12月10日，深圳福田区梅林街道B405-0308宗地完成竞拍，成交楼面价42695元/㎡，溢价率65%。根据 深圳市国有建设用地使用权出让公告，该宗地内的商品住房需全部实行现房销售，是近年来深圳第二宗 要求全部现房销售的宅地。 推进现房销售制度是改革完善房地产开发、融资、销售制度过程中的重点工作之一。近年来，多地从政 策端及土地出让端发力，推动现房销售制度落地。 展望未来，现房销售或将得到进一步推进。中指研究院有关负责人认为，"十五五"时期，现房销售或将 逐渐推进，预计更多库存量大的城市或区域将率先推进现房销售，对于部分库存量较小的地区来说，现 房销售后新增供应将减少，或影响市场供需平衡，这些地方更需要地方政府进行精准把控推进节奏和力 度，同时加快完善适用于现房销售模式的房地产融资制度等，推动期房销售逐渐向现房销售转型。 就未来各地应如何推进现房销售落地，李宇嘉建议，在土地端，各地要提高土地供应效率，特别是推行 净地出让，市政管网、教育配套等要到位，并优化、精简规划报建、交付验收等流程，让开发商实现拿 地即开工；在融资端，鼓励金融机构对现房销售制下交付更有保障、烂尾风险下降的项目降低融资利 率。 据中指研究 ...

可以预见，2026年的中国房地产市场，将在多方协同作用下，呈现出稳健向好的发展态势。这一趋势的 形成，离不开2025年关键之年的政策铺垫与市场信号的逐步明朗。 在信贷政策方面，央行与金融监管部门持续发力，2025年首套住房商业性个人住房贷款利率普遍降至 3.5%区间，部分城市还针对刚需购房者额外下浮20个基点。公积金贷款利率也同步下调0.25个百分点， 上海、杭州等城市的首套房公积金利率甚至降至2.6%的历史低位。地方层面，贵阳贵安明确2026年前 首套、二套住房商业贷款的最低首付比例统一为15%；武汉则将双缴存人家庭公积金贷款最高额度提升 至150万元，并对多孩家庭购房提供额外的贷款上浮优惠。在财政补贴方面，三四线城市积极探索"以旧 换新"模式，部分城市甚至提供高达房价20%的财政补贴。例如，武汉对三孩家庭购房补贴高达12万 元，雅安市则将补贴范围扩大至快递小哥、外卖骑手等14类新就业群体。 在购房门槛优化方面，多地调整了住房套数的认定标准。贵阳市明确，居民家庭在拟购房区域名下无成 套住房的，无论贷款是否结清均按首套执行，且已挂牌出售的住房不计入家庭套数；武汉市则规定， 2025年10月至2026年6月期间 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data for October showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added - value slowed down due to weak external demand, production structure adjustment, and fewer working days. The new policy - based financial instruments could not fully offset the impact of the real - estate downturn, and the power of demand recovery was insufficient. The export data in October was lower than expected, with exports to the US falling while non - US exports maintained resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large, and the policy may focus more on the connection with next year, with little need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and subsequent inflation and employment data will be observed for their indication of a December interest - rate cut [10]. - In terms of liquidity, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47%. - Regarding interest rates, the latest 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.84%, up 2.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield closed at 2.18%, up 2.45 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, down 4.00 BP week - on - week. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Although short - term credit events and the expectation of new regulations on fund fees have triggered some redemptions in the bond market, the overall risk is controllable. The market is currently in a situation of long - short entanglement with weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Analysis**: In October, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added - value decreased. The new policy - based financial instruments could not fully offset the real - estate downturn. The export to the US declined, while non - US exports were resilient. The policy may focus on the connection with next year. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and the December interest - rate cut will depend on inflation and employment data. The profit of industrial enterprises from January to October was 5.95029 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The "Two - Major" construction has received support from special Treasury bonds. Japan may adjust its interest - rate policy, and the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan in MLF operations. Japan revised its bond issuance plan, and many places are studying real - estate spot - sale support policies [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.84%, up 2.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.18%, up 2.45 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, down 4.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - **Summary and Strategy**: The economic data in October showed weak supply and demand. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond - market supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter. The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by the logic of loose monetary policy and difficult credit improvement [13][15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [18][22][25][28]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy**: - GDP: The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations [40]. - PMI: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service - industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point. The manufacturing PMI sub - items showed that both supply and demand were under pressure [40][41]. - Price Index: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. The month - on - month data also showed certain changes [49]. - Export: In October, exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 10.9% year - on - year [52]. - Industrial Added Value: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month [55]. - Social Consumption: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Excluding automobiles, the consumption growth rate improved [55]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, and the real - estate investment growth rate was - 14.7%. The second - hand housing price decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [58]. - Real - Estate Data: In October, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the completion - end data widened, and the new - housing sales in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [61][64]. - **Foreign Economy**: - US Economy: The second - quarter US GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI showed certain changes. In August, the order of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the non - farm employment population increased by 22,000. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4 [67][70][73]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [73]. - Eurozone Economy: In October, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In November, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the service - industry PMI was 53.1 [76]. 3.4. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: In October, the M1 growth rate was 6.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.2%. The M1 - M2 gap widened [81]. - **Social Financing**: In October, the social financing increment was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 220 trillion yuan. The government bond growth rate slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the resident and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the government bond growth rate was 19.20% [81][84]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In October, the MLF balance was 605 billion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [87]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The report provides the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury - bond yields, and US Treasury - bond yields [90]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the exchange - rate data of the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index [99].

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high during the session, while the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech 50 indices fell over 1% [2] - The overall market saw slightly more gainers than losers, with stable trading volume [2] Health Industry Growth - The health industry showed strong performance, with the pharmaceutical commercial sector index rising for the sixth consecutive day, reaching a new high for the year, and half-day trading volume exceeding the previous day's total [2] - Specific stocks like Shangyu Pingmin and Renmin Tongtai hit the daily limit, with Shangyu Pingmin rising 20% shortly after market open [2][4] - The demand for the health industry is rapidly increasing due to an aging population, supported by government policies aimed at promoting the health sector [4][5] Real Estate Sector Developments - Real estate stocks collectively rose, with significant gains in companies like Huaxia Xingfu and Yingxin Development, both hitting their daily limits [5][6] - Recent policies promoting the sale of existing homes are accelerating, with cities implementing measures to transition from pre-sale to existing home sales [9][10] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the importance of existing home sales to mitigate delivery risks and protect buyers' rights [8][9] Future Projections - The health industry is projected to reach a market size of 17.4 trillion yuan by 2025 and 29.1 trillion yuan by 2030 [5] - The real estate sector is expected to see a gradual shift towards existing home sales, particularly in areas with high inventory [10]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high during the session, while the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and STAR Market indices fell over 1% [1] - The overall market saw slightly more gainers than losers, with stable trading volume [1] Health Industry - The health industry showed strong demand growth, with the pharmaceutical commercial sector index rising for the sixth consecutive day, reaching a new high for the year [3] - Notable stocks included Shuyou Pingmin, which hit a 20% limit up shortly after opening, and Renmin Tongtai, which also reached its limit up for the fifth consecutive day [3] - The health sector is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting the industry will reach CNY 17.4 trillion by 2025 and CNY 29.1 trillion by 2030 [6] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks collectively rose, with significant gains in companies like Huaxia Xingfu and Yingxin Development, both hitting their limit up [7][8] - Recent policies promoting the sale of completed properties are accelerating, with cities like Pingjiang and Zhangye implementing measures to transition from pre-sale to completed property sales [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, with expectations that quality developers will benefit from the evolving market dynamics [11]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the current housing sales system marks a significant transformation in China's real estate market, shifting from a "fast turnover" model to a focus on "quality development," addressing long-standing issues such as unfinished buildings and enhancing buyer protections [1][9][10]. Policy Implementation - Various regions, including Henan, Hubei, and Hunan, are adopting the current housing sales model, with Henan's Xinyang mandating that all new land sales must follow this model starting July 2025 [2][4]. - Hubei's Jingmen and Hunan's Pingjiang are also moving towards current housing sales, with specific timelines and conditions for implementation [2][4]. - The policy is characterized by a strong commitment to comprehensive execution, aiming to cover all new land projects in central urban areas [2]. Background and Rationale - The pre-sale system, introduced in the 1990s, has been pivotal for rapid industry growth but has led to significant risks, including delivery failures and quality disputes [9][10]. - The shift to current housing sales is a response to these risks, aiming to restore market confidence and protect consumer rights [9][10]. Market Dynamics - Over 30 cities have initiated trials or supportive policies for current housing sales since late 2022, indicating a broadening acceptance of this model [4][11]. - The current housing sales model is expected to stabilize the market by controlling new supply and accelerating inventory turnover, particularly in areas with high inventory levels [15][16]. Impact on Stakeholders - For buyers, the current housing sales model enhances transparency and reduces risks associated with unfinished projects, allowing them to inspect properties before purchase [13][14]. - For real estate companies, the transition presents challenges, as they must finance construction upfront, potentially increasing financial strain, but it also offers opportunities to improve product quality and brand reputation [14][15]. - The industry is moving towards a model that prioritizes quality, service, and operational excellence, moving away from high-leverage and high-turnover practices [15][16]. Future Outlook - The gradual implementation of the current housing sales system is expected to lead to a more regulated and transparent real estate market, ultimately benefiting consumers and promoting sustainable industry growth [17][18]. - The government is committed to supporting this transition with policies that facilitate financing and provide incentives for quality improvements [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the importance of enhancing people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity in the real estate sector, indicating a shift back to the residential property nature of housing [2] Group 1: High-Quality Development - High-quality development in real estate requires foundational institutional reforms, including the establishment of independent legal entities for project development, ensuring that projects operate independently and are accountable for land acquisition, development, and delivery [2] - The introduction of a lead bank system is proposed, where a designated bank or syndicate oversees project financing and ensures that funds are used appropriately, thus aligning incentives for financial institutions and project developers [2] Group 2: Current Housing Sales and Supply System - The government is actively promoting a current housing sales system, with projections indicating that by 2024, 30.8% of national housing sales will be current sales, which fundamentally mitigates delivery risks [3] - There is a growing demand for various forms of housing security, particularly among new citizens, young people, and migrants, due to changes in income and employment, necessitating an expansion of housing security programs [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Housing Quality - The "Suggestions" advocate for a city-specific approach to increasing the supply of improved housing, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies based on local supply and demand dynamics [4] - The focus on constructing "good houses" is highlighted, with new standards established for safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, aiming to enhance the quality of housing supply [4] Group 4: Lifecycle Management and Community Services - The emphasis on improving the quality of property management and maintenance is crucial, with initiatives proposed for enhancing housing quality and establishing a comprehensive lifecycle safety management system [5] - The lifecycle management system includes housing inspections, insurance mechanisms, and maintenance funds to ensure long-term safety and functionality of properties [5] Group 5: Economic Integration and Demand-Supply Dynamics - The transition to high-quality development in the real estate sector is seen as a means to support domestic demand strategies, integrating housing as a key component of infrastructure investment [6] - The approach aims to create a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment, enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of domestic economic circulation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee emphasize the importance of improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity in the real estate sector, indicating a shift back to the residential nature of housing as a major consumer good and a necessity for people's lives [2] Group 1: High-Quality Development in Real Estate - The primary focus for high-quality development in real estate is the establishment of foundational institutional frameworks, including independent project development entities and a lead bank system to ensure accountability and financial oversight [2] - The government is actively promoting the current housing sales system, with a projected 30.8% of national housing sales area being current sales by 2024, which fundamentally mitigates delivery risks [3] - A "market + guarantee" supply system is being constructed to address the needs of new citizens, young people, and migrants, who are the main consumers of housing, while also considering their changing income and employment situations [3] Group 2: Quality Standards and Housing Supply - The construction of "good houses" is a key focus, with the implementation of the "Residential Project Standards" that define safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence as essential quality indicators [4] - In the context of a stock market era, the emphasis is on improving operational maintenance quality, including the implementation of housing quality enhancement projects and property service quality improvement actions [5] - A comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is proposed, which includes housing inspections, insurance, and maintenance funds to ensure long-term safety and functionality [5] Group 3: Strategic Shift in Real Estate - The transition to high-quality development in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has laid a foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on risk prevention and moving away from old models [6] - The real estate sector is expected to play a crucial role in expanding domestic demand, serving as a link in the investment strategy that combines investment in physical assets and human capital [6] - The new supply will be driven by new demands, fostering a positive interaction between consumption and investment, as well as supply and demand, thereby enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of the domestic economy [6]

Core Insights - The article illustrates the dramatic fall of Chen Tao, once a wealthy real estate investor, who lost his fortune due to the changing dynamics of the housing market [1][5][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The real estate market has shifted from being viewed as a quick path to wealth to a focus on housing as a basic need, emphasizing its role in ensuring people's living conditions [5][6][8] - The average housing area per urban resident has surpassed 40 square meters, indicating a saturation in housing demand, with a significant inventory of nearly 760 million square meters of unsold properties as of September 2025 [5][6] Group 2: Investment and Development Trends - The focus of real estate development is transitioning from quantity to quality, with an increasing emphasis on the safety, comfort, and sustainability of housing [6][7] - The introduction of policies promoting "good housing" reflects a shift towards enhancing property quality and service, moving away from the previous model of selling based on plans [6][7] Group 3: Policy Impact - Despite various government measures aimed at stimulating the housing market, such as easing purchase restrictions, the actual market response has been lackluster, with a 10% month-on-month increase in residential sales area but a 7% year-on-year decline as of September 2025 [7][8] - The perception of housing as an investment vehicle is diminishing, with a clear indication that the primary function of housing will revert to providing shelter rather than serving as a financial asset [7][8] Group 4: Rental Market Trends - Rental prices have been on a downward trend, with an average rent of 34.04 yuan per square meter per month across 40 cities, reflecting a 0.22% month-on-month and a 2.42% year-on-year decline [8] - The rental yield in core cities has dropped below 2%, making it increasingly difficult for property owners to recoup their investment costs through rental income [8]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing significant price declines, with a notable case in Guangzhou where a property sold for 50,284 yuan per square meter, down from a previous high of 120,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a drastic price drop of over 58% [2][4][6] - The phenomenon of "urgent sales" is impacting the price stability in core urban areas, with similar trends observed in Shanghai and Beijing, where properties that were once highly valued are now being sold at steep discounts [7][8] - The current market downturn is attributed to three main challenges: loss of buyer confidence, oversupply of housing, and financial pressure on homeowners, leading to a cycle of declining prices and increased urgency to sell [8][9] Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in property prices is not limited to suburban areas but is now affecting prime locations, indicating a shift in the real estate landscape [7] - Data shows that since September, the rate of price decline in first and second-tier cities has accelerated, with weekly adjustments becoming the norm rather than monthly fluctuations [7][8] Underlying Challenges - Buyer confidence is at a low, with many potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, fearing further price drops, which exacerbates the downward pressure on prices [8] - The oversupply of housing is becoming increasingly problematic, with existing inventory exceeding actual demand, leading to a fundamental imbalance in the market [8] - Homeowners are facing financial strain due to economic pressures, prompting many to sell at a loss as a means of financial relief [9] Policy Direction - The government is actively seeking solutions to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the need for a scientific allocation of resources related to people, housing, land, and finance [10][11] - Future housing development will focus on population needs, with land supply and financial resources being aligned with actual housing demand to avoid waste [11][12] Recommendations for Stakeholders - For first-time homebuyers, it is suggested to proceed with purchases if there is a genuine need and financial capability, as the market is shifting towards valuing quality over speculative gains [12][13] - Investors are advised to abandon the notion of guaranteed profits from real estate, as the market is returning to its fundamental purpose of providing housing [12][13] - Sellers should avoid high pricing strategies and instead set realistic prices to attract buyers, as the market dynamics have changed significantly [13]