1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread was at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday; the cracking spread of European HSFO fluctuated weakly, and the EW spread fluctuated. The cracking spread of 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis fluctuating at low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a slight inventory draw - down, ARA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah's residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory draw - down, and EIA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up. [3] - With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil was supported, but the short - term upside space was limited. [4] - The global heavy - oil market entered the off - season with inventory build - up. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there was no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low but there was no driving force. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 dropped from 348.42 to 335.47, a decrease of 4.32; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 dropped from 390.01 to 381.64, a decrease of 3.04. [1] - The Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 spread changed by 0.06, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 11.68, the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 8.64, the LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.96, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.28. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 dropped from 345.72 to 341.31, a decrease of 11.08; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 dropped from 350.42 to 349.84, a decrease of 9.74; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 dropped from 419.63 to 416.32, a decrease of 10.14. [1] - The price of Singapore GO M1 dropped from 83.93 to 83.59, a decrease of 1.87; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 spread decreased by 0.31, and the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 3.69. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst dropped from 334.01 to 333.81, a decrease of 9.72; the FOB price of VLSFO dropped from 418.67 to 415.01, a decrease of 10.02. [2] - The 380 - cst basis increased by 1.18, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.3. [2] Domestic FU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of FU 01 dropped from 2437 to 2418, a decrease of 90; the price of FU 05 dropped from 2499 to 2488, a decrease of 85; the price of FU 09 dropped from 2468 to 2464, a decrease of 70. [2] - The FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5, the FU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15, and the FU 09 - 01 spread increased by 20. [2] Domestic LU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of LU 01 dropped from 3010 to 2989, a decrease of 82; the price of LU 05 dropped from 3021 to 3003, a decrease of 88; the price of LU 09 dropped from 3060 to 3033, a decrease of 72. [3] - The LU 01 - 05 spread increased by 6, the LU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 16, and the LU 09 - 01 spread increased by 10. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The explosion at the core berth of CPC over the weekend led to an interruption in exports on the 28th and 29th, which is expected to impact the short - term crude oil exports of Kazakhstan and Russia, and the crude oil monthly spread is expected to rebound. The specific impact assessment still needs to monitor whether the attacks continue. The market expects OPEC to maintain the decision to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Global on - land inventories are accumulating, while the total on - land and water inventories are slightly decreasing. US EIA commercial crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories are accumulating, and diesel inventories in Singapore and ARA are significantly decreasing. Recently, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have improved. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are entering detailed stages. In the short term, the European diesel crack spread has declined significantly due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still have support. It is expected that there is still room for the gasoline - diesel price difference to repair downward. The Brent price range in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, and the short - term valuation deviation is not high. Maintain the short - selling strategy. Recently, focus on whether the interruption of CPC oil exports continues, and the short - term Brent monthly spread is facing a strengthening driver [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From November 27 to December 3, 2025, WTI prices changed from unavailable to 58.95, with a change of 0.31; BRENT prices changed from 63.34 to 62.67, with a change of 0.22; DUBAI prices changed from unavailable to 63.41, with a change of 0.17. Other related price differentials and product prices also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - Venezuela's oil exports in November reached about 921,000 barrels per day, the third - highest monthly average this year. Exports to the US increased to about 150,000 barrels per day, and exports of petroleum by - products and petrochemicals also rose. The import of light crude oil and fuel more than doubled [3] - US President Trump proposed to significantly reduce the fuel economy requirements by 2031, aiming for an average fuel economy of 34.5 miles per gallon, lower than the 50.4 miles per gallon under the previous President Biden's rule. The proposal is estimated to reduce the average upfront cost of vehicles by $900 [4] - Ukraine claimed that the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline was attacked by an explosion, and Russia has not responded yet [4] 3. Inventory Data - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 was 2.48 million barrels, compared with the previous value of - 1.859 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 3.136 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 0.539 million barrels [4] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 was 0.574 million barrels, compared with the expected - 0.821 million barrels and the previous value of 2.774 million barrels; EIA gasoline inventory was 4.518 million barrels, compared with the expected 1.468 million barrels and the previous value of 2.513 million barrels; EIA refined oil inventory was 2.059 million barrels, compared with the expected 0.707 million barrels and the previous value of 1.147 million barrels [4][5] - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.2331 million tons, a decline of 1.75%, and diesel inventory was 12.2708 million tons, a decline of 4.25%. Refining profits of major refineries rebounded, while those of local refineries fluctuated [5] - As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels to 20.849 million barrels. Light distillate inventory decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [5]

Market Performance - The main BU contract closed at 2916, down 2.47% from the opening price of 2983, with a total decline of 2.2% over the past week [2][31] - Trading volume reached 222,500 contracts, with a turnover of 6.641 billion, indicating a significant drop [2][31] - The next month contract (2602) fell by 2.54%, maintaining a contango structure [2][31] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong is 2960 CNY/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative decline of 2.3% over the past week [2][31] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price remains stable at 3190 CNY/ton, with a basis of +274 CNY/ton, up 43 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -365 CNY/ton, with a cumulative decline of 60 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] - The main BU contract fell by 0.1%, while Brent increased by 2.5% [2][31] Fundamental Changes - The asphalt market is currently in the winter off-season, with a production increase of 12% to 492,000 tons as of November 28 [3][32] - The diluted asphalt discount remains high at -11.3 USD/barrel, indicating a loose supply situation [3][32] - Road construction rates have dropped to 29%, the lowest in six weeks, reflecting weak demand [3][32] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak due to reduced demand and inventory pressure, with a focus on winter storage trends [4][32] - OPEC+ production increases may further impact oil prices, likely leading to a downward adjustment in asphalt prices [4][32] - The technical outlook suggests continued low-level fluctuations, with previous reference closing prices of 3010-3100 CNY/ton now breached [4][32] Strategy - The current strategy is to maintain a bearish stance with weak fluctuations anticipated in the asphalt market [6][33]

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Singapore high - sulfur cracking weakened rapidly this week, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week [4]. - Singapore 0.5% cracking weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [4]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased [5]. - The expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks strengthened, the prices of external gasoline and diesel dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week [5]. - After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21, the Singapore basis started to rebound recently [5]. - Global residue has entered an inventory accumulation cycle, external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. Maintain a high - short idea for the internal and external prices of FU01, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [5]. Group 2: Data Changes Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 8.19 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 0.57 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.30 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 14.12 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 13.55 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 1.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | - 7.62 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 5.26 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 1.93 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 4.81 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 1.12 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.40 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 3.48 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 1.25 | | FOB VLSFO | 5.98 | | 380 basis | - 1.23 | | High - sulfur internal - external price difference | 2.1 | | Low - sulfur internal - external price difference | - 3.8 | [3] Domestic FU | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 4 | | FU 05 | 0 | | FU 09 | - 6 | | FU 01 - 05 | 4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 6 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 10 | [3] Domestic LU | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 0 | | LU 05 | 19 | | LU 09 | 9 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 19 | | LU 05 - 09 | 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 9 | [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The mid-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually materializing. If the Russia-Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, and lower oil prices will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil [2] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with declining crack spreads and monthly spreads. The market supply remains relatively abundant. The supply from the Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, some units of the Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low-sulfur crude oil is also recovering. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and there is still support at the lower end of the market [2] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner, and the lower support for valuation mainly comes from the flexible demand at the refinery end. In addition, the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.36% during the day session, at 2,491 yuan/ton; the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.31% during the day session, at 3,015 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. [3] - In the short term, the prices of various energy and chemical products will mainly fluctuate, with different influencing factors and trends for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are loosening, and supply pressure persists. The price will fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertain geopolitical situation, the decline in US commercial crude inventories, and the support from refined oil cracking spreads. [7] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price will oscillate weakly. Factors such as OPEC+ production increase, the end of the Palestine-Israel conflict, and the possible restart of Russia-Ukraine talks have led to a high inventory and a weak demand, resulting in a high overvaluation of the absolute price. [8] - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price will oscillate weakly. The supply may decrease due to the reduction of Russian exports, but the demand is weak, and the cracking spread is also weak. [8] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength of refined oil supports low-sulfur fuel oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current low valuation and the support from refined oil prices will cause it to fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **Methanol**: High inventory restricts the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It will oscillate at a low level. The inventory is still at a historical high, and although there is a slight decline, it still suppresses the price. [25] - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price oscillates narrowly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has certain support, but the market sentiment is uncertain after the spot price increase. [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The boosting effect is limited, and there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to decline in the off-season, resulting in a limited upward space for the price. [17] - **PX**: Rumors of blending oil have disturbed the market again. The price will oscillate slightly upward in the short term, affected by market sentiment and rumors of device maintenance. [11] - **PTA**: The upstream supports the valuation, and the new downstream filament production capacity is put into operation, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. The price will fluctuate with the upstream cost, and the processing profit is temporarily supported. [13] - **Short Fiber**: The fundamentals are average, and it follows the upstream passively. The price will oscillate with the upstream, and the processing fee may be compressed. [20] - **Bottle Chip**: The slight rebound of upstream raw materials supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support. [22] - **Propylene**: The spot price strengthens in the short term, and PL oscillates. The spot has short-term support, and the demand has increased due to the restart of downstream maintenance devices. [30] - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and high inventory. [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price drops, and the maintenance support is limited, so it oscillates. The price will oscillate, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and the high inventory of the upstream and middle reaches. [28] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending oil disturbs the market, and it oscillates after the rebound. The price will oscillate, affected by the uncertainty of the blending oil narrative and the pressure from the pure benzene inventory. [16] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the price, and it may be anchored to production reduction. The price will be cautiously weak, and the market focuses on the production reduction logic and marginal device dynamics. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply and demand, it will oscillate. The supply and demand are expected to be poor, and the price will oscillate due to the possible increase in cost caused by the decline in liquid chlorine price. [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for the future price trends of different varieties. For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 12, a change of - 4. [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also change. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 15, a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, PTA and ethylene glycol, etc., have also changed, which reflects the relative price relationship between different varieties. [36] 3.3 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the text, so it is skipped. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and plate index of commodities have different degrees of increase. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2553.16, an increase of 0.73%. [278] - **Energy Index**: On November 19, 2025, the energy index increased by 1.26% today, 2.26% in the past 5 days, 2.56% in the past month, and decreased by 5.69% since the beginning of the year. [279]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to crude oil, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively, and the surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year [1] - The fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has improved fundamentals [2] - The 2601 asphalt contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton, and the fundamental bearish factors still suppress the market in the medium - to - long term [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to tightened supply - demand margins [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Based on the latest adjustments of the supply - demand balance sheets by three major institutions in November, considering OPEC+ suspending production increases and strictly implementing production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively. The supply surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter, and the most relaxed quarter (Q1 next year) has not arrived yet. Since the fourth quarter, the inventory accumulation rate of global oil at 2.4% has exceeded that of the previous three quarters, and the supply surplus is increasingly evident in the inventory. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year, and attention should be paid to the realization of geopolitical risks related to Venezuela [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk today damaged the oil terminal facilities, driving up the prices of crude - related products, and fuel oil followed suit. In terms of fundamentals, high - sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. Sanctions and attacks on Russia continue to disrupt the supply side, and the possible further sanctions on Venezuela by the US also bring uncertainties. However, the actual reduction in supply needs further observation. The demand side is at the end of the power - generation peak season, and the increase in Middle - East supply offsets the impact, and the demand for refinery feedstock is also weak, so the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has seen a relief in supply pressure due to unstable operation of overseas refineries. The strengthening of the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel provides support from the perspective of production conversion. Coupled with the peak season of bunker fuel demand in the fourth quarter and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the fundamentals have improved compared with the previous period [2] Asphalt - The 2601 contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton. The worse - than - expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush - demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that the demand is lower than the same period last year. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory continues to slow down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened after reaching an inflection point of being higher than the same period last year at the end of October. In the medium - to - long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market has been trending strongly recently, and the supply of imported resources is tight. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has led to an improvement in combustion - end demand. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply - demand margins has boosted the LPG market to be regarded as fluctuating strongly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. The OPEC monthly report confirmed an oversupply of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in Q3 2025, which is different from the previous shortage forecast. The strengthening of refined oil products is reflected in both crack spreads and calendar spreads, while the calendar spreads of crude oil are gradually weakening. The rise in crude oil prices has not driven the chemical sector, and various chemical products are showing different trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory continued to build up last week, and the EIA short - term energy outlook report raised the forecast of US crude oil production. The OPEC monthly report adjusted its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price of asphalt is oscillating. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the calendar spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of fuel oil is oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the strength of refined oil products, low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [13]. - **PX**: Market sentiment tends to be rational. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the processing fee is strongly supported. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate slightly upwards [14]. - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term increase slows down, and it turns to range - bound consolidation [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port resumes inventory accumulation, and pure benzene runs weakly. The current upward driving force is insufficient, but the valuation is at a low level [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory overflow, and styrene oscillates weakly. The pressure in November is mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot circulation is loose, and there are still production profits. The hope of reversing the downward trend in the short - term market is slim. The price will maintain a low - level range - bound operation [19]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy - on - dips" principle, and pay attention to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. The short - fiber price follows the upstream to oscillate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. The processing fee is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short - term [24]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. Wait for overseas disturbance information in the short - term [26]. - **Urea**: There is still an incremental production capacity, and the futures price is under pressure in the short - term. It is in a state of high - inventory suppression and coal - cost support, and pay attention to the implementation of export quotas and coal - price trends [26]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate declines, and plastic oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the production pressure is large due to the increase in production capacity [28]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is still limited, and PP oscillates weakly. The inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and pay attention to the change and sustainability of maintenance [29]. - **PL**: The inventory needs time to be digested, and PL oscillates weakly. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm weakens, and the trading range changes little [30]. - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses, and PVC oscillates weakly. The macro - level disturbance fades, and the fundamentals are under pressure [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.27 with a change of - 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 28 with a change of - 8 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Various varieties show different basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 43 with a change of 7, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads also have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 136 with a change of - 47 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only lists the names of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring data. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 12, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2258.82 (+0.40%), the commodity 20 index is 2563.42 (+0.48%), the industrial products index is 2223.46 (+0.58%), and the PPI commodity index is 1344.72 (+0.44%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 12, 2025, has a current value of 1169.87, with a daily increase of 1.34%, a 5 - day increase of 0.97%, a 1 - month increase of 4.26%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.73% [281].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation. Crude oil should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. PX is in a strong position, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. PTA's supply - demand pattern shows an improvement expectation, and the price is expected to be supported [3][14]. - Most products in the energy and chemical sector are expected to oscillate, with some showing a slightly bullish or bearish tendency in the short - term, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - On November 6, 2025, the Chinese A - share market rose, and the commodity market sentiment generally improved. PX and PTA in the energy and chemical sector performed well, with PX rising more than PTA, and TA's processing fee per ton dropping to 120 yuan/ton. The rise of aromatics is related to the high cracking spread of global gasoline, and there has been arbitrage from Asian blending products to the Americas recently. The downstream demand for polyester remains healthy, and the loom operating rate has increased week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Product - by - Product Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, geopolitical risks remain, and the price is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price for Asia, corresponding to the downward shift of the Middle - East oil premium center in the past month. Russian refineries have been attacked, and the US refined oil inventory has decreased smoothly since October. The overseas gasoline and diesel markets remain strong, and the reduction of refined oil inventory pressure and the strong cracking spread support the crude oil demand. However, the continuous inventory build - up in reality is difficult to change, so the price oscillates [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price may test the 3200 yuan/ton resistance level again. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela is under control. The asphalt futures price has fallen below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which may turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has fallen below 400 yuan/ton, the production schedule in November has decreased significantly, but the demand has entered the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force for the high premium of asphalt has weakened. The pricing weight of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong, and the inventory build - up pressure is still large [11]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, but the premium on Russian products in Europe and the US still exists. The fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November is expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. However, the refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak as it has entered the off - season [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak oscillation of crude oil, and the 3500 yuan/ton resistance level is effective in the short - term. The main product attribute of low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of the gasoline and diesel cracking spread, supporting low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The 2100 yuan/ton integer level provides some support, and methanol is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price oscillated on November 6. The domestic methanol factory operating rate remains high, resulting in sufficient supply. The port inventory is relatively high, which still suppresses the price in the short - term. However, considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has long - buying value and should be treated with an oscillatory view in the short - term [28]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The export information has been confirmed, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. - **Main Logic**: On November 6, the supply - demand pattern of urea remained loose. Although the supply has returned to a high level after the end of plant maintenance, the demand is weak due to the end of winter wheat sowing. The high inventory pressure still exists, but the coal cost provides strong support. Combined with the speculation about export information in the market, urea is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the rebound height is limited under the fermentation of market sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The polyester chain products have strengthened, but EG's own supply - demand is weak, and the port inventory has continued to increase this week. The overall price elasticity of EG will be significantly suppressed in the medium - term. Although the factory operating rate of EG has decreased this week, providing some support to the price, the long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [20][21]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: PX is leading the polyester chain strongly, and the short - term market sentiment is enthusiastic. - **Main Logic**: The cost change is limited. There are rumors of production cuts and PX factory maintenance in the market, driving PX and PTA prices up. PX has been in a strong position in 2025, with continuous inventory reduction and tight spot liquidity. The supply of PX is expected to be tight in the first half of next year, and the positive growth of downstream demand supports PX demand to some extent [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: After the meeting, PTA plants have stopped production in batches, and the market sentiment continues to ferment. - **Main Logic**: Affected by market news, the PTA futures price has strengthened significantly. Although it is difficult for enterprises to reach a coordinated production - cut agreement, there are many planned plant disturbances in November. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to improve, and the downward compression space of the PTA processing spread is limited, but the upward space depends on whether there is more than expected production cut [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Caught between rising costs and falling demand expectations, the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has risen due to capital speculation, and short - fiber has followed the cost increase but with a smaller increase, resulting in a passive compression of the processing fee. Although the downstream procurement has increased in the afternoon under the influence of market sentiment, the overall sales this week have been weak, and short - fiber has continued to accumulate inventory [22][23]. 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the rise of raw materials passively. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen, driving some polyester bottle - chip factories to raise their prices. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the processing fee is within a stable range [24][25]. 3.2.12 Polypropylene (PP) - **Viewpoint**: As the price drops, the trading volume increases, and PP is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The downstream trading volume has increased as the price drops. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. PP's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [31][32]. 3.2.13 Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and LLDPE is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The LLDPE futures price oscillates. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. LLDPE's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [30]. 3.2.14 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream maintenance has ended in early November, and PVC production will increase. The downstream operating rate has recovered, but only the low - price procurement volume has increased. The PVC export order signing has weakened this week, and the anti - dumping measure suppresses the export expectation [34]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of caustic soda have improved this week, but the driving force for continuous improvement is limited. The alumina production capacity has decreased, the demand for caustic soda from Weiqiao is still high, the new alumina project in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum operating rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high. The maintenance of caustic soda plants will end in early November, and the production will increase month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have changed to different extents. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has increased by 22 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different changes. For example, the basis of asphalt has increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 7690 [38]. - **Inter - product Spreads**: The spreads between different products, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., have also changed. For example, the 1 - month TA - EG spread has increased by 78 yuan/ton [40].