针对美国将对日本征收25%关税问题，央视新闻报道称，日本首相石破茂表态强硬称"绝不妥协"！日本 首相石破茂表示，日本国内将团结一致守护国家利益，在不容妥协的事情上不会妥协，绝对不会牺牲日 本的农业。 新浪剛史警告称，日本现在处于更加不利的地位，可能被迫做出重大让步才能达成协议。随着本月参议 院选举临近，首相石破茂领导的自民党面临失去执政地位的风险，留给谈判的时间窗口正在缩小。 错失安倍外交遗产 新浪剛史在接受采访时表示，日本的顽固立场浪费了已故前首相安倍晋三的政治遗产。安倍在特朗普首 个总统任期内与其保持了良好关系。新浪剛史说道： 特朗普对日本抱有很高期望，因为安倍先生的缘故，他认为日本可以成为一个典范……我们 需要分析这种期望水平。 当特朗普对日本征收25%关税后，日本商界领袖罕见公开指责政府在对美贸易谈判中犯下"错误"，认为 坚持完全关税豁免的强硬立场让特朗普总统感到"被背叛"。 据媒体最新报道，三得利首席执行官、日本企业经营者协会会长新浪剛史（Takeshi Niinami）表示，如 果日本谈判代表展现更多灵活性，本可获得10%的基础关税，而非目前面临的25%惩罚性关税。 他批评日本"低估了特朗普的决心 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. The short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the logic of the Fed's rate - cut is brewing. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently. [5] - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%. International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed certain changes. For example, Comex gold rose 0.56% compared to the previous day. [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but economic recession and geopolitical risks remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed's rate - cut logic is brewing. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump is disappointed with the US - Japan trade negotiation and threatens to raise tariffs. [1] - **Monetary**: Powell said the Fed needs more data before cutting rates, not ruling out action in July. Market expects the next rate - cut in September, with a total rate - cut space of about 75 basis points in 2025. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D also changed. For example, Comex silver rose 1.50% compared to the previous day. [1][6] - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Capital and inventory factors affect the silver market. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 188.42 billion US dollars to 67134.58 billion US dollars. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. showed certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI was 4.50%, up 0.65% compared to the previous period. [10][11] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP growth rate decreased, and indicators such as unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and labor participation rate also changed. For example, the annualized year - on - year GDP was 1.90%, down 1.00% compared to the previous period. [11] - **Other Data**: Data on the US Treasury market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, etc. also showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.50%, up 1.21% compared to the previous day. [11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7%. [13]

美国总统特朗普1日表示，考虑将对日关税提高至30%或35%。日本政府尚未对此作出直接回应。日本官员2日说，希望谈判以"真诚的方式"进行，达成对双 方都有利的协议。 "不确定我们会达成协议" 美国单方面设定的7月9日这一同日本等国谈判的最后期限即将到来。 就美日正在进行的谈判，特朗普1日在总统专机"空军一号"上对记者说："我不确定我们会达成协议。我对此表示怀疑。" 特朗普形容日本"非常强硬""被惯坏了"。他表示，考虑进一步提高从日本进口商品的关税，可能增至30%或35%。 特朗普再次抱怨日本没有从美国进口足够的汽车、大米，称日本"占了我们三四十年的便宜"。 5月15日，在日本东京，行人通过东京站附近的一处人行横道。新华社记者贾浩成摄 日本官员：希望以"真诚的方式"推进谈判 据共同社报道，日本内阁官房副长官青木一彦2日在新闻发布会上表示，日本寻求通过正在进行的谈判与美国达成一项互利协议。 日本政府一直坚持将美方所谓"对等关税"和加征的汽车关税、钢铝关税等捆绑在一起进行谈判，要求美方全面取消这些不合理的关税措施。负责日美关税谈 判的日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正已多次赴美，与美方就关税问题进行谈判，但并未取得突破。据朝日 ...

前日本财务省财务官古泽满宏：日本是否真的能在与美国的贸易谈判中利用持有的巨额美债作为讨价还 价的工具是值得怀疑的。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meetings between the U.S. and Japan is the emphasis on the belief that exchange rates should be determined by the market, with current USD-JPY rates reflecting fundamentals [1][2] - Japan's Finance Minister Kato specifically denied discussing U.S. Treasury bonds during the meetings, aiming to alleviate market concerns about Japan potentially reducing its holdings of U.S. debt [1][6] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are stalled, primarily due to issues surrounding automobile tariffs, with Japan's Prime Minister expressing that no agreement can be reached without including the automotive sector [6][7] Group 2 - Following the news from the meetings, the Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, with a decline of up to 0.5%, reaching a level of 144.40, making it the worst performer among G10 currencies during early Asian trading [3] - The discussions are part of a broader context where the exchange rate issue has been a sensitive topic in U.S.-Japan economic relations, with past accusations from the Trump administration regarding Japan's manipulation of the yen [6] - Kato expressed regret over U.S. tariffs, stating that tariffs are not always an appropriate tool for addressing trade imbalances [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the Tokyo Stock Price Index (Topix) from 2775 to 2900 and adjusted the 2025 annual earnings growth forecast from -1% to 2% [1] - The adjustment by Goldman Sachs follows a strong upward trend in the Topix index, which has risen for 13 consecutive trading days as of May 13, after the US and China announced a temporary reduction in tariffs [1] - Foreign investors have increased their holdings in Japanese stocks for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak since February 16, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Major contributors to the rise in the Topix index include Japanese exporters like Toyota and Nintendo, with strong performance from bank stocks [2] - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to positively impact Japan's export economy, which has a significant reliance on these two countries [2] - There is a growing possibility of a trade agreement between Japan and the US due to the positive trade consensus between China and the US [2] Group 3 - Concerns have been raised about overly optimistic sentiment in the Japanese market, suggesting that market expectations may be ahead of actual developments [3]

日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：下一次美日贸易谈判的日程尚未设定。 ...

据报道，消息人士称，日本寻求在下周进行第三轮美日贸易谈判。 ...

金十数据5月15日讯，两名知情人士表示，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正最早可能于下周前往华盛顿，与 美国进行第三轮贸易谈判。他的访问日期不确定，将取决于两国在缩小工作人员层面谈判分歧方面能取 得多大进展。 消息人士称，日本正在考虑增加美国玉米和大豆的进口、造船技术合作、修改进口汽车 检验标准等一揽子方案，以获得美国的让步。双方能否消除在日本优先考虑的问题上的分歧还不确定。 日本的优先考虑是争取美国免除对汽车和汽车零部件的关税，因这些是日本出口型经济的支柱。 日本寻求在下周举行第三轮美日贸易谈判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rising 1.1% and the Nikkei 225 index increasing by 1.4%, marking the longest consecutive rise since August 2009 [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index has achieved a consecutive rise for 13 trading days, while the Nikkei 225 index has risen for four consecutive days [1] - The rebound in the Japanese stock market is attributed to the easing of global trade tensions, particularly the reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Reductions - According to JPMorgan's latest research, the easing of tariffs is expected to reduce the negative impact on Japanese corporate earnings to between -6.4% and -4.2% [4][6] - If U.S.-Japan negotiations lead to a reduction of tariffs on specific goods like automobiles to 10%, the negative impact could further decrease to -4.2% [6] - In a high tariff scenario, if the U.S. maintains high tariffs, the overall impact on Japanese corporate earnings could reach -10.9% [6][7] Group 3: Factors Driving Market Recovery - JPMorgan identifies three main factors driving the market recovery: stable U.S. economic data, progress in trade agreements, and potential easing of semiconductor technology export restrictions [5][10] - The market's performance is also supported by expectations of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, which are anticipated to conclude by mid-June or early July [10] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Despite the current strong trend, JPMorgan warns that global markets may face downward pressure in the summer, influenced by potential economic slowdowns [10][11] - The Japanese stock market is expected to be buoyed by trade negotiation outcomes and easing yen appreciation pressures, alongside ongoing corporate reforms [10]