Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that U.S. fiscal policy will develop along an unsustainable path for some time [1] Group 1 - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy is deemed unsustainable by the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to show weakness, with paper gold prices dipping to 750.72 CNY per gram and closing at 757.85 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily decline of 0.61% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June have plummeted, with the probability of a cut now at only 2.2%, and a 24% chance for July, leading traders to bet on a potential easing cycle starting in September [1][3] - Gold, as a low-interest-rate sensitive asset, has benefited from global central bank easing expectations, with a year-to-date increase of 26% and a historical high reached in April [3] Group 2 - The recent strong "hawkish" signals from the Federal Reserve pose significant challenges for gold bulls, especially after the U.S. consumer confidence index for May rose unexpectedly to 102, the highest in six months, reinforcing confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, particularly comments from former President Trump regarding a new tax bill, raises concerns about the sustainability of fiscal expansion, which could delay the Fed's rate cut timeline and exert further pressure on gold [3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including the revised Q1 GDP and April core PCE price index, are critical for market observation, as resilient economic data and unexpected inflation readings could further reduce rate cut expectations and increase gold price volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, paper gold is showing a downward trend, with key resistance identified in the 785-795 CNY per gram range and significant support at 730-740 CNY per gram; a breach of this support could lead to further declines [4] - The market is currently in a phase of "economic data validation" and "policy expectation adjustment," with a focus on the marginal changes in inflation statements from Federal Reserve officials and whether core PCE data confirms a downward inflation trend [5] - Until the timing of rate cuts becomes clearer, gold is likely to experience high volatility at elevated levels, suggesting that investment opportunities should be timed with both technical and fundamental alignment [5]

Group 1 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced market concerns over international trade tensions, leading to a stronger US dollar and rising stock indices [1][2] - Gold prices fell to a new low of $3245.35 per ounce, marking a significant drop of over $30, as the market reacted positively to the easing of trade war fears [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts has contributed to the bearish sentiment in gold, with a low probability of cuts in June and July, but a higher likelihood in September [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with expectations of further declines towards the $3200-$3190 range [3][5] - The formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern suggests a confirmed short-term top for gold, reinforcing the bearish outlook [5] - Investment strategies recommend short positions on gold during rebounds, with specific price levels identified for entry and exit [6]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's tax proposal, which has passed the House but faces challenges in the Senate due to rising U.S. debt and bond market concerns [1][9][10] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, indicating investor anxiety about the fiscal situation, which could lead to higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown [1][2][8] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating, highlighting that the country's economic strength is no longer sufficient to offset declining fiscal indicators, with debt projected to rise to 134% of GDP in the next decade [1][4][7] Group 2 - The tax bill includes new tax benefits for key political groups, but Republican senators are signaling a need for spending cuts to mitigate fiscal pain [1][10] - The demand for 20-year bonds was weak during a recent auction, reflecting growing investor concerns about U.S. fiscal health [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2029, U.S. debt will exceed 106% of GDP, marking a historical high [4][7] Group 3 - Republican leaders are under pressure to achieve a legislative victory before the midterm elections, with the tax bill seen as crucial for maintaining support [9][10] - The potential for increased interest payments due to rising yields could exacerbate the government's fiscal challenges [2][3] - The proposed increase in state and local tax deduction limits from $10,000 to $40,000 is a key negotiation point among Republicans [7]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has consistently emphasized that the U.S. fiscal path is "unsustainable," particularly regarding the federal deficit issue [1][3] - Powell stated that while the Federal Reserve does not have the authority to set fiscal policy, long-term fiscal policy will significantly impact the economy [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. AAA rating has heightened the urgency of the fiscal crisis, predicting a $4 trillion increase in deficits over the next decade if Congress extends the 2017 tax cuts [1] Group 2 - The White House and Congress remain calm in response to Moody's downgrade, with officials asserting that the debt issue is not a recent development [2] - The White House Economic Council Chair highlighted the importance of reducing the deficit, predicting that new tax legislation could lead to economic growth of 4.2%-5.2% annually over the next four years [2] - Powell did not comment on the downgrade but acknowledged that the rating's future impact on prices should not be overlooked [2] Group 3 - Powell suggested that policymakers should focus on mandatory spending areas like Medicare and Social Security rather than discretionary spending to address the fiscal issues [3] - He warned that an aging population will exacerbate the shrinking tax base and increasing welfare spending, making it crucial to address the long-term unsustainable budget deficit [3] - Powell's previous warnings about the expensive healthcare system and aging population are now manifesting in the form of credit rating downgrades [3]

在贸易企稳背景下，美国经济活动或呈现通胀先趋稳，经济活动后走弱，这或使美联储2025年维持观望。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在5月16日的报告中表示，中美贸易紧张局势近期虽有缓和，但美国通胀预计将从5月开始明显上升，全年通胀率可能升至 3.0-3.5%，这将迫使美联储在2025年保持利率不变。美国财政谈判进展表明财政立场将基本保持不变，缺乏大规模刺激措施。对投资者而言，这意味着美国 经济将进入低增长、高通胀的组合，资产定价需要适应"没有降息"的新现实。 大摩预计，在关税降至更易管理的水平后，高概率结果是通胀先行上升，经济活动后续走弱。关税尚未在通胀数据中显现，4月CPI报告显示总体和核心通 胀分别温和增长0.22%和0.24%，核心商品价格仅上涨0.1%。 然而展望未来，大摩预测关税将从5月开始明显推高通胀，并在此后加速。其对5月核心PCE通胀的月环比增长率预测为0.3%，6月、7月和8月分别为0.5%、 0.7%和0.5%。到年底，关税应该会推动年通胀率达到3.0-3.5%。 美联储2025年将按兵不动 商务部官方消息，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett issued a severe warning regarding the future of the US dollar, attributing potential devaluation to irresponsible fiscal policies by the US government [1][2]. Group 1: Concerns about the US Dollar - Buffett expressed that the current fiscal deficit model in the US is unsustainable and could erode the value of the dollar [2][11]. - He stated, "We would not want to hold any currency that we believe will significantly depreciate," indicating a shift in investment focus towards other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen [3][4]. - Buffett's comments reflect a broader concern about the potential for currency devaluation due to government actions, which he believes could lead to severe consequences [7][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Berkshire Hathaway has been adopting a more conservative investment strategy, having sold $134 billion worth of stocks in 2024 alone, including significant reductions in holdings of Apple and Bank of America [4]. - The company's cash reserves have reached a historic high of $347 billion, indicating a cautious approach in light of economic uncertainties [4]. - Buffett noted that managing currency risk is challenging and that the company would not take actions based solely on quarterly or annual earnings [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Buffett criticized the current fiscal policies, suggesting they could lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar, similar to historical precedents in other countries [7][10]. - He emphasized that the issues surrounding fiscal irresponsibility are not unique to the US but are a global concern, with many governments making decisions that could lead to currency devaluation [7][10]. - The lack of effective oversight and accountability in government fiscal management raises concerns about future governance and financial stability [9][14].

巴菲特：美国的财政政策是我最为担忧的问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway does not focus on the short-term impact of dollar earnings, indicating a long-term investment strategy [1] - The company's chairman, Warren Buffett, expressed concern about U.S. fiscal policy, highlighting it as a source of fear [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Company Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway prioritizes long-term investment over short-term dollar earnings [1] Economic Concerns - Warren Buffett identifies U.S. fiscal policy as a significant concern, suggesting potential implications for the broader economic environment [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that there may be announcements regarding India in the near future [1]