美联储传声筒：美联储预计将暂停降息，恢复降息的路径尚不明确。 特朗普：美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。 美国中情局正在秘密开展工作，计划在委内瑞拉境内建立常设美国据点。 国投白银LOF：28日起暂停申购（含定期定额投资）业务，且1月28日开市起至当日10:30停牌。 【白银期货最新行情】 | 1月28日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 29219 | 2.92% | 1085495 | 290143 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，1月28日上海白银现货价格报价29585元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（29219元/千克）升水 366元/千克。 特朗普：不担心美元贬值，可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。 【机构观点】 美国政府停摆担忧继续升温，美元大幅下挫，中东局势紧张，银价先下后上。沪银溢价大幅扩大至4300 元/克，国内情绪再升温。上期所调整限仓，银价短期上涨受压，但银价上涨情绪依旧强劲。风险巨 大，谨慎操作。沪银2604：27500-3 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above $92.50, with a recent opening at $93.06 per ounce and a current price of $92.90, reflecting a decrease of 0.15% [1] - The highest price reached today was $93.10, while the lowest dipped to $90.79, indicating a short-term bullish trend for silver [1] - Silver bears need to break through the $90.00 level to challenge the recent low of $86.45 reached on January 15, with a potential drop towards the 20-day simple moving average at $80.63 if this support fails [2] Group 2 - For silver to continue its upward momentum, buyers must push the price above the historical high of $95.89, followed by the significant milestone of $100.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silver price has reached new highs despite rumors of a potential decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rebalancing, driven by strong investment demand and supply constraints [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Trends - As of January 16, the London silver price closed at $90.134 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 12.8%, peaking above $93 per ounce [1]. - COMEX silver futures saw a weekly increase of 13.37%, while Shanghai silver futures surged by 22.83% [1]. - The BCOM annual rebalancing period from January 8 to 14, 2026, is expected to have a short-term impact, with market participants likely to use any price dips as buying opportunities [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Investment demand for silver remains strong, with non-commercial net long positions on COMEX increasing from 30,000 contracts in late December to 32,000 contracts by January 13 [1]. - The global silver production dropped to 820 million ounces (approximately 25,800 tons) in 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020, while recycled silver supply has increased only slightly, insufficient to meet industrial demand [2]. - The ongoing supply constraints are expected to keep silver in a "bull market" due to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Factors - Experts predict that silver prices will likely remain high in Q1 2026, with potential for further increases, although volatility is expected to rise due to various market factors [3]. - The U.S. government's decision to delay imposing tariffs on key minerals, including silver, may introduce short-term price correction risks [3]. - The rising costs in industries due to increasing silver prices have prompted companies, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, to accelerate the adoption of copper alternatives, although widespread replacement is not yet feasible [3][4]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Future silver trading should focus on whether positive factors have been fully priced in, such as ongoing declines in silver inventory and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4]. - Monitoring risk control measures by exchanges is crucial, as decreased trading activity could halt the upward price momentum, leading to a "slow bull" market [4]. - Global geopolitical tensions may further accelerate silver price increases if they continue to escalate [4].

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is reported at 22,400 yuan per kilogram, with a slight increase of 0.26% from the previous day, after reaching a high of 23,665 yuan and a low of 21,600 yuan [1] - The overall trend for silver TD remains bullish despite short-term bearish signals, with support levels identified between 20,500 and 21,500 yuan, and resistance levels between 23,500 and 24,000 yuan [2] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump has indicated to his national security team the conditions under which military action against Iran would be taken, emphasizing a desire for a swift and decisive strike [2] - There are concerns among Trump's advisors regarding the potential effectiveness of military action in leading to the swift collapse of the Iranian regime, as well as the adequacy of U.S. military presence in the region to handle expected Iranian retaliation [2] - Trump has suggested that he has received assurances that Iran will cease its violent actions against protesters, indicating a possible delay in military response to the situation in Iran [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant price movements, with current trading around $90.11 per ounce, and a focus on upcoming U.S. economic data releases that may impact market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Silver Price and Market Dynamics - Current spot silver price is $90.11 per ounce, with a trading range today between $86.90 and $91.53 [1][2]. - The international spot silver price has surpassed the $90 mark, leading to a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion, making it the second-largest asset globally, following gold [3]. Group 2: Global Silver Production - The global silver production for 2024 is projected to be approximately 25,000 metric tons, with Mexico leading at an estimated 6,300 metric tons, followed by China at 3,300 metric tons and Peru at 3,100 metric tons [3]. - The combined production of these three countries accounts for over half of the global silver supply, highlighting their critical role in the market [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Technical Analysis - The silver price has shown a bullish trend, breaking through the $90 resistance level, supported by positive signals from the relative strength index (RSI) [4]. - Key price levels to watch include the psychological resistance at $90 and support in the $86-$87 range, which, if breached, could lead to further price adjustments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, driven by multiple factors, indicating its potential as a strong investment opportunity in the current economic climate [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - International spot silver reached $79.819 per ounce (approximately 19.20 yuan per gram), with a daily increase of 4.11% [4]. - Domestic silver (T+D) prices hit 19,400 yuan per kilogram (19.40 yuan per gram), rising by 4.53% [4]. - The Shanghai Futures silver contract surged to 19,438 yuan per kilogram (19.44 yuan per gram), marking a 6.19% increase, leading the market [4]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a weaker dollar and enhancing silver's appeal as a precious metal [4]. - Heightened global geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, have driven investors towards silver as a safe haven [4]. - A historical supply-demand gap in the silver market, with a reported deficit of 320 million ounces in 2025, particularly due to surging demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors, has provided strong fundamental support for silver prices [4]. - Speculative funds have significantly increased their positions in the futures market and silver ETFs, reflecting a surge in retail investor enthusiasm [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For aggressive investors, it is advised to avoid blindly chasing prices and to consider entering positions when prices pull back to the range of 19.0-19.2 yuan per gram [3]. - Conservative investors are encouraged to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach by investing in silver ETFs or physical silver bars monthly to smooth out costs and benefit from long-term industry growth [8]. - For consumers and collectors, it is recommended to purchase silver bars with S999 purity from reputable sources and to be cautious with silver jewelry due to high craftsmanship costs [8]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario (40% probability): If interest rate cuts are implemented and geopolitical tensions persist, silver prices may challenge new highs above 20.5 yuan per gram [8]. - Volatile Scenario (50% probability): The most likely outcome is that silver prices will oscillate between 19.0 and 20.0 yuan per gram, digesting recent gains while awaiting new directional signals [8]. - Downward Scenario (10% probability): In the event of a significant macroeconomic shift, silver prices could retreat below 18 yuan per gram for a deeper correction [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the December non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, which could influence monetary policy and silver prices [1][3]. Economic Data Expectations - There is a significant divergence in market expectations for December non-farm payrolls, with estimates ranging from 25,000 to 155,000. The consensus from FactSet is 55,000, while the Wall Street Journal expects 73,000 and Reuters anticipates 60,000. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that even strong data may be misleading, with projections indicating that 2025 employment growth could be the weakest in decades, excluding 2020. The U.S. Navy Federal Credit Union predicts only 710,000 jobs added in 2025, marking the worst performance since 2003 outside of recession periods [3]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - According to CME data, there is a nearly 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with only an 11% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Recent Fed meeting minutes suggest that a rate cut in January is unlikely [3]. - Future rate cuts are contingent on the labor market; a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% or lower may support maintaining rates, while an increase above 4.7% could prompt cuts. The baseline expectation is that no rate cuts will occur during Powell's tenure [3]. Silver Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown volatility, strengthening bullish momentum supported by the EMA50, with a prevailing upward trend expected in the short term following positive signals from the relative strength index after reaching oversold levels [4]. - A breakout above $83.94 would indicate a restoration of the upward trend, while a drop below $70.07 could shift the primary trend to bearish, potentially accelerating prices down to the mid-term correction range of $64.79 to $60.25, which aligns with a dense support area near the 50-day moving average of $59.60 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing slight increases while silver prices are significantly declining, impacting gold buying interest [1] - The most active gold futures for February 2026 rose by 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, while silver futures for March delivery fell by 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce [1][3] - Traders are closely monitoring the silver market to gauge the intraday movements of gold prices, as the significant drop in silver has dampened gold buying interest [1] Group 2 - The annual commodity index rebalancing is underway, with expectations of billions of dollars in futures contracts being sold, including an estimated $6.8 billion in silver futures [1] - The U.S. labor market data shows a slight increase in initial jobless claims, which may exert pressure on gold prices [1] - HSBC forecasts that geopolitical risks and rising debt could push gold prices to $5050 per ounce in the first half of 2026, but a larger correction may occur in the second half [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs analysts note that low silver inventories could lead to heightened price sensitivity, increasing both the potential for price increases and the risk of declines [2] - The next bullish target for February gold futures is to break through the strong resistance level of $4584.00, while the bearish target is to fall below the strong support level of $4284.30 [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report believes that the silver has reached a phased peak, and the pressure for bulls to continue to push up prices is gradually increasing. The current spot tightness has reached a small peak after the New Year's Day, showing signs of weakness in both the capital and fundamental aspects. Therefore, the silver trend - long strategy is worth exiting [1]. - The current decline and adjustment of silver do not represent the end of the long - term trend. However, the current point has a poor profit - loss ratio, and the adjustment is not over. The spot market needs to ferment again to drive the futures price up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silver Price Analysis - There have been several changes in silver recently: the domestic spot premium has eased, the overseas silver lease rate has significantly dropped from over 8% to 4.46%, and the term structure has changed from back to contango; the internal - external price difference has converged, and the domestic premium has been continuously squeezed out; the exchange has strengthened risk control for silver, restricting the maximum number of open positions and dampening the enthusiasm of bulls. The ruling of the US Supreme Court on Trump's tariffs may be a key factor in falsifying the contradiction in the silver spot market [1]. Trend Judgment - In a macro - environment with good economic data, abundant liquidity and stable monetary policy expectations, the bottom of the commodity trend should be continuously rising. The current tense geopolitical situation is a long - term bullish factor, and the contradiction in the silver spot market still exists [2]. Option Strategies - For on - exchange options, the implied volatility of silver options is falling in a positive correlation with the price. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility premium income. If worried about the risk of the price continuing to soar, one can buy a small amount of in - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - For off - exchange options, for customers planning short - term bets on the callback opportunity, it is recommended to arrange a short - term and medium - range circuit - breaker fixed - payout put ladder option to increase income during the market oscillation period, and also build short positions rhythmically at high prices [4].

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - International silver closed at $72.62 per ounce, up 1.91%, with a high of $74.54 and a low of $71.27 [1] - Analysts believe that silver could see significant price increases due to supply tightness in key regions, potentially leading to price shocks by 2026 [1] Group 2: Recent Developments in Venezuela - The U.S. launched a surprise military operation against Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores [2] - The U.S. Department of Justice unsealed a new indictment against Maduro, accusing him of drug trafficking and other serious crimes [2] - President Trump stated that Maduro has long engaged in violent and subversive activities that threaten U.S. security and regional stability [2] Group 3: Silver Price Projections - Maintaining above short-term moving averages could keep upward targets in focus, potentially leading to resistance near $80.00 [3] - A breakout from the current channel could help silver prices approach the historical high of $85.87 set on December 29 [3] - On the downside, silver may test immediate support at $71.54, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around $70.00 [3]