Core Viewpoint - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposed by Deutsche Bank aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reallocating U.S. Treasury ownership from foreign to domestic investors, thereby reducing reliance on foreign capital and financing the deficit through domestic resources [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficits and trade deficits, which complicates the economic landscape [5][6]. - The U.S. has a significantly negative net foreign asset position, leading to a heavy dependence on foreign funding, which constrains its sovereign independence [6][7]. Group 2: Pennsylvania Plan Strategies - The core strategy of the "Pennsylvania Plan" is to facilitate a historic transfer of U.S. Treasury holdings from foreign to domestic investors [9][10]. - The plan includes two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of Treasury risks [10][11]. Group 3: Reducing Foreign Dependence - Foreign investors currently hold a record amount of U.S. sovereign risk, but demand is declining due to geopolitical shifts and increasing fiscal deficits [11][12]. - A proposed solution is to shorten the duration of foreign investors' exposure by using dollar stablecoins backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries to attract foreign capital [12]. Group 4: Increasing Domestic Absorption - The U.S. private sector has a strong balance sheet and high cash holdings, indicating potential to absorb sovereign credit risk [13]. - Policy measures may include regulatory exemptions, tax incentives, and the issuance of special bonds to encourage domestic purchases of long-term Treasuries [13]. - If incentives are insufficient, mandatory purchases of long-term Treasuries may be implemented, such as pushing retirement plans to absorb more government debt [13]. Group 5: Market Implications - The "Pennsylvania Plan" may not fundamentally resolve the twin deficit issue but could provide the U.S. government with more time by mobilizing domestic savings [14][18]. - The strategy may lead to higher Treasury yields and erosion of Federal Reserve independence, as domestic savings are pushed towards long-term fixed-income assets [15][16]. - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [17].

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank suggests that the Trump administration can alleviate its "unsustainable" fiscal situation by encouraging more domestic investors to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, which may lead to lower bond prices and a weaker dollar [1] - The proposed "Pennsylvania Plan" aims to reduce reliance on international buyers of U.S. bonds by incentivizing domestic investment, such as making it easier for banks to buy bonds or establishing tax exemptions [1] - The report indicates that while these measures may not significantly reduce the funding gap, they could diminish the influence of foreign debt holders on U.S. policy and mitigate the risk of large-scale sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that investors should disregard the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," advocating for the U.S. government to seek more funding from domestic investors due to a lack of willingness to improve fiscal conditions [2] - The report predicts a "historic" shift that will pressure the dollar and increase term premiums, while the Federal Reserve may be more motivated to maintain low interest rates to manage fiscal pressures [2] - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not be an economically unfavorable outcome [2] Group 3 - The extent to which foreign investors are avoiding U.S. assets remains unclear, although recent data from the U.S. Treasury indicates strong demand for 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions, with foreign purchases near average levels [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Deutsche Bank's "Pennsylvania Plan" aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reducing reliance on foreign capital and utilizing domestic resources to finance the deficit [1][2][7] - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficit and trade deficit, which severely limits its sovereignty due to a negative net foreign asset position [2][3] - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposes a historic shift in U.S. debt holders from foreign to domestic investors, focusing on two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of U.S. debt [3][4] Group 2 - The first strategy involves decreasing reliance on foreign buyers, as demand for U.S. debt from foreign investors is declining due to geopolitical and economic factors [4][5] - The second strategy aims to enhance domestic absorption of U.S. debt by leveraging the strong balance sheets and cash reserves of the private sector, including regulatory exemptions and tax incentives [5][6] - If incentives do not sufficiently increase domestic absorption, mandatory measures may be implemented to require more long-term U.S. debt purchases from domestic entities [6] Group 3 - The market impact of the "Pennsylvania Plan" includes potential erosion of Federal Reserve independence and a weakening of the U.S. dollar, as the government seeks to mobilize domestic savings to buy more debt [7] - The strategy may lead to higher U.S. debt yields and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a steep yield curve, which could pose financial stability risks [7] - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [7]

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 在我们跟踪的三个主要的外汇交易策略中，价值策略取代套息策略，成为了今年迄今为止最好的外汇交易策略。而套息策略继去年第三季度之后，在今年 4月份再度遭遇关税的外生冲击，该策略虽然仍为正收益，但高波动令其性价比在2025年显著回落。套息头寸较大的亚洲货币则在5月份继续面临平仓压 力。趋势策略则成为了三大策略中唯一亏损的策略。美元指数虽然从高位下跌了10%，但做空美元的负carry以及汇率短期波动的不确定性让"追涨杀跌"成 为了收益性相对较差的策略。 2025年迄今为止，全球外汇市场围绕着美国政府政策的各种不确定性展开交易。在1月特朗普正式上任后，美元指数在多重利空的影响下下跌了超过 10%。一季度美元的弱势源自于某些政策支票并未兑现所带来的特朗普交易退坡，而从二季度开始，多重利空继续推动美元破位下行。4月2日之后，我们 认为美元的下跌主要源自3方面的交易：一是关税对美国经济的不确定性的影响。与2018年的中美关税摩擦不同，美元指数与关税不确定性在今年4月之后 呈现反向的相关关系。而欧元、日元、瑞郎是规避关税风险的三个主要的避险货币，相对美元走势强劲。二是对"海湖庄园 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 定价锚回归，及锋而试的顺风期 ——2025年下半年债市展望 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 张杰 A0230524050002 徐亚 A0230524060002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 张晋源 A0230525040001 研究支持： 王哲一 A0230123100001 2025.06.09 主要内容 ◼ 引言：与2024年的单边牛市不同，2025年债券已经进入"低利率+利利差+高波动"的状态。告别单边牛市思维，展望下半年，债 券市场可能出现2个特征：1）定价锚回归：从政策利率看资金，资金定价债券；2）6-8月份可能是个不错的及锋而试的顺风期。 ◼ 2025年债券市场运行新特征：1）央行政策利率成为资金市场底部，宏观审慎管理下资金利率曾一度呈现加息效果。2）短债表现较 弱、受资金影响较大，长债波动放大把握难度较高。3）基本面整体平稳，但关税脉冲影响较大，股债市场受短期风险偏好影响较大。 ◼ 外需预期有反复，但债市主要定价内需而非外需。 ✓ 特里芬难题的核心在于，美元信用全球性和贸易逆差长期并存。关税只是表象，更为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is primarily a result of market trading and uncertainty, leading investors to reduce their overweight positions in US assets [1][3] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Reactions - The dollar index has fallen below 100, with Asian currencies appreciating significantly [1] - The so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" has been cited as a catalyst for the weak dollar, suggesting that the dollar has been overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency [1][3] - UBS's chief economist, Arend Kapteyn, emphasizes that the dollar's weakness is not a deliberate policy but a byproduct of market uncertainty [3] Group 2: US Debt Concerns - Concerns regarding US debt remain, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields nearing 4.5% and 5% respectively [4] - The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to high government financing needs and market worries about increasing debt supply [4][5] - Despite rising yields, foreign investors have not reduced their holdings, while local investors are decreasing their positions [5] Group 3: Tax Policy and Fiscal Impact - The new tax policy proposed by Trump is not expected to significantly increase the fiscal deficit, as it is characterized as a "illusionary expansion" rather than a true tax cut [8] - The tax plan aims to extend personal tax cuts and increase standard deductions, while also including significant spending cuts [8] - The plan is projected to reduce taxes by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, but it also includes substantial cuts to programs like Medicaid [8] Group 4: Trade Negotiation Challenges - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU are critical, with both sides facing significant misalignment in their demands [9] - The US aims to increase tariff revenues, which reached a record high in April, while the EU seeks to lower tariffs to zero [9][10] - The potential for increased tariffs could lead to higher inflation, with estimates suggesting core PCE inflation could rise to 3.5% under current tariff structures [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government maintains a "strong dollar" policy, dismissing speculations about a shift towards a "weak dollar" or secret currency agreements [1][9][10]. Group 1: Strong Dollar Policy - Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, confirmed the commitment to a "strong dollar" policy, refuting any claims of secret currency agreements during trade negotiations [1][3][4]. - Following Miran's statements, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 100.1216 before slightly retreating [2]. - Miran emphasized that the strong dollar is not just about exchange rates but also concerns the stability of the dollar system and its structural advantages as the global reserve currency [10]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Strategy - Miran addressed concerns regarding tariffs, economic deficits, and potential recession, stating that the recent market volatility is expected during policy adjustments [11][13]. - He noted that while companies might delay investments or hiring, this does not indicate an impending recession, but rather a temporary shift in timing [14]. - The administration is engaged in trade negotiations with over 20 countries, expecting to finalize multiple agreements in the coming months, which could significantly boost U.S. exports and help reduce the trade deficit [15]. Group 3: Fiscal Deficit and Tax Policy - Miran criticized the Biden administration for leaving behind a challenging fiscal situation while defending the current fiscal strategy [16][17]. - He argued that fiscal deficits should occur during genuine crises, not during stable economic periods, and that assessments of deficits should consider various factors beyond static evaluations [18]. - Despite market challenges, Miran expressed confidence in the administration's core economic strategy, which focuses on tax reform, deregulation, and energy independence [19][20].

斯蒂芬•米兰认为美元储备地位、美元高估和贸易逆差面临取舍，高估的美元让制造业 竞争力下降，但也维系"美元霸权"。如何改革逆差过大和制造业衰落？ 文丨陈稻田 特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬•米兰（Stephen Miran）在经济学博士毕业后立刻进入 华尔街做外汇交易，在今年2月份参议院的任职听证会上，他表示这段市场考验让他不再"书 生气"，而是开始"接地气"。在解释为什么他可以胜任总统经济顾问一职时，米兰表示他的普 通家庭背景让他会更关注普通人；而导师费尔德斯坦（曾经是里根的经济顾问）和米兰讨论 论文的时候总是要求说："假想我是参议员，你说的东西要让我能听懂"，米兰表示这个训练 也让他做好了和职业政治家交流的准备。2024年11月大选之前不久，还在一家投资基金担任 策略师的米兰写下了一篇策论文章，讨论特朗普胜选后可能以及应该的各种经济策略、取 舍、以及风险考量，其中详细讨论了名为"海湖庄园协议"的新国际金融体系。很自然，在他 获得重用后"海湖庄园协议"在美国内外都获得了相当的关注。 阅读更多内容请点击下方"阅读原文" （本文由FT中文网提供） 编者荐语： 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家 ...

以下文章来源于大势看财经 ，作者张一 大势看财经 . 《财经》杂志宏观学术部团队以独立、独家、独到的信念为读者提供原创的宏观政策解读、部委政策动 向、经济趋势前瞻以及名家前沿观察 美国有意无意推动美元贬值的行为对国际金融体系的影响有可能在未来进一步显现，金融市场的巨幅 波动不可避免。 张一 恒泰证券 研究所所长、 首席经济学家 自特朗普再度入主白宫后，其团队推出了一项被称之为"海湖庄园协议"（Mar-a-Lago Accord） 的经济战略构想。该战略构想来自特朗普政府经济顾问委员会（CEA）主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）于2024年11月撰写的一份题为《重构全球贸易体系使用指南》（A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System）的报告（《米兰报告》）。从特朗普百日施政的结 果看，基于该报告的"海湖庄园协议"构想已经对全球金融、贸易、产业乃至政治格局产生影响。从 趋势看，未来相当长一段时间而不是特朗普执政这四年，相关战略思想都会持续对国际政治经济格局 产生影响。 图表1 美元储备和美元指数对比 该报告主要涵盖三方面内容，一是美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of a meeting between South Korean and U.S. officials regarding the exchange rate of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar, suggesting potential shifts in currency policy that could lead to a weaker dollar and stronger won [1][2][6]. Group 1: Meeting Details - South Korean Deputy Finance Minister Choi Ji-young met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Robert Kaproth on May 5 during the 58th Asian Development Bank annual meeting in Milan to discuss the dollar-won market [1]. - The meeting has sparked market speculation that the Trump administration may prioritize currency issues in upcoming trade negotiations [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news of the meeting, the U.S. dollar fell, with the dollar-won exchange rate dropping 1.92% to 1396.77, marking a one-week low [3]. - The Korean won has appreciated approximately 5% against the dollar this year amid a generally weak dollar environment [3]. Group 3: Currency Strategy Insights - Analysts suggest that the discussions between the U.S. and South Korea may indicate a shift in focus from trade to currency, potentially threatening the dollar's stability [7]. - There are concerns that the Trump administration may implement policies encouraging countries to sell dollars to address perceived economic imbalances caused by strong currencies [7][8]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The meeting reinforces previous comments by the Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong, who indicated that the rise of Asian currencies, including the won, is partly due to U.S. pressure for currency appreciation [8]. - Analysts believe that the discussions could act as a catalyst for further dollar selling, as they may lead to speculation about the inclusion of currency policy in bilateral trade negotiations [7].