Core Viewpoint - The container shipping index (European route) futures have significantly declined, with the main contract EC2602 dropping nearly 8% to 1453.5 points, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market due to weak spot market conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The container shipping market is overshadowed by weak spot market performance, leading several shipping companies to collectively lower their December pricing, with Hapag-Lloyd reducing rates to $2235/FEU, and others following suit [3]. - The current willingness of shipping companies to maintain prices shows divergence, with Maersk's pricing expectations not being strong, contributing to a pessimistic market outlook [3][4]. - The December shipping market may experience a "peak season that is not strong," influenced by the later timing of the 2026 Chinese New Year, which could delay shipping volumes [4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - Historical trends indicate that the spot market for container shipping saw a continuous decline from early December last year until late February this year, raising concerns about a similar pattern occurring this year [4]. - The current fluctuation in spot freight rates mirrors last year's patterns, with potential price increases being limited despite some improvement in shipping volumes [4]. - The supply of shipping capacity for January is expected to be abundant, with confirmed capacity for the first two weeks reaching 306,000 TEU and 346,000 TEU, respectively, which may lead to aggressive pricing strategies among shipping companies [4]. Group 3: Futures Contracts and Pricing Strategies - The near-term futures contracts are expected to follow the fluctuations in spot market rates, with shipping companies having pricing expectations for the traditional peak season from December to January [5]. - The potential for a price war among shipping companies exists, particularly if they attempt to stockpile goods before the holiday season [4][5]. - The main contract EC2602 is closely linked to the EC2512 contract, with the pricing strategies of shipping companies in late December likely to influence market expectations for January and February [5]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The market is closely monitoring geopolitical developments and the progress of the Red Sea's reopening, which could impact future shipping routes and overall market sentiment [6]. - Recent statements from Maersk regarding the potential resumption of operations in the Suez Canal indicate a cautious optimism, but safety concerns in the region remain a significant risk [6].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures have significantly declined, with the main contract EC2602 dropping nearly 8% to 1453.5 points, reflecting a weak spot market and a lack of price support from shipping companies [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The shipping market is expected to experience a "weak peak season" in December, influenced by a late Chinese New Year in 2026, which may lead to delayed shipments [3] - Shipping companies collectively lowered their December prices, with Hapag-Lloyd reducing rates to $2,235/FEU, and others like CMA CGM and OOCL also cutting prices [1] - The current spot freight rate fluctuations are similar to last year's trends, with peak rates occurring in early December [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The near-term contract EC2512's performance will depend on the actual pricing strategies of major shipping companies in December, particularly their willingness to raise prices [5] - The supply of shipping capacity for January is robust, with confirmed slot sizes reaching 306,000 TEU and 346,000 TEU for the first two weeks, indicating potential for price competition among shipping companies [3] - The future performance of the long-term contract will be influenced by geopolitical developments and the progress of the Red Sea's reopening, which is currently facing safety challenges [6][7]

Market Overview - As of November 14, gold prices fell by 2.20% to $4080.04 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.98% from $3998.67 to $4245.23 before the decline [1] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.70% to $4081.00 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 1.75% [1] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, Nasdaq up 0.13%, and S&P 500 down 0.05% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell over 1.6%, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and JD.com and Xpeng Motors down over 4% [1] U.S. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. government has removed certain agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariff" list as per a new executive order signed by President Trump [3] - The adjustments are based on domestic product demand and capacity assessments, with the updated tariff exemptions effective from November 13, 2025 [3] Geopolitical Tensions - Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova warned NATO against any potential attacks, stating that Russia is prepared to respond with all necessary force [5] - The situation remains tense with ongoing military activities near the Russian border [5] Shipping and Freight Market - The shipping futures market is under pressure due to spot market conditions and the situation in the Red Sea, with near-term freight rates showing weakness [10] - Several shipping companies have lowered their quotes for the second half of November, with Maersk reducing its Week 48 opening price to $2000-$2100 per FEU [11] - The overall sentiment for December pricing remains uncertain, with some companies announcing price increases while others maintain a cautious approach [12][13] - The potential for resuming shipping routes through the Red Sea is increasing, but most companies remain cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [14]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The core contradiction in the market this week has shifted from the "expectation of collective price hikes by shipping companies" to the "expectation gap between the conservative pricing of leading shipping companies and the optimistic market sentiment." The conservative pricing strategy of Maersk has weakened the bullish sentiment in the market, and the spot freight rate shows high differentiation, with limited upward momentum [2]. - The short - term market will be dominated by the game between "weak reality" and "stable expectation" due to the weak cargo volume and the strategic differentiation among shipping companies [2]. - The near - term trading logic focuses on the actual implementation of the shipping companies' price - holding actions from November to December, while the long - term trading logic is affected by factors such as 2025's shipping capacity delivery pressure, seasonal factors, and potential resumption of navigation [5][8]. - The market is in a high - level shock and short - term weak state. The main contract EC2512 has encountered significant resistance above 2000 points, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 1800 - 2050 points with a slightly downward center of gravity [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - **Market Core Contradiction**: The core contradiction has shifted, and Maersk's conservative pricing has led to a weakening of bullish sentiment and significant long - position reduction in the main contract 2512. Spot freight rates are highly differentiated, and it is difficult to form a trend - like upward momentum [2]. - **Near - term Trading Logic**: It centers around the actual implementation of the shipping companies' price - holding actions from November to December. The actual effect of the first round of price - holding in December will be the key to the valuation of the 2512 contract. The decrease in the weekly average shipping capacity from East China to European base ports in December may support the price hikes [5]. - **Long - term Trading Expectation**: It is affected by factors such as 2025's shipping capacity delivery pressure, seasonal factors, and potential resumption of navigation. High shipping capacity and other factors limit the upward space of freight rates, and the long - term contracts face multiple suppressing forces [8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in a high - level shock and short - term weak state. The main contract EC2512 is expected to oscillate in the range of 1800 - 2050 points with a slightly downward center of gravity [10]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between near - and far - term contracts reflects the market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunities brought by spread fluctuations, but operations need to be cautious due to the uncertainty of the Red Sea resumption of navigation [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Risk Management Strategies**: For companies with excessive shipping capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits; for those worried about rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures to determine the booking cost in advance [13]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Comprehensive Freight Rate Index**: The FBX comprehensive route index increased by 16.22% week - on - week, while the CICFI, SCFI, NCFI, and SCFIS European route index decreased, and the SCFIS US - West route index increased by 14.43%. The SCFI European, US - West, and US - East route freight rates all decreased [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Shipping companies are determined to hold prices and continue to announce price hikes until December; there are positive signs in shipping capacity regulation; the year - end seasonal peak season provides marginal support for freight rates [29]. - **Negative Information**: There are signs of easing in the geopolitical situation, increasing the expectation of Red Sea route resumption; the spot index has turned from rising to falling; macro and trade data are weak [30]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The main contract EC2512 had a volatile "roller - coaster" trend this week. It reached a new high this year but then declined due to the increased expectation of Red Sea resumption and the decline of the spot index. The trading volume and open interest increased, indicating intensified divergence between bulls and bears [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis (spot - futures) contango structure is still deep. The current high premium of futures means that the spot needs to rise more strongly to support the futures price, otherwise, the futures price may return to the spot price [36]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The spread between near - and far - term contracts maintains a B structure but fluctuates. The far - term contracts are more sensitive to negative factors, reflecting the market's concern about the medium - and long - term fundamentals [40]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits compared to the same period last year. Most shipping companies are still profitable [43]. - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that the uncertainty has increased, and they will operate more cautiously, which may affect the freight rate trend from the supply and cost sides [43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three main factors driving the recent increase in shipping rates, including proactive price increases by shipping companies, geopolitical tensions boosting market sentiment, and strikes at key European ports disrupting supply chains [4]. Group 1: Price Increases by Shipping Companies - Major shipping companies such as Mediterranean Shipping Company, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced price increases for November, with rates for a 20-foot container rising to the range of $1,500 to $1,700 and for a 40-foot container to $2,500 to $2,700, reflecting an increase of nearly 30% compared to the end of October [8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - China's response to the U.S. 301 investigation, which includes imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels, has significantly boosted market sentiment. The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced the implementation of these fees starting October 14, while also launching an investigation into the impact on the shipping and shipbuilding industries [10][11]. Group 3: Supply Chain Disruptions - Strikes at key European ports, specifically Rotterdam and Antwerp, have led to cargo delays and operational disruptions, resulting in capacity losses for shipping companies [13]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, current prices reflect some expectations of price increases, but further upward movement will require new catalysts, with a forecast of wide fluctuations. In the medium to long term, expectations of the Red Sea reopening may suppress the valuation of long-term contracts, maintaining a bearish outlook [5][15]. - The strategy suggests capturing structural opportunities in the market, particularly focusing on the spread between contracts 2512 and 2606 [5].