Group 1 - The recent extension of the tariff suspension by Trump for 90 days indicates a shift in the U.S. stance towards China, driven by domestic pressure and declining approval ratings [1][3] - A Pew Research Center survey shows that 61% of Americans oppose Trump's tariff policy, highlighting significant public discontent [1] - The U.S. business community is anxious about the implications of the trade war, emphasizing the need for long-term planning [1][3] Group 2 - On the same day as the U.S. announcement, China also decided to suspend additional tariffs on U.S. goods for 90 days, indicating a mutual understanding between the two nations [3] - The ongoing trade tensions have led to significant retaliatory measures, particularly from Canada, which has imposed tariffs on Chinese products in an attempt to align with U.S. policies [5][7] - China's recent actions against Canadian products, including a 75.8% deposit on canola seeds, reflect the consequences of Canada's alignment with U.S. tariffs [5][8] Group 3 - The global trade landscape is increasingly complex, with countries like Brazil and India also feeling the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have reached an average rate of 18.3%, the highest since 1934 [7] - The situation illustrates that relying on U.S. favor while undermining China's interests is a flawed strategy, as evidenced by Canada's current predicament [8] - The need for countries to establish their own positions in international trade is emphasized, as aligning too closely with U.S. policies can lead to negative repercussions [8]

Report Core Information Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report Core View - The report provides a weekly preview of hot topics, including important events and data releases that may impact the futures market, and analyzes the potential effects of these events on different types of futures prices [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - From June 24th to 27th, the 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing [2] - On June 24th at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee [2] - On June 26th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP [2] - On June 27th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the industrial enterprise profits for May [2] - On June 28th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index [2] This Week's Hot Topic Preview June 23rd - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. A slightly higher value may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [3] - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, with an expected value of 51.2 and a previous value of 52. A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [4] - The National Association of Realtors will release US May existing - home sales at 22:00. The expected annualized total is 3.97 million units (previous 4 million), and the expected monthly rate is - 1.3% (previous - 0.5%). Lower sales may suppress non - ferrous metals futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [5] June 24th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - June at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [8] - The 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from June 24th to 27th, with multiple draft laws on the agenda [9] - IFO will release Germany's June IFO business climate index at 16:00, with an expected value of 88.3 and a previous value of 87.5 [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee at 22:00 [11] - The Conference Board will release the US June consumer confidence index at 22:00, with an expected value of 99.8 and a previous value of 98. A higher value may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [12] - The 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos Forum) will be held from June 24th to 26th in Tianjin, with the theme of "Entrepreneurship in the New Era" [13] - The NATO Summit will be held from June 24th to 25th in The Hague, and Trump will attend [14] June 25th - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee at 22:00 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will release US May new - home sales at 22:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total is 692,000 units (previous 743,000), and the expected monthly rate is - 6.5% (previous 10.9%). Higher sales may boost non - ferrous metals futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [16] - EIA will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20th at 22:30. A continued significant decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [17] June 26th - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21st at 20:30, with an expected value of 245,000 (previous 245,000) [18] - The US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP at 20:30. The expected annualized quarterly rate of real GDP is - 0.2% [19] - The US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of the May durable goods orders at 20:30, with an expected monthly rate of 8.5% (previous - 6.3%). A significantly higher value may boost non - ferrous metals futures but suppress gold and silver futures [20] - The National Association of Realtors will release the US May seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0% (previous - 6.3%) [21] June 27th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's May industrial enterprise profits at 09:30. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to April was 1.4%, and in April it was 3% [22] - Eurostat will release the Eurozone's June economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index at 17:00. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.3 (previous 94.8), and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 9.8 (previous - 10.3) [24] June 28th - The US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index at 20:30. The expected annual rate of the PCE price index is 2.3% (previous 2.1%), and the expected annual rate of the core PCE price index is 2.6% (previous 2.5%). Slightly higher values may delay the expected start of Fed rate cuts from September to November or December [25] - The US Department of Commerce will release May consumer spending at 20:30. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.2%). A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of Sino-U.S. relations as a decisive factor for China's economic development, highlighting the historical context and future trends of the ongoing geopolitical rivalry [1][4]. Group 1: Sino-U.S. Relations - The recent phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S. conveyed positive signals, with both sides recognizing the outcomes of the Geneva economic talks and agreeing to continue implementing the consensus [2][3]. - Despite the temporary agreement, the U.S. has quickly resumed its confrontational stance in technology and education sectors, indicating that the trade conflict may not be resolved easily [5][6]. - The structural contradictions in the U.S. economy, particularly the decline of domestic manufacturing and the rise of multinational corporations, have fueled the trade tensions, which are seen as a long-term geopolitical necessity rather than purely ideological [7][8]. Group 2: Future Trends and Strategies - The ongoing trade war is evolving into a significant geopolitical struggle that will reshape global industrial patterns, presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses [16][20]. - Companies are encouraged to proactively adapt by refining their products and technologies to maintain competitiveness and exploring diversified market strategies to mitigate risks [17][18]. - Understanding the logic and future direction of Sino-U.S. relations will be crucial for businesses to navigate the complexities of the global market and identify new growth opportunities [15][19]. Group 3: Educational Initiatives - The "2025 Wu Xiaobo Lecture" series aims to help entrepreneurs understand the essence of current conflicts and future trends in Sino-U.S. relations, featuring insights from experts like Chen Gong [22][23]. - The lectures will cover historical contexts and the underlying logic of Sino-U.S. relations, providing a comprehensive view of the ongoing geopolitical dynamics [24][25].

Group 1 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced market concerns over international trade tensions, leading to a stronger US dollar and rising stock indices [1][2] - Gold prices fell to a new low of $3245.35 per ounce, marking a significant drop of over $30, as the market reacted positively to the easing of trade war fears [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts has contributed to the bearish sentiment in gold, with a low probability of cuts in June and July, but a higher likelihood in September [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with expectations of further declines towards the $3200-$3190 range [3][5] - The formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern suggests a confirmed short-term top for gold, reinforcing the bearish outlook [5] - Investment strategies recommend short positions on gold during rebounds, with specific price levels identified for entry and exit [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved significantly, leading to a cautious outlook on gold prices due to various economic factors and policy decisions [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Federal Court ruling against Trump's tariff policy has reduced concerns over international trade tensions, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures and a continuation of the downward trend in spot gold [3]. - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of a rate cut in June (2.2%) and a higher probability in September (60%), which has made gold bulls wary [3]. - Strong consumer confidence data has bolstered views on the robustness of the U.S. economy, leading to a decrease in pessimism regarding economic conditions and a reduction in gold's safe-haven demand [3]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold has formed a pattern of three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a weak short-term outlook, with key support levels at 3243 and 3214 [5]. - On the four-hour chart, gold is in a downtrend, currently in the fifth wave of a decline from 3365, with immediate support levels at 3243 and 3235, and resistance levels at 3280-3290 [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. and China are set to engage in substantial trade negotiations, with indications that the current 145% tariffs on China may be lowered in the future, reflecting a softening stance from both economic powers [1][3] - The U.S. government is under pressure to ensure that China lifts its export restrictions on rare earth materials essential for manufacturing, highlighting the urgency of the situation as supply chain disruptions loom [3][6] - The ongoing trade tensions and Trump's tariff policies are contributing to rising inflation and economic instability, leading to a lack of confidence in the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency [3][4] Group 2 - The Chinese government has decided to engage in talks with the U.S. after evaluating the global expectations, its own interests, and the calls from U.S. industries and consumers for a resolution [6][8] - China's position remains firm, emphasizing that it will protect its development interests and uphold international fairness and justice, while also calling for the U.S. to recognize the negative impacts of unilateral tariff measures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in supply chain dynamics due to escalating trade tensions, with retailers like Luke Therrien opting to bypass American middlemen and establish direct connections with Chinese suppliers, aiming for a more sustainable and cost-effective supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Changes - Retailers are increasingly seeking direct relationships with Chinese suppliers to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions [1][3]. - The shift to direct sourcing may lead to longer procurement times and logistical challenges, but it is seen as beneficial in the long run from a pricing perspective [1][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - U.S. tariffs and unpredictable trade policies have created chaos in the American market, leading to confusion among exporters regarding customs and tax obligations [3][4]. - Exporters who previously relied heavily on the U.S. market are now considering diversifying their markets due to the instability caused by U.S. trade policies [4][5]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Confidence - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as a trade currency remains significant, providing exporters with predictable payment methods, despite increasing risks [4][5]. - Recent economic turmoil and criticism of U.S. trade policies have shaken confidence in the dollar, with notable figures like Warren Buffett expressing concerns about investing in a currency perceived as unstable [5][6]. Group 4: China’s Response to Trade Tensions - China has taken a firm stance against U.S. unilateral tariff measures, emphasizing its commitment to defending its economic interests while remaining open to dialogue [6]. - The Chinese government has indicated a willingness to engage in discussions with the U.S. regarding tariff adjustments, reflecting a strategic approach to international trade relations [6].

Group 1 - The US-China trade war has escalated, with Trump claiming negotiations for 200 agreements, while US officials admit to misjudging China's response [1] - Despite claims of ongoing negotiations, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has dismissed the US narrative, indicating a lack of formal discussions [1] - The situation reflects a strategic miscalculation by the US, with both sides engaging in verbal exchanges as a form of communication [1] Group 2 - A-shares are facing pressure, with concerns about the market's performance during the upcoming holiday period [2] - The potential for significant adjustments in the overseas markets during the holiday could influence A-share trading strategies [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing international trade tensions and the current earnings reporting period [5] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index experienced minor gains [7] - The trading volume across both markets reached 1.2 trillion, indicating a slight increase in activity despite the overall cautious sentiment [7] - The market is characterized by short-term trading patterns, lacking sustained momentum due to external factors [5][7]

援引美联社的报道称，当地时间4月21日，加州大学经济学家巴里·艾肯格林发表声明称：关税战对美国经济最显著的影响之一就是美 元贬值，而美元贬值所带来最直观的影响就是投资者对唐纳德·特朗普所领导美国政府失去信心。 由于通货膨胀导致货币不断涨跌，艾肯格林认为近期美元的过度贬值正在引发一个国际性问题，那就是世界正在对美国丧失信心。 一名员工在韩 经济学家巴里·艾肯格林 国首尔的韩亚银行总部对 100 美元钞票进行分类 近几十年以来美国无论是共和党还是民主党执政，都将美元作为跨境贸易的避风港。因为在美国历届政府看来美元有助于保持美国 的借贷成本低廉，简单来说就是海外借贷随便放。而且因为世界货币由美国主导，使得华盛顿可以利用美元的影响力向海外投射美 国影响。 美国总统特朗普 全球对于美元的信任和依赖已经建立了半个世纪，这个时间说长也长说短也短，但目前美国在特朗普政府的带领下世界对美元的信 赖和依赖可能转眼间就会消失。目前很多投资者并不相信美元会很快失去全球储备货币的地位，但由于美元缓慢的贬值也会对他们 造成利益损失。 经济困境 就在本月月初的时候德意志银行就公布了一份报告称：美元的避险地位正在下降，还警告投资者未来可能存 ...