Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 1.26% increase in the week from May 19 to May 23, ranking it in the middle among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant rise of 5.58%, while industrial metals increased by 1.86% [1][14]. - The report highlights that tariff policies and a cooling U.S. Treasury auction have negatively impacted macroeconomic sentiment, leading to a weakening in industrial metals [1][24]. - Gold prices have surged due to deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions, with COMEX gold closing at $3,357.70 per ounce, a 4.75% increase week-on-week [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.26%, outperforming the index by 1.83 percentage points [14]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals led with a 5.58% increase, followed by industrial metals at 1.86%, while small metals and new materials declined [1][14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of May 23, LME copper was priced at $9,614 per ton, up 1.76% week-on-week. Supply remains tight due to mining incidents, but domestic smelting capacity is unaffected in the short term [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,466 per ton, down 0.62%. The supply side is impacted by the shutdown of bauxite mines in Guinea, leading to a significant rise in alumina prices [3][36]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc price increased by 0.78% to $2,713 per ton, while SHFE zinc fell by 1.27% to 22,215 yuan per ton. Zinc inventories decreased week-on-week [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin price decreased by 0.46% to $32,665 per ton, with mixed inventory changes observed [45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen significantly due to concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with a notable increase in both COMEX and SHFE gold prices [4][49]. - The report notes that the U.S. credit rating downgrade and a cooling Treasury auction have further weakened market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [4][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.26%, ranking it in the middle among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant rise of 5.58%, while industrial metals increased by 1.86% [1][14]. - The report highlights that tariff policies and a cooling U.S. Treasury auction have negatively impacted macroeconomic sentiment, leading to a weakening in industrial metals [1][24]. - Gold prices have surged due to deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions, with COMEX gold closing at $3,357.70 per ounce, a 4.75% increase week-on-week [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.26%, outperforming the index by 1.83 percentage points [14]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals led with a 5.58% increase, followed by industrial metals at 1.86%, while small metals and new materials declined [1][14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of May 23, LME copper was priced at $9,614 per ton, up 1.76% week-on-week. Supply remains tight due to mining incidents, but domestic smelting capacity is unaffected [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,466 per ton, down 0.62%. The supply side is impacted by the shutdown of bauxite mines in Guinea, leading to a significant rise in alumina prices [3][36]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc price increased by 0.78% to $2,713 per ton, with inventories decreasing [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin price fell by 0.46% to $32,665 per ton, with mixed inventory trends [45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen significantly due to concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with a notable increase in both COMEX and SHFE gold prices [4][49]. - The report notes that the U.S. credit rating downgrade and a lackluster Treasury auction have further weakened market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [51][49]. Rare Earths - The report indicates stable supply and moderate demand for rare earths, with prices showing a slight decline [4]. News Highlights - The report discusses the implications of U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on the market, particularly in relation to gold and industrial metals [4][51].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Treasury auction fell short of expectations, leading to increased safe-haven demand for gold, raising questions about whether the current pullback in gold prices represents an opportunity or a risk [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auction results were disappointing, which has contributed to a rise in safe-haven sentiment towards gold [1] - There is a noted weakening in buying interest for gold during the Asian trading session, prompting discussions on market dynamics [1] - Analysts are debating whether the current price retracement in gold is a buying opportunity or a signal of potential risk [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices were boosted by factors related to the weakening of the US dollar's credit, including the potential tax bill by the Trump administration and the results of US Treasury auctions [2][3]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit during the Trump administration is a positive factor for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai Gold, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold expected to trade in the range of 756 - 809 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver requires a clear dovish stance from the Federal Reserve to have strong upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with the main contract of Shanghai Silver expected to trade in the range of 7944 - 8380 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data 3.1 Price and Yield Data - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.92% to 777.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.86% to 8285.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.33% to 3324.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.12% to 33.69 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.58%, and the US dollar index was 99.64 [2]. - In the table of precious metal price data, prices of various gold and silver products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, etc., showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Data on Gold and Silver Contracts - For COMEX gold on May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3316.60 dollars/ounce, up 0.73% from the previous day; the trading volume was 22.61 million lots, up 2.09%; the open interest was 44.08 million lots, down 2.56% [6]. - For COMEX silver on May 21, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 33.58 dollars/ounce, up 0.95% from the previous day; the open interest was 13.83 million lots, down 1.43%; the inventory was 15570 tons, down 0.09% [6]. 3.3 Data on ETF Holdings - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 1.72 tons to 919.88 tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The holdings of SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 14054.89 tons [4]. 3.4 Spread Data - On May 21, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 31.1035 yuan/gram (7.96 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 0.14 yuan/gram (- 0.61 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 468.78 yuan/kilogram (2.02 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread for silver was 506.43 yuan/kilogram (2.19 dollars/ounce) [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market's risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, it is recommended to buy IF index long contracts on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [2][3][4]. - The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the deposit rate cut by large banks may lead to deposits flowing to non - banks. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold, and it is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and external policies, and different price trends and trading suggestions are presented [10][11][12]. - For energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, production, and inventory affect their prices, and corresponding trading strategies are given [34][38][40]. - For agricultural products, the prices are affected by factors such as production, supply and demand, and policies, and trading strategies are also proposed [51][52][53]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1173.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The margin trading balance increased by 2.254 billion yuan [2]. - **Macro News**: Shanghai will promote state - owned listed companies to improve market value management systems; many joint - stock banks cut deposit rates; Japan may accept US tariff cuts, and India and the US are discussing a trade agreement [2]. - **Valuation**: The price - earnings ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. are 12.65, 29.04, etc.; the price - to - book ratios are 1.32, 1.79, etc.; the dividend yields are 3.44%, 1.81%, etc. [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, buy IF index long contracts on dips [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The TL main contract fell 0.08%, the T main contract was flat, the TF main contract rose 0.03%, and the TS main contract rose 0.02% [5]. - **News**: China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the FTA 3.0 version. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 0.92%, Shanghai silver rose 0.86%, etc. [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper fluctuated, with LME copper down 0.71%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated and declined, with LME aluminum down 0.22%. The consumption season is light, and the price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for domestic aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc rose 0.76%. The zinc concentrate market is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [12]. - **Lead**: The price of lead rose 0.28%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price is strong [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the price is bearish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose 1.13%. The supply is expected to loosen, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate was flat. The supply and demand lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The reference range for the 2507 contract is 60400 - 61800 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.55%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to supply disturbances. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel rose 0.23%. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar rose 0.098%, and the price of hot - rolled coil rose 0.281%. The demand for plates and exports may strengthen marginally in the short term, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rose 0.48%. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass decreased, and the price of soda ash was flat. The glass price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The price of manganese silicon rose 0.24%, and the price of ferrosilicon fell 0.32%. It is recommended to wait and see for both, as the demand is expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon fell 0.94%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. It is recommended to have a neutral or bearish view and operate short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][37]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of WTI crude oil fell 2.04%, and the price of Brent crude oil fell 1.55%. It is considered that the oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol rose. The supply is weakening, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the anti - arbitrage opportunity [40]. - **Urea**: The price of urea rose. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on dips after a significant pullback [41]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The inventory is decreasing, and the price may be affected by supply and demand changes. Short - term risks need attention [43][44]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [45]. - **Para - xylene**: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [46]. - **Polyethylene**: The price of polyethylene was flat. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene**: The price of polypropylene rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is expected to be volatile and bearish [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price of hogs was stable. The short - term price may be stable, and the medium - term is bearish. It is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs was stable or decreased. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal was volatile. The short - term supply is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [53][55]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats was affected by multiple factors. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [56][58]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar oscillated. The international supply is improving, and the domestic price may weaken [59]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton rose. The market confidence is boosted, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [60][61].

美股上演"黑色星期三"。 当地时间周三，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌1.91%，纳指跌1.41%，标普500指数跌1.62%，大型科技股普跌，特斯拉、苹果跌超2%，微软、亚马逊、 英伟达跌超1%，谷歌逆势涨近3%。 热门中概股多数收跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.72%。 百度收跌4.2%，小马智行跌3.6%，百胜中国和房多多至多跌2.9%。理想则涨3.2%，小鹏涨 12.6%，文远知行涨21.3%。 根据美国财政部发布的结果显示，当地时间周三20年美债最终得标利率是5.047%，比上个月的4.810%高出了约24个基点，这是史上第二次得标利率超过 5%。较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2个基点，创下去年12月以来的最大尾部利差。 引发美股深度调整的关键因素，是当天美国国债拍卖表现疲软所引发的市场担忧情绪。 参考资料： 《20年期美债拍卖遇冷，美国股债汇应声齐跌》财联社 《20年期美债拍卖惨淡，得标利率突破5%，美债、美股盘中急跌》华尔街见闻 往期推荐 义乌老板催债，关税压垮的美国商人还不起1万美金 【 热门视频推荐 】 投标倍数也表现不佳，从4月份的2.63倍下滑至2.46倍，为2月份以来的最低水平，反映买 ...