美联储宣布第三次降息那晚，华盛顿的会议室里灯还亮着，门外的记者群像喧哗着等待声明，但真正的 静默在决策者眼里蔓延——他们知道这是一次不寻常的押注，也是一个可能无法回头的赌注。 凌晨时分，我在国会山脚下的一家小酒馆碰到一位前财政部官员，他不愿透露姓名，只说话直率，认为 降息是为政治压力让路，为债务续命，也是给科技和制造业留些喘息空间。 8月的非农数字像一张暗色的便签插在报告里，新增就业仅2.2万，失业率回升到4.3%，这些数字在华尔 街被反复放大又被政治化讨论，成为推动决策的现实底座。 美联储内部的会议记录显示，某些理事曾建议一次性下调50个基点，这种罕见的极端建议折射出政策制 定的紧张与分裂，也透露出政治对央行的持续渗透。 走进旧金山的一家私募基金办公室，基金经理用白板划出资金流向图，资金从美国股债市场逐步迁出， 流向那些被视为"稳健而有增长"的人民币资产，这个图像无声地证明了资本配置在变动。 在上海陆家嘴的一栋写字楼里，若干外资团队正加速布局人民币长期产品，他们口径一致，讲的是市场 化、法制配套与中国完整产业链的稳定性，这些词汇成了他们押注的理由。 全球央行的利率地图在近年变成一幅分化的图景，美国降息，欧洲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The platinum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by supply-demand imbalances and macroeconomic factors, with prices expected to remain robust in the short term [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures opened at 482.00 CNY/g and reached a high of 505.60 CNY/g, with a price increase of 3.99% during the trading session [1]. - The trading volume of platinum and palladium has surged, with positions exceeding 1.5 times that of the previous day, indicating strong market activity [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand imbalance in the platinum market resembles a structural tightness similar to that of silver, leading to a squeeze in the market [2]. - Short-term supply constraints are providing fundamental support for palladium prices, while the increase in silver prices is also positively impacting platinum and palladium [2][3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the price increase of platinum and palladium, supported by resilient consumer demand and geopolitical uncertainties affecting the stability of exports from major producing countries [3]. - The current high basis and price differentials between platinum and palladium are attracting arbitrage funds, which are increasing physical inventory and driving up spot prices [2].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 陈骏昊 国泰君安期货市场分析师 Z0021546 今日铂族金属表现活跃，在前期黄金和白银相继上涨之后，铂钯"异军突起"，今日领涨盘面。铂金主力 合约涨停，收报482.40元/克，钯金主力合约大涨超4%，收报407.60元/克。那么铂钯的上涨驱动有哪 些？两者与黄金走势的关联性有多大？ 基本面分析： 1．宏观、地缘情绪支撑：一方面美联储在降息靴子落地后，整体宽松预期仍未完全扭转；另一方面， 地缘风险持续，在金银价格强势表现后，铂族金属获得一定补涨动能。 2．现货矛盾持续：伦敦铂钯租借利率再度回升，现货流动性趋紧，钯金ETF持仓边际增速持续上行， 投资需求进一步收紧现货流通，强化价格上涨动能。 属板块情绪较强。 但同时，黄金和铂钯的差异性也较为明显，主要在于根本属性不同。从金融属性来看，黄金＞铂＞钯， 而从工业属性来看正好相反，钯＞铂＞黄金。 一般来说，当投资者寻求避险和确定性时，可关注黄金"避险之王"的作用，表现通常更稳健；当经济复 苏或工业需求繁荣时，可关注铂、钯强劲的工业需求表现。在进行资产配置时，可将铂钯作为对黄金投 资的补充，增强组合弹性 ...

国内两大交易所白银库存"危机"似乎还在持续之中。 智通财经记者 | 韩理 Wind数据显示，11月24日当周上海黄金交易所白银库存下降58.83吨，降至715.875吨，创下2016年7月3 日以来新低。类似的，继上周上期所白银库存创下2016年1月以来库存新低之后，11月25日，该库库存 虽勉强累库21.3吨，但仍然处于近十年低位。 为应对这一现象，伦敦金属交易所近期筹划推出新的永久性近月借出规则，对持有近月合约头寸超过 LME总库存一定比例的会员实施分级溢价限制，防范在低库存下因大额持仓导致的"逼仓"风险，以稳定 近月合约价格的波动。 11月8日，伦敦金属交易所还一度暂停了黄金非美元交易，以防止部分大额持仓会员利用部分币种交易 的低流动性进行市场操纵。 另一方面，国内库存与美国COMEX库存联动和跨境套利虽然并不频繁，但国内白银库存下降却有自洽 的逻辑。 从某种程度上来说，与十年前相比，白银不再是黄金的依附的次级贵金属——在光伏领域，TOPCon和 HJT等N型电池对当前P型电池的替代，令白银用量显著增长。而在汽车电子领域，追求速度感的新一代 电动车中，碳化硅模组的使用率不断增加，高导电，强耐腐的银浆烧结 ...

Core Viewpoint - Flexbase Group is developing a significant energy storage project in Switzerland, which is expected to be one of the largest flow battery storage projects in Europe, integrating grid storage, data centers, and regional heating networks [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project involves the construction of an 800 MW/1.6 GWh redox flow battery storage facility in Laufenburg, Switzerland, with plans for commercial operation by summer 2028 [1][2]. - The facility will occupy 20,000 square meters and is strategically located at a grid interconnection hub that connects Switzerland, Germany, and France, featuring 41 cross-border lines [1][2]. Group 2: Investment and Capacity - Although the specific investment amount is undisclosed, reports suggest it is a "multi-billion euro project" [2]. - The 1.6 GWh capacity significantly exceeds typical grid storage projects, with the largest operational battery storage project in the UK being 320 MWh and most German projects ranging from 50-200 MWh [2]. Group 3: Technology and Safety - The redox flow battery technology offers unique advantages for long-duration energy storage, utilizing liquid electrolytes based on vanadium or bromine, which are considered non-flammable due to their 75% water content [2]. Group 4: Integrated Development Model - The project distinguishes itself from conventional storage projects by integrating an AI data center, which will utilize waste heat to support the regional heating network, benefiting nearby towns and industrial facilities with high thermal energy demands [2]. Group 5: Economic Impact - Flexbase anticipates that the comprehensive facility will create 300-350 jobs in the local area [2]. - The project's location leverages Laufenburg's position as a core European grid hub, aiming to maximize revenue through cross-border arbitrage and grid services [2].