1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the mismatch in the production schedules of new upstream and downstream capacities [3]. - The styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. With the 3S entering the traditional off - season and the decline in downstream开工率, styrene has entered a inventory accumulation channel. Attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On July 4, the main styrene contract closed up 0.59% at 7340 yuan/ton, with a basis of 290 (+22 yuan/ton). The main Brent crude oil contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 68.8 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5880 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% decrease in inventory compared to the previous period. Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% increase in inventory compared to the previous period, and overall styrene inventory tended to accumulate [2]. - Styrene maintenance devices gradually returned, and overall supply remained stable. Currently, the weekly styrene output remained at 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 80.0% (-0.1%) [2]. - The capacity utilization rates of the three major downstream products (3S) of styrene changed differently. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 55.9 (-3.84%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.0% (-1.0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 52.4% (-5.0%), with the overall开工 rate declining [2]. 3.1.2. Views - **Pure Benzene**: The current pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has fluctuations in the petroleum benzene开工率, while the hydrogenated benzene开工率 has climbed to a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the maintenance season in the second quarter. This week, the East China port inventory accumulated, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next Monday. The news of the possible early commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene unit has widened the price difference between pure benzene and styrene. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand [3]. - **Styrene**: The current styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. Although the overall industry开工率 remains stable, the weekly output has reached a historical high. The开工 rates of the three major downstream products (PS, ABS, EPS) have all declined. The 3S has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic. The East China port inventory has significantly accumulated, and styrene has entered an inventory accumulation channel. However, due to the continuous stockpiling behavior of industrial giants, the basis of the July contract has not returned to the normal level, and attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On July 4, the main styrene futures contract price increased by 0.59% to 7340 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7904 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 8.21% to 290 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 0.34% to 5880 yuan/ton [6]. - The prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB), the United States (FOB), and China (CFR) all had small fluctuations, with increases of 0.42%, 0.00%, and 0.14% respectively. The price difference between domestic and imported pure benzene and the price difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene also changed [6]. - The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased, with decreases of 0.67%, 0.45%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From June 27 to July 4, the styrene output in China remained at 36.7 million tons, and the pure benzene output remained at 43.3 million tons [7]. - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. 3.2.3.开工Rate Situation - Among the pure benzene downstream products, the styrene capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.05% to 80.0%, the caprolactam capacity utilization rate increased by 6.41% to 95.7%, the phenol capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.46% to 78.5%, and the aniline capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.10% to 69.2% [8]. - Among the styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.84% to 55.9%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.96% to 65.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits that it may be difficult to complete all negotiations [9]. - Trump may lead a delegation to visit China. US officials are formulating a plan for Trump to lead dozens of CEOs to visit China later this year, similar to his Middle East trip in May, which facilitated transactions worth over 2 trillion dollars [9]. - Republican senators promoted the passage of a "great and beautiful" bill. The US Senate advanced Trump's tax reform bill with a narrow 51 - 49 vote in a key procedural vote [9]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][16][17][28]

Group 1 - Gold futures experienced a brief rise but faced resistance, currently trading around 770 CNY per gram, indicating a continuation of high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [3] - The government employment segment contributed significantly to the job growth, with 73,000 jobs added, which is substantially higher than the previous 7,000 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Congress passed a tax reform bill that will permanently implement the 2017 tax reform policies and introduce new tax incentives, projected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The ongoing rise in national debt, which has exceeded $37 trillion, diminishes the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, thereby supporting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of the 90-day tariff suspension initiated by Trump is expected to heighten policy uncertainty, impacting market volatility and supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5] - Despite strong signals of economic resilience in the U.S., which may restore market risk appetite, gold prices are anticipated to remain in a high-level fluctuation range due to trade agreement uncertainties [5] - Technical analysis indicates a "triple top" formation for international gold prices, with a focus on U.S. inflation data, maintaining a trading range of 760-801 CNY per gram for the Shanghai gold futures [5]

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party called "American Party" in response to the controversial "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump [1][2] - Musk's social media poll regarding the establishment of the "American Party" showed 65.4% support from over 1.24 million participants, indicating a desire for a new political alternative to the current two-party system [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax reform bill has faced significant criticism from Musk, who described it as "completely crazy and destructive," and warned of its potential negative impacts on healthcare and national debt [3] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to result in nearly 12 million people losing health insurance over the next decade and an increase in national debt by $3.3 trillion [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Silver, industrial silicon, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Alumina, zinc, tin, log, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, bond futures, gold, copper, nickel, stainless steel, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coking coal, coke, cotton, corn, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, styrene, PVC, VCM, shipping freight rates [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and there are few positive factors at home and abroad. The stock index faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space. The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price of gold, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price of gold. The macro and commodity attributes still support the price of silver, which may be strong in the short term [1]. - The unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The copper price may oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk. The aluminum price has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand. The price of alumina and zinc may be weak. The nickel price has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The stainless steel has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The price of tin has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - The industrial silicon is favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment. The polysilicon is expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment. The supply of lithium carbonate has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active. The rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore may oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. The price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions [1]. - The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, and the short-term view is bullish. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. The corn price may oscillate, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The soybean price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is currently undervalued with macro positives. The log price is weak. The live pig futures may be stable due to the weak impact of the current slaughter on the spot price [1]. - The crude oil and fuel oil may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States. The asphalt price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand. The BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term. The PTA price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales [1]. - The short fiber price may oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The styrene price may oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The PVC price may oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand. The VCM price may oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. The LPG price has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand and the narrow spread between industrial and civil use [2]. - The shipping freight rate on the European route is expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2]. Summary by Industry Segments Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern due to the shrinking trading volume and few positive factors at home and abroad. Follow-up attention should be paid to the guidance of macro incremental information on the direction of the stock index [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price [1]. - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes still support the price, which may be strong in the short term [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: May oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk and the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Aluminum**: Has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand [1]. - **Alumina**: The price may be weak due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Zinc**: Has a risk of decline due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States and the continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - **Nickel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. Short-term interval operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the improvement of demand [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Short-term operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material changes and the steel mill production schedule [1]. - **Tin**: Has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The upward space is suppressed by the production restriction of steel mills, but the high short-term demand provides support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The production decreases under the pressure of profit, and the demand weakens marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to the short-term increase in production, the weakening of demand, and the insufficient cost support [1]. - **Coking Coal**: May oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions. The short-term trading level cannot be falsified, so the short positions on the futures market can be temporarily avoided [1]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, the short-term view is bullish. Follow-up attention should be paid to the hearing on the 8th and the supply and demand reports from the producing areas [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of the US economic recession and the Sino-US tariff war [1]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. Follow-up attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil price on the sugar production ratio in Brazil's new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The short-term import of corn and the release of brown rice have impacted the market, but the impact is within the market expectation. The old crop of corn has a tightening supply and demand expectation, and the decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. The C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Soybeans**: May oscillate due to the strong US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US trade negotiations and the slight decline of the Brazilian premium. The domestic oil mills have a phenomenon of urging提货, and the basis is weak. Short-term attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Pulp**: The outer quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, the domestic demand is weak, and the current valuation is low, with macro positives [1]. - **Log**: The current season is the off-season, and the supply decreases limitedly even when the outer price rises. The view is weak [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant on the futures market, and the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. The short-term spot price is less affected by the slaughter, but the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: May oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Fuel，Oil**: Similar to crude oil, may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Asphalt**: The price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the limited support from the raw material end, the pressure on the synthetic rubber fundamentals, the high basis, and the follow-up of the butadiene price. Follow-up attention should be paid to the price adjustment of butadiene and the spot price of cis-polybutadiene rubber, as well as the de-stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the bottle chips and short fibers will enter the maintenance cycle in July [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales. The macro sentiment has improved, and the chemical industry has followed the downward trend of the crude oil price [1]. - **Short Fiber**: May oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The short fiber factory has a maintenance plan [2]. - **Styrene**: May oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The market speculative demand has weakened, and the pure benzene price has rebounded slightly [2]. - **PVC**: May oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand [2]. - **VCM**: May oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. Follow-up attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine [2]. - **LPG**: Has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand, the narrow spread between industrial and civil use, and the slow decline of the spot price [2]. Others - **Shipping Freight Rate on the European Route**: Expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, anticipates that the House of Representatives will vote on the tax reform bill around 1:30 PM today [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the House of Representatives is preparing to vote on a tax reform bill, which is expected to be a significant step towards achieving the largest tax cuts in history and promoting substantial economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. House of Representatives appears ready to vote on the tax reform bill tonight, with President Trump indicating a unified stance among the Republican majority [1] Group 1 - President Trump mentioned that discussions throughout the day were very pleasant, suggesting a positive atmosphere surrounding the tax reform negotiations [1] - The Republican majority in the House is reportedly united, which may facilitate the passage of the tax reform bill [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to concerns about tariff policy uncertainty and the likely passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by the US Senate, along with the continuous decline of the US dollar index, the precious metal prices are boosted. Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, while silver will follow gold's rise but its upside may be limited by factors such as the slowdown in the price increase of platinum and the weakening of its own fundamental demand [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.2% to $3331.05 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.1% to $36.25 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.2% to $3342.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.2% to $36.51 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 1, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -$3.19 per gram, with a 10.0% increase from June 30; the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -$26 per kilogram, with a 30.0% increase. Other price spreads and ratios also had different changes [3]. Position Data - As of June 30, 2025, compared with June 27, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position decreased by 0.24% to 952.53 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position decreased by 0.27% to 14826.61263 tons. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different degrees of decline and increase [3]. Inventory Data - On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1.18% to 18453.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 3.01% to 1338844.00 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory remained basically unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. Other Market Data - On July 1, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07% to 7.15. The US dollar index decreased by 0.27%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.17%, the VIX increased by 2.51%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.52%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.15% [4].

美国众议院议长迈克·约翰逊：众议院有望最迟在周三或周四对税改法案进行投票。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill, referred to as the "Big and Beautiful" bill, with a vote of 51 to 50, which is now submitted to the House of Representatives [2] - The bill includes significant tax cuts and spending measures, reflecting President Trump's economic agenda [2] - The ongoing public dispute between President Trump and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, escalated, with Trump suggesting potential government scrutiny of Musk's business practices [4][5] Group 2 - Due to fluctuations in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China were raised, effective July 1, with gasoline increasing by 235 yuan per ton and diesel by 225 yuan per ton [8] - The average price increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively [8]