzhen (-2.60%) [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in China, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, highlighting a significant decline in property prices and questioning the sustainability of previous growth trends [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Property prices in major cities have not only stagnated but have also seen declines, with some areas experiencing drops of over 20% [1]. - In certain provincial capitals, the highest price drops have reached 50%, indicating a severe market correction [1]. - The article notes that the real estate market is facing a lack of buyers, as evidenced by the absence of offers on listed properties [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Decline - The peak of residential leverage occurred in 2021, and since then, there has been no growth in household leverage, leading to a stagnation in property prices [3]. - The "three red lines" policy has restricted corporate leverage, resulting in ongoing bankruptcies among small to medium-sized real estate companies [4]. - An oversupply of new homes is pressuring developers to sell quickly, but potential buyers are hesitant to take on more debt [4]. - Demographic challenges, such as an aging population and a decrease in new births, are contributing to a reduced demand for housing [5][6]. - Government initiatives to build affordable housing are expected to further decrease the demand for commercial properties [7]. Group 3: Long-term Perspectives - Some analysts believe that the current price levels in first and second-tier cities are attractive and that a recovery is possible, drawing parallels with past market recoveries in places like Hong Kong [9][10]. - There is a sentiment that inflation could serve as a catalyst for future price increases in the real estate market [10]. - However, skepticism remains regarding the long-term viability of property investments, with concerns about the generational wealth depletion and the aging housing stock [11][12].

New Housing Market - In July, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,877 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.64% [2] - First-tier cities showed strong performance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.36%, particularly in high-end projects exceeding 100,000 yuan per square meter [2] - Second-tier cities also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.23%, with strong sales in quality improvement projects in cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu [2] - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.19%, with cities like Lianyungang and Jining seeing declines over 0.5% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Overall, the real estate market saw a seasonal decline in supply and demand in July, with new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities at 8.36 million square meters [3] - The central government proposed a new model for real estate development, focusing on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with local governments implementing policies to stimulate the market [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - In July, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,585 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.32% [4] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month price decline of 0.61%, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 0.84% and 0.77%, respectively [4] - The transaction volume of second-hand housing in 14 key cities decreased by 1.83% month-on-month and 9.05% year-on-year, despite a cumulative increase of 10.8% in the first seven months of the year [4][5] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The second-hand housing market may face pressure of declining volume and prices if no significant positive factors emerge in the second half of the year [5] - The report from DTZ indicates that the year-on-year growth rate of new residential property prices has turned negative, with a decline in real estate development investment by 11.2% and residential development investment by 10.4% in the first half of the year [5] - There is a noticeable shift in buyer sentiment, with first-time buyers hoping for lower prices and improvement buyers focusing on quality, environment, and amenities [5]

Core Insights - A neighbor recently sold their property at a 20% discount below market price, causing a stir among other homeowners in the community [1][3] - Opinions are divided; some view the sale as a wise move to avoid future losses, while others see it as hasty and potentially damaging to overall property values in the area [3][4] - The real estate market is showing signs of differentiation, with desirable properties still in demand while less attractive ones struggle to sell [4] Market Analysis - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of this year, 45 cities saw year-on-year increases in new home prices, while only 25 experienced declines, indicating a varied performance across different regions [3] - The current market is characterized by a clear divide: good properties are selling well, while poor ones are not attracting buyers, reflecting a maturation of the market [4] Selling Considerations - Several scenarios warrant selling a property: 1. Upgrading living conditions due to space constraints or poor living conditions [5] 2. Diversifying assets when real estate constitutes a high percentage of total assets [5] 3. Addressing urgent financial needs, such as starting a business or medical emergencies [5] 4. High holding costs for older properties that diminish living quality [6] Cautionary Factors - Certain situations require careful consideration before selling: 1. Selling impulsively due to market rumors without independent analysis [8] 2. Lack of a clear plan for the proceeds from the sale [8] 3. Emotional decision-making based on temporary market fluctuations [8] 4. Selling the only residence, which could lead to housing instability [8] Future Outlook - The real estate market may continue to adjust in the short term, but the long-term value retention of quality properties remains strong [9] - Demand for high-quality housing is expected to persist, particularly in well-located and well-equipped properties, indicating potential value growth [9][10] - The "golden era" of real estate may be over, but a "silver era" is just beginning, suggesting ongoing opportunities in the market [9][10]