Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in January fell below the growth line, indicating a decline in economic activity and a need for stronger foundational support for economic recovery [3][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [5]. - The new orders index dropped to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of market demand [5]. - Seasonal factors and changes in the export environment are contributing to the slowdown in market demand, with the new export orders index at 47.8%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points [5][7]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, despite a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, suggesting continued overall expansion in manufacturing [7]. - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, indicating an improvement in overall price levels in the manufacturing market [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector [10]. - The service sector remains relatively stable, with the business activity index slightly decreasing by 0.2 percentage points, maintaining around 49.5% [10][11]. - The service industry anticipates a boost from the upcoming Spring Festival, with a business activity expectation index of 57.1%, indicating optimism for consumer-related services [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is expected to be influenced by changes in export growth, the domestic real estate market, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [8]. - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to gain momentum [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January, indicating a slowdown in economic activity, while also highlighting positive signals in price indices and the expansion of new economic drivers [2][3][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In January, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [3]. - The decline is attributed to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand, with various sub-indices showing mixed results [3]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose to 56.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since June 2024 [4]. - The factory price index increased to 50.6%, rising 1.7 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after 19 months below 50% [4]. - Over 34% of manufacturing enterprises reported a decline in profits, highlighting concerns regarding profitability [5]. New Economic Drivers - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.0%, remaining above 52.0 for two consecutive months, indicating a positive trend in related industries [6]. - The equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, also within the expansion range, suggesting stable growth in this sector [6]. - The production and business activity expectation index was at 52.6%, indicating optimistic expectations among enterprises [7]. - Industries such as food processing and beverages showed strong confidence, with their activity expectation indices above 56.0% for two consecutive months [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in the construction sector [9]. - The construction business activity index fell to 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting a significant decline in construction activity [9]. - The service sector remained relatively stable, with the service business activity index slightly decreasing by 0.2 percentage points, maintaining around 49.5% for three consecutive months [9]. - The financial sector showed notable improvement, with the financial business activity index exceeding 65%, indicating strong support for the real economy [10].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a tightening in market demand while production continues to expand [1][5] - The production index stood at 50.6%, remaining above the critical point, suggesting ongoing expansion in manufacturing production despite a decline in new orders index to 49.2% [5][6] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was recorded at 52.0%, indicating a sustained positive trend, while equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, also in the expansion zone [7] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was reported at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a general decline in non-manufacturing sector activity [3][8] - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.5%, with financial services and capital market services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector dropped below 40.0% [8] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 48.8%, a significant decrease of 4.0 percentage points, indicating a notable decline in construction activity [8] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was at 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in overall business activities [3][9] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI, recorded at 50.6% and 49.4% respectively [9]

——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2026年1月中国采购经理指数 2026年1月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 1月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和 49.8%，比上月下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所下降，生产继续保持扩张 1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业PMI为49.3%，景气水平较 上月下降。 (一)企业生产继续扩张。生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%， 市场需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均 高于56.0%，产需释放较快；石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、汽车等行业两个指数均低于临界点，相关行业 市场需求放缓，企业生产有所回落。 1月份中国采购经理指数有所回落 (四)高技术制造业持续领跑。高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分 点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于 临界点。 生产指数为50.6%，比上月下降1.1个百分点，仍高于临界点，表明制造业生产活动保持扩张。 新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降1.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所放缓。 原材料库存指数为47.4%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 从业人员指数为48.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度略有回落。 供应商配送时间指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，仍高于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节 ...

1月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份，综合PMI产出指数为 49.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月有所放缓。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21% after the New Year's Day. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited. It was expected that the upward space of plastic in the near future was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 9th, the plastic operating rate was around 87%. After the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was out of the peak season, and its orders continued to decline, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, 700,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) were put into production. It was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited, and the upward space was limited. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,602 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,685 yuan/ton, and closed at 6,674 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, up 0.17%. The position decreased by 14,010 lots to 491,289 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with a price range of - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,500 - 6,770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,650 - 9,110 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,750 - 8,340 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate was around 87%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after eight consecutive months below 50% [1] - The production and business activity expectation index for December is at 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, the highest since April 2024 [1] - The new orders index for December is at 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone after five months below 50% [1] Group 2 - The new export orders index for December is at 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, indicating stable development in manufacturing exports [1] - The production index for December is at 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points, showing significant growth in manufacturing activity [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is reported at 52.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, indicating a notable acceleration in expansion [1] Group 3 - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 50.4%, up 1 percentage point, with the production index exceeding 52% and the new orders index exceeding 51%, reflecting good expansion in the consumer goods manufacturing market [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December is at 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The composite PMI output index for December is at 50.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China showed signs of recovery in December 2025, with key indices rising above the expansion threshold, indicating improved economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking the first time it entered the expansion zone since April [1]. - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [1]. - The production index and new orders index were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating positive growth trends [3]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both recorded PMIs of 50.4%, rising by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively [3]. - The procurement activity accelerated with a procurement volume index of 51.1%, entering the expansion zone [2]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [4]. - The new orders index for non-manufacturing rose to 47.3%, up 1.6 percentage points, reaching the highest level this year [4]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 56.5%, reflecting a continuous increase for three months, indicating rising market confidence [4]. - The construction industry saw a significant improvement, with the business activity index at 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. Composite Index - The Composite PMI Output Index reached 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point, indicating overall expansion in production and operational activities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, as indicated by the rise in manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index, all entering the expansion zone in December [1][3]. Manufacturing PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking its first rise above 50% after eight consecutive months [3]. - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, new export orders index, backlog orders index, finished goods inventory index, purchasing volume index, ex-factory price index, raw materials inventory index, supplier delivery time index, and production and business activity expectation index all showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 2.4 percentage points [3]. - The new orders index rose above the critical point for the first time since the second half of the year, indicating a positive trend in market expectations [3]. Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating a favorable growth trend [4]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both recorded PMIs of 50.4%, rising by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points respectively, also entering the expansion zone [4]. - High-energy-consuming industries had a PMI of 48.9%, up 0.5 percentage points, continuing to show recovery [4]. Financial Sector Activity - The financial sector's business activity index and new orders index both rose for two consecutive months, exceeding 60%, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy [6]. - The construction industry business activity index increased to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, ending a four-month period below 50% [6]. Business Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index reached 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, the highest since April 2024 [8]. - The service industry business activity expectation index rose to 56.4%, up 0.5 percentage points, while construction firms maintained optimistic market expectations with their index above 57% for two consecutive months [8]. Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to average 49.6% in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with December's rise indicating a positive end to the year and a solid foundation for the new year [9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides strategic direction for economic and social development, with recent policy signals and the Central Economic Work Conference outlining clear deployments for 2026, which are expected to inject momentum into macroeconomic development [9].