盾博dbg发现在全球经济充满不确定性的当下，美联储的货币政策走向始终是金融市场关注的焦点。堪 萨斯联储主席施密德周二的一番表态，为市场理解美联储的决策逻辑提供了新的视角。他明确指出，在 决定是否进一步降息之前，美联储有充足的时间来研究进口关税上升对物价和经济增长产生的影响，这 一观点凸显了美联储在制定政策时的审慎态度。 面对这种复杂局面，施密德明确表示："何时降息以及降息幅度还远不够明朗。" 他坚决主张在经济走 向更加清晰之前，保持利率不变。这一立场体现了美联储在平衡经济增长、控制通胀和稳定就业等多重 目标时的谨慎态度。在全球贸易局势紧张、国内经济数据波动的背景下，美联储的每一次政策调整都可 能引发广泛的经济和市场反应。因此，采取 "观望" 策略，等待更多经济数据和信号，无疑是在不确定 性中寻求确定性的稳妥之举。 事实上，美联储维持现有利率水平的决策与外部压力形成了鲜明对比。尽管美国总统特朗普多次公开呼 吁降息，试图通过降低利率刺激经济增长，但自去年 12 月以来，美联储始终坚守立场，将基准利率维 持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的区间。这一坚持背后，是美联储对经济形势的独立判断与对货币政策自主性的捍 卫。美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June is attributed to widespread concerns about the economy, job market, and personal financial outlook due to trade policy implications [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93 in June, lower than all economists' expectations [1] - This decline highlights ongoing worries about the potential economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Behavior - Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending [1] - Consumers' assessment of current business conditions has become more pessimistic compared to May [1] Group 3: Employment Outlook - The perception of current job opportunities has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory, aligning with a still strong job market [1]

北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月利率决议及最新经济预测摘要（SEP），其中反映官员利率预 期的"点阵图"成为关键焦点。当前，对进口关税走向及地缘冲突下油价波动的不确定性加剧，正显著提 升美联储无法如3月预期般在2025年降息两次的风险。 3月点阵图中值显示，美联储官员预计2025年底前降息两次。然而，目前联邦基金利率期货市场仅赋予 降息幅度小于两次约37.7%的概率。这一预期差为今夜决议埋下风险：若点阵图中值下调至仅一次降 息，可能引发市场失望情绪。 美国总统特朗普4月对多数进口商品加征的10%基础关税，其90天暂停期将于7月结束，缺乏永久解决方 案加剧了通胀前景的不确定性。同时，近期中东紧张局势导致油价波动加剧，引发对潜在供应中断推升 通胀的担忧。这些因素叠加，正侵蚀美联储的政策空间。 金融服务公司Ebury指出，年内两次降息可能仍是多数委员的基准预期，但关税的巨大不确定性可能阻 碍他们大幅调整观点。风险在于，少数委员下调预期可能足以使点阵图中值指向仅降息一次（25基 点）。若点阵图偏鹰派，加之鲍威尔强调不急于降息，可能支撑美元走强。 市场普遍预期美联储首次降息将在9月。过去三个月，美联储官员对202 ...

·国家外汇管理局披露，中国5月末外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美元。外汇局称，5月受主要经济体财政政策、货币政策和经济增长前景 等因素影响，美元指数小幅震荡，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现，汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升；我国经济持续回升向 好，经济发展质量稳步提升，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。（新华财经） ·人民银行数据显示，5月末黄金储备报7383万盎司（约2296.37吨），环比增加6万盎司（约1.86吨），为连续第7个月增持黄金。（新华财经） ·2025年度长三角地区主要领导座谈会在南京举行。会议指出，要巩固经济回升向好态势，增强高质量发展动能。共同实施一批跨区域"两重"项目，加速释 放长三角投资潜力。深入实施"满意消费长三角"提升行动，持续增强消费发展动能。推动内外贸一体化发展，共建共享新型贸易基础设施，不断增强企业应 对风险挑战的底气和信心。（新华财经） ·《深圳市提振消费专项行动实施方案》已正式印发，方案提出39条具体措施，提及支持消费及文旅项目发行基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）； 引导金融机构增加对批发零售、住宿餐饮、文化旅游、教 ...

6月2日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜收升，与此同时美国期铜跳涨，较伦敦期铜的升水扩 大，此前美国总统特朗普表示将把铝和钢铁进口关税翻倍至50%。 伦敦时间6月2日17:00(北京时间6月3日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收高118.50美元或1.25%，收报每吨 9,616.50美元。 | | 6月2日LE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期锅 | 9616.50 | ↑ +118.50 | ↑ +1.25% | | 三个月期铝 | 2466.00 | 1 | +22.00 ↑ +0.90% | | 三个月期锌 | 2698.00 | 1 | +78.00 ↑ +2.98% | | 三个月期铅 | 1981.00 | 1 +23.00 | 1 +1.17% | | 三个月期镍 | 15537.00 | 1 +300.00 ↑ +1.97% | | | 三个月期锡 | | 30709.00 ↑ +303.00 ↑ +1.00% | | 交投最活跃的COMEX期铜合约一度触及4月29日以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is set to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, which has been criticized by Australia as an unreasonable and self-harming economic action [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. President announced the increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports effective June 4 [1] - The new tariff rate will rise from 25% to 50%, significantly impacting international trade dynamics [1] Group 2: Australia's Response - Australia's Trade Minister, Farrell, stated that the tariffs are not a friendly act and are detrimental to consumers and businesses that rely on free and fair trade [1] - Farrell emphasized Australia's commitment to advocating for the removal of these tariffs [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales grew by 6% compared to 11% growth last year, while comparable store sales were flat, following 2% growth last year [8][29] - EBIT margin increased by 30 basis points, and adjusted EPS was up 18% over last year despite flat comparable sales [10][29] - Gross margin rate for Q1 was 43.8%, an increase of 30 basis points year-over-year, driven by a 20 basis point increase in merchandise margin [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a flat comp sales trend across all demographic trade areas, indicating a broad-based slowdown [18][68] - Reserve inventory was up 31% compared to last year, reflecting strong purchasing ahead of tariffs [30][76] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a deceleration in comp sales from Q4 to Q1, with concerns about macroeconomic indicators and potential recession risks [19][84] - The Southeast region outperformed the chain, while the Midwest region trailed due to unfavorable weather [96] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its "Burlington Two Point O" strategy, emphasizing merchandising capabilities and store experience improvements [23][107] - Plans to open 100 net new stores in 2025, with a significant portion expected to open in the latter half of the year [34][116] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the impact of tariffs and the state of the consumer, highlighting the need for flexibility in operations [13][20] - The company is prepared to navigate potential challenges and believes it can emerge stronger from the current environment [17][37] Other Important Information - The company has a new $500 million share repurchase authorization approved by the Board of Directors [30] - Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was approximately $1.1 billion, consisting of cash and availability on the ABL [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on off-price retail - Management indicated that disruption from tariffs could create both risks and opportunities for off-price retailers, depending on the situation [40][46] Question: Monthly comp sales trend in Q1 - Comp sales were down about 2% in February, improved in March, and were flat in April, with May showing similar trends [58][60] Question: Comp performance by demographic - Lower income trade areas outperformed the rest of the chain, while Hispanic consumer trends remained stable [68][72] Question: Freight costs and guidance - Guidance is contingent on holding ocean freight costs to contracted rates, with potential risks from spot market exposure [90][93] Question: Store openings and layout - The company expects 25% of new stores to open in the first half of 2025, with the majority in the third quarter, including newly acquired Joann's locations [116]

欧洲议会批准对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯化肥征收壁垒税 智通财经5月22日电，尽管欧洲农民提出抗议，担心主要商品价格飙升，欧洲议会周四还是以多数票批 准对来自俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的农产品和化肥征收新的进口关税。新关税预计将从今年7月起分阶段实 施，为期三年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in U.S. long-term Treasury yields has led to an increase in the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index showing fluctuations throughout the trading day [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.5 basis points, closing at 4.538%, providing support for the dollar [3]. - The dollar index rose by 0.03%, closing at 101.037 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while recent inflation data shows progress towards the 2% target, the outlook remains uncertain due to potential price increases from import tariffs [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that April's mild consumer price inflation may not reflect the impact of rising import tariffs, indicating a need for more data to assess price and economic trends [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Trade Negotiations - Market rumors suggested that the U.S. is seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations, but this was denied by Bloomberg citing anonymous sources [4]. - The Japanese yen saw the largest gain against the dollar among G10 currencies, supported by potential discussions on exchange rates in trade talks and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor [4]. - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was at 1.1178 USD, the pound at 1.3264 USD, and the dollar was at 146.72 JPY, among other currency values [4].

美联储古尔斯比：美联储等待了解关税影响，数据仍显嘈杂 金十数据5月14日讯，美联储古尔斯比周三表示，显示4月份消费者通胀温和的数据并不一定反映出美国 进口关税上升的影响，美联储仍需要更多的数据来了解物价和经济的走向。古尔斯比表示，"空气中有 时会有很多灰尘，我们听到了一堆噪音……我们正试图找出那条主线。" ...