Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing a strong yet constrained trading pattern against the US Dollar (USD) and Euro, driven by the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) zero interest rate policy and global risk sentiment fluctuations, with expectations that the zero interest rate will persist until the second half of 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Swiss National Bank Policy - The SNB has maintained a policy interest rate of 0%, with no immediate plans to shift to negative rates, even in the face of potential short-term deflation [1][2]. - The SNB's policy is designed to alleviate pressure on key export sectors such as watchmaking and pharmaceuticals, which are facing challenges, including a 7.3% year-on-year decline in watch exports as of November 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Swiss economy is projected to see GDP growth slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, with a rise in unemployment from 2.8% to 3.0%, indicating insufficient recovery momentum [2]. - Inflation is expected to remain low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) nearing 0% at the end of 2025, and the SNB forecasts inflation to rise to 0.3%-0.6% in 2026-2027, within the target range of 0%-2% [1][2]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The USD/CHF exchange rate is under pressure due to narrowing interest rate differentials, with the market anticipating a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in 2026, delaying the first cut until June [2]. - The CHF continues to attract safe-haven flows amid global uncertainties, including trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, despite temporary outflows following signals of reduced geopolitical risks from events like the Davos Forum [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The USD/CHF is expected to trade within a range of 0.79-0.81 throughout 2026, with key resistance levels at 0.8010-0.8020 and support at 0.7970 [3][4]. - The SNB's foreign exchange interventions, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and global geopolitical risks will be critical factors influencing the CHF's performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing a "strong oscillation with limited dual-direction movement" due to a combination of global central bank policy divergence, geopolitical risk fluctuations, and trade pattern adjustments, reflecting its status as a pure safe-haven currency [1] Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the USD/CHF exchange rate is at 0.7953, ending a three-day decline, with a trading range of 0.7900-0.8020 [1] - The EUR/CHF exchange rate is hovering around 0.9350, showing significant resistance without a clear breakout direction [1] - The CHF has appreciated slightly against the USD and stabilized against the EUR, driven by the "loose US, stable Swiss" policy interest rate differential and temporary inflows of safe-haven funds [1] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The SNB maintains a policy interest rate of 0%, which is low compared to other major central banks, with no immediate plans for adjustment [2] - SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasized that the threshold for restoring negative interest rates is very high, even in the event of negative inflation [2] - The zero interest rate policy aims to prevent excessive appreciation of the CHF, alleviating pressure on key export sectors such as watchmaking and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's macroeconomic accounts provide a long-term fundamental "moat" for the CHF, with a current account surplus consistently above 4% of GDP and a net international investment position exceeding 100% of GDP [3] - Despite a temporary trade deficit due to high US tariffs, a trade agreement has led to a rapid recovery, particularly in gold exports, which surged from 0.3 tons in August to 128.2 tons in October [3] - The CHF's safe-haven status remains attractive to global investors, supported by Switzerland's political neutrality, low government debt (approximately 40%), and substantial net overseas assets [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions predict a "strong oscillation with narrowed volatility" for the CHF in 2026, with key divergences centered on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk developments [4] - Valion Bank forecasts the USD/CHF exchange rate to fluctuate between 0.79 and 0.81 throughout the year, while UBS suggests limited further weakening of the USD [4] - Traders Union's statistical model indicates that if the current market conditions persist, the USD/CHF rate could drop to around 0.778 by year-end and potentially further to approximately 0.6515 by 2030 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing a narrow consolidation phase, influenced by central bank policies, Swiss economic data, and global risk sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its December 11 meeting, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The SNB adjusted its inflation forecasts, lowering the 2026 inflation expectation from 0.5% to 0.3% and the 2027 expectation from 0.7% to 0.6% [1]. - The SNB expressed openness to further rate cuts if deflationary pressures persist, although it noted that the threshold for negative rates is relatively high [2]. Group 2: Economic Data - The Swiss economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with the SNB projecting a GDP growth rate of slightly below 1.5% for 2025 and around 1% for 2026 [2]. - However, the Swiss economy faced a contraction in Q3, and the unemployment rate has been rising in recent months [2]. - In the U.S., mixed non-farm payroll data for November indicates a slowdown in economic recovery, which has somewhat restrained the strength of the dollar [2]. Group 3: Global Risk Sentiment - The Swiss franc, as a traditional safe-haven currency, is sensitive to geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [2]. - Changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the reduction of tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, have positively impacted the Swiss economic outlook [2]. - The SNB reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, adding uncertainty to the franc's trajectory [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term core trading range for USD/CHF is identified as 0.7940-0.7960, with 0.7940 acting as a key support level [3]. - Resistance levels are concentrated in the 0.7960-0.7980 range [3]. - Future movements in the exchange rate will depend on U.S. core economic data, Swiss inflation figures, and statements from the Federal Reserve and SNB officials [3].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by the upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, as well as changes in trade dynamics and global risk sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a significant downward trend over the year, starting at approximately 0.92 and reaching a low of 0.79 in the summer, with a year-to-date increase of 12.75% for the Swiss franc against the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, while there is a divergence in market expectations regarding the Swiss National Bank's policy, with some anticipating a continuation of rate cuts and others expecting rates to remain unchanged [1][2] - The Swiss economy is under pressure, with a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter GDP decline in Q3 and inflation at 0.7% in November, below the 2% target, yet the Swiss National Bank is cautious about negative interest rates due to potential harm to the financial system [1][2] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Economic Adjustments - The recent bilateral trade agreement between the US and Switzerland has reduced tariffs on Swiss imports from 39% to 15%, which may lower economic downside risks for Switzerland and provide support for the Swiss franc [2] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies is contributing to a slowdown in domestic economic growth, affecting corporate investment and consumer confidence, which in turn pressures the USD [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The USD/CHF is currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance around the 0.8085 level and support between 0.8040 and 0.8050; a break below this support could lead to further declines [3] - Long-term trends in monetary policy divergence, global risk sentiment, and the recovery of the Swiss economy are identified as key factors influencing the USD/CHF exchange rate [3] - Future signals to watch include the Swiss National Bank's December rate decision, the Federal Reserve's post-rate cut policy adjustments, and changes in geopolitical risks and economic data from both countries [4]

Group 1 - The recent escalation of trade disputes has heightened market risk aversion, impacting the global foreign exchange market [1] - Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and euro are in demand, while high-risk currencies like the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are being sold off [1] - The U.S. dollar, despite its safe-haven status, faces downward pressure in the event of further escalation, although short-term support may persist due to reassessment of its safe-haven status and expectations of U.S. policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the NFIB small business survey data for signals regarding economic direction, while Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance in his upcoming speech [1] - ING analysts predict that the U.S. dollar index may decline to lower levels by the end of the year as employment data worsens [1] Group 3 - The euro is unlikely to achieve a substantial rebound against the U.S. dollar in the absence of significant positive news, with the political situation in France being a major drag [2] - The upcoming budget proposal by French Prime Minister Lecornu is directly related to a confidence vote, and a potential government collapse could prevent the euro from benefiting from trade tensions, possibly leading it to test the 1.150 level against the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen, once considered a safe-haven currency, is facing increasing skepticism regarding its stability, leading to significant selling pressure and a drop to an eight-month low this week [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The yen has historically served as a safe haven during market turmoil, such as the Asian financial crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to Japan's large current account surplus and consistent foreign exchange income from exports [3]. - Japan's stable political system and deep domestic investor base have reinforced the yen's reliability, allowing it to exhibit strong resilience during downturns in risk assets [3]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The yen's performance as a risk hedging tool has become increasingly unstable, with recent trends showing a negative correlation between the USD/JPY exchange rate and the S&P 500 index, as investors shift towards gold, silver, and the Swiss franc as preferred hedging options [3]. - Following the unexpected victory of conservative figure Sanae Takaichi in the ruling party leadership election, market concerns regarding Japan's policy direction intensified, causing the USD/JPY exchange rate to breach the critical 150 level, further increasing depreciation pressure on the yen [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - As the yen's attractiveness declines, investors are accelerating their shift towards alternative hedging instruments, with strategists from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America suggesting that the Swiss franc is more reliable and cost-effective than the yen [4]. - The Swiss franc has reached historical highs against the yen, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver continue to attract investors [4]. - In the short term, decreased global volatility has reduced the demand for urgent hedging, leading to a resurgence of yen funding arbitrage trades, which allows speculative funds to exert greater influence over the yen [4].

Group 1 - The Thai Baht has appreciated by 4.45% against the US dollar this year, while the Vietnamese Dong has depreciated by 8.47%, giving Vietnam a 12.92% competitive advantage in trade and tourism, putting pressure on Thailand [2] - Vietnam's economy is outperforming Thailand, with a GDP growth of 7.96% and an export growth of 18% in Q2 2025, compared to Thailand's GDP growth of 2.8% and export growth of 12.2% [2] - Despite higher growth and interest rates in Vietnam, the Vietnamese Dong has not strengthened due to the influx of speculative capital into Thailand [2][4] Group 2 - The influx of speculative capital is driven by short-term arbitrage opportunities, with potential annualized returns of up to 260% when leveraging the expected appreciation of the Thai Baht [4] - Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are robust, amounting to 52.4% of GDP, ranking fourth globally, which contributes to the Baht being viewed as a "safe haven currency" [6] - The Thai central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market during periods of US dollar weakness, but the scale of intervention this year is not historically significant [8] Group 3 - Speculative funds have significantly entered the government bond market, reducing the 5-year government bond yield to 1.42%, alleviating financing pressure amid a budget deficit of 865 billion Baht for the fiscal year 2025 [9] - There are differing opinions on how Thailand should respond to the influx of hot money, with some suggesting a fixed exchange rate system while others advocate for allowing market-driven adjustments [8]

Core Insights - The VIX volatility index experienced a daily increase of 20.0%, reaching 19.35 [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by over 1.5%, while the Dow Jones fell by 1.2% and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.8% [1] - Spot gold prices rose by more than 1.3%, hitting a historical high above $3520 [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen by over 0.7% and against the Swiss franc by 0.4% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased by over 4.6 basis points, although it significantly deviated from the daily high of 4.3043% recorded at 20:33 Beijing time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc is experiencing slight appreciation against the US dollar, influenced by recent economic data and trade tariffs imposed by the US on Swiss goods [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a 0.1% increase in June, indicating a slight upward trend but still close to negative territory [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider lowering interest rates below zero later this year due to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.8042 and is currently trading at 0.8055, reflecting a 0.15% increase [1] - The exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 0.7871, currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.7976 [1] - The upper Bollinger Band is at 0.8065, while the lower band is at 0.7887, indicating reduced volatility and a market in a consolidation phase [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariffs - The US has imposed a surprising 39% tariff on most Swiss goods, which is higher than previous signals from the Trump administration, potentially impacting Swiss exports [1] - The appreciation of the Swiss franc is reducing demand for Swiss export products, including pharmaceuticals and luxury watches [1]

Core Insights - The recent SWIFT report indicates that the share of the Renminbi (RMB) in global payment currencies rose to 3.2% in January 2022, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a four-year high, making it the fourth most active currency globally [1] - The increase in the RMB's share since 2021 is attributed to effective pandemic control measures in China and a stable economic recovery, which has supported international payments and trade surpluses [1] - The RMB's internationalization is a natural outcome of market dynamics, with the People's Bank of China reducing intervention in the foreign exchange market and implementing reforms to enhance the RMB's exchange rate formation mechanism [2] Group 1 - The RMB's rising share in global payments reflects its growing internationalization, supported by China's economic stability and strong export performance [1][2] - The RMB has shown characteristics of a safe-haven currency, maintaining stability against the backdrop of tightening U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [2] - The increase in the RMB's global payment share is expected to provide strong support for maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Direct investment in China saw a significant increase, with net inflows reaching $204.8 billion in 2021, doubling from 2020 [1] - The RMB's exchange rate has become more elastic since the "8·11" reform, with a daily average historical volatility of 3.9% from 2018 to 2021, compared to 2.2% from 2014 to 2015 [2] - The RMB's ability to reflect changes in the international environment and domestic supply-demand conditions enhances its resilience as an international currency [2]