研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨， | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部：智能网联汽车将形成万亿元级消费领域。 | | | | | 2、 中钢协：2025 年 11 月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值，比 10 月上涨 78 元。 | | | | | 3、重庆：支持使用专项债券收回收购符合条件的存量闲置土地。 | | | | | 4、全联冶金商会会长龚盛强调，在全球贸易壁垒加剧、传统需求收缩的情况下， | | | | | 必须苦练内功创新发展，以自身的确定性应对外部的不确定性。民营钢铁企业要加 | | | | | 大研发投入，突破关键技术；推进智能化改造，提升生产效率；深化绿色化发展， | | | | | 构建绿色制造体系。 | | | | | 5、国家统计局数据显示，11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro data shows that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission will promote work to manage price disorderly competition [1]. - The fundamental data indicates that last week, the output of rebar was 2.06 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the apparent demand was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil was 3.19 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. Overall, the industrial data last week was weak, with the output of the five major steel products increasing, the apparent demand remaining weak, and inventory continuing to decline [1]. - Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, inventory reduction provides support, but costs are weakening. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3110 | 21 | 0.68% | 6312460 | 2463988 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3302 | 7 | 0.21% | 1917388 | 876319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | 1179508 | 414346 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1067.0 | - 29.5 | - 2.69% | 5442929 | 862195 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1574.5 | - 58.0 | - 3.55% | 122587 | 48293 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating rebound. Steel inventory continued to decline, with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply contracted, leading to a rebound in futures prices, but the terminal market remained weak, with significant upward pressure [4]. - In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2950 (unchanged) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+30) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (+10) Yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The deputy director of the Building Energy Efficiency and Technology Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that urban renewal should be given more prominence and the construction of "four good" aspects should be systematically promoted [9]. - In October, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars reached 2.25 million units, with a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month slight increase of 0.3%. Among them, the retail sales of new - energy narrow - sense passenger cars reached 1.288 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [9]. - From November 17th to November 23rd, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.9193 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 36.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% [9]. - Six departments issued an implementation plan, aiming to significantly optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, form 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots, and create a number of high - quality consumer goods [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on price disorderly competition cost identification. It will promote work to manage price disorderly competition and maintain a good market price order [9]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [9]. Relevant Charts - The content mainly includes charts related to the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [7][10][12]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, attributed to seasonal effects following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [4] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in construction activity [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that while the manufacturing PMI shows slight recovery, it remains below the critical line, indicating ongoing downward pressure on the economy [5] - There is an expectation for increased investment and consumption demand as year-end approaches, supported by policy measures and the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - The overall economic stability is contingent on the effective implementation of policies to boost market confidence and demand [6]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in non-manufacturing sentiment [1][4] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting overall economic stability [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.2%, with most sub-indices showing improvement, indicating a stabilization in production activities and a recovery in demand [2] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - The new export orders index rose to 47.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, suggesting a stabilization in export demand [2] - The purchasing price index for raw materials increased to 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating rising input costs [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, continuing to show growth for ten consecutive months [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, reflecting a slowdown primarily due to high base effects from the previous holiday season [4] - The service sector index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a decline in service-related activities [4] - Financial services and information services showed strong performance, with indices above 55%, indicating robust activity in these sectors [4] Enterprise Size Analysis - Small enterprises showed a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [3] - Medium-sized enterprises' PMI increased to 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating slight improvement [3] - Large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in sentiment [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the slight recovery in manufacturing PMI indicates improved market confidence, but caution that the index remains below the neutral line, highlighting ongoing economic pressures [5] - There is a call for enhanced macroeconomic policy measures to stimulate demand and support economic growth [5][6] - Anticipated policy support and year-end demand are expected to release investment and consumption-related needs, contributing to a stable economic finish for the year [6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The PMI for large enterprises is 49.3%, which is a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month and remains below the critical point; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises are 48.9% and 49.1%, reflecting increases of 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points respectively, but still below the critical point [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with the construction sector index at 49.6% (up 0.5 percentage points) and the service sector index at 49.5% (down 0.7 percentage points) [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive PMI output index for November is 49.7%, which is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China remains stable, with slight improvements in manufacturing and construction sectors, while non-manufacturing activities show signs of decline [1][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2% in November, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [1][3]. - The production index and new orders index were reported at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting recovery in both production and demand [6]. - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [2][6]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above the critical point at 50.1%, continuing its growth trend for ten consecutive months [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in the sector [9][12]. - The service sector's business activity index decreased to 49.5%, a drop of 0.7 percentage points, influenced by the end of holiday effects [13]. - The construction business activity index improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities [8][13]. Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 53.1%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market developments [7]. - The construction sector's business activity expectation index increased to 57.9%, suggesting a positive outlook for upcoming industry developments [13].

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stabilization in economic conditions [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in the non-manufacturing sector's economic activity [1][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in overall economic activity [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index and new orders index for November are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, indicating improvements in both production and demand [4] - Small enterprises showed a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, continuing its expansion for ten consecutive months [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, reflecting a decrease due to seasonal factors and a high base effect from the previous month [6][9] - The construction business activity index improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a recovery in the construction sector [10] - The business activity expectation index for the service industry is at 55.9%, indicating optimism despite a slight decrease from the previous month [10] Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for November is at 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [5] - Industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, as well as railway and aerospace equipment, have high expectation indices above 57.0%, indicating positive outlooks [5] - Analysts predict that the manufacturing sector will continue to stabilize and recover as various industries enter the year-end push phase [5]

2025年11月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 11月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比 上月下降0.6个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平 稳。 一、制造业采购经理指数小幅回升 11月份，制造业PMI升至49.2%，景气水平有所改善。 11月份制造业采购经理指数小幅回升 非制造业商务活动指数有所回落 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年11月中国采购经理指数 （四）市场预期稳中有升。生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业企业对近 期市场发展信心有所增强。从行业看，有色金属冶炼及压延加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经 营活动预期指数均位于57.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数有所回落 11月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，非制造业景气水平有所下降。 （一）服务业 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while the PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 48.9% and 49.1%, increasing by 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points respectively, all below the critical point [4] - The production index was at 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in manufacturing production [4] Group 2: Sub-indices of Manufacturing PMI - The new orders index was 49.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting an improvement in market demand for manufacturing [5] - The raw materials inventory index remained at 47.3%, indicating a continued decrease in the inventory of major raw materials [6] - The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in employment conditions within manufacturing [7] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight acceleration in the delivery times from suppliers [8] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In November, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [12] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, while the service industry index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points [15] Group 4: Sub-indices of Non-Manufacturing PMI - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [19] - The input prices index was 50.4%, up 1.0 percentage points, indicating an overall increase in input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [19] - The sales prices index was 49.1%, up 1.3 percentage points, still below the critical point, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices [19] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions [21] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [25]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China in October is reported at 49.0%, indicating a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to last month [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.0%, which is a decline of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1]