回想2018年那份轰动一时的预言，马云那句"未来的房子可能会像葱一样便宜"仿佛还在耳边回响。那时的城市，房价如同雨后春笋般节节攀升，开发商的 推土机昼夜不停，炒房者像是追逐热浪的浪潮，连夜排队抢购的现象比比皆是。几乎没有人愿意相信，那个站在聚光灯下的预言会有成真的一天。大家不 过是笑一笑，想着这不过是又一个商业巨头的夸张比喻而已。 时光流转，而今再看，市场的浪潮早已默默改变了方向。全国平均房价下跌超过30%，曾经那些飙升的城市也开始出现回落。在鹤岗、铁岭、双鸭山这样 的小城里，几万元、十几万元就能买到一套房子的消息，早已不再是新闻。现实似乎在悄悄印证着马云的那句话，只是许多人当初未曾细想，房价是否能 真的廉价如葱，或许本就不是字面意思那样简单。 图片 坦白说，马云所说的"房价如葱"，更多地是一种意象，意在描绘未来住房价格逐步回归理性，与居民的实际收入挂钩的趋势。他并非预见到房子会变得像 日常蔬菜一样唾手可得，而是希望指出，当市场泡沫散去，普通人不必再为了一套房耗尽一生心血。到了那一天，只要努力工作，攒下一份积蓄，买房便 不再是遥不可及的梦想。这种想法，听起来温暖而充满希望，触动了许多人心底对安稳生活的向往。 ...

另一边，一位朋友选择租房，月薪两万，租个三千的房子，剩下的钱该吃吃该玩玩。 上个月还去了趟澳洲，朋友圈晒着旅游照片，看着是潇洒，但房东一句话就能让他下个月搬家。 三十多岁的人，说句难听的，连面墙都不是自己的。 这个问题真没那么简单，现在的年轻人，哪个没有房贷、车贷、消费贷，负债成了标配，区别只是欠多欠少而已。 那五年后，背着房贷的有房族和看似轻松的无房族，到底谁会过得舒坦点？ 先说个真事，我朋友在互联网公司，前年咬牙买了房，月供一万二，昨天见他，头发稀疏了不少。 "以前觉得买房是资产，现在感觉是签了三十年卖身契。" 他苦笑。 公司最近裁员风声紧，他每天加班到凌晨，就怕失业断供，房子是有了，但活得像个惊弓之鸟。 但事情正在起变化，现在买房的人，很多是房价高点入场的，如果未来五年房价横盘甚至阴跌，他们等于高位站岗。 无房的人看似逃过一劫，但也要面对租金的持续上涨，核心地段的两居室，五年前七千，现在九千。 五年后破万几乎是肯定的，这笔支出是纯消费，不像月供至少还在积累资产。 但他们的优势是灵活，工作换城市说走就走，遇到行业下行也不至于被房贷捆死。 还有个容易被忽视的因素：维护成本。 有房的人都知道，物业费、采暖费、 ...

Core Insights - A significant population migration trend is emerging in China, with over half of the population expected to flow into several core cities [1][3] - The attractiveness of these cities is driven by better job opportunities, industry policies, and public services, particularly in education and healthcare [4][8] - The potential for a rebound in housing prices is complex, influenced by both population influx and ongoing policy regulations [5][7] Population Migration - The migration is primarily from third and fourth-tier cities experiencing industrial decline to first and second-tier cities with abundant job opportunities [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan are seeing substantial net inflows, with Hangzhou reportedly gaining tens of thousands of residents last year [3][8] Housing Market Dynamics - The introduction of new policies, such as reduced down payments and interest rates, has provided a boost to the market, but high inventory levels in lower-tier cities may limit immediate price surges [7] - Cities with significant population inflows, like Shenzhen and Hangzhou, are likely to see stabilization and potential increases in housing prices [7][10] Future Urban Landscape - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will continue to be primary population magnets, while cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan are emerging as new hubs [8] - The development of digital economies and rich educational resources in these cities is attracting talent and industries [8] Implications for Individuals - For individuals owning property in these core cities, the trend suggests a high probability of asset appreciation, while those without property may need to act quickly to secure housing [12] - The trend indicates a preference for urban living, with fewer individuals likely to leave major cities for smaller ones, as opportunities in larger cities remain more abundant [12]

还记得2018年，马云说"未来的房子，可能会像葱一样便宜"。那时候各地房价处于快速上涨趋势之中， 开发商疯狂拿地盖房，炒房客连夜排队购房。所以，很多人对马云的预言嗤之以鼻。而现如今，全国平 均房价跌幅超过30%。像鹤岗、铁岭、双鸭山等小城市的房价已经出现了几万元或十几万元就能买套 房。显然，当前国内的房价正朝着马云所说的方向在运行。 实际上，当年马云所说的房价如葱，并不是说未来房价会像葱一样便宜。而是指未来房价会逐步回归到 合理的价格区间，与居民收入挂钩。届时，当地居民只要稍微努力，就能轻松买房。而面对当前房地产 市场的走势，有不少人提出：2026年房价究竟会怎样？事实上，当前出现的5个信号，已经给出了答 案。让我们一起来分析一下： 一直以来，结婚购买婚房、二胎或三胎出生要换大房子，这些都是刚需置业的主力军。而近年来，国内 结婚人数、出生人数却在持续走低。数据显示，2024年全国只有610万对新人登记结婚，比前年少了150 万对，降幅高达20.5%。 信号一，各地二手房挂牌量出现激增 信号二，房地产市场"供远大于求" 当前，国内房地产市场已经过剩了。根据住建部公布数据，我国有6亿栋房子。即使是每栋房子住5个 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in Ganzhou is experiencing a decline in housing prices, with new residential prices decreasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year in October 2025, while second-hand housing prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year [1][7][13]. New Housing Market - In October 2025, new housing prices in Ganzhou continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2% [3][13]. - Throughout the first ten months of 2025, new housing prices in Ganzhou have generally been on a downward trend, with only January and May showing increases [3][13]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Ganzhou has also seen a decline, with prices decreasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year in October 2025 [7][8]. - Since April 2025, second-hand housing prices have been declining in all months except for April, indicating a persistent downward trend [8][9]. Price Trends by Housing Size - For housing sizes, prices for units of 90 square meters and below remained stable, while prices for units between 90-144 square meters and those above 144 square meters decreased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [5][11]. - Overall, all size categories of housing experienced a month-on-month price decline [11]. Comparison with National Trends - Nationally, in October 2025, the average housing prices in 70 major cities also saw a decline, with new housing prices decreasing by 0.5% and second-hand housing prices by 0.7% [13]. - Ganzhou's price decline is less severe compared to the national average, indicating a relative resilience in its housing market [13][15]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing decline in housing prices may be attributed to an increase in supply in the second-hand housing market, particularly in popular areas, leading to intensified market competition and downward price pressure [9][15]. - Ganzhou's housing market stability may be supported by urban development plans, population inflow, and policy support, which have contributed to a certain level of demand [15][16].

Group 1 - In October 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in major cities showed a month-on-month decline across all tiers of cities [2] - The month-on-month sales price of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3%, with Shanghai increasing by 0.3% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [3] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4% in new residential property prices, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 0.5%, which is an increase in the rate of decline by 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.8%, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year sales prices of second-hand residential properties decreased by 4.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - Second-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 5.2% in second-hand residential property prices, while third-tier cities experienced a decline of 5.7%, maintaining the same rate of decline as the previous month [4] Group 3 - The price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities in October 2025 indicates a consistent downward trend across various cities, with specific cities showing varying rates of decline [5][6] - The average price index for new residential properties from January to October 2025 compared to the same period last year shows a general decrease across most cities, reflecting a broader market trend [5][6]

Core Insights - In October, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China showed a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a continued adjustment in the housing market [1][2][4][5][6]. Price Trends - Month-on-month, first-tier cities saw a 0.3% decrease in new residential property prices, consistent with the previous month. Shanghai experienced a 0.3% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2]. - Second-tier cities experienced a 0.4% month-on-month decline, maintaining the same rate as the previous month [2]. - Third-tier cities had a 0.5% month-on-month decline, with the drop expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. Year-on-Year Changes - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a 0.8% decrease in new residential property prices, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shanghai recorded a 5.7% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 2.0%, 4.2%, and 2.6% respectively [4]. - Second-tier cities had a 2.0% year-on-year decline, with the drop narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [5]. - Third-tier cities experienced a 3.4% year-on-year decline, with the rate remaining unchanged from the previous month [6]. Market Observations - In October, seven cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, recorded positive year-on-year price growth, indicating a trend where cities with a high influx of young people tend to maintain stable property prices [6]. - The analysis suggests that the current housing market offers high value for buyers, with a solid foundation for stabilization and improvement [1][6].

每经编辑｜段炼 2025年10月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比和同比均下降。 一、各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降 10月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月相同。其中，上海上涨0.3%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.1%、0.8%和0.7%。二线 城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.5%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。 10月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.1%、0.9%、0.9%和0.9%。 二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点。三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.7%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。 二、各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比下降 | | 城市 | 环比 | 同比 | 1-10月平均 | | | 环比 | 同比 | 1-10月平均 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上月=100 | ...

今天央行刚刚发布了10月的金融数据，我们直接看大家最关心的楼市。 根据最新的数据，我把房价和居民债务关系图更新到了2025年，如下： 如上，最右边的红框指示的是2022年，后面还有三个小山峰，分别代表2023年，2024年，以及2025年，可以看到2025年进入到了 低位震荡模式。 该图是近20年，居民新增贷款和房价的关系图。居民新增贷款是直接转换为楼市增量购买力的，因此居民债务周期就是房价周 期。 我们展开解释下，楼市中一买必定对应一卖，但我们不能说买方必然是看多，卖方必然是看空。因为卖方可能是为了向上置换， 而买方也可能是因为债务压力而向下置换。 所以，具体是看多还是看空，就要看居民贷款，当交易者看多房价，无论他是新购买，还是卖出后置换，必然会增加贷款，因为 他要借用未来的力量，来支撑当下的购买力。 而当一个交易者看空，无论他是出货还是向下置换，他减持房产拿到现金，较大概率也是归还债务。 新增贷款大涨会推动房价上涨（如上图2009年，2016年），新增贷款下跌也会使得房价失去债务支撑而下跌（如上图2022年）。 我们据此数据也在2023年初开始减持京沪房产（点击：）。也在2023年多次建议大家卖房。 有人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase since 2022, with both second and first-tier cities experiencing price declines, leading to uncertainty about future property values by 2025 [1][3][5] Market Trends - As of September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities nationwide is 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, marking 41 consecutive months of month-on-month price declines [1] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have not lifted purchase restrictions, while most other cities have fully relaxed such policies, alongside banks reducing mortgage rates to below 3.5% and down payment ratios to 15% [3] Policy Responses - Various market stimulus policies have been implemented, including tax reductions on property purchases to alleviate buyer pressure, indicating that nearly all available measures have been utilized [3] Diverging Opinions on Future Prices - Some analysts believe that the current price decline is temporary and that the market will stabilize and enter a growth phase, predicting that properties will be worth "golden prices" in five years [3] - Conversely, others argue that factors such as an aging population, nearing the end of urbanization, and a tightening financial environment will lead to reduced housing demand, resulting in properties becoming "cheap as scallions" [5][7] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by a significant imbalance in property ownership, with a few individuals holding multiple properties while many first-time buyers remain unable to afford homes, suggesting a persistent bubble [5][7] - The potential for increased property listings due to investors selling off excess holdings could further pressure prices downward, reinforcing the likelihood of properties becoming more affordable [7] Regional Price Differentiation - There is an expectation of price divergence, with core areas in first-tier cities potentially seeing price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities may experience significant devaluation due to population outflows and limited economic diversity [9] - Notably, average price declines in first-tier city centers have exceeded 30%, with specific areas like Shanghai's Minhang District seeing price drops of up to 50% [9]