Core Viewpoint - The significant fluctuations in the Japanese yen against the US dollar in April have drawn market attention, primarily influenced by the US government's trade policies and economic data, leading to a historical high in net long positions for the yen [1][3][8]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - In April, the yen's exchange rate against the dollar fluctuated from approximately 149 yen to 139 yen, a movement of nearly 10 yen [1][8]. - As of May 1, the yen was trading around 143 yen to the dollar, showing a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - Leveraged funds and asset management firms have significantly increased their net long positions in the yen, reaching the highest level since data collection began in 1992 [1][3]. - As of April 22, speculative institutions held a net long position of approximately $157 billion in yen, marking a continuous increase over three weeks [3]. Impact of US Policies - The market is reacting to the US government's potential influence on the dollar's value, with concerns about the administration's desire to weaken the dollar [2][5]. - The US's announcement of high tariffs on trade partners has led to a temporary strengthening of the yen, which later reversed due to policy shifts from the Trump administration [6][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the yen has appreciated, the sustainability of this trend is uncertain, with potential volatility if the US reintroduces pressure on Japan regarding currency valuation [9][12]. - The current environment indicates a structural demand for selling yen, which could limit the currency's rebound potential [13].