Core Viewpoint - The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, reflecting increased trade barriers and economic uncertainty [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The OECD predicts that global economic growth will be particularly weak in 2025, with a global output increase of only 2.5%, and the U.S. economy growing by just 1.1% [3]. - The report highlights that the economic slowdown is concentrated in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, while China and other economies are expected to see smaller downgrades [3]. Inflation Trends - The overall inflation rate for G20 countries is expected to gradually ease from 6.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, with trade barriers' inflation impact offset by falling oil prices and slowing economic growth [4]. - The U.S. is an exception, with inflation rates projected to be higher than previously expected, at 3.2% and 2.8% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. Trade Barriers and Economic Risks - The report indicates that rising trade barriers and policy uncertainty are likely to further suppress global growth and increase inflation [7]. - The potential for increased tariffs by the U.S. could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, exacerbating financial market risks and reducing global demand for key commodities [7]. Policy Recommendations - The OECD suggests that countries should prioritize avoiding further trade fragmentation and barriers, advocating for multilateral cooperation to reduce tariffs and trade tensions [8]. - It emphasizes the need for cautious monetary policy to ensure public debt sustainability and to promote domestic investment and growth [8]. Investment Climate - The OECD's chief economist noted that investment has been declining since the global financial crisis, which hinders economic growth, and called for bold policy reforms to stimulate investment in the digital and knowledge economy [9].

Core Insights - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong indicated that the downward revision of economic growth expectations is primarily influenced by the construction industry [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Expectations - The economic growth forecast has been adjusted downward, reflecting challenges faced by the construction sector [1] - The construction industry is identified as a significant factor impacting overall economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has revised down its economic growth forecast for Europe to 3% for 2025, indicating a period of slowing growth due to trade uncertainties stemming from U.S. government tariff policies [1] Summary by Categories Economic Forecast - The growth forecast for Europe has been lowered to 3% for 2025, following a previous reduction of 0.3 percentage points in February [1] Trade Impact - The downward revision reflects the impact of trade uncertainties caused by U.S. government tariff policies, suggesting that Europe is entering a phase of economic slowdown [1]

Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to harm key sectors in Thailand, including automotive, food processing, and agriculture, potentially causing losses up to 800 billion THB (approximately 24 billion USD), which is about 4% of Thailand's GDP [1] - Thailand's GDP for 2024 is projected to be around 19.8 trillion THB [1] - The U.S. is Thailand's largest trading partner, with exports reaching 55 billion USD last year [1] Group 2: Affected Industries - The automotive industry, employing around 700,000 people, is anticipated to be severely impacted, with a 25% tariff on Thai automotive and parts exports likely leading to a decline in exports [1] - In the first two months of 2025, total vehicle exports from Thailand were 143,644 units, a decrease of 18.12% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The processed food and seafood sectors previously enjoyed zero tariffs, with the U.S. being a major market for Thai seafood, accounting for over 25% of U.S. tuna imports, valued at 584 million USD [1] Group 3: Tourism and Agriculture - The tourism sector in Thailand is facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs, which may increase prices and weaken purchasing power, affecting American tourists' travel plans [2] - In the previous year, Thailand welcomed 1.03 million American tourists, with an average spending of over 70,000 THB per person [2] - Thai pig farmers oppose the government's proposal to import U.S. pork, fearing it will undermine local livestock industries [2] Group 4: Economic Growth Forecast - Thailand has revised its economic growth forecast downward, with exports expected to grow only 2.3% this year, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 4.4% [2]

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The EY Item Club predicts that the UK economic growth rate for 2026 will be halved due to the impact of comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, leading to a significant downward revision of growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for the UK economy in 2025 has been revised down from 1% to 0.8%, and for 2026 from 1.6% to 0.9% [1] - The forecast for household spending growth has been reduced from 1.6% to 0.9% for this year [2] - Business investment growth is now expected to be only 0.3%, down from a previous forecast of 2% [2] Trade and Investment Impact - The UK is expected to experience a decline in exports, with a projected decrease of 0.5% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026 [2] - The overall economic outlook indicates that commercial investment will be particularly hard hit, with almost no growth anticipated this year [1] Government Financial Planning - The bleak economic outlook poses challenges for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, whose fiscal plans are based on an anticipated economic growth of nearly 2% in 2026 [1] - The downward revision of economic expectations increases the risk that Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending to adhere to fiscal rules [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the economic challenges, the EY Item Club expects the Bank of England to maintain a gradual interest rate cut cycle, with the possibility of accelerating easing in the future [2] - However, it is warned that inflation rates are likely to remain above 3% for most of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that U.S. tariff measures will have significant negative impacts on the global economy, including the U.S. itself, with a notable reduction in economic growth forecasts for 2025 and rising inflation expectations [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 3.3% made in January, and below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000 to 2019 [1]. - The U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been revised down to 1.8%, a decrease of nearly 1 percentage point from the previous estimate of 2.7% [1]. - The U.S. economic growth for 2026 is expected to be 1.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from earlier predictions [1]. Inflation Expectations - The IMF predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to 3% this year, which is 1 percentage point higher than the forecast made in January [1][2]. Impact on Other Economies - The IMF forecasts that Mexico, as a major trading partner of the U.S., will experience the most severe economic impact, with a projected contraction of 0.3% this year [4]. - Japan's economic growth is expected to be 0.6%, down from a previous estimate of 1.1%, while Germany's growth is projected to be flat at 0.0% this year [4]. Risks and Uncertainties - The current economic outlook is dominated by increasing downside risks, with escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties potentially suppressing both short-term and long-term economic growth [4]. - The IMF has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 25% to 37% [4]. Potential for Improvement - The IMF's chief economist suggests that if current trade policies are paused and new trade agreements are reached, the global economic growth outlook could improve immediately [5].

Core Viewpoint - The German economic research institute has significantly lowered its growth forecast for 2025 from 0.8% to 0.1%, indicating a challenging economic outlook for Germany, which is the only G7 economy not to have achieved growth in the past two years [1] Economic Forecast - The revised growth expectation does not account for the latest tariffs announced by the United States, which are expected to have a substantial negative impact on Germany's economy [1] - There is a risk that Germany may enter a historical phase of consecutive economic decline for the first time in its history, potentially facing three years of recession [1] Government Response - Following the February elections, the conservative party led by the incoming Chancellor Merz and the Social Democratic Party, which is negotiating to form a government, announced a €500 billion infrastructure fund [1] - The government plans to implement comprehensive reforms to borrowing rules aimed at strengthening national defense and revitalizing economic growth [1]

消息人士：德国经济研究机构将2025年的增长预期从去年9月份的0.8%下调至0.1% 。 ...

摩根大通下调韩国2025年经济增长预期至0.7% 金十数据4月8日讯，美国提高对韩国的关税促使摩根大通在一周内两次下调对韩国的增长预测。上周， 摩根大通经济学家Seok Gil Park将韩国2025年GDP增长预期从1.2%下调至0.9%，目前已下调至0.7%。 Park预计，考虑到美国关税的增加和下半年美国经济可能出现衰退，韩国的实际出口在2025年剩余时间 内将出现季度环比收缩。他预计韩国央行将大幅放松货币政策，除了财政刺激措施外，还可能从4月份 开始再降息五次，以支持经济。 ...