Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving carbon peak goals and sets the direction for economic and social development in China, emphasizing the importance of carbon emission control and the transition to a new energy system [2][3]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Control - The transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emission dual control begins in the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on intensity control as a primary measure [3][5]. - The carbon intensity reduction target during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is based on achieving a 65% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, with coal and oil consumption peaking as key objectives [5][6]. - Predictions indicate that coal consumption will peak around 2028, while oil consumption is expected to peak between 2025 and 2027, with estimates of 7.7 to 8 million tons [6][7][8]. Group 2: New Energy System Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the construction of a new energy system, aiming for non-fossil energy to account for over 25% of energy consumption by 2030, requiring an annual increase of 1% during this period [6][9]. - The plan outlines three main actions for achieving carbon peak: industrial structure optimization, electrification of economic activities, and cleaner power generation [9][10]. Group 3: Industrial and Economic Transformation - Key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and building materials, which account for about 50% of carbon emissions, will undergo energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations, targeting a reduction of approximately 4 million tons of CO2 emissions [10][12]. - The electrification of industrial, building, and transportation sectors is projected to contribute to a reduction of 3.5 million tons of carbon emissions by 2030, with significant growth expected in the electric vehicle market [14][15][18]. Group 4: Green Investment and Market Creation - Achieving carbon peak will require an estimated investment of 17.5 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of 3.5 trillion yuan, expected to boost GDP growth by 1.2% [24][25]. - The green finance sector is anticipated to grow, with a current capacity to support 2.5 trillion yuan annually, necessitating policies to reduce the green premium and enhance investment in low-carbon technologies [25][26]. Group 5: Carbon Market Development - The carbon market will evolve in two phases: the first phase focuses on expanding coverage and establishing a foundation by 2027, while the second phase aims to make the carbon market a primary channel for greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 [26][29]. - By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," the carbon market is expected to cover 80% of carbon emissions, with a focus on improving the efficiency of renewable energy systems and reducing costs [26][30].

Core Points - Chengdu government has issued the "Implementation Plan for National Carbon Peak Pilot (Chengdu)" to effectively promote carbon peak initiatives before 2030 [1][2] - The overall goal is to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of GDP, enhance the competitiveness of green low-carbon industries, and establish a robust policy framework for green low-carbon development by 2030 [1] Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The plan outlines eight key areas of work, including promoting clean and efficient energy use and optimizing industrial structure [2] - Specific initiatives include the construction of low-carbon and zero-carbon parks, enhancing green building standards, and implementing energy consumption limits for public buildings [2] Group 2: Policy Innovations - The plan proposes the exploration of a dual control system for carbon emissions and the establishment of a product carbon footprint management system [2] - Tasks include developing a rapid reporting system for carbon emissions in industrial enterprises and creating a carbon budget management system [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry or its central enterprises [32]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is crucial for national economic stability and is focused on achieving green and sustainable development alongside safe production practices [3][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of constructing an ESG evaluation system for central enterprises in the petrochemical sector, highlighting energy transition and safety production as core indicators [8][27]. Summary by Sections 1. ESG Policies in the Petrochemical Industry - The industry primarily involves the processing and sale of crude oil and natural gas into various chemical products, with a significant focus on green and sustainable development [3][6]. - Recent government policies aim to guide the industry towards a green low-carbon transition and high-quality development, emphasizing strict energy efficiency constraints and enhanced management [7][8]. 2. Construction of the ESG Evaluation System - The ESG evaluation system for central enterprises in the petrochemical industry includes five additional secondary indicators: New Energy Business Transformation, Oil Leak Risk Management, Public Awareness Investment, Overseas Community Development, and Safety Production [8][10]. - The evaluation system consists of general indicators, environmental indicators, social indicators, and governance indicators, totaling 18 primary indicators and 45 secondary indicators [8][10]. 3. Environmental Indicators - Environmental indicators are designed under the guidance of dual carbon policies, with a focus on new energy business transformation and oil leak risk management as unique indicators for the petrochemical sector [10][12]. - The system includes metrics for waste management, biodiversity protection, and compliance with environmental regulations, reflecting the industry's commitment to ecological sustainability [10][11]. 4. Climate Change Response Indicators - The climate change response indicators assess the commitment of petrochemical central enterprises to global climate change management and domestic dual carbon policies, comprising one primary indicator and four secondary indicators [16][18]. - The report highlights the importance of aligning with national goals for carbon peak and neutrality, urging the industry to transition towards cleaner energy sources [16][18]. 5. Social Responsibility Indicators - Social indicators reflect the responsibilities of petrochemical central enterprises, particularly in public environmental safety awareness and employee training, with three primary indicators and nine secondary indicators [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the need for enterprises to integrate social responsibility into their operations, especially in overseas projects [19][20]. 6. Governance Indicators - Governance indicators are fundamental for sustainable development, focusing on corporate governance structures, mechanisms, and norms, with a total of 34 points available [23][24]. - The report does not introduce specific indicators unique to the petrochemical sector under governance but maintains a focus on overall governance quality [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is facing challenges with profitability due to ineffective policies on crude steel volume control, and preventing internal competition while improving prices remains a key task for the upcoming year [1][3]. Pricing - Steel prices have been on a downward trend, with future movements dependent on production cuts. The core issues include supply-demand mismatches, weakened cost support, and delayed policy effects. The market is currently in a weak balance state characterized by low inventory, low prices, low demand, and high supply elasticity. The future price trajectory will hinge on the effectiveness of production cut policies [2][3]. Supply - The government is continuing to implement crude steel production controls and promote "dual control of carbon emissions." Policies are focused on preventing new steel production capacity under various guises and promoting high-performance special steel and recycling. The effectiveness of these policies has diminished compared to 2021, leading to increased internal competition and deteriorating profitability [3][4]. Demand - The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has been increasing, surpassing 50%. Traditional manufacturing is stable, while high-end manufacturing and emerging industries are growing rapidly. However, real estate sales have not shown significant recovery, and it is expected that steel consumption in the real estate sector will decline. Overall, domestic steel consumption is projected to decrease by 1.9% in 2026 [4][5]. Costs - The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which may improve profitability per ton of steel. The global iron ore market is anticipated to be oversupplied in 2026, with a forecasted equilibrium price of $90 per ton (CFR China), down approximately 12% from 2025, leading to an estimated profit improvement of about 130 yuan per ton of steel [5][6]. Profitability - Profit recovery in the steel industry is contingent upon strict enforcement of production cuts. If production is reduced by 4 million tons, the annual crude steel output would be 945 million tons, potentially restoring gross profit margins to around 300 yuan. Conversely, if production is cut by only 2.5 million tons, the output would be 960 million tons, with profit margins likely remaining at this year's average of 0-100 yuan [6][7].

Core Points - Shanxi Province has issued the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Dual Control System for Carbon Emissions" to establish a comprehensive management system for carbon emissions and ensure the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] - By 2025, a carbon emissions statistical accounting system will be established, with a dual control system focusing on intensity control starting in 2026 [1] - The plan emphasizes the need for carbon emissions accounting in key industries and sectors, utilizing a unified digital platform for monitoring and analysis [1] Summary by Sections - **Carbon Emission Management** The plan aims to accelerate the establishment of management systems for carbon emissions warning, energy conservation, carbon emissions evaluation, and product carbon footprint application [1][2] - **Timeline and Implementation** By 2025, a complete carbon emissions statistical accounting system will be in place. From 2026, a dual control system will be implemented, focusing on intensity control initially and transitioning to total control post-carbon peak [1] - **Data and Standards** The plan will utilize data from energy and industrial statistics, national carbon emissions trading markets, and will adhere to national carbon accounting standards. It will focus on key industries such as chemicals, urban construction, and transportation [1] - **Investment Project Requirements** Carbon emissions evaluation requirements will be integrated into the energy-saving review of fixed asset investment projects, ensuring strict control over energy consumption and carbon emissions for new projects [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Province has issued an implementation plan to accelerate the establishment of a dual control system for carbon emissions, aiming to ensure the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals by enhancing management systems related to carbon emissions and energy efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Emission Control Measures - By 2025, a comprehensive carbon emission statistical accounting system will be established [1] - From 2026, a dual control system focusing on intensity control and supplemented by total control will be fully implemented [1] - After reaching carbon peak, the dual control system will shift to prioritize total control while still considering intensity control [1] Group 2: Data and Monitoring - The plan emphasizes the use of data from energy and industrial statistics, carbon emission accounting, and the national carbon trading market to assess carbon emissions in key industries [1] - A unified digital platform will be established for ongoing analysis and monitoring of carbon emissions, with early warnings for industries experiencing rapid emission growth [1] Group 3: Standards and Regulations - The plan mandates adherence to national carbon emission accounting rules and the development of provincial standards as needed [1] - It requires the integration of carbon emission evaluation into the energy review of fixed asset investment projects to ensure new projects meet energy consumption and carbon emission criteria [2]

Core Points - Hangzhou has issued the "Ten Measures for Promoting Dual Control of Carbon Emissions" to advance its carbon peak pilot city initiative [1] - The measures aim to achieve carbon peak before 2030, with a target of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by over 75% compared to 2005 levels by 2030 [1] - The city plans to implement a dual control system focusing on intensity control and total volume control for carbon emissions [1] Group 1 - The "Ten Measures" include developing carbon emission evaluation guidelines for high energy-consuming industries and monitoring carbon emissions post-production [1] - New high energy-consuming projects will undergo lifecycle carbon management and digital acceptance [1] - The city will explore carbon emission reduction alternatives during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 2 - Hangzhou encourages the creation of national and provincial zero-carbon parks in suitable development zones [1] - The city will explore direct supply models for green electricity and implement pilot programs for a carbon-inclusive platform for green travel [1] - A carbon footprint management system will be developed, supporting third-party accounting and certification for export-oriented products [2]

Core Insights - The policy shift towards dual control of carbon emissions is fundamentally changing the asset attributes and commercial return models of distributed photovoltaics, providing dual value beyond electricity itself: direct economic benefits from electricity cost savings and additional financial gains from carbon asset appreciation [1][3] - The national carbon trading market is expected to show unprecedented vitality in 2024, with trading volumes and values reaching historical highs, and carbon prices stabilizing at a high level of 97.49 yuan/ton by the end of 2024 [1][2] Distributed Photovoltaics in High Energy Consumption Industries - High energy-consuming industries such as steel, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals are facing tightening carbon emission quotas, making the installation of distributed photovoltaics a necessity rather than an option [3] - These industries can utilize their extensive rooftop resources to build photovoltaic power stations, which is the most direct and economical way to reduce carbon emissions [3] Innovations in Photovoltaic Applications - The combination of "photovoltaics + energy storage" and "photovoltaics + virtual power plants" is key to overcoming the bottleneck of electricity consumption and enhancing project value [4] - "Photovoltaics + energy storage" allows excess daytime electricity to be stored and used during peak hours, maximizing the utilization of rooftop resources and generating additional economic benefits [4] - "Photovoltaics + virtual power plants" aggregates distributed resources to provide grid support and create new value, transforming distributed photovoltaics into active grid-supporting resources [4] Scene-based Development of Photovoltaics - Photovoltaics are rapidly penetrating various sectors, creating new value forms through deep integration with different scenarios [5][6] - Applications include "photovoltaics + buildings" (BIPV), "photovoltaics + transportation" (charging stations), "photovoltaics + agriculture" (dual-use land), and "photovoltaics + municipal services" (reducing operational costs in public facilities) [6][7] Refinement in Household Photovoltaics - The household photovoltaic market is transitioning from explosive growth to a new development stage focused on refined operations, emphasizing high-quality service throughout the entire lifecycle [8] - Companies that can provide comprehensive, high-quality, and digital solutions will establish a strong brand moat in both existing and emerging markets [8] Future Outlook - Distributed photovoltaics will become a standard for corporate energy transformation, essential for cost reduction, compliance, and value addition in a future with increasingly stringent carbon constraints [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply, and orderly replacing fossil energy. It aims to build a strong energy nation and implement dual control of carbon emissions [4]. - Green electricity trading volume reached 29 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%. The total electricity market trading volume in September 2025 was 573.2 billion kWh, up 9.8% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in undervalued thermal power, charging pile infrastructure, and the reassessment of photovoltaic and green electricity assets [4]. Industry Data Tracking Electricity Price - In November 2025, the average grid purchase price decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 1.8% month-on-month, averaging 401 RMB/MWh [38]. Coal Price - As of October 31, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 770 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9.31% [42]. Hydropower - As of October 31, 2025, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 174.01 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 75.68% and 122.06% year-on-year, respectively [51]. Electricity Consumption - From January to July 2025, total electricity consumption reached 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [12]. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to July 2025 was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Thermal and hydropower generation saw declines of 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively [19]. Installed Capacity - As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.47 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [44]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued thermal power investments, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and consider companies like Jingtou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power [4]. - For charging pile equipment, companies such as Teruid and Shenghong Co. are recommended [4]. - The reassessment of photovoltaic and charging pile asset values is expected, with a focus on companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group [4]. - Green electricity growth potential is highlighted, with recommendations for Longyuan Power H, Zhongmin Energy, and Sanxia Energy [4]. - Hydropower is noted for its low cost and strong cash flow, with a recommendation for Changjiang Power [4]. - Nuclear power is expected to grow, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that green development is a fundamental aspect of China's modernization, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" laying the groundwork for a comprehensive green transition, aiming for a harmonious coexistence between humans and nature through systemic reforms [1][2]. Systematic Transformation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has established a solid foundation for green transformation, with China building the world's largest renewable energy system, expected to generate 3.46 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2024, which is 1.6 times that of the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - China has also developed the largest electric vehicle charging network globally, with a ratio of 2 charging stations for every 5 electric vehicles, and has maintained the highest production and sales of new energy vehicles for ten consecutive years [1]. Green Transition Framework - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for achieving significant improvements in ecological and environmental conditions, focusing on increasing the share of renewable energy, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green low-carbon transitions in key sectors [2][3]. - The plan aims to systematically integrate green development with economic core elements, emphasizing that green transformation is essential for high-quality economic growth [2]. Carbon Emission Control - The dual control system for carbon emissions is highlighted as a guiding principle for the green transition, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" marking the first five years of this shift, aiming for peak carbon emissions by 2030 [2][3]. - The establishment of the world's largest carbon trading market, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions, is a significant step in this direction [3]. Industry Transformation - The plan outlines a dual approach to industry transformation: increasing the scale of green low-carbon industries, projected to reach approximately 11 trillion yuan, and implementing energy-saving measures in key sectors like steel and petrochemicals, aiming to save over 150 million tons of standard coal [4]. - The focus will be on creating a differentiated and scientifically reasonable carbon emission quota distribution mechanism, enhancing carbon emission statistics, and establishing effective regulatory frameworks [4]. New Energy System - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, aiming to increase the share of renewable energy and ensure the reliable replacement of fossil fuels [5][6]. - By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," it is expected that most new electricity demand will be met by clean energy sources, with a significant reduction in coal's share in energy consumption [5][6]. Future Vision - The vision for energy development includes a robust focus on non-fossil energy, efficient use of fossil fuels, and the establishment of a new power system that supports the integration of renewable energy [6]. - The comprehensive green transition is expected to reshape China's development model and contribute to global ecological civilization, moving towards a more sustainable and harmonious relationship with nature [6].