Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price is expected to decrease by 150 yuan/ton, marking the 12th price reduction of the year, with a significant impact on consumer prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current pricing cycle has completed 80% of its 10-working-day adjustment period, with only 4 days remaining until the final price adjustment window of 2025 [1]. - The anticipated reduction of 150 yuan/ton translates to a decrease of approximately 0.11-0.13 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [1]. - If the reduction is implemented, the national average price for 92-octane gasoline could drop to around 6.7 yuan/liter, with some regions potentially seeing prices near 6.5 yuan/liter, the lowest in recent years [3]. Group 2: International Oil Prices - Despite a recent rebound in international oil prices, the average prices for WTI and Brent crude oil have declined, contributing to the domestic price drop [1]. - As of December 17, WTI crude oil was priced at $55.94 per barrel, and Brent crude at $59.68 per barrel, with respective increases of 1.21% and 1.29% [1]. - The average WTI price for the current cycle is $57.33 per barrel, while Brent's average is $61.03 per barrel, both lower than previous averages, leading to an expanded domestic price reduction [1]. Group 3: Regional Price Variations - As of December 18, the national average prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-diesel are 6.83 yuan/liter, 7.29 yuan/liter, and 6.45 yuan/liter, respectively [3]. - Regional price variations show that in areas like Xinjiang, the price for 92-octane gasoline could approach 6.5 yuan/liter, indicating significant regional disparities [3]. Group 4: Yearly Overview - The overall price reduction for the year is projected to exceed 0.7 yuan/liter, making it the largest annual decline in recent years [3]. - This final adjustment represents the last opportunity for consumers to benefit from lower prices in 2025, encouraging strategic refueling decisions [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined, with a rapid weakening of global supply and demand. On - land and on - water inventories increased significantly, and the Dubai monthly spread further weakened. Geopolitically, the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations continued. There were rumors that Russia had found more ways to export crude oil. The CPC No. 3 berth was expected to resume on the 17th. Global gasoline and diesel cracks declined, US refinery operations recovered to over 94%, and domestic refinery operations fluctuated. The fundamental surplus intensified. If there were no new geopolitical changes, the surplus in the first quarter would be close to that during the pandemic, and short - term monthly spreads and absolute prices should be short - allocated [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From December 10 - 16, 2025, WTI decreased by $1.55, BRENT decreased by $1.64, and DUBAI decreased by $0.71. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 6.00, and domestic diesel decreasing by 6.00 [3] 3.2 News - Trump ordered a "full and complete blockade" of all sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, which marked an escalation of pressure on Maduro. A sanctioned tanker was seized by the US near the Venezuelan coast last week. The discount of Venezuelan Merey crude oil has widened to $21 per barrel lower than Brent crude oil, compared to $14 - 15 per barrel last week [3][4] 3.3 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 12 was - 932.2 barrels (expected - 219.7 barrels, previous - 477.9 barrels). Other inventory data for gasoline, refined oil, etc. are also provided for different time intervals [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices continue to decline due to progress in negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Brent crude falling to $59.94 per barrel and WTI crude to $56.06 per barrel, marking the lowest levels since 2021 [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Brent crude oil decreased by 1% and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.1% [1] - Both benchmark oil prices have dropped 20% year-to-date due to oversupply and weak demand [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group indicate that expectations of oversupply are increasing, suggesting oil prices may continue to decline throughout the year [1] - Factors contributing to oversupply include OPEC+ restoring idle capacity and increased production from other regions [1] - Any potential easing of sanctions on Russia could further exacerbate the downward risks for oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have experienced a consecutive decline, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by a cumulative 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, returning to levels seen at the end of October this year [1][3]. Price Changes - The latest price adjustments have brought gasoline prices in Shanghai to 6.81 yuan per liter, marking the lowest level of the year [1]. - The next pricing cycle will begin on December 9, with expectations for further price reductions due to a negative change rate in crude oil [3]. Market Conditions - International oil prices are currently experiencing a weak fluctuation, influenced by global economic concerns and an oversupply expectation due to increased production from the U.S. and OPEC+ [3]. - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil is priced at 56.82 USD per barrel, while Brent crude is at 60.56 USD per barrel, with an average price of 59.75 USD per barrel expected by December 22 [3]. Future Projections - The forecast indicates that gasoline and diesel prices may continue to decline, potentially leading to the 12th price drop of the year by the next adjustment [3]. - The overall decline in oil prices is expected to reach a four-year low, with 92 gasoline prices possibly falling below 6.7 yuan per liter, reducing costs for consumers [3]. Regional Price Overview - A detailed table of gasoline and diesel prices across various regions shows significant variations, with prices for 92 gasoline ranging from 6.68 to 7.96 yuan per liter in different provinces [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined, with a rapid weakening of global supply and demand. There was a significant build - up in on - land and waterborne inventories, and the Dubai monthly spread weakened further. Geopolitically, the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations continued. There were rumors that Russia had found more ways to export crude oil. The CPC No. 3 berth is expected to resume on the 17th. Global gasoline and diesel cracks declined, US refinery operations recovered to over 94%, and domestic refinery operations fluctuated. The fundamental surplus has intensified. Without new geopolitical changes, the surplus in the first quarter will be close to that during the pandemic. Short - term monthly spreads and absolute prices should be short - allocated [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Spread Data - From December 9th to 15th, WTI decreased by $0.62, BRENT by $0.56, and DUBAI by $0.36. SC - BRT increased by $0.39, and SC - WTI increased by $0.45. Domestic gasoline decreased by $80, and domestic diesel decreased by $120 [3] 2. Daily News - The EU announced new sanctions on parties related to Russia's "shadow fleet" on December 15th, adding 5 individuals and 4 entities to the sanctions list. It also added 12 individuals and 2 entities due to Russia's "hybrid threats" [3] - After the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, multiple oil tankers turned back, paralyzing Venezuela's oil exports. Over 11 million barrels of crude oil were stranded in Venezuelan waters [3] - As the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations made progress, US crude oil futures fell by $1 during the day [4] 3. Inventory - For the week ending December 5th, EIA crude oil inventory was - 1.812 million barrels, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 248,000 barrels, EIA gasoline inventory was 6.397 million barrels, EIA refined oil inventory was 2.502 million barrels, and EIA Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventory was 308,000 barrels. The EIA refinery equipment utilization rate was 94.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices continue to decline, with SC crude oil hitting a new low for the year and Brent crude falling below $60, indicating a bearish market outlook driven by geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][17]. Market Dynamics - On Monday, WTI crude oil futures closed down by $0.62, a decrease of 1.08%, settling at $56.82 per barrel; Brent crude futures fell by $0.56, or 0.92%, to $60.56 per barrel; and INE crude futures dropped by 1.58% to 430.20 yuan [6][19]. - The market is closely monitoring the negotiations between Ukraine and U.S. representatives regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with reports indicating significant progress and preliminary consensus on key issues [4][20]. Geopolitical Factors - U.S. officials have stated that approximately 90% of the issues between Ukraine and Russia have been resolved, although the final 10% may prove to be the most challenging [5][18]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledged the effectiveness of the Berlin talks but noted differing positions on territorial issues between the U.S. and Ukraine [5][21]. Supply and Demand Insights - The Middle Eastern benchmark Murban crude's spot premium has continued to decline, reaching a two-week low due to ample supply and increased production prospects in the region [9][22]. - China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.9% year-on-year in November, with new import quotas offsetting some of the impacts from refinery maintenance [9][23]. Future Outlook - The overall trend suggests a bearish sentiment for oil prices, with recommendations to consider short-selling opportunities during price rallies [5][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined, with a rapid weakening of global supply - demand. On - land and on - water inventories significantly increased. Dubai's monthly spread further weakened. Geopolitically, the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations continued. There were market rumors that Russia had found more ways to export crude oil. The CPC's third berth is expected to resume operation on the 17th. Global gasoline and diesel cracks declined. US refinery operations recovered to over 94%, and domestic refinery operations fluctuated. The fundamental surplus has intensified. If there are no new geopolitical changes, the surplus in the first quarter will be close to that during the pandemic. In the short term, short - allocate the monthly spread and absolute prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Data - From December 8 - 12, 2025, WTI decreased by $0.16, BRENT by $0.16, and DUBAI by $0.04. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.06, and the WTI - BRENT spread remained unchanged. Other price differences and spreads also showed corresponding changes [3] - During the same period, SC decreased by 2.10, OMAN by $0.21. The SC - BRT spread decreased by $0.09, and the SC - WTI spread decreased by $0.09. Domestic gasoline prices remained stable, with the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increasing by 12.00 [3] - Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $5.50, and the Japanese naphtha - BRT spread decreased by $4.32. Singapore fuel oil 380CST premium increased by 0.9, and the Singapore 380 - BRT spread increased by 3.07. Other related prices also changed accordingly [3] 3.2 Daily News - Iran seized a suspected smuggling oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, detaining 18 crew members. The ship carried about 6 million liters (about 3.7 barrels) of fuel. The US intercepted a tanker related to Iran - Venezuela oil trade a few days ago, and Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the US action as "state piracy" [3] - Ukrainian drones attacked a Russian refinery, causing it to suspend production [4] - The US seized a tanker transporting Venezuelan oil and imposed sanctions on 6 tankers. China firmly opposes illegal unilateral sanctions and "long - arm jurisdiction" without international legal basis [4] - The US is preparing to seize more tankers transporting Venezuelan oil, and many shipping - related parties are reconsidering their routes [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - For the week ending December 5, US EIA crude oil inventory was - 181.2 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 24.8 barrels, gasoline inventory was 639.7 barrels, refined oil inventory was 250.2 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory was 30.8 barrels. Refinery equipment utilization rate was 94.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are on the verge of a significant drop due to potential oversupply from geopolitical developments and increased production from Iraq, which could lead to a relief for consumers at the pump [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Initial optimism arose from potential peace talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but concerns about increased oil supply if sanctions are lifted have dampened this sentiment [1] - Iraq's resumption of production from major oil fields adds to the oversupply concerns in an already volatile market [1] - The market is experiencing extreme fluctuations, reflecting a mix of greed and fear among investors [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.83% to $57.39 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 2.48% to $61.07 per barrel, indicating a collective panic in the market [5] - Domestic oil price adjustments are expected soon, with a projected decrease of 80 yuan per ton, translating to a potential drop of 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [5] - The downward trend in oil prices may continue, with further reductions anticipated if international prices remain low [5] Group 3: Economic Implications - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which typically boosts oil demand, are met with skepticism due to the overwhelming supply pressures [3] - Investors are cautious ahead of the decision, as oil prices struggle within a narrow range, reflecting the uncertainty in the market [3] - The balance between supply and demand remains precarious, with geopolitical factors potentially leading to either a sharp decline or an unexpected rebound in oil prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are experiencing their worst year since the COVID-19 pandemic, with Wall Street predicting that the sell-off is not yet over [1][2] Oil Price Forecast - Current Brent crude oil futures are priced around $62 per barrel [1][2] - Five major investment banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley, predict an average Brent oil price drop to approximately $59 by 2026 [1][2] - Goldman Sachs holds the most pessimistic view, forecasting an average Brent oil price of $56 in 2026, while Citigroup maintains the most optimistic outlook at $62 [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The five banks anticipate a daily supply surplus of about 2.2 million barrels in the global oil market by 2026, driven by production growth outpacing demand growth [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that with gasoline prices dropping to their lowest levels since the pandemic, a record number of Americans are expected to travel by road during the December holiday period [1][2] - Approximately 109.5 million Americans are projected to drive at least 50 miles from December 20 to New Year's Day, representing a 2.2% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The average cost of gasoline has fallen below $3 per gallon for the first time in over four years, with prices in states like Texas and Arkansas nearing $2.50 per gallon [1] Group 2 - Despite rising domestic round-trip airfare prices, which have increased by 7% to an average of nearly $900, the number of travelers choosing to drive is still expected to reach record levels [2] - Gasoline prices may continue to decline due to increased supply as U.S. refineries recover from seasonal maintenance, according to Kpler's chief oil analyst [2] - The rise in electric vehicle adoption and improvements in internal combustion engine efficiency mean that record driving mileage does not necessarily translate into a corresponding increase in gasoline demand [2]