本文字数：1981，阅读时长大约4分钟 2025.09. 05 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 面对特朗普政府发起的关税战，印度再次选择硬刚。 近期，印度就美国以232调查名义对铜征收50%关税一事寻求与美国进行世贸组织（WTO）磋商。 第一财经记者从WTO方面获知，目前该磋商通讯文件已经分发给各WTO成员。 该文件称： "印度认为，尽管（美方）措施声称是为了安全利益所采取的对策，但本质上是一项保障措施。" 值得指出的是，从4月美方对全球提出所谓"对等关税"以来，印度多次在WTO框架下反击美国：此前印度保留对部分美国产品征收报复性关税的权利， 以回应美国对钢铁、铝和汽车零部件征收的232关税。 反击美国铜关税等232措施 7月30日，美国开始对进口的部分铜产品征收50%关税，该措施自8月1日起生效，且无限期适用。 此次，印度表示，美国未能就实施保障措施的决定通知WTO保障措施委员会。 "作为受影响的成员，印度对美国涉案产品拥有重大的出口利益，因此请求与美国进行磋商。"印度在上述通讯文件中表示，"印度期待美国对此请求作 出及时答复，并商定双方便利的磋商日期和地点。" 根据印方数据，在2025财年，印度向美国出口了价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: Affected by weak US employment data, the ADP employment in August only increased by 54,000, strengthening the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Multiple factors jointly support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment, independence issues, and bond - market risks. Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to relatively tight supply and the stimulus of US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [17]. - **Aluminum**: In the short term, aluminum fluctuates with an upward bias, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventory should start to decline. Alumina has insufficient upward drive in the short term, and its price is approaching the 2,880 yuan cost line. Cast aluminum alloy is more resilient due to cost support [37][38][39]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, zinc shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak domestically. Observe macro and consumption factors, and it will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Nickel**: Currently, the nickel ore price has a slight decline, other nickel products are basically stable, and the MHP benchmark price has an upward trend. Stainless - steel inventory has decreased for several weeks, and demand sentiment has improved in the peak season. Sulfuric - nickel prices are stable. Pay continuous attention to the impact of interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar trend [83]. - **Tin**: In the short term, tin prices have an upward driving force due to tight supply, despite certain demand pressure [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. If the conversion of orders to actual transactions is less than expected, the market may remain weakly oscillating; if the receiving demand is gradually released, prices may be supported [110]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: In the short term, industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September. In the medium - to - long term, they have an upward expectation. Polysilicon is in a "wide - range oscillation" state, and short - term price fluctuations due to news stimuli should be vigilant [119]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Weak US employment data, the signing of the US - Japan trade agreement, investigations into the Fed's independence, and the expansion of the US trade deficit support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Market Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, inventory, and long - term fund positions are presented [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose due to multiple factors but fell on Wednesday. In the short term, they may remain strong due to supply and demand factors [17]. - **Market Data**: Include copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures' main contract is 80,140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46% [18][23][33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term, while alumina prices are under pressure. Cast aluminum alloy is relatively resilient [37][38][39]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, inventory, and basis [40][54][63]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: In the short term, zinc prices show an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern and will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Market Data**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract is 22,155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [69][74][79]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel ore prices decline slightly, other nickel products are stable, and the MHP benchmark price rises. Stainless - steel demand improves in the peak season, and sulfuric - nickel prices are stable [83]. - **Market Data**: Present data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins [84][93]. Tin - **Price Driving Force**: Tin prices are driven up by tight supply in the short term [98]. - **Market Data**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai tin futures' main contract is 272,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [99][104][106]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. The future trend depends on downstream receiving demand [110]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory, and price differences [111][113][117]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September and have an upward expectation in the medium - to - long term. Polysilicon remains in a "wide - range oscillation" state [119]. - **Market Data**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, inventory, and production data [120][121][140].

Group 1 - The U.S. has signed a trade agreement with Japan, implementing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods exported to the U.S. [3] - The new tariff framework aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and improve overall trade balance [3] - Japan will increase its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% and commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually [3] Group 2 - Japan will allow U.S. manufactured passenger cars to be sold in its market without additional testing, adhering to U.S. safety certification standards [3] - The agreement includes commitments for Japan to purchase U.S. manufactured commercial aircraft and defense equipment [3] - Key sectors for market access include manufacturing, aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automotive, and industrial products [3] Group 3 - Gold futures are currently trading at approximately 815.10 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.12% [1] - The trading range for gold futures shows a high of 817.76 yuan per gram and a low of 811.36 yuan per gram [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 823 yuan per gram and 860 yuan per gram, while support levels are between 781 yuan per gram and 850 yuan per gram [4]

Group 1 - The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to officially implement the US-Japan trade agreement [1] - Under the agreement, the US will impose a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods exported to the US, with differentiated tariff treatment for specific sectors including automobiles, aerospace products, generic drugs, and natural resources that cannot be sourced or produced domestically [1] - Japan will provide breakthrough market access opportunities for US manufacturers in key sectors such as aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automobiles, and industrial products [1] Group 2 - Japan aims to increase its procurement of US rice by 75% under the "minimum market access" rice plan, with an annual total procurement of $8 billion for US agricultural products including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, and bioethanol [1] - The Japanese government will facilitate the sale of US-manufactured passenger cars in Japan without additional testing, provided they meet US safety certification standards [1] - Japan will also procure US-made commercial aircraft and US defense equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to implement a US-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods imported to the US, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and enhancing trade balance [1] Group 1: Tariff Structure - The new tariff framework will impose a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese imports to the US [1] - Specific sectors such as automobiles, aerospace products, generic drugs, and natural resources that cannot be sourced or produced domestically in the US will have differentiated tariff treatments [1] Group 2: Market Access and Agricultural Procurement - Japan will provide breakthrough market access opportunities for US manufacturers in key sectors including aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, automobiles, and industrial products [1] - Under the "minimum market access" rice plan, Japan aims to increase its procurement of US rice by 75% [1] - Japan will also commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of US agricultural products annually, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, and bioethanol [1] Group 3: Automotive and Defense Procurement - Japan will facilitate the sale of US-manufactured passenger vehicles in its market without requiring additional testing, provided they meet US safety certification standards [1] - The Japanese government will also procure US-made commercial aircraft and defense equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - India is challenging the U.S. tariffs on copper, asserting that these measures are essentially safeguards rather than security measures, and is seeking consultations with the WTO [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and India's Response - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on certain copper products starting August 1, which India claims affects its significant export interests [4]. - India exported copper products worth $360 million to the U.S. in the fiscal year 2025, while its copper imports for the fiscal year 2024-2025 amounted to $14.45 billion, indicating a net import status [4]. - India has previously reserved the right to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products in response to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automotive parts [2][5]. Group 2: Ongoing Trade Negotiations - Despite the imposition of tariffs, India and the U.S. are engaged in negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement, having completed five rounds since March [6]. - The next round of negotiations was postponed due to the U.S. tariffs, with India emphasizing the need to resolve the tariff issue as a key to reaching an agreement [7]. - The U.S. has pressured India to open its markets in politically sensitive areas like agriculture and dairy, which India is reluctant to accept due to domestic concerns [8]. Group 3: Trade Statistics and Future Goals - In the period from April to July, India's exports to the U.S. grew by 21.64% to $33.53 billion, while imports increased by 12.33% to $17.41 billion [9]. - The U.S. accounted for approximately 20% of India's total exports in 2024-2025, while India's exports represented about 2.5% of U.S. imports [9]. - The goal of both countries is to increase bilateral trade from the current $191 billion to $500 billion by 2030 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Canada has decided to eliminate retaliatory tariffs on most U.S. imports, impacting approximately $21 billion in U.S. exports to Canada, including various consumer goods and appliances [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Canada will maintain tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum temporarily, indicating a strong stance in these critical sectors [4]. - The decision to adjust negotiation strategies comes amid pressure from domestic, regional, and international factors, including the urgency created by other G7 members reaching trade agreements with the U.S. [7]. - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a reported GDP decline of 0.4% in Q2, following a 0.5% growth in Q1, and significant drops in exports of vehicles and machinery due to U.S. tariffs [7][8]. Group 2: Future Trade Frictions - Ongoing discussions focus on five strategic areas: steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, and softwood lumber, with existing tariffs on non-compliant imports from Canada [11]. - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper and increased anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood, raising the total tariff rate to 35.19% [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding negotiations has led to a decrease in foreign investment in Canada, with expectations that the U.S. may push for higher localization ratios and wage alignment in future talks [12].

Group 1 - The EU is proposing legislation to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods, leading to internal backlash from member states like Germany and France, questioning whether this signifies a concession to the US [1][3] - The trade agreement announced on August 21 between the EU and the US imposes a 15% base "reciprocal tariff" on EU goods, with additional tariffs of up to 50% on steel and aluminum products, indicating a significant concession from the EU [1][3] - The EU's dependency on the US market is highlighted, with exports to the US amounting to $370 billion, representing 13% of total exports, and a trade surplus of $245.9 billion, which creates a lack of negotiating power for the EU [3][5] Group 2 - The EU's defense spending is also heavily reliant on the US, with NATO members expected to increase defense budgets to 5% of GDP, further entrenching the EU's dependence on American products and military support [5] - Internal divisions within the EU hinder effective countermeasures against US trade policies, as member states prioritize their own interests over collective action, leading to a "divide and conquer" strategy by the US [5][7] - The EU's concessions in the trade agreement are expected to negatively impact its economy, with a projected annual GDP loss of 0.3% in the short term and 0.1% in the long term, as European companies may relocate investments to avoid high tariffs [7][8] Group 3 - The agricultural sector in Europe feels neglected in the trade agreement, as it faces the same 15% tariffs on exports to the US, while the automotive industry appears to benefit the most, creating tensions among different sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a sudden drop, falling below $108,300 and challenging the $107,000 mark, amidst increasing market uncertainty due to political tensions and upcoming economic data releases [2][3]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price has shifted from an upward trend to a decline within 24 hours, with Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies also showing slight pullbacks [2]. - The recent drop in Bitcoin's price is significant, as it has fallen below $108,300, raising concerns about its stability [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - U.S. President Trump has issued threats regarding federal intervention in Chicago, which has contributed to market uncertainty [3]. - The mayor of Chicago and the governor of Illinois have publicly rejected Trump's plans to deploy federal law enforcement, indicating a potential escalation in political tensions [3]. - Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on EU goods, citing regulatory issues affecting U.S. tech companies, which could impact trade relations and market dynamics [4]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions are expected to have significant implications for various asset classes [4].

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is urged to respond firmly to threats from the Trump administration regarding digital regulation, emphasizing the need to protect its own tech regulatory framework [1] - French President Macron suggested that Europe should consider retaliatory measures against American tech companies in response to Trump's threats [1] - The EU is prepared to abandon trade agreements with the Trump administration to safeguard its digital policies [1] Group 2 - The United States and the EU reached an agreement on a trade framework that includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agriculture, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductors, energy, and digital trade barriers [2] - The trade agreement framework indicates that the U.S. imposes tariffs of up to 15% on most goods imported from the EU, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber [2] Group 3 - President Trump warned countries implementing digital regulations and taxes that they would face high tariffs on exports to the U.S. unless discriminatory measures against American companies are lifted [3] - The EU maintains that regulating its domestic economic activities is a matter of sovereignty and is separate from the U.S.-EU trade agreement discussions [3]