Core Insights - The announcement by President Trump to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff led to a significant price drop in COMEX copper, with prices falling over 20% within an hour of the announcement [1] - The copper market experienced its second circuit breaker activation in less than a month, indicating high volatility and market sensitivity to tariff announcements [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - COMEX copper prices plummeted by 22% to $4.5030 per pound, equivalent to $9,927 per ton, triggering a rapid liquidation of long positions [1] - The trading halt occurred for two minutes due to the dynamic circuit breaker mechanism, which is activated when price fluctuations exceed ±10% within a rolling 60-minute window [2] Group 2: Tariff Implications - The White House announced that starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on various imported copper products, while raw copper inputs and scrap copper will be exempt from these tariffs [1] - The premium of COMEX copper over the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark has narrowed significantly from approximately $3,000 per ton to around $10 per ton, reflecting changes in market dynamics since the tariff proposal [2]

声明称，对来自墨西哥和加拿大的食品和饮料进口产品征收30%关税，或使美国餐饮业损失151.6亿美 元，并可能导致小型企业利润损失35%。该协会还就美国政府可能对巴西和欧盟进口产品征收关税一事 表示担忧，称这将进一步加剧供应链压力，并增加咖啡、牛肉、葡萄酒和烈酒等必需品的成本。 全美餐饮协会（National Restaurant Association）7月30日发布声明称，该协会已致信美国贸易代表格里 尔，敦促美国政府重新考虑拟议的食品和饮料进口关税。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting from August 1 [1] Group 2 - The announcement was made public on the White House website on July 30 [1] - This tariff is part of the broader trade policy measures being implemented by the U.S. government [1] - The decision may impact various industries that rely on copper imports, potentially leading to increased costs for manufacturers [1]

美国白宫：特朗普将评估是否从2027年1月1日起对精炼铜征收15%的分阶段普遍进口关税。 ...

"美联储传声筒"NickTimiraos文章称，美联储对其政策声明几乎未作改动，表明无意暗示可能降息。美 联储官员们将基准政策利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的区间，以权衡进口商、零售商和消费者将如何分担进 口关税上调带来的成本。关于谁将承担关税负担的激烈争论的结果将决定今年晚些时候通胀和就业的走 势，并可能决定央行在未来几个月是否以及何时恢复降息。 ...

Core Insights - In June, U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined, indicating a slowdown in equipment investment as the effects of preemptive purchasing before tariff increases faded [1] - The month-over-month change in non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, fell by 0.7%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.2% [1] - The May data was revised upward to a growth of 2.0% [1] Equipment Investment Trends - Core capital goods shipments increased by 0.4% in June, down from 0.5% in May [1] - Some businesses are beginning to delay capital expenditure plans due to heightened uncertainty regarding the final levels of tariffs [1] Manufacturing Sector Outlook - A survey by S&P Global indicated that the preliminary manufacturing PMI for July fell into contraction for the first time since December of the previous year [1] - S&P noted that while import tariffs provided some protective effects, rising prices and increased costs have become greater concerns for businesses [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The June PPI in the U.S. remained largely flat month-on-month, primarily due to a decline in service costs, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the increased costs from rising import tariffs [1] Group 1: PPI and CPI Data - The PPI report follows the June CPI data, which shows that higher tariffs are gradually being passed on to various categories, including home goods, appliances, and leisure products [1] - Despite a generally mild inflation rate this year, many economists expect inflation to gradually rise as more companies attempt to offset higher trade costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current policy stalemate of the Federal Reserve is likely to persist due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation data [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Recent inflation data has not alleviated uncertainties stemming from tariffs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - The housing price index has shown a slight decline, indicating a potential downward trend in inflation [1] - However, prices of certain goods potentially affected by import tariffs have seen an acceleration in their price increases [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - The analyst believes that without the uncertainties related to tariffs, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would likely have enough confidence to begin lowering interest rates [1] - The current policy stalemate is expected to continue until the situation becomes clearer [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the negative impact of tariffs, Ericsson's second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations due to increased sales in high-profit countries, rising licensing revenues, and cost reductions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the second quarter was 45.7 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 4.752 billion USD), surpassing FactSet analysts' forecast of 33.9 billion Swedish Krona [1] - Overall sales in the main network business declined by 5.3% in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Strong growth was observed in the North American market, while the European market showed slight growth [1] - Sales in the Indian market experienced a significant decline, attributed to low levels of network investment in the region [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CEO expressed optimism about continued growth in the Americas and stabilization in Europe [1] - The company noted that future uncertainties may increase, including potential changes in tariffs and broader macroeconomic conditions [1]