Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight declines on July 7, with market pressures leading to expectations of further drops, while gold prices also faced downward pressure due to anticipated declines [1] - The U.S. stock market reached record highs, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, and a strong employment report dampening hopes for interest rate cuts this month [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term easing [1] - Recent U.S. fiscal policy developments, including a tax cut and spending bill, are projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - Tariffs announced in April are set to be reinstated on August 1 for countries without trade agreements with the Trump administration, potentially impacting gold prices [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis points of easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even July due to political pressures [2] - The dual impact of rate cuts on gold prices is noted, where lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding gold, but rapid cuts could lead to inflationary pressures [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to changing rate cut expectations, while long-term support is expected from the Fed's easing stance [2] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [6] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [6] - Technical indicators for silver suggest a cautious trading environment, with recommendations for light positions and careful stop-loss settings [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions around $36.90 with a stop-loss at $37.30 and a take-profit target between $36.00 and $35.90 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years (from fiscal year 2025 to 2034) compared to the House version, intensifying the US fiscal balance pressure. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit [3][11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [3][12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries [3][14]. - From June 30 to July 5, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.75% week - on - week and decreased by 16.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.26% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline widened to 9.35%. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 5.23% year - on - year [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The Senate version of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the federal budget deficit by an additional $95 billion over 10 years compared to the House version. The Trump administration will mainly rely on tariffs and cuts in government discretionary spending to balance the deficit. After the bill passes, the US fiscal balance pressure increases, and there is uncertainty about future fiscal policies [11]. - If the Trump administration significantly raises tariffs, it may face more domestic resistance and cause greater inflation uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the US government's financing difficulties. The Fed may restart interest rate cuts in October after observing the impact of tariffs on inflation from June to August [12]. - In July, US tariff policies will reach two critical junctures. On July 9, the tariff grace - period for most trading partners expires. A significant tariff increase may benefit gold and harm US Treasuries, while a reduction in trade friction has the opposite effect. Around the end of July, the US Federal Appellate Court will hold a hearing on a tariff ruling. If the court does not support the Trump administration, it may increase concerns about US fiscal balance and harm US Treasuries. The risk of the US unilaterally escalating tariffs in the short - term is relatively high [14]. - The report provides week - on - week and year - on - year data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, energy, and metals, including the average wholesale price of pork, vegetable prices, and crude oil prices [17][18]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The document shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators through multiple charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [22]. Key High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents US and European high - frequency indicators through charts, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, and the data sources are mainly Wind, Bloomberg, and BOC Securities [77][80][81]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, and the data sources are mainly Wind and BOC Securities [90]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen through charts, and the data source is Wind [141][143].

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 7, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (Au) rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.16% to 8931.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.11% to 3346.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 37.14 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%, and the US dollar index was 96.99 [2]. - Au(T+D) closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, down 0.55% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8885.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.49%. London gold closed at 3331.90 dollars/ounce, down 0.01%, and London silver closed at 36.89 dollars/ounce, up 0.01%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.66 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to 14868.74 tons [5]. Group 2: Employment Data Analysis - In June 2025, the US added 147,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, the government employment sub - item in non - farm payrolls was as high as 73,000, much higher than the previous value of 7,000. The previously announced ADP employment population decreased by 33,000, lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Excluding the government employment sub - item, only the education and health services (adding 51,000) and construction (adding 15,000) sectors showed resilience, indicating a weakening labor market [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Expense - On July 3, 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act" proposed by Trump. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the act would increase the US fiscal deficit by 2.77 trillion dollars in the next ten fiscal years and raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, leading to greater debt issuance pressure in the second half of the year. As of May, the cumulative issuance of US Treasury bonds this year was only 281.3 billion dollars, a 56.1% year - on - year decrease. The US Treasury cash account balance was only 372.2 billion dollars, far below the recommended 850 billion dollars, creating a financing demand of nearly 500 billion dollars [3]. - The current average interest rate of US Treasury bonds is 3.294%, and the cumulative interest expense this year has reached 776 billion dollars. Net interest expense is the third - largest fiscal expenditure item after social security and medical insurance. If the US Treasury issues more bonds in a high - interest - rate environment, interest expenses will be difficult to control, increasing the deficit and squeezing other fiscal expenditure items, which is the reason for Trump's dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will give way to the sustainable development of US finance. Further monetary easing by the Fed in the second half of the year is certain. The Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting but show a more dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [4]. - In the context of the expected easing of Fed monetary policy, attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the expectation of loose US fiscal policy. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver futures contract is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 5: Market Data Tables - A table shows the closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and year - on - year changes of various precious metals, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, stock market indices, etc [5]. - Another table presents the key data of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily price increases or decreases, and historical quantiles in the past year [8]. - There is also a table about the internal and external price differences of gold and silver on July 4, 2025, including the prices of COMEX and domestic futures, exchange rates, and price differences [50].

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater believes that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation and economic growth has not fully manifested yet [1] Economic Impact - Some effects of tariffs are beginning to transmit along expected paths, but the impact on corporate investment due to tariff uncertainty remains relatively limited [1] - The U.S. economy is approaching full capacity, and fiscal policy may drag down growth in the short term [1] Fiscal Policy - Once budget measures like the "Build Back Better Act" are implemented, fiscal policy is expected to support the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The likelihood of significant adjustments in U.S. monetary policy in the near term is low, aligning with current market pricing [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that U.S. fiscal policy will develop along an unsustainable path for some time [1] Group 1 - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy is deemed unsustainable by the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to show weakness, with paper gold prices dipping to 750.72 CNY per gram and closing at 757.85 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily decline of 0.61% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June have plummeted, with the probability of a cut now at only 2.2%, and a 24% chance for July, leading traders to bet on a potential easing cycle starting in September [1][3] - Gold, as a low-interest-rate sensitive asset, has benefited from global central bank easing expectations, with a year-to-date increase of 26% and a historical high reached in April [3] Group 2 - The recent strong "hawkish" signals from the Federal Reserve pose significant challenges for gold bulls, especially after the U.S. consumer confidence index for May rose unexpectedly to 102, the highest in six months, reinforcing confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, particularly comments from former President Trump regarding a new tax bill, raises concerns about the sustainability of fiscal expansion, which could delay the Fed's rate cut timeline and exert further pressure on gold [3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including the revised Q1 GDP and April core PCE price index, are critical for market observation, as resilient economic data and unexpected inflation readings could further reduce rate cut expectations and increase gold price volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, paper gold is showing a downward trend, with key resistance identified in the 785-795 CNY per gram range and significant support at 730-740 CNY per gram; a breach of this support could lead to further declines [4] - The market is currently in a phase of "economic data validation" and "policy expectation adjustment," with a focus on the marginal changes in inflation statements from Federal Reserve officials and whether core PCE data confirms a downward inflation trend [5] - Until the timing of rate cuts becomes clearer, gold is likely to experience high volatility at elevated levels, suggesting that investment opportunities should be timed with both technical and fundamental alignment [5]

Group 1 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced market concerns over international trade tensions, leading to a stronger US dollar and rising stock indices [1][2] - Gold prices fell to a new low of $3245.35 per ounce, marking a significant drop of over $30, as the market reacted positively to the easing of trade war fears [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts has contributed to the bearish sentiment in gold, with a low probability of cuts in June and July, but a higher likelihood in September [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with expectations of further declines towards the $3200-$3190 range [3][5] - The formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern suggests a confirmed short-term top for gold, reinforcing the bearish outlook [5] - Investment strategies recommend short positions on gold during rebounds, with specific price levels identified for entry and exit [6]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's tax proposal, which has passed the House but faces challenges in the Senate due to rising U.S. debt and bond market concerns [1][9][10] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, indicating investor anxiety about the fiscal situation, which could lead to higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown [1][2][8] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating, highlighting that the country's economic strength is no longer sufficient to offset declining fiscal indicators, with debt projected to rise to 134% of GDP in the next decade [1][4][7] Group 2 - The tax bill includes new tax benefits for key political groups, but Republican senators are signaling a need for spending cuts to mitigate fiscal pain [1][10] - The demand for 20-year bonds was weak during a recent auction, reflecting growing investor concerns about U.S. fiscal health [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2029, U.S. debt will exceed 106% of GDP, marking a historical high [4][7] Group 3 - Republican leaders are under pressure to achieve a legislative victory before the midterm elections, with the tax bill seen as crucial for maintaining support [9][10] - The potential for increased interest payments due to rising yields could exacerbate the government's fiscal challenges [2][3] - The proposed increase in state and local tax deduction limits from $10,000 to $40,000 is a key negotiation point among Republicans [7]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has consistently emphasized that the U.S. fiscal path is "unsustainable," particularly regarding the federal deficit issue [1][3] - Powell stated that while the Federal Reserve does not have the authority to set fiscal policy, long-term fiscal policy will significantly impact the economy [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. AAA rating has heightened the urgency of the fiscal crisis, predicting a $4 trillion increase in deficits over the next decade if Congress extends the 2017 tax cuts [1] Group 2 - The White House and Congress remain calm in response to Moody's downgrade, with officials asserting that the debt issue is not a recent development [2] - The White House Economic Council Chair highlighted the importance of reducing the deficit, predicting that new tax legislation could lead to economic growth of 4.2%-5.2% annually over the next four years [2] - Powell did not comment on the downgrade but acknowledged that the rating's future impact on prices should not be overlooked [2] Group 3 - Powell suggested that policymakers should focus on mandatory spending areas like Medicare and Social Security rather than discretionary spending to address the fiscal issues [3] - He warned that an aging population will exacerbate the shrinking tax base and increasing welfare spending, making it crucial to address the long-term unsustainable budget deficit [3] - Powell's previous warnings about the expensive healthcare system and aging population are now manifesting in the form of credit rating downgrades [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a combination of rising inflation and slowing economic activity, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation in the U.S. will rise significantly starting in May, with an annual inflation rate potentially reaching 3.0-3.5% by year-end [1][2]. - The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has reduced the risk of a hard stop in trade flows, but the effective tariff rate remains high at 13%, compared to about 2% at the beginning of the year [2][5]. - The forecast indicates that inflation will precede a slowdown in economic activity, with core PCE inflation expected to rise month-over-month by 0.3% in May and 0.5% in June, July, and August [2][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Morgan Stanley maintains its outlook that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in 2025, as inflation is expected to deviate more from the Fed's 2.0% target than employment levels will from maximum employment [5]. - The Fed may begin to cut rates in March 2026, driven by a slowdown in economic activity and reduced labor demand, which could increase the unemployment rate [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - The recent budget proposal passed by the House of Representatives is projected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, with significant contributions from the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) [6]. - The analysis suggests that the fiscal stance will remain largely unchanged, with potential for higher deficits if certain tax cuts are not allowed to expire as scheduled [6].