Core Insights - The article emphasizes the alignment of provincial "14th Five-Year" plans with national carbon neutrality goals, highlighting the importance of achieving carbon peak and dual control of carbon emissions as key objectives for local governments [1][2][7] Group 1: Carbon Peak and Dual Control - The "14th Five-Year" period is identified as a critical phase for China to achieve its carbon peak, with 28 provinces mentioning "carbon peak" in their plans [2] - The national strategy includes a shift from energy consumption dual control to carbon emissions dual control, with all 30 provinces committing to implement this system [2] Group 2: Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions - There is an increased focus on controlling non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, with local plans reflecting a commitment to reduce these emissions in line with national targets for 2035 [3] Group 3: New Energy System Development - The establishment of a new energy system is highlighted as a priority, with all provinces outlining plans to enhance clean and low-carbon energy sources [4] - The national plan advocates for a diversified energy supply, emphasizing the development of solar and wind energy, with 28 provinces mentioning solar energy and 26 focusing on wind energy [4] Group 4: Clean and Efficient Use of Fossil Fuels - The clean and efficient use of fossil fuels is crucial for optimizing energy structure, with various provinces outlining measures to upgrade coal power and reduce coal consumption [5][9] - Specific initiatives include promoting carbon capture technologies and transitioning coal power from a primary energy source to a supportive role [5][9] Group 5: Green and Low-Carbon Energy Consumption - Enhancing electrification across sectors is a key strategy for promoting green energy consumption, with 18 provinces advocating for increased electrification levels [6][11] - Local plans include commitments to improve energy consumption efficiency and promote renewable energy usage in high-energy-consuming industries [6][11]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] "十五五"加码碳排放双控，电力何去何从？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月 20 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，会上再度重申了"双碳"目标，并提出全面实施 碳排放总量和强度双控，建立健全碳达峰碳中和综合评价考核、行业碳管控和产品碳足迹等制 度，完善激励约束政策。电力行业作为纳入碳市场的第一个行业，已经经历了多个履约周期， 在"十五五"碳排放双控加强的预期下，电力行业的碳排放控制也存在趋严的可能，对火电和 绿电将带来不同程度的影响。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 张子淳 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 火电减排压力下，优质个体获得交易回报 research.95579.com 1 公用事业 cjzqdt11111 根据中电联数据统计，2020 年以来全国单位火电发电量二氧化碳排放量呈现整体下滑的态 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2026 年 02 月 13 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：方堃 执业编号：S0300521050001 电话：010-83755575 邮箱：fangkun@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】透视 2026 物价新局：基期 轮换、体感差异与回升之路》2026-02-11 《【粤开宏观】从地方调研看宏观经济：市 场预期、收入分配与微观活力》2026-02-09 《【粤开宏观】如何认识 5%与 140 万亿》 2026-02-02 《【粤开宏观】2025 年中国区域经济版图： 东进西稳，南升北降》2026-02-01 《【粤开宏观】美联储新主席沃什将如何 "掌舵"？能否保持独立？》2026-01-31 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】2026 年地方政府怎么干 ——下篇：任务怎么做？ 摘要 本文是"2026 年地方经济怎么干"系列的下篇，主要聚焦地方政府的重点任 务，核心是地方围绕扩内需、促创新、育产业、防风险四大板块的部署安排 和各地因地制宜发展产业的情况。2026 年 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the expansion of China's carbon market, which now includes high-energy-consuming industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, paper, and banking, with a full implementation expected by 2027 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The new industries added to the carbon market are expected to contribute an additional 1 to 1.5 billion tons of carbon emissions, which is relatively limited compared to the existing emissions from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors that account for 70-80% of China's total carbon emissions [2][7]. - The carbon market is transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with local governments facing assessments based on carbon intensity, impacting project approvals and officials' promotions [2][23]. - The pricing of carbon credits is expected to stabilize and gradually rise, with projections estimating prices to be between 150 to 200 yuan by 2030 [2][25][26]. Allocation of Carbon Quotas - New high-energy industries will likely have their carbon quotas allocated based on production output, with specific methods such as baseline allocation for different product concentrations in industries like caustic soda [4][9]. - For complex industries, historical total or intensity methods may be used, which could disadvantage advanced companies planning to expand production [4][10]. - The aviation sector is currently only partially included, with airports subject to carbon management while airlines will be managed separately by the Civil Aviation Administration [5][16]. Impact on Related Industries - The expansion of the carbon market will directly affect downstream industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and paper, requiring them to report and manage their carbon emissions [3]. - The clean energy sector is expected to benefit from this expansion, with opportunities arising in areas like green electricity, green hydrogen, and biofuels [3]. - Companies involved in energy-saving equipment and carbon monitoring technologies are also anticipated to gain from the market's growth [3]. Regulatory and Compliance Aspects - Companies failing to meet carbon quota requirements face severe penalties, as illustrated by a case where a company was fined 420 million yuan for not clearing its carbon emissions [20]. - The carbon quota distribution process includes a pre-allocation phase (typically 70%) followed by final adjustments based on actual verified data [19]. Future Projections and Considerations - The carbon market is expected to gradually tighten its regulations, particularly for new coal-fired power plants, while industries like steel and cement may benefit from historical production quotas [14]. - The transition to carbon emission control will require industries to adapt their operations, with different pathways for emission reductions depending on the sector [15]. Additional Important Points - The carbon market's current coverage includes approximately 7 to 8 billion tons of emissions, with the total carbon emissions in China around 10 billion tons [7]. - The methodology for quota allocation may evolve, with potential shifts towards more comprehensive management strategies that consider both historical production and emission intensity [10][11].

Core Insights - The national carbon emissions trading market has achieved significant progress, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a transaction value of 57.663 billion RMB by the end of December 2025 [1] - The market is a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a comprehensive green transition in the economy and society [1] - The trading volume for 2025 is projected to reach 235 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.630 billion RMB [2] Group 1 - The national carbon market has expanded its coverage to include approximately 3,300 key emission units, accounting for about 65% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions [1] - The trading price remained stable, with a closing price of 74.63 RMB per ton at the end of 2025 and an average trading price of 62.36 RMB per ton throughout the year [2] - The market has established a robust data quality management mechanism, including a three-tier review system and monthly verification of key carbon emission data [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to accelerate the development of the national carbon market by refining the regulatory framework and expanding the industry coverage [3] - The Supreme People's Court has issued judicial guidelines to support the dual carbon goals, focusing on cases related to new energy, carbon markets, and green finance [3] - Over the past five years, the court has resolved 311,000 cases related to resource and energy, with a notable decrease in mining-related criminal and administrative cases in 2025 compared to 2021 [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally on February 9, with the Chemical ETF (516020) opening high and maintaining a positive trend, reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1.79% and closing up by 1.05% [1][6] - Key stocks in the sector included Zhejiang Longsheng, which surged over 8%, and other companies like Lianhong Xinke and Cangge Mining, both rising over 3% [1][6] - The recent supply dynamics in the basic chemical industry have improved, with high-energy-consuming capacities being phased out under policy guidance, leading to increased industry concentration and lower inventory levels among leading manufacturers [8] Group 2 - Demand for traditional products such as soda ash and PVC is recovering due to a rebound in real estate completions, while emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic installations are driving demand for lithium battery materials and EVA resins [8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decline in the basic chemical industry has narrowed, indicating a stabilization in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sectors [8] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, covering popular themes such as AI computing power, anti-involution, robotics, and new energy [8]

Economic Goals - GDP growth targets for most provinces are set around 5%, with Sichuan and Hubei at approximately 5.5%, and Tibet exceeding 7%[8] - Guangdong's growth target is set between 4.5% and 5%[8] Diplomatic Engagements - Frequent diplomatic activities include meetings between Chinese and foreign leaders, with expectations for upcoming meetings between China and the US, Germany, and others[9] Macro Policy Direction - The macro policy emphasizes "stability while seeking progress" and aims to promote a reasonable recovery in prices, focusing on domestic circulation and the real economy[10] Investment Strategy - Investment will focus on both physical and human capital, with an emphasis on increasing the proportion of investments in people's livelihoods[13] Consumer Growth - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with initiatives to support consumption upgrades and new growth points in service consumption[15] Unified Market Development - Key sectors such as electricity, transportation, technology, and data are targeted for breakthroughs in the construction of a unified national market[20] Agricultural Modernization - The focus shifts to agricultural modernization, emphasizing food security and improving agricultural quality and efficiency[21] Energy Transition - The dual control of energy consumption is transitioning to carbon emissions control, with a planned investment of 4 trillion yuan in the new power system during the 14th Five-Year Plan[22] Technological Innovation - Local governments are encouraged to develop new productive forces, with a focus on building international technology innovation centers in key regions[23] Urban Development - A multi-level modern urban system is being constructed, with efforts to enhance the capital metropolitan area and promote regional coordinated development[24]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 市场分析认为，石化化工行业正迎来基本面复苏的关键布局期。具体来看，产能周期筑顶叠加碳排放双 控政策推进，供给格局有望优化；行业"反内卷"措施趋于立体，有望提升复苏斜率；海外产能退出与需 求回暖，驱动出口迈向量价齐升；同时，化工新材料受益于新旧动能转换，将持续为行业增长注入弹 性。 中证石化产业指数既覆盖"三桶油"等炼化龙头，也包括万华化学、恒力石化等细分化工领军企业，其 PX-PTA-长丝产业链含量高，直接受益于产品涨价预期与行业估值修复。化工行业ETF易方达 （516570）管理费率仅为0.15%/年，处于全市场ETF中最低水平，为投资者把握行业发展机遇提供了低 成本工具。 2月4日早盘，A股市场走势分化，石油、化工板块涨跌互现。截至10:45，中证石化产业指数上涨 0.3%，成分股中，三棵树、中国石化涨超3%。相关ETF近期受到资金青睐。Wind数据显示，化工行业 ETF易方达（516570）近一周合计资金净流入达11亿元。 上周聚酯产业链价格全面上涨，上游成本端支撑力度增强，对市场情绪形成提振，拉动PX、MEG、 PTA市场持续走高，短纤及瓶片价格也有明显上涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, specifically recommending Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [3][12][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the dual policy drive for solid waste recycling, emphasizing the benefits for leading companies in the sector due to new regulations aimed at promoting green and low-carbon development in industrial parks [1][8]. - It notes the recent decline in carbon trading prices, with the national carbon market closing at 82.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.47% decrease from the previous week [1]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by historically low interest rates, which is expected to favor high-dividend and growth-oriented assets in the environmental sector [1][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report discusses the issuance of the "Management Measures for Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zones (Ecological Industrial Parks)" by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which emphasizes "pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy" as a core assessment criterion for parks [8][9]. - It also covers the implementation of the "Energy Saving Review and Carbon Emission Evaluation Implementation Measures" in Sichuan Province, which mandates carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects [11][12]. - The report suggests that the current low valuation and institutional holdings in the environmental sector indicate a potential for sustained rebounds [13]. Market Performance Review - During the week of January 26-30, the environmental sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 4.33%, compared to a -0.44% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [16][25]. - Specific sub-sectors such as monitoring and water treatment experienced significant declines, with monitoring down by 6.33% [16]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is noted for its strong growth potential, particularly in hazardous waste management and plastic recycling projects, with a projected EPS growth from 0.22 CNY in 2024 to 4.05 CNY in 2027 [3][15]. - Gaoneng Environment is recognized for its comprehensive environmental system solutions and is expected to benefit from increased project orders [15]. - Hongcheng Environment is highlighted for its consistent dividend payouts and robust management, with a projected EPS growth from 0.93 CNY in 2024 to 1.07 CNY in 2027 [3][15].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing fluctuations in line with the broader market and commodity prices, with a notable net subscription of 131 million units for the chemical ETF (159870) [1] - The chemical industry has historically shown strong cyclicality, with demand spanning various essential sectors, maintaining steady growth despite significant supply shocks [1] - Supply-side changes are significant, with the EU facing high energy costs leading to a continued exit from the market, while the U.S. is attempting to bring manufacturing back, albeit at high costs [1] Group 2 - The implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions in 2024 will impose strict supply limitations on several industries, including refrigerants, chromium salts, sulfur, PVC, and high-energy-consuming sectors [1] - Specific industries facing clear supply restrictions include refrigerants due to the Montreal Protocol, chromium salts driven by increasing demand for high-temperature alloys, and sulfur as a byproduct of refining [1] - The chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, which consists of large-cap, liquid stocks from various sub-industries [2]