Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's chief economist Michael Feroli's team now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, revising their previous forecast of a delay until January [1][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - JPMorgan indicates that comments from key Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President John Williams, have prompted a reassessment of the rate cut timeline [1] - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December has risen to nearly 90%, significantly up from less than 30% a week prior [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Williams noted that as the labor market cools, the downside risks to employment have increased, while the upside risks to inflation have diminished, suggesting room for further rate cuts in the near term [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 9 and 10, with JPMorgan predicting rate cuts in both December and January [1]

Group 1 - UBS Wealth Management's Director of Investment Office, Dominic Schnider, anticipates accelerated global economic growth next year, leading to a favorable outlook for commodities, particularly energy and grains, which are currently seen as undervalued [1] - Despite the positive outlook for commodities, gold prices have surged and are expected to remain a key investment, with projections of approximately $4,500 per ounce next year, potentially dropping to $4,300 by Q4 [1] - The impact of previous central bank rate cuts is expected to manifest gradually next year, especially in Europe, with an overall improvement in economic conditions anticipated [1] Group 2 - The dollar is expected to experience a modest decline next year, but optimism may return as policy rates approach neutral levels, stabilizing in the second half of the year [2] - The Chinese yuan is projected to strengthen, driven by clearer trade prospects and improved corporate earnings, with the possibility of reaching or exceeding 7 against the dollar in the first half of next year [2] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $65 and $70 per barrel, as supply growth outside OPEC slows down and demand may exceed expectations [2] - A supply gap in copper is anticipated to reach 400,000 tons, with prices potentially hitting $13,000 per ton by the end of next year if global economic growth accelerates [2]

Core Viewpoint - The mortgage rate index (MMI) in Hong Kong has decreased to 3.38% in October, reflecting a 14 basis point drop from the previous month after three consecutive months of increase [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Trends - The MMI, which indicates the actual interest rates available to new mortgage customers, reported a decrease of 14 basis points to 3.38% in October [1] - The average one-month HIBOR was reported at 3.5% in October, but banks in Hong Kong lowered their best lending rates by a total of 25 basis points in September and October, resulting in a new capped interest rate of 3.25% for new mortgage owners [1] - As of November 26, the one-month HIBOR was at 2.98%, and it is expected to fluctuate around the 3% level due to year-end factors [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The U.S. job market is deteriorating, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [2] - The future trajectory of HIBOR will depend on capital flows; if more funds flow into Hong Kong, HIBOR may challenge levels below 2%, potentially allowing mortgage owners to secure rates lower than the capped rate [2]

Group 1 - The market anticipates an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - There is speculation that Hassett is leading the competition to replace current Fed Chairman Powell, as per Trump's advisors and allies [2] - Traders have increased their bets on future rate cuts, reflecting a consensus expectation that Hassett will implement aggressive rate cuts as called for by President Trump [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of 11.1 billion HKD on Tuesday, with Alibaba (09988.HK) receiving the highest net inflow of 5.6 billion HKD, followed by Kuaishou (01024.HK) [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK) recorded the largest net outflow of 203 million HKD, followed by SMIC (00981.HK) [2]

Group 1 - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have cooled again [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $90,000 mark, reaching its lowest level since April of this year [1] - This decline has resulted in a loss of over 30% of Bitcoin's gains for the year [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, briefly fell below $93,000, reaching a low of $92,979, marking its lowest level since April 30, and erasing over 30% of its gains for the year [1] - According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has since rebounded from its low, currently trading at $95,764 [1] - Bitcoin's total market capitalization has plummeted by approximately $600 billion from its peak in October, following a significant drop after surpassing the $126,000 mark [1] - Analysts indicate that the decline in Bitcoin's value is linked to a cooling market expectation regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December, which has put pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will continue to adhere to the principle of "capital preservation first, long-term value enhancement" while managing the foreign exchange fund cautiously and flexibly [1] Group 1: Investment Environment - The investment environment is positively influenced by central bank monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and the surge in artificial intelligence [1] - Major asset classes performed well, with major stock market indices reaching new highs during the third quarter [1] - Hong Kong stocks benefited from capital inflows, rising approximately 12% in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Bond Market - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September, U.S. dollar bond yields remain high, providing decent interest income for the bond portfolio held by the foreign exchange fund [1] - The U.S. dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the third quarter, leading to some foreign exchange valuation adjustments for the foreign exchange fund's assets [1] - Overall, the foreign exchange fund recorded good investment income in the first nine months of 2025, with all major asset classes achieving positive returns [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The investment environment for the remainder of 2025 remains highly uncertain [1] - While further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may improve investment sentiment, concerns about the U.S. economic outlook will persist [1] - The impact of U.S. government trade policies, trade tensions, and fluctuating geopolitical situations on financial markets remains unpredictable [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently decided to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - The decision aligns with market expectations, but there is increasing division among committee members regarding economic outlook [1] - Chairman Powell emphasized that the next meeting's decision will depend on economic data, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have accelerated their decline due to increased uncertainty around interest rate cuts and weakened demand as a safe-haven asset amid U.S.-China trade negotiations [2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold's downward trend may continue, with the relative strength index (RSI) rising from an extreme oversold level of 28 to 36, but still below 50 [2] - Key resistance levels for gold are at $4041 and $4111, while a drop below the 200-day SMA around $3937 could increase selling pressure [2] Group 3: Silver Market - Silver prices have rebounded to $47.50 but remain in a challenging position due to lower industrial demand and speculative influences [3] - The price found support near the 50-day SMA at $45.5, and a breakout above $48 could attract selling pressure [3] - Short-term support is at $46.95, with a potential drop below this level leading to further declines towards $45.55 [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a post-deleveraging phase, with low activity in digital asset enterprises [3] - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations is helping to restore normal capital flows, and Solana (SOL) launched its first spot ETF with $800 million in inflows [3] - The upcoming "super earnings week" for tech stocks may also impact cryptocurrency-related stocks like Strategy and Coinbase, with a gradual recovery in market vitality expected [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the U.S. CPI in September showed a slight recovery year-on-year, but it was below market expectations. The core CPI experienced a slowdown month-on-month, primarily due to a drop in used car prices, while prices of imported goods rebounded significantly, reflecting ongoing tariff effects [1]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The inflation rebound was less than anticipated, leading the Federal Reserve to focus more on employment risks, with expectations of a potential rate cut in October or December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4% [1]. - The October CPI is likely to be suspended, and based on historical data from 2013, the first CPI data after a long hiatus may show significant deviations due to limited sample data, increasing uncertainty regarding the timing of rate cuts [1]. Banking System and Future Projections - As the banking system's reserves approach a reasonable level of abundance, the Federal Reserve may soon halt quantitative tightening (QT) [1]. - Looking ahead to next year, as economic growth stabilizes and inflation declines, the Federal Reserve may implement two additional rate cuts, with a year-end target for the federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% [1].

Core Insights - The Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index rebounded to its highest level of 44.5 in Q4 2025 after dropping to a 13-quarter low of 40.5 in Q3 2025, primarily driven by a significant recovery in the "Global Economy" sub-index, which increased by 12.0 points [1] - The overall business confidence among SMEs has shown a notable recovery, with all five sub-indices rising, particularly the "Global Economy" sub-index, which recorded a strong rebound to 32.6 [1][2] - Despite the positive trends, short-term challenges remain, as "Business Conditions" and "Profit Performance" indices are still around the low 40s, indicating ongoing concerns [1] Industry Performance - Among the 11 industries surveyed, all except the "Construction" sector saw increases, with significant gains in the "Real Estate," "Finance and Insurance," "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services," and "Retail" sectors [2] - 46% of SMEs expect raw material costs to rise, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in cost increase expectations [2] - 95% of SMEs plan to maintain or increase their investments this quarter, up by 3 percentage points from the last quarter, with 6% indicating they will increase their investment amounts [2] Trade and Market Outlook - The "Import and Export Trade and Wholesale" and "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services" sectors ranked lower in the industry index, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in trade relations, particularly between the US and China [2] - The cautious approach taken by both the UK and China is expected to have a positive impact on SMEs, as communication between the two parties continues [2][3] - Companies are likely to pursue overseas expansion to mitigate risks associated with unstable tariffs, supported by government funding to assist SMEs in entering international markets [3]