Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issued a strong warning that the US dollar may begin a new round of decline following the release of the June non-farm payroll data on July 3 [1] - The dollar index has dropped 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance for the same period since 1973 [1] - A significant deterioration in the US job market could reinforce market expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy, further driving the dollar index down [1] Group 2 - The easing of international geopolitical risks and the reduction of domestic fiscal policy noise are weakening the dollar's long-standing role as a safe-haven currency [1] - Even if the non-farm data is not as bad as expected, multiple factors could still lead to a gradual decline in the dollar index [1] - A weaker dollar is expected to positively impact emerging markets, supporting arbitrage trading strategies and potentially strengthening Asian currencies like the renminbi [1] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials have recently adopted a more dovish tone regarding interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating the possibility of a cut in July if economic data supports it [3] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice by the end of 2025, with Treasury Secretary Yellen suggesting cuts could occur as early as September [3] - Other institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, also predict further declines in the dollar index due to rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The risk balance indicates that the US dollar may continue to decline, influenced by upcoming economic indicators and Federal Reserve communications [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the US core personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to impact the dollar's performance, with any reading below a month-on-month increase of 0.1% likely to negatively affect the dollar [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Communications - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Kashkari, Williams, and Harker, for signals regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Developments in US tariff policies may also trigger a new round of declines for the dollar, adding to the existing pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is facing further declines after hitting a three-year low, particularly if President Trump chooses a successor to Fed Chair Powell who is more inclined to lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - Mitsubishi UFJ's Lee Hardman indicates that a premature decision on Powell's successor could undermine the current Fed's policy-making [1] - Hardman suggests that a candidate perceived as willing to lower rates at Trump's request would exacerbate the dollar's current weakness [1] - The potential loss of investor confidence in the dollar is highlighted as a significant risk if the Fed's leadership changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell does not believe that the U.S. dollar is currently declining, stating that claims regarding this matter are premature and exaggerated [1] Group 1 - Powell's statement addresses concerns about the dollar's strength and its perceived decline in value [1] - The assertion that the dollar is falling is characterized as an overstatement, indicating confidence in the currency's stability [1] - The timing of such claims is deemed inappropriate, suggesting that the situation may not warrant alarm [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if the U.S. confirms involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, the dollar may decline due to potential impacts on oil prices and monetary policy [1] Group 1: U.S. Involvement in Conflict - Any U.S. intervention could accelerate the end of the conflict and reduce Iran's motivation to disrupt oil supply [1] - This intervention is expected to have a direct impact on oil prices, potentially leading to a decrease [1] Group 2: Impact on Dollar and Monetary Policy - Lower oil prices could provide justification for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates [1] - A decline in oil prices would negatively affect the trade conditions for the U.S. as a major oil producer [1]

Core Viewpoint - Notable investor Paul Tudor Jones predicts a decline in the US dollar over the next year due to a significant drop in short-term interest rates, estimating a potential decrease of 10% in the dollar's exchange rate compared to current levels [1] Group 1 - Jones anticipates that the yield curve will steepen, contributing to the expected depreciation of the dollar [1] - He suggests that by the end of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term next year, former President Trump may appoint a "super dove" to lead the Federal Reserve, aligning with his growth agenda [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks are strengthening their view that the US dollar will weaken further due to interest rate cuts, economic slowdown, and President Trump's trade and tax policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Predictions on Dollar Value - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar index will decline by approximately 9% to 91 by this time next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy head states that the dollar is expected to drop to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year [1] - Pioneer Investments anticipates a 10% depreciation of the Bloomberg Dollar Index within the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Currency Comparisons - Morgan Stanley suggests that the euro, yen, and Swiss franc will be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's decline [2] - The euro reached a five-week high against the dollar, peaking at 1.1450, with expectations to rise to around 1.25 next year [2] - The British pound is projected to strengthen from approximately 1.35 to 1.45 against the dollar due to "high carry" returns and lower trade risk [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a decline as US factory activity shrank for the third consecutive month [1] - Investors are reassessing their risk exposure to US assets, leading to increased hedging ratios, which may contribute to downward pressure on the dollar over the next 12 months [1] - Upcoming US labor market indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, will be closely monitored to gauge potential changes in Federal Reserve policy and its impact on the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in Hong Kong and A50 indices is attributed to multiple factors, including the reintroduction of U.S. steel tariffs, a general decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market, and warnings from Morgan Stanley regarding the U.S. dollar and economic conditions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Hong Kong stock market and A50 index experienced significant declines, with Hong Kong's drop exceeding 2.5% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region was negative, with major indices like the Hang Seng Tech Index and the National Enterprises Index falling nearly 3% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The reintroduction of U.S. tariffs on steel has raised concerns about global trade dynamics, contributing to market volatility [1]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicated potential weakness in the U.S. dollar due to interest rate cuts and sluggish economic growth, adding to market uncertainty [5]. - The presence of short-selling activities intensified the market's downward trend, as there were no substantial positive developments during the holiday period [5]. Group 3: Outlook for A-shares - A-shares are expected to open lower due to the negative sentiment from the Hong Kong and A50 declines, but a significant drop is not anticipated [7]. - Despite the expected weak performance, there may be support from mysterious funds aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing excessive declines [7]. - Positive influences from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, such as the central bank's 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operations, could provide support for A-shares [7].

荷兰国际：如果美国个人支出数据不及预期，美元可能下跌 金十数据5月30日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Chris Turner在一份报告中表示，如果美国个人消费支出数据 弱于预期，美元可能会下跌。接受《华尔街日报》调查的分析师预计，继3月份增长0.7%之后，4月份 个人支出将环比增长0.2%。市场还将关注PCE核心价格指数，这是美联储青睐的通胀指标。预计4月份 的环比增幅仅为0.1%。Turner说，这种温和的数据可能会增加美联储降息的压力。与此同时，特朗普总 统一再呼吁降低利率。荷兰国际预计，如果今晚数据令人失望，美元指数将跌至98.70附近。 ...

影响美元下跌的因素有很多，包括美国的经济政策、近期主权信用评级下调以及扩张性财政政策，这些 政策将加剧赤字压力。不过最根本的原因是人们对美国资产是否真正安全存疑。 业内人士表示，美元资产的吸引力下降是真实存在的，相比之下，人民币一直保持稳定走势。自4月2日 特朗普宣布关税以来，人民币兑美元汇率已升值1%。 在美国总统特朗普的新关税以及"新法案"的刺激下，美国不得不再次面临债务及赤字前景的担忧。与此 同时，人民币却在持久的贸易战依旧坚韧。 上周，美国众议院通过了一项长达1000多页的全面税收和支出法案，该法案包含一系列减税、削减和增 加支出的措施，其中包括一项将联邦债务上限提高4万亿美元的提议，这加剧了人们对美国债务水平可 持续性的担忧。 另有宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院预算模型的分析估计，该法案将使美国未来十年的初级赤字增加2.8万 亿美元。 周日，欧洲央行行长也指出，美元未来的主导地位仍不确定。 然而对于人民币的前景，分析师纷纷预测，未来人民币将保持稳定。 高盛周一发布了一份研究报告，其中指出——人民币每升值1%，在其他条件不变的情况下，人民币兑 美元升值可能推动中国股市上涨3%。 分析师表示："人民币兑美元汇 ...