Q&A 今年双十一的活动周期和核心销售时间节点有哪些变化？ 今年的双十一活动周期创下历史最长，抖音从 9 月中旬开始，持续约 57 天； 天猫预计从 10 月 9 日正式开始。整个周期分为五个阶段：预热期（9 月下旬至 10 月 19 日），主要进行领券和品牌预热种草；预售阶段（10 月 20 日至 30 日），美妆板块预计完成 45%左右的销售额；首轮爆发期（10 月 31 日至 11 月 10 日），各平台提供全品类优惠券和补贴；核心成交期（11 月 10 日至 11 日），预计占总成交额的 20%~30%；返场阶段可能延续 1~3 天。今年双十 一整体周期长达近 60 天。 今年双十一期间，各大平台对美妆品类的销售目标是什么？ 淘宝天猫平台内部预计 GMV 增长在 15%~20%左右，美妆品类希望达到 20%的增长。抖音全品类目标增长约 30%，美妆品类目标增长 35%~40%。 专家视角解读&双十一行情投资思路梳理 20250923 摘要 2025 年双十一周期长达近 60 天，淘宝天猫平台预计 GMV 增长 15%- 20%，美妆品类目标增长 20%；抖音全品类目标增长约 30%，美妆品 类目标增长 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs highlights Shopee's promotional activities during the 7.7 sales period and recent changes in merchant fees, emphasizing the importance of tracking Shopee in Brazil as a key discussion point among buyers [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Sea with a target price of $186, noting that Shopee's shipping discounts in Indonesia have increased while product discounts remain stable [1] - Price sampling indicates that Shopee's overall subsidy levels are consistent compared to June, with Shopee maintaining a price competitiveness of approximately 6% lower than TikTok for consumers [1] Group 2 - In Brazil, most products on Shopee are priced lower than those on MELI, particularly for generic unbranded items, with a minimum purchase coupon of 10 reais existing since Q1 2025 [1] - Shopee is increasing promotional efforts in Malaysia while reducing them in Thailand and Vietnam, where competition with TikTok is historically intense [2] - Starting July 20, Shopee will introduce a fixed processing fee of 1,250 Indonesian rupiah (approximately $0.08) per order in Indonesia, indicating a broader industry trend towards enhancing profitability [2]

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has intensified competition among e-commerce platforms, particularly for Apple products, making it an ideal time for consumers to purchase iPhones [1] - JD.com has emerged as the most cost-effective option for consumers, leveraging nationwide consumption vouchers to enhance its pricing strategy [3][8] Pricing Strategies - The iPhone 16 Pro Max (256GB) originally priced at ¥9999 is available for ¥7999 on both Meituan and Tmall, with various discounts applied [1] - JD.com offers an additional discount of ¥1400 and allows the use of a 200 yuan consumption voucher, bringing the price down to ¥7799, which is lower than the competitors [3] Promotions and Discounts - JD.com has introduced a unique nationwide consumption voucher program, with values ranging from ¥100 to ¥500, which can be applied to the purchase of the iPhone 16 Pro Max, resulting in a final price of ¥7799 or even lower [3][8] - The Apple Watch Series 10 is also competitively priced, with JD.com offering a final price of ¥1996.65 after applying the national subsidy, while Tmall does not provide this subsidy for users in Beijing [6] Consumer Benefits - The combination of JD.com's exclusive vouchers and broader national subsidy policies provides significant savings for consumers, making it a preferred platform for purchasing Apple products during the 618 festival [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant discounts and promotional activities during the final 28 hours of the 2025 JD 618 shopping festival, emphasizing the largest subsidy offerings and price reductions for consumers [1][4]. Subsidy and Discounts - Consumers can receive subsidies exceeding 6180 yuan per person per day, with various categories including electronics, home appliances, and more, allowing discounts as low as 40% [4][5]. - JD is providing a total value of over 3000 yuan in super subsidy coupon packages for PLUS members, which can be combined with national subsidies and other coupons for additional savings [4][5]. Promotional Activities - The JD 618 event features multiple promotional channels, including "1 yuan flash sales" and "true 50% off" deals, with products available at discounts as steep as 20% [4][5]. - The "JD Super Takeout Day" on June 18 will continue to offer substantial discounts, with reductions up to 61.8 yuan [4]. Entertainment and Engagement - The "JD 618 Happy Night" event, co-hosted with Hunan TV and Mango TV, features numerous celebrities and interactive games, allowing consumers to win prizes and engage with the brand [6][7]. - During the event, consumers can participate in a "shake to win" game on the JD app for a chance to win up to 2025 yuan in red envelopes and various physical prizes [7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has been declining, leading to a corresponding drop in the stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), which is approaching the 1400 yuan mark [1][2]. Price Movement - As of June 16, Kweichow Moutai's stock price reached a low of 1401.18 yuan per share, marking a significant drop from over 1600 yuan just a month prior, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 250 billion yuan [1][2]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by over 100 yuan within the month, with the retail price for a 500ml bottle dropping from 2170 yuan to 1960 yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.71% [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to the seasonal drop in liquor consumption post-Spring Festival, which typically affects premium liquor prices [10]. - E-commerce promotions, particularly around the "6·18" mid-year sales, have further pressured the prices of Feitian Moutai, as aggressive discounting strategies impact the market [10]. Consumer Behavior - Changes in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of younger consumers, are influencing the demand for high-end liquor, leading to a natural price correction for Moutai [11]. Dealer Strategies - Moutai distributors are actively seeking to stabilize prices through measures such as limiting supply to certain channels and increasing market surveillance to enforce compliance [8]. Analyst Outlook - Despite the recent price declines, analysts remain optimistic about Kweichow Moutai, with multiple brokerages maintaining "buy" or "strong buy" ratings and setting target prices significantly above the current market price, indicating potential upside [12][13].

随着飞天茅台价格的走低，贵州茅台（600519.SH）的股价也随之调整，即将跌破1400元的关口。 6月16日，贵州茅台低开，盘中最低报1401.18元/股，上次触及该价还是今年的2月6日，当时最低价为 1400.01元。 对于酒价的持续的下跌，茅台酒的经销商也在想方设法稳价。 据智通财经，多位渠道人士表示，近日茅台部分省区经销商联谊会就茅台酒"稳市稳价"事项进行沟通， 并达成一致意见，主要内容包括：限制向电商、批发市场、省外等部分渠道供货；经销商联谊会将加大 市场巡查，对于违反相关规定的，将视情况给予包括停货、上报乃至取消合同的处理。 茅台酒价为何下跌？ 据北京商报报道，白酒从业者指出，过了春节假期后便进入白酒消费淡季，在这期间，名优白酒也会出 现价格下降的情况。对于贵州茅台而言，其金融价值、投资价值支撑使其淡季价格不会下跌那么多，但 当下伴随着稳价等手段，使得飞天茅台在淡季也出现批发价较大回落的情况。 值得一提的是，1个月前贵州茅台的股价超1600元，如今跌幅已超10%，蒸发的市值则超2500亿元。 茅台酒价格月内跌百元 据酒业数据平台今日酒价的报价，5月16日，25年飞天茅台（53度/500ml，下同） ...

Core Insights - JD.com is actively promoting its home goods section during the 618 shopping festival, offering significant discounts and a variety of products to meet consumer needs for summer home refreshment [1][8] - The campaign features collaborations with well-known brands, providing consumers with high-quality home essentials at competitive prices [1][2] Group 1: Promotions and Discounts - JD.com is offering discounts such as 50% off on home textiles and an additional 15% off on daily necessities through national subsidies [1] - Specific products highlighted include the J.Dear summer quilt priced at 185 yuan after discount, and the dual-sided cooling quilt from 富安娜 at 179 yuan [1][2] - Other promotional items include a 55-liter storage box from 禧天龙 available for 69 yuan and various home decor items at reduced prices [4][5] Group 2: Product Offerings - The summer product lineup includes high-quality cooling quilts, bedding sets, and various home decor items designed to enhance comfort during hot weather [1][2][4] - Featured products also include a multi-functional mobile storage rack from 网易严选, originally priced at 389 yuan, now available for 194 yuan [5] - Cultural and creative products are also highlighted, such as the 千里江山小夜灯, which combines practicality with cultural significance, priced at 136 yuan after discounts [6] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - Consumers are encouraged to explore the home goods section via the JD.com app, emphasizing the ease of finding quality products at attractive prices [8] - The marketing strategy focuses on creating a comfortable and aesthetically pleasing home environment, appealing to consumer desires for a refreshing summer experience [1][4]

Core Insights - The recent end of the national college entrance examination (Gaokao) has led to a surge in consumer spending on electronics, particularly mobile phones, computers, and tablets [1][3] - During the Tmall 618 shopping festival, major brands such as Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi, and others offered exclusive discounts targeting high school graduates and current university students [1][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - Sales of laptops increased by 200% year-on-year, while digital camera sales rose by 190% following the Gaokao [3] - Popular products among students included Lenovo's Legion series, ASUS's TUF Gaming A15, Honor's X14 laptop, and Huawei's nova 14 smartphone [3] Group 2: Promotional Strategies - Tmall's 618 event featured a simplified discount structure, offering a flat 15% off without the need for minimum purchase requirements, allowing customers to receive an 85% discount on single items [3] - Additional discounts included up to 20% in national subsidies, various category coupons, and exclusive student discounts, resulting in significant price reductions for 3C digital brands [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, nearing the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle, with a decline of over 10% compared to the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price for 53-degree Feitian Moutai reached 2020 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 2080 yuan for boxed bottles [2]. - The retail price in some Beijing stores is around 2100-2300 yuan per bottle, with indications that prices may rise slightly after mid-July due to seasonal demand [2]. - The recovery price for loose bottles has fallen below 2000 yuan, reaching 1970 yuan, marking a historical low [6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the end of the peak consumption season around the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a seasonal downturn in white liquor sales [6][7]. - E-commerce promotions, particularly during the "6·18" sales event, have further pressured prices, with some platforms offering Moutai at prices as low as 1499 yuan [7][8]. Supply Chain and Distribution - Moutai has increased the distribution of non-standard products, which has affected the demand for Feitian Moutai, contributing to the price drop [8]. - The company has implemented measures to control supply, including halting direct sales of 500ml Feitian Moutai and freezing a portion of inventory to stabilize prices [8][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai plans to adjust its product structure across various sales channels to enhance consumer reach and improve operational capabilities [9]. - The company aims to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and preferences by exploring new consumption scenarios beyond traditional gifting and dining occasions [9].

Core Insights - Nintendo's new console, Switch2, officially launched on June 5, generating significant consumer excitement and demand [1][2] - JD Global Purchase facilitated rapid delivery of the Switch2 to various cities across China, enhancing customer experience [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch and Consumer Response - The Switch2 was available for delivery at midnight on June 5, with early adopters in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou receiving their consoles promptly [1] - Over 400,000 pre-orders for the Switch2 were recorded on JD before the official launch [2] Group 2: Sales and Promotions - JD Global Purchase is currently running promotions during the 618 shopping festival, offering discounts and exclusive deals on international brands [2] - Consumers can access special pricing and benefits by searching for "switch2 global purchase" on the JD app [2]