来源：金融界AI电报 在美国非农就业报告于今日晚些时候发布前，亚洲货币兑美元在早盘交易中进入盘整。CBA的Carol Kong在研究报告中表示："我们预计非农就业人数低于预期的情况将持续，并令美元承压。"这位经济 学家兼外汇策略师指出，美国劳动力市场的进一步走软，加之通胀压力的缓解，可能会"鼓励"美联储在 今年再降息两次。 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储官员释放重磅政策信号。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）最新表示，美联储可能还需要进行1次或2次降息，以应对 美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。另外，美联储副主席杰斐逊也警告称，美国就业市场存在突然走弱的可能 性。 宏观数据方面，美国2026年1月就业与通胀报告都将在下周发布，或将给市场研判美联储政策趋势提供重 要参考。目前分析师对1月非农就业增长的预期集中在6万—8万区间，若低于这个数字将刺激降息预期升 温。据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概 率为76.8%。 美联储官员发声 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新的采访中表示，她认为美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以 应对美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。 她指出，当前美国劳动者处境艰难，因为物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会稀缺。 "在利率问题上，我认为我们必须保持开放的态度，非常开放的态度。" 戴利于当地时间2月6日在接受媒 体采访时表示。这是她自上月底美联储维持利率不变以来首次接受采访 ...

进入 2026 年，市场对美国经济的判断正在悄然发生变化。年初时，不少投资者还在讨论 "美国经济是否再度走强"" 降息是 不是被高估了 "，但随着一系列就业与劳动力数据陆续出炉，这种乐观预期开始被反复修正。 最新公布的 12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺数据，就是一个绕不开的关键信号。 阿萨交易学院分析师 Eden 指出，对于很多刚进行黄金交易入门学习的投资者来说，JOLTS 听起来并不如非农、CPI 那样 "耳熟"，但在美联储的政策框架中，它却是一个分量不轻的指标。这一次数据大幅不及预期，也让市场重新评估美国劳动 力市场的真实状态。 一、JOLTS 数据解读指南 JOLTS，全称是职位空缺与劳动力流动调查，它反映的不是已经发生的就业结果，而是企业 "愿不愿意招人"。从逻辑上 看，这个指标更偏向前瞻性。12 月美国职位空缺降至 654.2 万人，不仅显著低于市场预期，也刷新了五年多来的最低水 平。 同时，前一个月的数据被明显下修，意味着用工需求的回落并非偶发，而是延续性的变化。如果把时间拉长来看，这个变 化更加直观。2024 年底，美国职位空缺大约在 750 万左右，一年时间减少了近 100 万个岗位。相比疫情后 ...

The number of open jobs in the U.S. economy fell to just over 6.5 million in December from about 7.5 million at the end of 2024, evidence of how demand for workers has sputtered in an uneven labor market. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market is expected to start weakly in early 2026 but may gradually recover in the second half of the year due to stabilizing tariff policies and tax cuts from the Trump administration [2][3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% in early 2026, with the latest labor report indicating it has already reached 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years [3]. - The article highlights that the U.S. GDP is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2026, while inflation is expected to remain high at 2.7%, with a one-third probability of the economy entering a recession [4]. Group 2 - Artificial intelligence is identified as a key variable affecting the job market, with significant investments in AI technology not yet translating into job growth, leading to a slowdown in hiring in certain sectors [5]. - Despite the potential for AI to enhance productivity over time, there are warnings from experts about the risk of job displacement as AI technology advances [5]. - The article suggests that the combination of tax cuts, stable tariff policies, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could attract capital back to the U.S., creating strategic opportunities for Chinese companies amid labor shortages in the U.S. [6].

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, slightly above the market expectation of 205,000 but lower than the revised previous value of 210,000 [1] - The continuing jobless claims stood at 1.827 million, significantly below the market expectation of 1.86 million and the revised previous value of 1.865 million [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 206,250, revised up from 201,500 to 204,000, indicating a stable labor market within the range of 200,000 to 210,000 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Chairman Powell noting signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and a lack of significant changes in hiring activity, job vacancies, and wage growth [1] - The market is closely watching the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release on February 6, with expectations of a slight increase in new non-farm jobs from 50,000 in December to 70,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4% [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timely release of the non-farm employment report due to potential government shutdowns if a new funding bill is not passed by January 31 [2]

US applications for unemployment benefits declined modestly last week, signalling that the labour market remains resilient despite recent corporate layoff announcements and persistent economic uncertainty. Initial claims for jobless aid fell by 1,000 to 209,000 for the week ended Jan. 24, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday. ...

"美国通胀与劳动力市场或将释放大量矛盾信号，对美联储及其货币政策带来挑战。" 瑞银首席美国经 济学家Jonathan Pingle在接受记者专访时表示，美联储今年最大的政策驱动因素将是劳动力市场，目前 失业率仍处于略高水平，到年底大约维持在4.5%左右，这样的疲软程度足以支撑美联储今年实施两次 降息。无论新任美联储主席是谁，即使不立即降息，也会逐步推动利率下行。Pingle认为，关税传导效 应延缓了美国整体通胀下降的进程，上半年通胀将保持在高位，但2027年通胀有望回落。对于今年美国 股市前景，Pingle持相对乐观态度，预期今年依然会有不错表现。（21财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

Labor Market Overview - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a rare phenomenon of simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand, leading to a cooling effect[12] - In 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by only 584,000, significantly lower than 2,012,000 in 2024 and 2,594,000 in 2023, marking the lowest level since 2010 excluding the pandemic[6] - The unemployment rate rose moderately from an average of 4.03% in 2024 to 4.24% in 2025, indicating a gradual increase rather than a sharp spike[6] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in December 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio fell from 1.09 at the end of 2024 to 0.92 in November 2025, reflecting a tighter labor market[9] - The PMI employment index for manufacturing dropped below 50, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery, reaching 52 in December 2025[16] Future Projections - The downward trend in the labor market is expected to continue into 2026, but the likelihood of a rapid deterioration leading to recession is low[29] - The average unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2026, up from 4.2% in 2025, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges[29] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 to mitigate labor market deterioration[29] Risks and Challenges - Risks include slow rate cuts potentially triggering a recession, prolonged inflation due to tariffs, and the effectiveness of policy stimulus falling short of expectations[29] - The labor force participation rate slightly declined from an average of 62.6% in 2024 to 62.4% in 2025, indicating reduced labor supply[14]

美国劳动力市场近期呈现复杂图景，最新数据显示美国失业救济申领人数微幅上升，但整体裁员规模依然维持在历史低位。劳工部周四公布，在截至一月十 七日的一周内，首次申领失业救济人数达到二十万，较前一周小幅增加一千人。尽管这一数字略有攀升，但仍低于市场预期，显示出美国就业市场具有一定 的缓冲韧性。 首次申领失业救济人数是观测裁员动态与市场健康度的关键实时指标。结合近期多项报告观察，美国就业增长整体呈现乏力态势。去年十二月，美国非农部 门新增就业岗位仅为五万个，与此前修正后的十一月数据基本持平。同时，失业率从百分之四点五微降至四点四，这是半年以来的首次下降。 美国一些大型企业近期的动向也印证了市场的调整。多家知名企业已先后宣布裁员计划，涵盖物流、汽车制造、科技与通信等行业。这些个案虽然尚未扭转 整体低裁员的局面，但预示着部分领域正面临结构性调整。 此外，反映更长期趋势的数据也提供了佐证。剔除短期波动的四周平均首次申领失业救济人数已有所下降。同时，持续申领失业救济的总人数在更早一周也 环比减少，这表明美国部分失业人员正在重新找到工作。 综上，凯德北京投资基金分析师认为，美国劳动力市场正处于一个微妙的平衡阶段。表面稳定的低失 ...