Core Viewpoint - The EY Item Club predicts that the UK economic growth rate for 2026 will be halved due to the impact of comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, leading to a significant downward revision of growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for the UK economy in 2025 has been revised down from 1% to 0.8%, and for 2026 from 1.6% to 0.9% [1] - The forecast for household spending growth has been reduced from 1.6% to 0.9% for this year [2] - Business investment growth is now expected to be only 0.3%, down from a previous forecast of 2% [2] Trade and Investment Impact - The UK is expected to experience a decline in exports, with a projected decrease of 0.5% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026 [2] - The overall economic outlook indicates that commercial investment will be particularly hard hit, with almost no growth anticipated this year [1] Government Financial Planning - The bleak economic outlook poses challenges for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, whose fiscal plans are based on an anticipated economic growth of nearly 2% in 2026 [1] - The downward revision of economic expectations increases the risk that Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending to adhere to fiscal rules [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the economic challenges, the EY Item Club expects the Bank of England to maintain a gradual interest rate cut cycle, with the possibility of accelerating easing in the future [2] - However, it is warned that inflation rates are likely to remain above 3% for most of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that U.S. tariff measures will have significant negative impacts on the global economy, including the U.S. itself, with a notable reduction in economic growth forecasts for 2025 and rising inflation expectations [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 3.3% made in January, and below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000 to 2019 [1]. - The U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been revised down to 1.8%, a decrease of nearly 1 percentage point from the previous estimate of 2.7% [1]. - The U.S. economic growth for 2026 is expected to be 1.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from earlier predictions [1]. Inflation Expectations - The IMF predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to 3% this year, which is 1 percentage point higher than the forecast made in January [1][2]. Impact on Other Economies - The IMF forecasts that Mexico, as a major trading partner of the U.S., will experience the most severe economic impact, with a projected contraction of 0.3% this year [4]. - Japan's economic growth is expected to be 0.6%, down from a previous estimate of 1.1%, while Germany's growth is projected to be flat at 0.0% this year [4]. Risks and Uncertainties - The current economic outlook is dominated by increasing downside risks, with escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties potentially suppressing both short-term and long-term economic growth [4]. - The IMF has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 25% to 37% [4]. Potential for Improvement - The IMF's chief economist suggests that if current trade policies are paused and new trade agreements are reached, the global economic growth outlook could improve immediately [5].

消息人士：德国经济研究所将2025年的增长预测下调至0.1% 金十数据4月8日讯，两位消息人士表示，德国经济机构已将今年的经济增长预期从去年9月份的0.8%下 调至0.1%，并补充说，这一修正尚未包括美国宣布的最新关税。德国是G7集团中唯一在过去两年未能 实现增长的经济体。特朗普宣布的关税将对欧洲最大的经济体造成重大打击，可能使其进入历史上第一 次连续三年衰退的轨道。二月大选后，由候任总理默茨领导的保守党和正在协商组建政府的社民党宣布 了一项5000亿欧元的基础设施基金，并对借贷规则进行全面改革，以加强国防和重振经济增长。 ...

消息人士：德国经济研究机构将2025年的增长预期从去年9月份的0.8%下调至0.1% 。 ...

摩根大通下调韩国2025年经济增长预期至0.7% 金十数据4月8日讯，美国提高对韩国的关税促使摩根大通在一周内两次下调对韩国的增长预测。上周， 摩根大通经济学家Seok Gil Park将韩国2025年GDP增长预期从1.2%下调至0.9%，目前已下调至0.7%。 Park预计，考虑到美国关税的增加和下半年美国经济可能出现衰退，韩国的实际出口在2025年剩余时间 内将出现季度环比收缩。他预计韩国央行将大幅放松货币政策，除了财政刺激措施外，还可能从4月份 开始再降息五次，以支持经济。 ...