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有色套利早报-20251114
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 00:50
Report Overview - The report is a non - ferrous metals arbitrage morning report released by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center on November 14, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking for multiple non - ferrous metals [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,210, the three - month price was 87,580, the LME three - month price was 10,963, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] Zinc - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 22,785, the LME three - month price was 3,089, and the ratio was 5.75 [1] Aluminum - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 22,050, the LME three - month price was 2,902, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] Lead - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 17,670, the LME three - month price was 2,089, and the ratio was 10.85 [1][3] Nickel - On November 14, 2025, the profit from spot import was - 2,084.11 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 770, 800, 840, and 810 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 536, 970, 1413, and 1856 [4] Zinc - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 130, 175, 210, and 235 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4] Aluminum - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 200, 250, 250, and 265 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 220, 341, 462, and 583 [4] Lead - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 50, 70, 70, and 85 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 213, 322, 431, and 540 [4] Nickel - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 630, 800, 1040, and 1220 [4] Tin - On November 14, 2025, the 5 - 1 spread was - 740, with a theoretical spread of 6161 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 380 and 390 respectively [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 14, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.84, 3.97, 4.96, 0.97, 1.25, and 0.78 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20251111
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 00:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - The report provides multi - dimensional arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 11, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - term, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage [1][2][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,530, the LME price was 10,765, with a ratio of 7.99; the three - month domestic price was 86,520, the LME price was 10,780, with a ratio of 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.08, and the profit was - 519.15. The profit for spot export was 112.61 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,560, the LME price was 3,254, with a ratio of 6.93; the three - month domestic price was 22,710, the LME price was 3,077, with a ratio of 5.69. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, and the profit was - 5,080.28 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,490, the LME price was 2,866, with a ratio of 7.49; the three - month domestic price was 21,725, the LME price was 2,882, with a ratio of 7.52. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, and the profit was - 2,390.99 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,800, the LME price was 14,899, with a ratio of 8.24. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18, and the profit was - 1,720.63 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,300, the LME price was 2,042, with a ratio of 8.47; the three - month domestic price was 17,505, the LME price was 2,054, with a ratio of 11.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the profit was - 503.78 [6] Cross - Term Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 560, 600, 610, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 532, 961, 1400, and 1838 [2] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10, 50, 45, and 85, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 339, 461, and 583 [2] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 130, 175, 175, and 185, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 458, and 578 [2] - **Lead**: The spreads were 145, 145, 130, and 155, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 427, and 535 [2] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 540, 710, 920, and 1190 [2] - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 630, and the theoretical spread was 5926 [2] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 570 and - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 59 and 619 [2] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 100 and 110, and the theoretical spreads were 103 and 235 [2] - **Lead**: The spreads were 60 and 205, and the theoretical spreads were 100 and 215 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 11, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.81, 3.98, 4.94, 0.96, 1.24, and 0.77 respectively; in London (three - continuous), they were 3.50, 3.76, 5.24, 0.93, 1.39, and 0.67 [3]
侃股:单一股票策略将逐渐远去
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-06 12:22
Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the steady development of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization, elevating the strategic position of the derivatives market, which is significant for capital market development [1] - The A-share market is expected to mature, moving away from single stock strategies towards more complex combinations and strategies, raising the knowledge threshold for investors [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In international markets, stock trading activity is lower than in the A-share market, with many listed companies having an annual turnover rate of less than 100%, primarily due to the limited direct stock holdings by retail investors [1] - Retail investors typically invest through mutual funds, which handle stock transactions via subscription and redemption, offsetting these transactions before executing stock trades [1][2] Group 2: Role of Derivatives - Mutual funds prioritize using financial derivatives to manage equity changes, minimizing direct stock trading to maintain portfolio stability [1][2] - Financial products like leveraged funds, bull and bear certificates, and index futures/options allow funds to achieve asset allocation without directly buying or selling stocks [2] Group 3: Future Investment Landscape - The future landscape will see institutional investors and funds as the primary shareholders, focusing on company fundamentals rather than stock price fluctuations, leading to a decrease in retail investor participation [2][3] - Investment strategies will shift from simple stock trading to utilizing derivatives for implied volatility, strike prices, and arbitrage opportunities, resulting in lower expectations for direct stock trading returns [3]
有色套利早报-20251106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 00:33
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 6, 2025 [1][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 85,470, March price is 85,690, LME March price is 10,668, and the ratio is 8.00 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22,500, March price is 22,690, LME March price is 3,072, and the ratio is 5.70 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 21,300, March price is 21,435, LME March price is 2,857, and the ratio is 7.47 [1] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 122,000, and the profit of spot import is - 1,264.30 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 17,275, March price is 17,495, LME March price is 2,022, and the ratio is 11.16 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 30, - 10, 20, and 10 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 531, 959, 1397, and 1834 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are 35, 75, 80, and 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 30, 10, 10, and 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 218, 337, 456, and 576 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 85, 105, 95, and 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 212, 320, 428, and 536 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 640, 840, 1020, and 1310 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 370, and the theoretical spread is 5834 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 395 and 365 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 259 and 727 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are 115 and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 131 and 254 [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads are 115 and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 127 and 242 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.78, 4.00, 4.90, 0.94, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively [5]
广发期货日评-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:42
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2) Core Views - The A-share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly report release, with trading sentiment being cold and the direction unclear [2]. - Bond interest rates are expected to have a lower fluctuation range, and investors can consider appropriate long - positions on 10 - year Treasury bonds on dips [2]. - Precious metals are under pressure from liquidity tightening and a stronger dollar, with gold and silver showing different short - term trends [2]. - The shipping index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - The steel and iron ore markets have complex supply - demand situations, with different trading strategies for each contract [2]. - The energy and chemical sector has diverse trends, with some products like MEG expected to decline and others having different trading opportunities [2]. - The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy details, with different trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Special and new energy products also have their own price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market's upward movement and profit - taking, there is a slight correction. It is recommended to wait and see as the direction is not clear [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Long positions on dips and positive arbitrage strategies are suggested [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has short - term downward pressure but buying support. It can be bought on dips below 3900 dollars (900 yuan). Silver may fall to the previous low of 45 dollars (11000 yuan), and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) is short - term volatile, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore Futures**: For steel, a long - coal and short - coil strategy is recommended for the January 2026 contract. For iron ore, short positions are recommended on rallies for the 2601 contract, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is also suggested [2]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have limited rebound space, and short positions on rallies are recommended; MEG is expected to decline, and holding out - of - the - money call options and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are suggested [2]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Products like soybeans, corn, and palm oil have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, long positions in the 2601 soybean contract should be held cautiously, and the palm oil may test the 8500 - yuan support [2]. - **Special and New Energy Futures**: Glass offers short - long opportunities by observing the spot market; industrial silicon and polysilicon have price fluctuation ranges, and lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [2].
有色套利早报-20251105
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 00:56
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report Core View The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 5, 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities in the non - ferrous metal market [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 5, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,580, the LME price was 10,662, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.10 with a profit of - 554.65. The three - month domestic price was 85,710, the LME price was 10,692, and the ratio was 8.08 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,600, the LME price was 3,224, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.51 with a profit of - 4,843.44. The three - month domestic price was 22,700, the LME price was 3,086, and the ratio was 5.66 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,440, the LME price was 2,876, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.34 with a profit of - 2,562.83. The three - month domestic price was 21,500, the LME price was 2,883, and the ratio was 7.43 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,000, the LME price was 14,856, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.19 with a profit of - 1,264.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,250, the LME price was 1,996, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.74 with a profit of - 197.85. The three - month domestic price was 17,425, the LME price was 2,020, and the ratio was 11.22 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 5, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 1,520, - 1,550, - 1,510, and - 1,490 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 538, 975, 1,420, and 1,865 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 155, 185, 195, and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 337, 459, and 580 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 125, - 90, - 90, and - 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, and 579 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 25, 35, 20, and 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 536 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 890, - 650, - 420, and - 220 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 950, and the theoretical spread was 5,871 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 715 and - 805 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 343 and 600 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 85 and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 124 and 255 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 140 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 135 and 250 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking On November 5, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.78, 3.99, 4.92, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.45, 3.73, 5.27, 0.93, 1.41, and 0.66 respectively [5].
广发期货日评-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:35
Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Outlook - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment has improved slightly, with different sectors showing various trends. The stock index market is in a shrinking and volatile state, the bond market interest rate is expected to decline, and the precious metal market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. Commodity markets such as black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products also have their own characteristics and trends [2] Group 3: Sector - by - Sector Summaries Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is volatile after a short - term high, with the cyclical sectors outperforming. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond interest rate is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to trade between $3995 - $4070 (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to trade within the range or sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices. Silver is in a range of $47 - $50 (11000 - 11700 yuan) [2] Commodity Sector Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: It is in short - term shock, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand is rising, and inventory pressure is relieved. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to go short on rallies for the January 2026 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support level of 86000 - 86500 [2] - **Alumina**: The main contract is expected to run in the range of 2750 - 2900 [2] - **Aluminum**: The price has broken through recent highs, and short - term corrections should be watched out for. The main reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2] - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating strongly, with a reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2] - **Tin**: It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Nickel**: The main reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 12500 - 13000 [2] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [2] - **PTA**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2] - **Short - Fiber**: The rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [2] - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The upward drive is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on rallies [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is under pressure, and a bearish view is recommended [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction is not improved, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] - **Benzene**: It is recommended to be bearish on rallies following the oil price [2] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance. It is recommended to be bearish on the rebound of the December contract [2] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is poor. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2] - **PP**: The trading is light, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - **Methanol**: Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 3 - 5 spread [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: China has started to purchase US soybeans, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the January 2026 contract [2] - **Pig**: The supply - demand is loose, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Corn**: The supply has decreased, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2] - **Oil**: The fundamentals are bearish, and the Y main contract may test the support of 8000 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is loose, and the domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, oscillating at the bottom around 5450 - 5550 [2] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, oscillating in the range of 13500 - 13800 [2] - **Egg**: It is short - term strong but long - term bearish. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage and short - selling opportunities [2] - **Apple**: The price of ground fruits in Shandong has declined, and attention should be paid to the support of 9000 yuan [2] - **Jujube**: The jujubes are concentrated on the ground, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support of 10000 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The surplus pattern continues, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The change of production lines in Shahe has affected the market. Attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales to capture short - term long opportunities [2] - **Rubber**: The inventory of dark - colored rubber has reached an inflection point, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - **Industrial Silicon**: The operating rate has decreased, and the price may be strong after oscillating [2] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of platform company implementation. The price may be strong after oscillating [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan [2]
有色套利早报-20251104
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 00:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 4, 2025 [1][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86840, the LME spot price was 10886, with a ratio of 7.99; the domestic three - month price was 87380, the LME three - month price was 10912, with a ratio of 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09, and the profit was - 840.38 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22340, the LME spot price was 3207, with a ratio of 6.97; the domestic three - month price was 22595, the LME three - month price was 3077, with a ratio of 5.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, and the profit was - 4933.31 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21440, the LME spot price was 2906, with a ratio of 7.38; the domestic three - month price was 21605, the LME three - month price was 2911, with a ratio of 7.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, and the profit was - 2776.92 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123150, the LME spot price was 15049, with a ratio of 8.18. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18, and the profit was - 1794.93 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17175, the LME spot price was 1999, with a ratio of 8.62; the domestic three - month price was 17430, the LME three - month price was 2027, with a ratio of 11.07. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.73, and the profit was - 228.43 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 270, 350, 300, and 300 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 537, 972, 1416, and 1861 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 215, 245, 250, and 260, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 456, and 577 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 305, 310, 300, and 305, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 336, 454, and 573 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 110, 120, 90, and 130, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 319, 427, and 534 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 660, 890, 1070, and 1290 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was - 920, and the theoretical spread was 5910 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 215 and 485 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 288 and 808 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10 and 225, and the theoretical spreads were 150 and 280 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 135 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 138 and 252 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 4, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 3.87, 4.04, 5.01, 0.96, 1.24, and 0.77 respectively; the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.50, 3.74, 5.36, 0.94, 1.43, and 0.65 [5].
有色套利早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 31, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88050, LME spot price was 11021, with a spot ratio of 8.04; the domestic March price was 87970, LME March price was 11042, with a March ratio of 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22250, LME spot price was 3159, with a spot ratio of 7.04; the domestic March price was 22405, LME March price was 3063, with a March ratio of 5.67. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, and the loss for spot import was 4588.92 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21200, LME spot price was 2856, with a spot ratio of 7.42; the domestic March price was 21280, LME March price was 2861, with a March ratio of 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, and the loss for spot import was 2576.57 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123500, LME spot price was 15070, with a spot ratio of 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the loss for spot import was 1464.30 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17150, LME spot price was 1991, with a spot ratio of 8.64; the domestic March price was 17355, LME March price was 2025, with a March ratio of 11.04. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the loss for spot import was 160.71 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month and spot - month, March and spot - month, April and spot - month, May and spot - month were - 720, - 710, - 720, - 710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 545, 989, 1441, 1894 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 15, 25, 45, 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 25, 10, 25, 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 336, 454, 572 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, - 15, - 10, 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, 535 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 270, - 140, 130, 360 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 740, and the theoretical spread was 5866 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract and spot, next - month contract and spot were 655, - 65 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 404, 785 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 130, 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 144, 267 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 220, 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 162, 276 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.93, 4.13, 5.07, 0.95, 1.23, 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.81, 5.41, 0.94, 1.42, 0.66 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20251030
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 30, 2025, to assist in identifying potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 30, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,770, the LME spot price was 11,095, and the spot price ratio was 7.84; the domestic three - month price was 88,700, the LME three - month price was 11,115, and the three - month price ratio was 7.90. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,280, the LME spot price was 3,198, and the spot price ratio was 6.97; the domestic three - month price was 22,455, the LME three - month price was 3,065, and the three - month price ratio was 5.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a loss of 4,825.07 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,170, the LME spot price was 2,904, and the spot price ratio was 7.29; the domestic three - month price was 21,330, the LME three - month price was 2,905, and the three - month price ratio was 7.31. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a loss of 2,941.11 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,150, the LME spot price was 1,989, and the spot price ratio was 8.65; the domestic three - month price was 17,380, the LME three - month price was 2,024, and the three - month price ratio was 11.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.70, with a loss of 112.78 [3]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,950, the LME spot price was 15,121, and the spot price ratio was 8.13. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.16, with a loss of 1,245.29 [1]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 1,720, 1,710, 1,650, and 1,630 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 537, 972, 1,416, and 1,860 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 155, 180, 210, and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 175, 210, 225, and 230 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 569 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 5, 15, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 536 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1,240, 1,390, 1,620, and 1,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 890, and the theoretical spread was 5,929 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 740 and 980 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214 and 950 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 5 and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 156 and 286 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 225 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 166 and 280 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Ratio of Different Metals**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.95, 4.16, 5.10, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts), they were 3.61, 3.86, 5.49, 0.93, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5].