Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation against the US dollar and other major currencies, driven by a combination of factors including delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, trade pressures from the US, and concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The yen has depreciated nearly 3% against the US dollar in July, breaking through multiple key levels from 144 to 149 [1]. - The yen has also reached near historical lows against the euro and Swiss franc, and has depreciated over 3% against the Chinese yuan since July 4 [1]. - The trading volume of bullish options for the dollar against the yen has surpassed that of bearish options by more than two times [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The depreciation of the yen is attributed to the Bank of Japan's delayed interest rate normalization, which has weakened market expectations for yen appreciation [2]. - The interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains historically high, with the US Federal Reserve's policy rate exceeding 4%, further pressuring the yen [2]. - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan have not yielded substantial progress, adding to uncertainties regarding Japan's economic outlook [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Ahead of the July 20 Senate elections, there are expectations that the election results may lead to additional fiscal stimulus, which has contributed to the selling of the yen [3]. - Japanese government bonds have seen a sell-off, with the 40-year bond yield rising by 17 basis points, indicating market concerns about fiscal stability [3]. - The combination of external and internal uncertainties is suppressing market bets on a rebound of the yen [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The yen is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, heavily influenced by the monetary policies of both the US and Japan [4]. - If the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts, the narrowing interest rate differential could provide critical support for the yen [4]. - Current market conditions suggest that while the dollar may experience weakness, the yen remains significantly undervalued, with potential for a rebound if trade negotiations progress positively [4][5].

执政联盟选情告急，民调数据正在持续恶化。根据日媒《每日新闻》和JNN在7月12-13日进行的在线调 查，执政联盟（自民党加公明党）预计将赢得31-55个席位，而维持参议院多数席位需要50席。 更令人担忧的是席位预测的下降趋势。据野村证券报告，日媒《Aera》6月30日版预测执政联盟将获得 54-58席，《文艺春秋》7月3日版将预测降至46席，而Senkyo Dot Com截至7月10日的预测为41-53席， 显示执政联盟的预期席位数随时间推移明显下滑。 一场可能重塑日本政治格局的选举正在逼近。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券7月14日发布的研究报告显示，距离日本参议院选举仅剩一周，执政联盟 失去多数席位的可能性正在日益增加。多项民调显示，执政联盟预期获得的席位数呈下降趋势，这一结 果可能导致石破茂首相辞职、美日贸易谈判暂停、加息预期减弱，并对日本股市和货币政策产生重大影 响。 首相辞职与谈判停摆可能性增加 野村证券在报告中指出，如果执政联盟保住了多数席位（≥50席），石破茂政权将得以延续，日美贸易 谈判将按计划推进至8月1日截止期限。但此情景可能加速日本央行加息步伐，推动日元升值并压制股 市。 据央视新闻，美东时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese business community criticizes the government for its rigid stance in trade negotiations with the U.S., which has led to the imposition of a 25% tariff on Japanese products, higher than the initially announced 24% [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japanese business leaders, including Suntory CEO Takeshi Niinami, argue that a more flexible approach could have resulted in a lower 10% base tariff instead of the current punitive 25% [1]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba maintains a hardline position, stating Japan will not compromise on its agricultural interests, despite warnings from business leaders about the potential need for significant concessions [1][3]. - The Japanese government has not authorized its trade representatives to make concessions on tariffs, insisting on a complete exemption based on the "special relationship" with the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Business Community Reactions - Niinami's criticism has resonated within the Japanese business sector, with former U.S. officials echoing concerns that Japan's demands for the complete removal of tariffs are unrealistic [3]. - There is significant pressure on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Ishiba, to protect key voter interests, such as automobile exporters and rice farmers, ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [3]. Group 3: Currency and Tariff Impact - Some Japanese executives believe that a weaker yen could help absorb the impact of tariffs, with one executive expressing willingness to accept an exchange rate of 145 yen to 1 dollar, compared to approximately 110 yen during Trump's first term [4][5]. - Despite the challenging situation, negotiations are ongoing, with Japanese representatives ready to travel to Washington for further discussions [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. The short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the logic of the Fed's rate - cut is brewing. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently. [5] - It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.47%. International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed certain changes. For example, Comex gold rose 0.56% compared to the previous day. [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased, but economic recession and geopolitical risks remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed's rate - cut logic is brewing. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump is disappointed with the US - Japan trade negotiation and threatens to raise tariffs. [1] - **Monetary**: Powell said the Fed needs more data before cutting rates, not ruling out action in July. Market expects the next rate - cut in September, with a total rate - cut space of about 75 basis points in 2025. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.83%. International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D also changed. For example, Comex silver rose 1.50% compared to the previous day. [1][6] - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Capital and inventory factors affect the silver market. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 188.42 billion US dollars to 67134.58 billion US dollars. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. showed certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI was 4.50%, up 0.65% compared to the previous period. [10][11] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP growth rate decreased, and indicators such as unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, and labor participation rate also changed. For example, the annualized year - on - year GDP was 1.90%, down 1.00% compared to the previous period. [11] - **Other Data**: Data on the US Treasury market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, etc. also showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.50%, up 1.21% compared to the previous day. [11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7%. [13]

美国总统特朗普1日表示，考虑将对日关税提高至30%或35%。日本政府尚未对此作出直接回应。日本官员2日说，希望谈判以"真诚的方式"进行，达成对双 方都有利的协议。 "不确定我们会达成协议" 美国单方面设定的7月9日这一同日本等国谈判的最后期限即将到来。 就美日正在进行的谈判，特朗普1日在总统专机"空军一号"上对记者说："我不确定我们会达成协议。我对此表示怀疑。" 特朗普形容日本"非常强硬""被惯坏了"。他表示，考虑进一步提高从日本进口商品的关税，可能增至30%或35%。 特朗普再次抱怨日本没有从美国进口足够的汽车、大米，称日本"占了我们三四十年的便宜"。 5月15日，在日本东京，行人通过东京站附近的一处人行横道。新华社记者贾浩成摄 日本官员：希望以"真诚的方式"推进谈判 据共同社报道，日本内阁官房副长官青木一彦2日在新闻发布会上表示，日本寻求通过正在进行的谈判与美国达成一项互利协议。 日本政府一直坚持将美方所谓"对等关税"和加征的汽车关税、钢铝关税等捆绑在一起进行谈判，要求美方全面取消这些不合理的关税措施。负责日美关税谈 判的日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正已多次赴美，与美方就关税问题进行谈判，但并未取得突破。据朝日 ...

前日本财务省财务官古泽满宏：日本是否真的能在与美国的贸易谈判中利用持有的巨额美债作为讨价还 价的工具是值得怀疑的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest round of trade negotiations between Japan and the Trump administration has made progress, with a potential agreement expected as early as June [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryo, indicated that there has been progress in the tariff negotiations with the U.S. government [1] - A meeting is scheduled for June 15-17 before the G7 summit, where further discussions will take place [1] Group 2: Key Meetings - Akizawa Ryo met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross in Washington [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. President Trump are expected to hold talks during the G7 summit [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meetings between the U.S. and Japan is the emphasis on the belief that exchange rates should be determined by the market, with current USD-JPY rates reflecting fundamentals [1][2] - Japan's Finance Minister Kato specifically denied discussing U.S. Treasury bonds during the meetings, aiming to alleviate market concerns about Japan potentially reducing its holdings of U.S. debt [1][6] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are stalled, primarily due to issues surrounding automobile tariffs, with Japan's Prime Minister expressing that no agreement can be reached without including the automotive sector [6][7] Group 2 - Following the news from the meetings, the Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, with a decline of up to 0.5%, reaching a level of 144.40, making it the worst performer among G10 currencies during early Asian trading [3] - The discussions are part of a broader context where the exchange rate issue has been a sensitive topic in U.S.-Japan economic relations, with past accusations from the Trump administration regarding Japan's manipulation of the yen [6] - Kato expressed regret over U.S. tariffs, stating that tariffs are not always an appropriate tool for addressing trade imbalances [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the Tokyo Stock Price Index (Topix) from 2775 to 2900 and adjusted the 2025 annual earnings growth forecast from -1% to 2% [1] - The adjustment by Goldman Sachs follows a strong upward trend in the Topix index, which has risen for 13 consecutive trading days as of May 13, after the US and China announced a temporary reduction in tariffs [1] - Foreign investors have increased their holdings in Japanese stocks for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak since February 16, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Major contributors to the rise in the Topix index include Japanese exporters like Toyota and Nintendo, with strong performance from bank stocks [2] - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to positively impact Japan's export economy, which has a significant reliance on these two countries [2] - There is a growing possibility of a trade agreement between Japan and the US due to the positive trade consensus between China and the US [2] Group 3 - Concerns have been raised about overly optimistic sentiment in the Japanese market, suggesting that market expectations may be ahead of actual developments [3]

日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：下一次美日贸易谈判的日程尚未设定。 ...