2025年9月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 （二）小型企业PMI回升。大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，持续高于临界点，保持平 稳扩张态势；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，景气水平基本平稳；小型企业PMI为 48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 （一）服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看， 邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区 间，业务总量保持较快增长；同时，受暑期效应消退影响，与居民出行消费密切相关的餐饮、文化体育 娱乐等行业商务活动指数落至临界点以下。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为56.3%，今年以来始终 位于55.0%以上较高景气区间，表明服务业企业对行业发展预期稳定乐观。 （二）建筑业商务活动指数小幅回升。建筑业商务活动指数为49.3%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，建筑业 景气水平小幅回升。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为52. ...

从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点， 新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。 9月份，综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，持续高于临界点，表明我国企业生产经 营活动总体扩张继续加快。 （原标题：国家统计局：9月制造业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点） 经济观察网 9月30日，国家统计局公布2025年9月中国采购经理指数运行情况。9月份，制造业采购经理 指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为48.8%， 比上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，仍低于临界 点。 ...

9月30日，国家统计局发布数据，9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分 点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上 升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。 ...

9月30日，国家统计局发布数据，9 月份，制造业采购经 理指数 （ PMI ） 为 49.8% ，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点；非制造业商务活 动指数为 50.0% ，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点；综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.6% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略 有加快。 ...

一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比 上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，仍低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订 单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。 生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张加快。 新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平继续改善。 原材料库存指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。 从业人员指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） | | PMI | 生产 | ...

（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局9月30日消息，9月份，综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，持续高于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体扩张继续加快。 ...

9月份制造业采购经理指数继续回升 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年9月中国采购经理指数 （三）三大重点行业较快扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.9%、51.6%和 50.6%，均明显高于制造业总体，同时上述重点行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于扩张区间，企业供需 两端较为活跃；高耗能行业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降0.7个百分点。 （四）市场预期持续改善。生产经营活动预期指数为54.1%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续三个月回 升，表明制造业企业对近期市场发展预期向好。从行业看，农副食品加工、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设 备等行业生产经营活动预期指数均位于57.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展信心较强。 二、非制造业商务活动指数位于临界点 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。 （一）服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看， 邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区 间，业务总量保持较快 ...

Demand-Side Analysis - In August, the growth rate of cyclical demand dropped to 2.2%, significantly lower than the nominal GDP growth rate of Q2, indicating a potential need for policy support[3] - The composite PMI output index averaged 50.3% in July and August, suggesting a possible policy response if it continues to decline in September[3] Policy Direction - Current low inflation suggests that policy measures should focus on boosting terminal demand without increasing future industrial supply[4] - Possible directions include promoting service consumption and advancing major projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Economic Data Overview - In August, industrial production growth was 5.2%, while the service sector's production index was 5.6%[5] - Retail sales growth year-on-year was 3.4%, down from 3.7% in the previous month[5] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, compared to a previous decline of 5.3%[5] Real Estate Sector - Real estate sales area decreased by 10.6% year-on-year in August, worsening from a 7.8% decline in July[5] - Real estate investment in August fell by 19.4% year-on-year, indicating ongoing sector challenges[5] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends[26] - CPI was down 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, indicating deflationary pressures[24]

Core Viewpoint - The necessity for policy reinforcement has increased due to declining economic indicators in August, particularly in demand and supply metrics, suggesting a potential need for counter-cyclical policy measures [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Trigger Conditions - Historical data indicates that policy reinforcement has been triggered four times since 2007 when cyclical demand faced downward pressure, with August's cyclical demand growth dropping to 2.2%, significantly below the nominal GDP growth of Q2 [4][11]. - The composite PMI output index has also shown five instances of policy reinforcement when it reached local lows, with the average for July and August at 50.3%. A further decline in September could indicate a similar need for policy action [4][11]. Group 2: Direction of Policy Reinforcement - Given the current low price levels, policy reinforcement should focus on stimulating terminal demand rather than increasing future industrial supply. Potential directions include promoting service consumption and pre-positioning major projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][13]. - The construction sector's order growth has historically been better in the first three years of a five-year plan, suggesting that major projects from the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan could be advanced [5][17]. - Service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining, education, and healthcare, requires enhancement, as evidenced by declining growth rates in these areas [5][21]. Group 3: August Economic Data Overview - In August, supply-side growth slowed, with industrial output growth at 5.2% and service sector production index at 5.6%. The GDP growth for Q3 is projected around 4.8% [6][27]. - On the demand side, retail sales growth was 3.4%, down from 3.7%, while exports fell to 4.4% from 7.2%. Real estate sales area decreased by 10.6%, and fixed asset investment saw a decline of 7.1% [6][27][28]. - Price metrics showed a slight recovery in housing prices, with second-hand home prices down 5.5% year-on-year, and PPI at -2.9% while CPI was -0.4% [27][28]. Group 4: Employment and Consumption - The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends, while the consumption sector saw a slight recovery in dining growth to 2.1% after lower rates in previous months [30][31]. - Retail sales growth for durable goods, particularly in home appliances, decreased significantly, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer spending [31]. Group 5: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector showed a slight decline in the prosperity index, with sales area down 10.6% year-on-year and investment growth at -19.9% [33][34]. - Funding sources for real estate also saw a decline, with domestic loans showing a slight increase, but personal mortgage loans dropped significantly [34]. Group 6: Industrial Growth Insights - Industrial output growth was recorded at 5.2%, with high-tech manufacturing showing strong performance, particularly in sectors like aircraft manufacturing and biopharmaceuticals [39][40]. - The overall manufacturing sector's growth was 5.7%, with consumer goods manufacturing expected to remain weak [40][45].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index for August stands at 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated production expansion [2] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, with notable performance in sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2] Group 2: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index is at 53.3%, and the factory price index is at 49.1%, both showing increases of 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, indicating a general improvement in market price levels [2] - Industries such as black metal smelting and metal products have seen their purchase and factory price indices rise above 52.0%, suggesting an overall increase in raw material procurement and product sales prices [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is reported at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4] - The service sector business activity index reaches a year-high of 50.5%, increasing by 0.5 percentage points, with strong growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4] - The business activity expectation index for services is at 57.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting optimistic market expectations among service sector enterprises [4] Group 4: Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.5%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices are reported at 50.8% and 50.3% respectively, suggesting stable expansion in both sectors [6] - Analysts predict that the economic recovery will continue into September and the fourth quarter, driven by stable demand and supportive policies [7]