Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" with an expected price increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, with the education segment revenue reaching $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, exceeding guidance [2]. - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, estimating a total return of no less than $186 million for FY2025 [4]. - The education business is expected to experience a slowdown in revenue growth due to economic conditions and increased competition, with Q1 FY2026 international exam preparation and study abroad consulting revenues projected to decline by 5% year-over-year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY2025 Q4 revenue was $1.243 billion, with a 9.4% year-over-year increase. The education business revenue was $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, surpassing guidance. Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 6.5%, a 4.1 percentage point increase year-over-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The education business revenue growth is expected to slow in FY2026 due to economic and international factors. Q1 FY2026 international business is projected to decline by 5%, while K9 business is expected to grow by 15-16% [3]. - Profit pressure is anticipated from the slowdown in education revenue, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to positively impact profit margins by 1-1.5 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $5.276 billion, $5.719 billion, and $6.228 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 8% [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are $560 million, $598 million, and $641 million for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with adjusted PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Hold" due to the slowdown in the education business growth [7] Core Views - The company's 4QFY25 revenue reached $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with the education business (including cultural tourism) generating $1.083 billion, up 18.7%. Other businesses, primarily Oriental Selection, saw a revenue decline of 28.5% [4] - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of adjusted net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [4] - The study predicts that the growth rate of the study abroad examination training and consulting business will gradually bottom out, with 4QFY25 revenue of $315 million, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but a slowdown compared to the previous year [5] - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, showed strong growth, with 4Q revenue increasing by 32.5% to $307 million [5] - The report anticipates a continued improvement in operating profit margins, with Non-GAAP operating profit margin expanding by approximately 4.1 percentage points to 6.5% in 4Q [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY24A revenue was $4.314 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.89%. FY25A revenue is projected at $4.9 billion, with a growth rate of 13.60% [8] - The adjusted net profit for FY24A was $464 million, with a year-on-year growth of 79.20%. For FY25A, the adjusted net profit is expected to be $517 million, a growth of 11.40% [8] - The report revises FY26 and FY27 revenue forecasts to $5.28 billion and $5.79 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates of $5.8 billion and $7.03 billion [7] - The DCF target price is adjusted to $53.4, corresponding to a target price of HKD 41.9 per share, with a PE ratio of 15.6x for FY26 [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月31日 新东方-S（09901.HK） 优于大市 教育业务当季增势良好，下季收入增速指引谨慎 FY2025Q4 非甄选业务同增 18.7%，优于管理层指引。FY2025Q4，公司收入 12.43 亿美元/+9.4%，其中非甄选收入 10.89 亿美元/+18.7%，优于前期指引 （10-13%）；经营利润亏损 867 万美元，由盈转亏主因幼儿园业务确认 6030 万美元一次性商誉减值，若剔除该影响非甄选业务 Non-GAAP 经营利润率 6.5%/+4.1pct；归母净利润 710 万美元/-73.7%，若剔除一次性因素影响 Non-GAAP 归母净利润为 9808 万美元/+59.4%。截止期末，递延收入 19.54 亿 美元/+9.8%，消费力下行致季度环比增速（FY25Q1/Q2~19%/15%）继续走低。 第四季度各业务增速均良好。K9 教育新业务同增 32.5%，依旧维持较为快 速增长；高中培训收入同增 24%，得益于供需格局增长韧性也较强 （FY25Q1/Q2 增速分别为 20%/19%）；留学考培/咨询期内收入分别同增 14.6%/8.2%，本季增速尚可但消费力 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects a cautious revenue growth of 2-5%, primarily due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending power is declining [2][9] - The e-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, but the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 5-10% for FY2026, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability [3][19] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to increase its network of schools and learning centers by 10-15% in FY2026 [2][9]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley projects New Oriental (EDU.US, 09901) to achieve a 13% year-over-year growth in core revenue (in USD) for Q4 2025, with core operating profit margin (OPM) expected to increase by over 1 percentage point, aligning with management guidance [1] - The upcoming shareholder return plan may act as a short-term catalyst, with a target price set at $48, corresponding to a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 16 times for the fiscal year 2026, reflecting a reasonable valuation considering a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings from 2026 to 2029 [1] Q4 2025 Outlook - Management maintains guidance for core revenue growth of 13% year-over-year in USD, or 15% in RMB, with overseas revenue up 8%, domestic preparatory training revenue up 9%, high school business revenue up 16-17%, and new business revenue up 32-35% [1] - Core operating profit margin is expected to increase by over 1 percentage point due to low base effects and cost control measures [1] FY 2026 Outlook - Management reiterates guidance for core revenue growth of 14-15% year-over-year in RMB, with overseas revenue projected to grow 0-5%, domestic preparatory training revenue up 10%, high school business revenue up 11-13%, new business revenue up 25-30%, and tourism business revenue up 15-20% [2] - Total revenue is forecasted to grow by 12%, with core operating profit margin expected to expand due to strict cost control [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit is projected at $581 million (operating margin of 10.7%) and non-GAAP net profit at $509 million (net margin of 9.3%) [2] Shareholder Return Expectations - It is anticipated that New Oriental will announce a regular shareholder return plan no later than the performance report for Q4 2025, with flexibility between cash dividends and stock buybacks [2] AI One-on-One Teaching Application - Revenue from the AI one-on-one teaching application will be included in the "Smart Books" category of K9 new business, set to launch on July 2 in New Oriental's live store, with pricing yet to be announced [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgrades PICC P&C to Buy from Neutral, citing its favorable position to benefit from government initiatives aimed at increasing valuations of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Estimates - FY25 net profit estimates are raised by 20% due to recovery in the equity market and higher profit contributions from associates [2] - FY25-27 book value estimates are increased by 1% following the adjustment in profit estimates [2] - FY25/26/27 profit estimates are 4%/10%/12% below VisibleAlpha Consensus Data, indicating that consensus estimates may be overly optimistic [3] Group 2: Underwriting and Market Position - PICC P&C holds a 32% market share in China for FY24, with strong underwriting results in auto insurance, which constitutes approximately 60% of its gross written premiums [7] - The company anticipates improvements in the combined ratio (COR) due to industry-wide cost discipline, particularly in the non-auto segment [4] Group 3: Shareholder Returns and Capital Management - The company is expected to utilize its excess capital of RMB 47 billion to enhance shareholder returns, with an underlying operating ROE of 14% projected over the next three years [8] - The target price is set at HK$16.1, based on a 0.8X multiple for excess capital and a 1.2X P/B for underlying operations, indicating a potential upside of 7% [1][9] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include the lack of additional shareholder return initiatives, which could lead to excess capital accumulation and ROE dilution [4][9] - Underwriting results may fall short of expectations if competitive pressures lead to prolonged pricing and commission competition [5] - Increased claims from natural catastrophes could arise due to climate change, impacting underwriting results and reinsurance costs [6]

Core Insights - Atar Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8% [2] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 345 million yuan, up 32.3% year-on-year [2] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a growth of 25% to 30% for 2025 [2] Financial Performance - Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached 474 million yuan, reflecting a 33.8% year-on-year growth [2] - The total number of hotels operated by Atar Group reached 1,727, with 194,559 rooms [2] - The company opened 121 new hotels in Q1, a 24.7% increase compared to the previous year [2] Shareholder Returns - Atar Group announced a total dividend payout of approximately 58 million USD for 2025 [2] - A three-year share repurchase plan was also announced, with a total buyback amount not exceeding 400 million USD [2] Retail Business Growth - The retail business GMV for Q1 was 845 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 70.9% [3] - Online channels accounted for over 90% of the retail sales [3] - The registered member count surpassed 96 million, marking a 35.4% year-on-year growth [3] Product Development - The company launched new products "Atar 3.6" and "Light Stay 3.3" to enhance the accommodation experience [3] - A one-stop renewal solution "Atar 3.5SE" was introduced to further tap into growth potential in the accommodation sector [2][3] Strategic Vision - The CEO emphasized the commitment to the "Chinese Experience" strategy, aiming to enhance brand and product strength [3] - The focus is on deepening the integration of accommodation and retail businesses to provide superior customer experiences [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Atour Group's strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit metrics [1][2] - In Q1 2025, Atour Group achieved revenue of 1.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 345 million yuan, up 32.3% [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 474 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The average revenue per available room (RevPAR) for Atour Group was 304 yuan, which is 92.8% of the level from the same period in 2024 [1] - The average daily rate (ADR) was 418 yuan, representing 97.2% of the previous year's level, while the occupancy rate (OCC) was 70.2%, down from 95.8% year-on-year [1] - During the reporting period, Atour Group opened 121 new hotels, marking a 24.7% increase compared to the previous year, bringing the total number of operating hotels to 1,727 with approximately 194,600 rooms [1] Group 3 - In the retail segment, Atour Group's gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached 845 million yuan in Q1 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 70.9%, with online channels accounting for over 90% of this figure [1] - The company has been enhancing its membership system to drive synergy between accommodation and retail businesses, resulting in a registered member count exceeding 96 million, a 35.4% increase year-on-year [1] Group 4 - Based on the strong performance in retail and expectations for stable growth throughout the year, Atour Group has raised its full-year revenue guidance, projecting a year-on-year increase of 25%-30% for 2025 [2] - Atour Group announced a shareholder return plan, with an expected total dividend payout of approximately 58 million USD for 2025, alongside a three-year share repurchase plan with a total amount not exceeding 400 million USD [2]

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