Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated that the final interest rate may stabilize around 3% and inflation is expected to decrease to 2%, which is a satisfactory outcome for the Fed [1] Group 1 - The potential stabilization of interest rates at approximately 3% suggests a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rate changes [1] - The anticipated decline in inflation to 2% may influence consumer spending and investment strategies across industries, as lower inflation typically supports economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House trade advisor Navarro claims that the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at least 100 basis points higher than normal levels [1] Group 1 - Navarro's statement indicates a significant deviation from typical interest rate levels, suggesting potential implications for economic growth and investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's comments highlight a perception that the Federal Reserve's interest rate actions are often delayed [1] - The U.S. stock market is currently at its historical best levels, indicating strong market performance [1] - There is a noted decrease in inflation, which is contributing to the rise in the stock market [1] Group 2 - Republican unity is emphasized to prevent a government shutdown due to budgetary issues [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategists argue that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's assertion regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rates being over one percentage point higher than appropriate levels is incorrect [1] Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Yellen previously stated that "any model" suggests interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower, but efforts to find supporting models have been unsuccessful [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by former Federal Reserve economist Matthew Raskin, claims that the rules used by the Federal Reserve in its semi-annual monetary policy report do not clearly indicate a need for rate cuts, let alone cuts of 150 to 175 basis points [1] - The current federal funds rate is within a relatively narrow range of approximately 4% to 4.65%, suggesting that a 25 basis point cut may be reasonable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump expressed willingness to "immediately fire" Federal Reserve Chairman Powell but later indicated that Powell is "very likely" to remain in his position, suggesting a conflict between his criticism of high interest rates and the potential market disruption from such a dismissal [1]. Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve - Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for maintaining "too high" interest rates, indicating dissatisfaction with current monetary policy [1]. - Despite his earlier comments about firing Powell, Trump acknowledged that such an action could "disrupt the market," reflecting the complexities of monetary policy and its impact on financial stability [1]. Market Implications - The potential for Powell to remain in his role suggests continuity in the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates, which may influence market expectations and investor sentiment [1].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain interest rates unchanged and has no immediate plans for rate cuts, leading to a rise in the US dollar index which pressured gold prices down to around 3268 [2][4] - Trade negotiations have extended with Mexico for an additional 90 days, while agreements have been reached with other trade partners, resulting in a decrease in overall market risk aversion as tariffs are implemented [4] - Technical analysis indicates that after a sharp decline, gold showed signs of recovery but faced resistance around 3314, suggesting a short-term bearish trend with key support levels at 3270/66 [4] Group 2 - The US Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day in May [6] - As of July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, influenced by a decline in exports and upcoming OPEC+ production increases, indicating a loose supply-demand balance in the market [6] - Technical outlook for crude oil suggests a bearish sentiment, with recommendations to sell on rebounds around 69.6, targeting levels of 68/67 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision as of July 30 remains unchanged at a lower limit of 4.25%, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve has set the lower limit of the interest rate at 4.25%, which is consistent with both market expectations and the prior rate [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows. It also provides data on key agricultural products such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with information on livestock and macro - economic indicators both in the US and globally [1][3][7][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, and related products are presented. Price changes of major currencies are also provided [1]. - Information on futures - spot price differences (basis) for palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions, as well as CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [1]. 02 Spot Market No specific content provided. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气 -** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have low temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 2 - 6. The Midwest has good soil moisture with rain this week, and although there is high - temperature stress, the overall situation is favorable for crops [3][5]. - **国际供需 -** - Malaysian palm oil production from July 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while exports decreased by 8.53% [7]. - As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. The flowering and pod - setting rates are also reported [8]. - Brazilian soybean exports in the first four weeks of July 2025 increased by 12% compared to the daily average of July last year [9]. - Argentina reduced export withholding tax rates for various agricultural products [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index declined on Monday due to falling freight rates of all ship types [10]. - **国内供需 -** - On July 28, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 72% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil - mill operating rate rose [12]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils increased slightly, with palm oil inventory rising and soybean oil inventory falling [12]. - As of July 28, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports increased [13]. - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig - slaughtering enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28, there were price changes in major agricultural products in the wholesale market [14]. 04 Macro News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.6% [16]. - The US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index was 0.9, better than expected [16]. - The US Treasury increased its borrowing forecast for the third quarter by $453 billion [16]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28 [16]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, including tariff and investment details [16]. - The US will not extend the tariff - increase deadline on August 1, but Trump is ready to continue tariff negotiations [16]. - OPEC + is considering another production - increase action and will discuss September's production level on August 3 [17]. - **Domestic News** - On July 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted up, and the Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On July 28, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 18.351 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 23.813 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 5.461 billion yuan in stock - index futures. Details of fund flows for major futures varieties are provided [22][23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department, represented by Deputy Secretary Faulkender, is encouraging President Trump to broaden the selection pool for Federal Reserve officials [1] Group 2 - There is a growing sentiment that the high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve should be questioned [2]

Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]