Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of perspective in investment, highlighting that market truths can vary based on individual viewpoints, similar to the philosophical debate illustrated by Su Shi's poem about Mount Lu [2][3][4]. Group 1: Value vs. Trend - The article presents a debate between value investors and trend traders, where value investors argue that current stock valuations are historically high and unsustainable, while trend traders believe in following market momentum as the key to success [5][6]. - Both perspectives are valid within their contexts, but neither is the sole measure of market performance, indicating that market evaluation is complex and multifaceted [6]. Group 2: Long-term vs. Short-term Perspective - Investors are cautioned to avoid being trapped in short-term market fluctuations, which can lead to emotional decision-making. A long-term perspective allows for a more stable view of market trends and potential growth [7]. - Recognizing the long-term upward potential can help investors maintain composure amidst market volatility [7]. Group 3: Establishing Investment Perspective - Investors are encouraged to adopt a multi-faceted approach, integrating various perspectives such as value and trend, macro and micro factors, to create a comprehensive decision-making framework [8]. - Understanding the essence of profitability in the market is crucial for determining whether to align with or oppose market trends [8]. - Embracing probabilistic thinking rather than seeking absolute truths is essential for mature investment strategies, focusing on the likelihood of success rather than guaranteed outcomes [8][9]. Group 4: Cognitive Development in Investing - The article posits that investing is fundamentally a cognitive journey, requiring both critical observation and humility in recognizing one's knowledge limits [9]. - By learning to navigate the complexities of the market with a flexible mindset, investors can develop their unique investment strategies [9].

分享要点 时间：9月25日（周四）18:30 地址：上海市淮海西路211号1006 预约席位 9月25日（周三）18:30–20:30，上海高级金融学院金融学教授朱宁将带来一场深度解析公开课，从多维 视角剖析关税博弈背后的逻辑、影响与中国的应对之道。 世界正经历巨大变革：技术革命、地缘政治重构、国内政策优化……全球经贸秩序面临前所未有的挑 战。特朗普重返白宫，再度引发市场对关税政策、贸易摩擦与全球化风险的广泛关注。 在这场充满不确定性的国际环境中，中国如何应对？企业如何前瞻布局？战略应如何调整？ 嘉宾介绍 朱宁 教授 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授 第一财经会员金选·教授公开课 由第一财经携手上海交通大学上海高级金融学院匠心打造。邀请专业教授分享当下企业最关心的话题， 为企业寻找破局之道。 朱宁教授现任上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授。朱宁教授曾任清华大学讲席教授、美国加州 大学金融学终身教授、早稻田大学访问教授。2008-2010年度，朱宁教授还曾担任雷曼兄弟和野村证券 高管，其所带领的团队在多项机构投资者评选中名列前茅。 特朗普关税政策的"前世、今生与未来" 特朗普任期内的全球风险 全球风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world is undergoing significant changes, including a technological revolution, geopolitical restructuring, and domestic policy optimization, leading to unprecedented challenges for the global economic and trade order [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - A public lecture will be held on September 25, focusing on the logic, impact, and China's response to tariff negotiations [2]. - The lecture will cover topics such as Trump's tariff policies, global risks during his term, and the transformation of the Chinese economy under these risks [4]. Group 2: Speaker Profile - Professor Zhu Ning is a finance professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has held various prestigious academic positions, including at Tsinghua University and the University of California [8]. - Zhu Ning has extensive experience in the finance industry, having served as an executive at Lehman Brothers and Nomura Securities, and has published over 20 high-level academic papers in top international journals [9]. Group 3: Course Details - The public lecture is organized by Yicai Media in collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University, aiming to address pressing topics of concern for businesses [10].

一、市场表象下的真相 今年以来，"黄金系ETF"平均上涨75.51%，跑赢了87.7%的个股。这个数据看起来很美好，但我想问的是：为什么大多数散户还是赚不到钱？答案很简单： 我们总是被表象迷惑，而忽略了背后的交易逻辑。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 年内涨跌幅 | 今日涨跌幅 | 基金规模 | 基金管理人 | 品品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | (亿元) | | | | "Th | 517520.SH | 货金股ETF | 78.46 | 5.16 | 79.07 | 水園 | ટટા | | 2 | 159562.SZ | 黄金股ETF | 76.95 | 5.20 | 9.61 | रण्ड | ટટા | | រក្ | 159315.SZ | 第一院ETF重要 | 75.94 | 5.23 | 0.82 | 工银瑞信 | ટેટા | | র | 159322.SZ | 黄金股票ETF基金 | 74.83 | 6.10 | 0.72 | ਸਾਉ | ટરા | | 5 | 51 ...

一、美联储的"变脸"与A股的"障眼法" 阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆的突然转向，让整个华尔街都坐不住了。这位曾经最坚定的ying派，如今却在为降息铺路。看着新闻里那些西装革履的官员们侃侃而 谈，我不禁想起咱们大A股市场里每天都在上演的"木偶戏"。 穆萨莱姆对就业市场的担忧不无道理，但真正让我感兴趣的是这种"态度转变"背后的逻辑。就像咱们A股市场，今天一个利好，明天一个利空，散户们被耍 得团团转。但你知道吗？这些消息面不过是"木偶"，真正操控市场的是那些看不见的"牵线人"。 我观察市场这么多年，发现一个铁律：决定股价走势的是交易行为而不是涨跌。政策消息、业绩分红、资金流向，这些都是摆在明面上的东西，目的是让散 户相信自己的眼睛。就像美联储官员的表态，你以为他们是在为经济担忧？不，他们是在为市场预期管理。 二、震荡市中的"机构密码" 当散户忙着问"前路漫漫何时能涨"时，机构已经在撸起袖子加油干了。重要的不是到哪里，而是看清楚机构在做什么。机构要想实现目标，必须通过反复震 仓来甩掉跟风盘，制造捡筹码的机会。在旁人看来只是反复震荡，但从交易行为去看就是另一回事了。 看这只股票，从高位调整后一直反复震荡。按常理，这种股票谁愿意折 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing significant activity, with financing balances reaching a nearly ten-year high of 22,454.72 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen market setting a historical record [1] - Despite the apparent market prosperity, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3,800 points and 80% of stocks rising, less than 50% of stocks have increased by more than 6%, indicating a typical bull market scenario [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market presents four major misleading phenomena during a bull market: 1. The "waiting for a rise" illusion, where 80% of stocks expected to rise end up falling [4] 2. The "hot and cold" illusion, where true market hotspots show sustainability rather than frequent rotation [5] 3. The "rise and fall" illusion, where stock price fluctuations do not reflect underlying institutional movements [6] 4. The "high and low" illusion, where retail investors focus on price levels rather than behavioral data, leading to misinterpretation of market signals [7] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - The analysis of institutional trading characteristics reveals that active institutional participation is crucial for sustaining stock price increases. Stocks lacking institutional involvement are likely to experience declines [9][11] - Approximately 70% of seemingly strong stocks lack sustained institutional participation, explaining why many investors incur losses in a bull market by chasing superficial trends rather than understanding underlying dynamics [11] Group 3: Leverage and Investment Strategy - The current leverage data indicates that leveraged funds act as both a driving force and an amplifier in the market. Successful investors are those who can see beyond appearances and grasp the essence of market movements [12] - In an era of information overload, investors are encouraged to establish a "data moat" by developing a multi-dimensional evaluation system rather than relying solely on price charts or news [12]

Group 1 - The core phenomenon observed is the surge in gold prices, which recently surpassed $3,500, attributed to various factors such as the perceived loss of Federal Reserve independence and a weakening dollar [1][3] - Analysts from Pangaea Wealth and Pictet Asset Management suggest that political interference has increased policy volatility, undermining the dollar's credibility [3] - Historical data indicates that institutional investors often position themselves ahead of significant gold price increases, as seen during the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict when certain stocks exhibited similar funding patterns [3] Group 2 - Retail investors tend to be misled by surface-level market phenomena, often reacting impulsively to price surges without recognizing that institutions have already established positions at lower prices [5] - A trading system analysis reveals that institutional funds showed clear signs of involvement prior to the gold price breakout, utilizing strategies such as short covering [6] - Behavioral finance suggests that market sentiment can become extreme, and when optimism about gold peaks, it may signal heightened risk, as institutions leverage collective psychology to their advantage [8] Group 3 - Major Wall Street institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, yet their reports often overlook critical data regarding changes in institutional holdings [10] - Quantitative analysis indicates that significant institutional investments in gold ETFs occurred a month before the price breakout, while these funds began to reduce their positions as media coverage intensified [10] Group 4 - To avoid being misled by market fluctuations, investors are encouraged to rely on data-driven analysis rather than media narratives, emphasizing the importance of establishing a personal trading system based on objective market conditions [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is making a significant investment of 40 billion in gas storage facilities, indicating a strategic shift towards natural gas despite a 5.4% decline in net profit [1][2] - The decline in overall performance is attributed to a 14.5% drop in crude oil prices, while natural gas sales increased by 4.2%, suggesting a potential growth area for the company [2] - The acquisition will add 10.97 billion cubic meters of working gas capacity, acting as a "stabilizer" for future performance, similar to characteristics seen in high-performing stocks [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the concept of "bull stocks" and how they often do not provide comfortable entry points for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding market behavior [3][5] - A notable phenomenon observed is the "preemptive buying" behavior that occurs before the rise of bull stocks, which is a result of capital market dynamics [6][8] - The analysis of capital behavior through quantitative data serves as a tool to identify market trends, with CNPC's natural gas business growth amidst overall decline serving as a prime example [14] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that price movements are fundamentally driven by trading behavior, with CNPC's acquisition of gas storage being a strategic move to optimize future cash flow [9][14] - The insights drawn from the CNPC case suggest that true investment opportunities often lie outside mainstream narratives, as institutional investors may be positioning themselves in natural gas while retail investors chase after trending stocks [14]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, reminiscent of the market dynamics before the 2019 rate cut cycle [1] - Historical data shows that after the Fed pauses rate cuts for 5-12 months, there is a 90% chance that the S&P 500 will rise in the following year, with an average increase of 12.9% [2] - The S&P 500 index has shown varied returns in the months following rate cuts, with an average return of -0.9% in the next month but a median return of 14.5% in the following year [1] Group 2 - Many retail investors failed to outperform the index during the 2019-2020 global easing cycle due to poor timing in their trades, often buying high and selling low [3] - The market tends to punish those who believe they can outsmart it, as evidenced by instances where technical analysis led to incorrect predictions [3] Group 3 - The second quarter of 2025 saw significant market activity, with notable stocks experiencing rapid price movements [4] - Quantitative data has revealed that institutional and retail investors often act in concert, leading to price increases when both types of capital are active [16] Group 4 - The use of quantitative data is becoming increasingly important for retail investors in a market dominated by algorithmic trading, as traditional indicators may no longer suffice [18] - Historical patterns remain relevant, and understanding real-time buying and selling activity can provide a competitive edge for retail investors [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the comments made by Fed Chair candidate Brad regarding a potential 100 basis point rate cut have significantly influenced global markets, particularly causing a surge in A-shares, which reflects heightened expectations for interest rate cuts [1][3]. - The phenomenon of "buy the rumor, sell the news" is highlighted, indicating that true market opportunities often slip away by the time news is widely disseminated, especially in the A-share market where participants tend to act preemptively [3][15]. - The article emphasizes that institutional investors do not wait for news releases to enter the market, as evidenced by the early movements in oil stocks during the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, suggesting that significant price movements often precede major news events [3][5]. Group 2 - Behavioral finance principles suggest that irrational behaviors among market participants create specific patterns, with institutional investors often accumulating positions through small trades to avoid drawing attention [7][15]. - The article points out that certain stocks exhibit a common characteristic of having institutional activity prior to significant news, indicating a "preparatory" state that is more valuable than the news itself [15]. - The focus is on identifying which assets have shown unusual fund movements before the Fed takes action, highlighting the importance of data analysis in understanding current market dynamics rather than merely predicting future events [15].