Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows. It also provides data on key agricultural products such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with information on livestock and macro - economic indicators both in the US and globally [1][3][7][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, and related products are presented. Price changes of major currencies are also provided [1]. - Information on futures - spot price differences (basis) for palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions, as well as CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [1]. 02 Spot Market No specific content provided. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气 -** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have low temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 2 - 6. The Midwest has good soil moisture with rain this week, and although there is high - temperature stress, the overall situation is favorable for crops [3][5]. - **国际供需 -** - Malaysian palm oil production from July 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while exports decreased by 8.53% [7]. - As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. The flowering and pod - setting rates are also reported [8]. - Brazilian soybean exports in the first four weeks of July 2025 increased by 12% compared to the daily average of July last year [9]. - Argentina reduced export withholding tax rates for various agricultural products [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index declined on Monday due to falling freight rates of all ship types [10]. - **国内供需 -** - On July 28, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 72% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil - mill operating rate rose [12]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils increased slightly, with palm oil inventory rising and soybean oil inventory falling [12]. - As of July 28, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports increased [13]. - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig - slaughtering enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28, there were price changes in major agricultural products in the wholesale market [14]. 04 Macro News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.6% [16]. - The US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index was 0.9, better than expected [16]. - The US Treasury increased its borrowing forecast for the third quarter by $453 billion [16]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28 [16]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, including tariff and investment details [16]. - The US will not extend the tariff - increase deadline on August 1, but Trump is ready to continue tariff negotiations [16]. - OPEC + is considering another production - increase action and will discuss September's production level on August 3 [17]. - **Domestic News** - On July 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted up, and the Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On July 28, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 18.351 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 23.813 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 5.461 billion yuan in stock - index futures. Details of fund flows for major futures varieties are provided [22][23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department, represented by Deputy Secretary Faulkender, is encouraging President Trump to broaden the selection pool for Federal Reserve officials [1] Group 2 - There is a growing sentiment that the high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve should be questioned [2]

Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst first half since 1973, but Bank of America suggests limited downside for the dollar in the second half of the year [1] - The analysis indicates that the dollar's price movements are no longer highly correlated with the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but there remains a +71% correlation with the market pricing of the Fed's 2025 interest rates during US trading hours [1] - If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates for the remainder of the year, it is expected to provide moderate support for the dollar during US trading hours [1] Group 2 - Asian investors have been the primary sellers of the dollar this year, but their motivation to sell may weaken as they await new catalysts for a bearish dollar trend [1] - In the European trading session, there is still significant room for dollar depreciation, which may require global stock markets to outperform US markets for this to occur [1] - Foreign investors' motivation to increase holdings in other currencies to hedge against dollar assets has diminished, despite global stock markets performing better than US markets in Q1 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump believes the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [1] - Trump claims that the high interest rates result in an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] - He argues that there is currently no inflation and that companies are flocking to the U.S., suggesting a need to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rates are perceived to be at least 3 percentage points too high, leading to significant financial losses for the U.S. economy due to increased refinancing costs [1] Group 1 - The annual loss attributed to each percentage point increase in refinancing costs is estimated at $360 billion [1] - There is a claim that there is no inflation currently affecting the economy [1] - Businesses are reportedly flocking to the U.S. market, indicating a positive sentiment towards the economic environment [1] Group 2 - A call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is emphasized, suggesting that a reduction could benefit the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump claims that the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high, resulting in an additional annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the United States [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rates are perceived to be excessively high by Trump [1] - The high interest rates are leading to increased refinancing costs for the U.S. government [1] - The additional annual cost attributed to these high rates is estimated at $360 billion [1]

Core Points - The recent passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" in the U.S. Congress reflects a significant shift towards austerity measures that disproportionately affect lower-income individuals and workers [4][10] - The act extends tax benefits for the wealthy while cutting food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor, indicating a regression to a more conservative societal structure reminiscent of the Cold War era [6][10][11] - The U.S. is facing a growing national debt, nearing $35 trillion, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually, prompting the need for spending cuts [9] Summary by Sections Legislative Changes - The "Big Beautiful Act" passed with a narrow vote of 218 to 214, with no Democratic votes in favor and only two Republicans opposing [4] - Key provisions include the extension of tax benefits for the wealthy and cuts to food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor [4][10] Economic Context - Over the past decade, average wage growth in the U.S. was around 3% annually before the pandemic, but real purchasing power has stagnated despite nominal increases of over 5% in recent years [6] - The wealth of the top 10% of Americans increased by over 15% in the past year, driven by stock market and real estate gains, while lower-income households have seen their savings diminish [7] Social Implications - The cuts to welfare programs, including a 4% reduction in food assistance and over 1% in children's health insurance subsidies, suggest a return to a society where the working poor must work harder for less support [10][11] - The current economic environment is characterized by a strong dollar and high interest rates, which may lead to further cuts in education and housing subsidies if fiscal pressures continue [13] Consumer Sentiment - Despite rising stock markets, consumer confidence remains low, with many Americans expecting negative economic conditions in the near future [15] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" indicates a prioritization of corporate interests and fiscal strength over the welfare of ordinary workers, raising concerns about the long-term societal impact [15][17]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a decline on June 19, opening at $3,392.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,395.71, a low of $3,347.48, and closing at $3,369.18 [1] News Highlights - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK's, with Europe increasingly willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Canada will adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 [3] Geopolitical Situation - Reports indicate that President Trump is cautious about bombing Iran, partly due to concerns that a regime change could lead to a situation similar to Libya. The decision on whether to participate in Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities has been postponed for two weeks [4] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 947.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 91.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 36.1%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 58.9% and 50 basis points at 5.0% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop to a low of $3,347 during the trading day. The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with short-term resistance levels identified [7] - The trading strategy suggests a cautious approach, maintaining a bearish outlook for short-term trading [8]

美国至6月18日美联储利率决定(上限)4.5%，前值4.50%。 ...