Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the optimism about the interest - rate cut has subsided, the US dollar index has rebounded, and the global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the economic data in July was weaker than expected, but policy stimulus has increased, and the domestic risk preference has continued to rise. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. - The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with the short - term macro upward driving force marginally strengthened. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as rare earths, liquor, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals, the domestic stock market continued to rise significantly. With the enhanced policy stimulus and reduced external risks, the domestic risk preference has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated on Monday. After Powell's dovish speech, the international gold price rose sharply. The market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut is over 86%. With stagflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, gold has strong short - term support, but beware of the Fed's attitude reversal [3][4]. - **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Although the current demand is weak and the inventory is rising, with the approaching of the 9.3 parade, supply is likely to decline. It is recommended to treat the steel market as a range - bound oscillation [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Monday. With high steel - mill profits and increasing iron - water production, but due to the approaching parade and sufficient supply, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. With increasing production and supply, the iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6][7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash main contract oscillated strongly on Monday. With high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, the supply - side contradiction suppresses the price, and the upside space is limited [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract was strong on Monday, affected by real - estate news. With stable supply and limited demand growth, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: High tariffs affect the economy, and with increasing copper - mine supply and weakening domestic demand, the strong copper - price trend is hard to sustain [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose significantly on Monday, boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. With increasing inventory, the medium - term upside space is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: With tight scrap - aluminum supply, high production costs, and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Tin**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment decline, it is expected to oscillate widely, short - term bearish and long - term bullish [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With the black and polysilicon markets oscillating at high levels, the industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in a range [13]. - **Polysilicon**: Facing the game between strong expectations and weak reality, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: With the restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals, the price is under pressure. However, with the approaching of the traditional downstream peak season and the planned restart of MTO plants, the fundamentals are improving marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - **PP**: With increasing supply pressure and a slight increase in downstream demand, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season stocking [16]. - **LLDPE**: With continuous supply pressure and a turning - point in demand, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish, with attention to demand and stocking [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybeans closed down. The US soybean export inspection volume and the crop's good - to - excellent rate were better than expected, increasing the pressure of a bumper - harvest expectation [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of inventory accumulation of domestic oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal has eased. The supply in the fourth quarter may shrink, and rapeseed meal still has an upward - fluctuation basis [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed - oil port inventory has been decreasing, and the supply - contraction expectation is strong. The soybean - oil cost expectation has strengthened, and a low - valuation rebound is expected [19]. - **Palm Oil**: In the production - increasing cycle, with no prominent supply - demand contradiction and no incremental consumption expectation from policies, the market may enter an oscillation. The domestic demand is restricted by the soybean - palm - oil price difference, and the inventory is decreasing [20]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and there is some support from secondary fattening. However, with the increase in secondary - fattening transportation costs and limited replenishment, the market's pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with notable gains in various companies following comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Company Performance - Northern Copper Industry has reached its daily limit increase - Jiangxi Copper, Silver Nonferrous, Electrical Alloy, and Yunnan Copper have all surged over 5% - Other companies such as Luoping Zinc & Electricity, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Yun Aluminum have also seen significant gains [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the early session, with the ChiNext index leading the decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 1.71% [1] - A total of over 3,400 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based sell-off [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, saw a rebound, with Jiugui Liquor achieving two consecutive trading limits [2] - Non-ferrous metal stocks showed strength, with Luoping Zinc & Electricity hitting the daily limit [2] - AI glasses concept stocks were active, with Kosen Technology achieving four consecutive trading limits [2] Declining Stocks - High-priced stocks collectively experienced significant declines, with companies like Huasheng Tiancheng hitting the daily limit down [3] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 135 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] Individual Stock Highlights - Northern Rare Earth had a trading volume exceeding 10.9 billion yuan, leading the market [5] - Other notable stocks by trading volume included Dongfang Caifu, Sichuan Changhong, and Lio Co., Ltd. [5]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.71% as of the midday close [1][2] Sector Performance - Despite the overall market decline, liquor stocks showed resilience, with JiuGuiJiu achieving two consecutive trading limits [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector saw strong performance, with stocks like Luoping Zinc and Yunnan Zinc Industry hitting the daily limit [1] - AI glasses concept stocks were active, with Kosen Technology achieving four consecutive trading limits [1] - Conversely, the CRO sector experienced adjustments, while communication equipment and fintech sectors faced the largest declines [1] Concept Index Performance - The top-performing concept indices included Plant Lighting (up 4.46%), 3D Glass (up 2.81%), and AI Glasses (up 2.33%) [3] - Underperforming sectors included F5G concept (down 2.29%), Hepatitis concept (down 2.40%), and Web3.0 (down 2.46%) [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong performance in the morning session, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.88% to 25,439.91 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a gain of 2.35% to 5,566.72 points [1] - The market sentiment has improved significantly, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index climbing 470 points above the 25,000 mark [1] Sector Performance - Major sectors such as large technology stocks, financials (insurance, banks, brokerages), and state-owned enterprises saw collective gains, contributing to the overall market rally [3] - Notable stock performances included Alibaba rising by 4.37%, and Meituan, Tencent, and Baidu each increasing by over 3% [3] - The biopharmaceutical sector also experienced significant gains, with companies like CanSino Biologics, Zai Lab, and Innovent Biologics leading the innovation drug concept [3] Individual Stock Highlights - Among brokerage stocks, Guolian Minsheng surged nearly 8%, leading the rise in Chinese brokerage shares [3] - Other financial stocks such as AIA Group, China Ping An, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China also recorded notable increases [3] Declining Stocks - Conversely, sectors such as gaming and paper manufacturing faced declines, with Galaxy Entertainment dropping as much as 4% during trading [3] - Other companies in the paper industry, including Chenming Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, also saw declines [3] - Additionally, nearly 30 stocks in the market experienced declines of over 10% [3]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector opened with significant gains, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. rising over 7% [1] - Other stocks such as Yuyuan Powder Materials, Electric Alloy, Northern Copper Industry, and Yunnan Copper also experienced increases [1] - The market reaction is influenced by Trump's announcement that copper tariffs will reach 50% [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.36% and the Hang Seng Tech Index opened down 0.48% [1] - On its first trading day, Da Zhong Kou Qiang (02651.HK) rose by 20%, while Lens Technology (06613.HK) increased by over 3% [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strength, with China Dazhi Nonferrous Metals (00661.HK) rising by over 13% following Trump's announcement that copper tariffs would reach 50% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced significant stock price increases, particularly with North Copper rising over 7%, driven by market dynamics and external factors [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - North Copper's stock increased by over 7% during the trading session [1] - Other companies such as Jingyi Co., Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, Electric Alloy, Zhongfu Industrial, Tianshan Aluminum, and Baiyin Nonferrous also saw price increases [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A report from Wukuang Securities highlighted renewed discussions around U.S. copper tariffs, alongside low LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels leading to warehouse congestion [1] - The LME copper prices have broken through their previous trading range and are showing a strong upward trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is advised to monitor the results and implementation timeline of the Section 232 investigation, as copper prices are expected to rise ahead of any potential tariff imposition [1]

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited mixed performance on June 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.34% [1] - The banking sector experienced a significant pullback, contributing to the divergence in indices, while the computing power industry chain, including optical modules, saw strong gains [1] - Nvidia's stock reached a new all-time high, reaffirming its position as the world's "king of market value," reflecting the ongoing surge in global AI computing power demand [1] Sector Highlights Brokerage Sector - Brokerage stocks experienced significant volatility, with Tianfeng Securities hitting the daily limit. Other financial concepts, including multi-financial and stablecoin stocks, also showed activity [2] - Tianfeng International Securities upgraded its trading license to offer virtual asset trading services, which is expected to reshape the non-bank financial industry [2] Nonferrous Metals - Nonferrous metal stocks surged, with Electric Alloy hitting a 20% limit up, and several other stocks like Northern Copper and Huayang New Materials also reaching their limits [3] - On June 27, copper futures rose nearly 2%, surpassing 80,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high since early April. Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices could peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to tightening supply outside the U.S. [3] Xiaomi Automotive - The Xiaomi automotive sector was active, with stocks like Mould Technology and Ningbo Huaxiang hitting their limits. Xiaomi's first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, received over 200,000 pre-orders within three minutes of its launch [4] - Following the launch, Xiaomi's ADR surged nearly 10%, indicating strong market interest and potential benefits for the supply chain [4] Water Conservancy - The water conservancy construction sector saw a rally, with stocks like Hanjian Heshan and Chengbang Co. hitting their limits [5] - Recent government initiatives to enhance river protection and water security are expected to sustain robust growth in infrastructure investment, particularly in water conservancy [5] Institutional Insights Shenyin Wanguo - The firm anticipates a short-term need for market consolidation but expects limited downside risk. They highlight a potential rebound in technology stocks and suggest focusing on defensive assets like banks benefiting from insurance stakes [7] Dongfang Securities - The firm emphasizes the importance of maintaining market stability as a clear policy goal, with a stable economic outlook. They predict that July's earnings reports will significantly influence stock performance [8] Everbright Securities - The firm notes that after a continuous rise, the market may experience profit-taking, leading to a period of index fluctuations and sector rotation [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced a high and then a pullback, with mixed performance across the three major indices [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.54 trillion, a decrease of 42.1 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The computing hardware sector showed strong performance, with Lian Te Technology hitting the daily limit up [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector rebounded, with companies like Beifang Copper Industry also reaching the daily limit up [1] - Large financial stocks initially surged, with Hongye Futures achieving four consecutive limit ups [1] - Conversely, bank stocks collectively adjusted, with nearly 20 bank stocks dropping over 3% [1] Index Performance - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.47% [1] Leading and Lagging Sectors - The sectors with the highest gains included non-ferrous metals, copper cable high-speed connections, CPO, and diversified finance [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included banking, oil and gas, cross-border payments, and liquor [1]