Group 1 - The average price of coke in Shanxi region is 1300 CNY/ton, showing a weak performance compared to the same period last week [1] - On June 20, some enterprises in Xinjiang reduced their coke ex-factory prices by 50 CNY/ton [1] - The mainstream dry coke price in Heze market remains stable at 890 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - As of June 23, the main futures contract for coke closed at 1385.0 CNY/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [2] - The highest price reached 1394.0 CNY/ton and the lowest was 1370.0 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 21,314 lots [2] Group 3 - On June 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 90 coke futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Qinhuangdao coal inventory recorded 5.78 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Recent reports indicate that coke profits are continuously shrinking, leading to a decline in independent coke enterprises' output and a reduction in overall supply [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-23） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近日环保安监趋严，煤矿开工产量小幅下降，但仍处于偏高水平。然下游需求依旧显露疲 态，市场观望情绪依旧存在，用煤企业采购体量较小，煤矿出货压力增加，部分矿点报价继续下调。加 之焦炭价格继续走弱背景下，炼焦煤价格支撑较弱；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差145；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂对焦炭采购价格提出第四轮降价，市场情绪不断走低，加之成材消费淡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping over 3%, indicating a bearish outlook for the market in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 8, coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 1465.5 yuan, with the main contract closing at 1466.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 3.04% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains neutral to bearish, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals post-holiday [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures predicts that both coking coal and coke will continue to exhibit weakness, citing limited impact from recent financial policies and a lack of substantial positive news from the real estate sector [2]. - Dayue Futures suggests that the likelihood of further declines in coking coal prices is high due to a continued loose supply environment and weak downstream demand, particularly as steel mills face pressure from high inventory levels [3]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights the importance of monitoring the price range of 1350-1400 yuan, indicating that the failure of the second round of price increases and seasonal demand peaks may lead to a downward adjustment in prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the coking coal futures market is experiencing weakness, with the main contract trading at 1531.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.08% [1] - As of April 16, the price of dry quenching coke in Tangshan, Hebei, has increased by 55 CNY/ton, reaching a range of 1595-1630 CNY/ton [2] - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises has risen to 73.51%, with an average daily output of 524,500 tons, marking a three-month high [2] Group 2 - The overall inventory of coking coal remains high, with a slight decrease in independent coking enterprises' inventory, while steel mills' coking coal inventory has decreased by 0.54% to 6.644 million tons [2] - The increase in domestic coking coal prices has made imported coking coal more cost-effective, leading to a significant rise in port inventories, which increased by 163,300 tons to 2.9363 million tons [2] - Institutions suggest that the coking coal price is likely to remain weak in the short term due to various macroeconomic disturbances and reduced trade purchasing enthusiasm [3]