周二(2月24日)亚洲时段，美元兑瑞郎维持区间整理，最新美元兑瑞郎报0.7753，涨幅0.12%，瑞郎避险 需求小幅回升，限制汇价上行空间。周一，在美国政策不确定性上升、市场避险情绪回暖背景下，美元 兑瑞郎小幅收涨0.06%，报0.7743。瑞郎作为传统避险货币，在全球混乱阶段获得资金青睐。 市场解读分歧：一方面，美国关税政策混乱提升避险，利好瑞郎；另一方面，美元仍具一定避险属性， 与瑞郎形成争夺，导致汇价窄幅波动。瑞士央行维持宽松倾向，不希望瑞郎过度走强，也限制其升值空 间。 荷兰国际集团(ING)指出，瑞郎避险属性在近期地缘与政策动荡中再度凸显，但瑞士央行口头干预预期 抑制涨幅。报告强调，瑞郎尚未进入趋势性升值，更多为区间避险波动。 机构认为，若全球不确定性持续升温，美元兑瑞郎或下探0.7700；若风险偏好回暖、美元走强，则有望 上探0.7800关口。 美元兑瑞郎技术分析 技术面看，美元兑瑞郎汇率在0.7740—0.7750区间获得支撑，EMA50均线提供短期支撑，MACD多空动 能均衡，相对强弱指标中性，短期呈现区间整理格局。 关键阻力位于0.7780—0.7800关口，突破则重启上行；关键支撑在0.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.23% to 97.08, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against most non-US currencies [1] Currency Movements - The euro declined by 0.15% against the dollar, trading at 1.1851 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.20% against the dollar, with a rate of 1.3628 [1] - The Australian dollar remained stable against the dollar, holding at 0.7072 [1] - The Japanese yen depreciated by 0.54% against the dollar, with a rate of 153.5205 [1] - The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.14% against the dollar, trading at 1.3637 [1] - The Swiss franc decreased by 0.26% against the dollar, with a rate of 0.7697 [1]

Group 1: Government and Monetary Policy - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill to resolve the partial government shutdown that began on January 31 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Fed needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy until inflation returns to target [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike in 2023 and becoming the first major developed economy to raise rates since 2026 [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Economic Measures - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung announced that the government will take all necessary measures to curb real estate speculation, urging multiple property owners to sell before the expiration of a high capital gains tax exemption policy in May [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% at 49,240.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.84% at 6,917.81 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.43% at 23,255.19 points [3] - International precious metal futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures up 6.83% at $4,970.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 10.27% at $84.92 per ounce [3] Group 4: Oil and Bond Market - U.S. oil futures rose by 2.83% to $63.90 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 2.55% to $67.99 per barrel [4] - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield up 0.01 basis points at 3.570% and the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points at 4.266% [4] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22% to 97.39, with most non-U.S. currencies appreciating against the dollar [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has entered a technical partial "shutdown" due to the inability to complete the legislative process before the budget authorization deadline on January 31, despite the Senate passing a $1.2 trillion funding bill [1] - The Indian government plans to borrow a record ₹17.2 trillion for the fiscal year 2026-27, with a projected reduction in the fiscal deficit from 4.4% to 4.3% and a decrease in debt-to-GDP ratio from 56.1% to 55.6% [2] - South Korea's semiconductor exports surged by 102.7% year-on-year in January, reaching $20.5 billion, contributing to an overall export growth of 33.9% to $65.85 billion, setting a record for January [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has initiated an emergency operational plan due to the partial government shutdown, retaining only essential personnel to maintain basic functions until funding is restored [2] - The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee is advancing a cryptocurrency federal regulatory framework bill, highlighting partisan divisions that may hinder its passage in the full Senate [1][2] - Japan's core CPI rose by 2% year-on-year in January, lower than the expected 2.2%, indicating a slowdown in inflation and reducing expectations for recent interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3]

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The U.S. is expected to grow by 2.2%, while the Eurozone and Japan are projected to slow to 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively [1][8] U.S. Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as the economy improves, denying any plans for another government shutdown and indicating upcoming policies aimed at reducing the cost of living [7][8] - Trump has accused Fed Chair Powell of overspending by billions, labeling him as "incompetent or corrupt," and has indicated plans to nominate a new Fed chair soon. This has drawn support for Powell from former Treasury Secretaries and central bank leaders, who criticized political interference in central bank independence [8] U.S. Fiscal Situation - The U.S. Treasury reported a record budget deficit of $145 billion for December 2025, the highest for that month historically. The deficit for the fiscal year 2026 so far stands at $602 billion, down from $711 billion in the same period last year [8] Labor Market and Inflation - The New York Fed President Williams stated that the current U.S. economic conditions are "quite favorable," with no signs of rapid deterioration in the labor market, and expects stabilization and gradual improvement this year. He noted that monetary policy is close to neutral, with no strong pressure for rate cuts or hikes in the short term [2][8] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.6%, both unchanged from previous values. Due to prior government shutdowns, the data's reference value is limited, and the market anticipates a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January [8] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8% to 49,191.99 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.19% to 6,963.74 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.1% to 23,709.87 points [3][9] - COMEX gold futures declined by 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [4][10] - U.S. oil futures increased by 2.69% to $61.1 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 2.43% to $65.42 per barrel [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the USD/CHF exchange rate, influenced by diverging monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve, as well as economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank has maintained a low inflation environment, with a 2025 inflation rate of only 0.2%, the lowest in five years, and a core inflation rate of just 0.5%, significantly below the central bank's implicit target [2]. - The SNB has cut interest rates six times since 2024, bringing the key rate to 0.0% in June 2025, and has kept rates unchanged in September and December [2]. - Market expectations suggest that the SNB may have room for further easing in 2026, with the March meeting potentially being a window for policy adjustment, which could exert downward pressure on the Swiss franc [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The Swiss economy is characterized by low growth and low inflation, with 2025 economic growth expected to remain moderate and no significant recession risks, but insufficient recovery momentum [3]. - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the Swiss franc has been subdued due to stable global risk sentiment, reducing its demand as a safe-haven currency [3]. - The strong Swiss franc has led to a 1.6% decrease in import prices, further suppressing domestic inflation and creating a "low inflation-stable rate" cycle that limits the franc's volatility [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF exchange rate has been oscillating within the 0.87-0.88 range, with balanced bullish and bearish forces [3]. - Some institutions believe that the resilience of Federal Reserve policies will support an upward movement in the exchange rate, targeting 0.8850, while others argue that limited easing space from the SNB and insufficient rebound momentum for the USD may restrict significant upward movement [3]. - Technical indicators show a clear short-term oscillation pattern for USD/CHF, with key support levels at 0.8740 and 0.8700, and resistance levels at 0.8780 and 0.8820 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.06% to 97.95, indicating a slight strengthening of the dollar against a basket of currencies [1] Currency Performance - The Euro depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1778 [1] - The British Pound fell by 0.07% against the US dollar, with a rate of 1.3508 [1] - The Australian Dollar appreciated by 0.05% against the US dollar, reaching 0.6705 [1] - The Japanese Yen declined by 0.21% against the US dollar, trading at 155.94 [1] - The Swiss Franc increased by 0.09% against the US dollar, with a rate of 0.7883 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the Canadian dollar (CAD) due to diverging central bank policies and differing commodity price trends, while the Swiss franc (CHF) continues to face downward pressure against the US dollar (USD) amid a zero interest rate environment and significant changes in market positioning [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Pair Dynamics - The AUD/CAD is currently supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's maintained interest rate of 3.6%, with expectations for a potential rate hike next year, contrasting with the Bank of Canada's lower rate of 2.25% [1]. - The USD/CHF is under pressure from the unwinding of carry trades, as the strategy of borrowing CHF to invest in higher-yielding assets has become unviable due to the CHF's appreciation exceeding borrowing costs [1]. Group 2: Commodity Influence - The AUD has benefited from a structural increase in copper prices, while the CAD is negatively impacted by declining oil prices [1]. - The market structure for the CHF has changed significantly, with speculative short positions decreasing by 60% from their peak earlier in the year, reaching a two-year low [1]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is optimistic about the long-term strength of AUD/CAD but warns of risks from weak iron ore prices [2]. - Standard Chartered Bank anticipates a potential technical rebound for USD/CHF, targeting a level of 0.8060, while UBS warns that continued unwinding of carry trades could push USD/CHF down to 0.77 [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Key technical levels for AUD/CAD include a short-term support at 0.8870 and a strong support at 0.8800, with resistance at 0.8950 [2]. - For USD/CHF, critical support is at 0.7770, with resistance levels at 0.7950 and 0.8060 [2]. - Suggested trading strategies include buying AUD/CAD on dips near the 0.8870 support and shorting USD/CHF near the 0.8060 resistance, while monitoring central bank signals and commodity price trends [2].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - President Trump plans to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January 2026, with current Chair Powell's term ending in May 2026. Trump emphasizes the need for a successor who supports "growth-friendly" monetary policy to promote economic expansion [1] - Treasury Secretary Becerra states that inflation is steadily approaching the Fed's 2% target, predicting that 2026 will see simultaneous improvement in economic growth and price stability. He notes that government efficiency improvements will further optimize the overall economic situation [1] - Fed Governor Milan warns that pausing interest rate cuts in 2026 could increase the risk of recession. He emphasizes that rising unemployment should prompt policymakers to maintain an accommodative stance [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack suggests that after three consecutive rate cuts, interest rate policy should remain stable in the coming months, arguing that the primary risk remains stubborn inflation rather than a weak job market [1] Group 2: EU Sanctions and Currency Intervention - The EU has decided to extend comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia for six months, effective until July 31, 2026, covering key areas such as trade, finance, energy, technology, and transportation. The EU is also implementing special measures to combat sanction evasion [2] - Japan's Finance Minister Katayama asserts that Japan retains the discretion to take decisive action in response to significant currency fluctuations that deviate from economic fundamentals, emphasizing the potential for "bold intervention" if necessary [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 48,362.68 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% to 6,878.49 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.52% to 23,428.83 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.13% to $4,480.60 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main US oil contract rising by 2.53% to $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude rising by 2.45% to $61.52 per barrel [5] - US Treasury yields increased across various maturities, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.96 basis points to 3.507%, and the 10-year yield increasing by 2.74 basis points to 4.165% [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 98.26, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar increased by 0.04%, reaching 1.1757, following a V-shaped movement after the non-farm payroll report, but overall continued the earlier day's upward trend, hitting a high above 1.18 [1] - The British pound against the US dollar rose by 0.37%, reaching 1.3426, while the US dollar against the Swiss franc decreased by 0.19%, settling at 0.7947 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by 0.09%, while the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar increased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar declined by 0.14% [1]