行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 纽约联储主席等官员支持美联储近期降息，而且经济数据显示美国居民消费 和消费者信心均偏弱，美联储降息预期持续上升到 80%上方且美元指数回调至 100 下方，流动性溢价与计价货币因素推动金银价格偏强运行，但俄乌冲突降温前景 与国际贸易形势缓和抑制金价上涨动能。中短期内多空因素交织，我们判断伦敦 黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突破动 能，目前阶段不宜过度追涨杀跌；但在中期维度，环球央行宽松、地缘政治风 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Weak Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [3] - SSE 50: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weak Oscillation [6] - Offset Paper: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Soybean Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean No.2: Weak Oscillation [8] - Soybean No.1: Weak Oscillation [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with a Slight Uptrend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the steel mill profit is squeezed again, but the short - term negative feedback probability is low, with the price oscillating strongly at a high level [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply concerns, and the price is in a weak adjustment state in the short term [2] - The downstream demand for rolled steel and rebar is weak, and the price is in a bottom - oscillating state, depending on production reduction policies and macro policies [2] - The glass demand is weak, and the price is weak, with the need to focus on production line cold repair and policies [2][3] - The stock index futures/options market has short - term adjustments, and the medium - term trend is still optimistic [3] - The gold price is supported in the long term by the Fed's interest - rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, with short - term fluctuations [4] - The log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to supply pressure and weak demand [4][6] - The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost support weakening and poor demand [6] - The oil price is expected to operate in a range, and the meal price is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by supply, demand, and policies [6][8] - The live pig price is expected to oscillate, with short - term downward pressure on the settlement price and upward support for the slaughter rate [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely due to supply and demand factors [10] - The polyester products' prices are affected by supply, demand, and raw material prices, showing different trends such as oscillation and weak adjustment [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 million tons to 2939.5 million tons, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 million tons. The demand core is in the real estate, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by import news and supply concerns, the futures price dropped sharply. The fourth round of price increases by coke enterprises has been implemented, but the profit repair is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth - round increase [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The downstream demand is weak, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The steel price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2] - **Glass**: The spot price is weak, and the demand is dragged down by the real - estate竣工. The inventory is increasing, and the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the surplus problem [2][3] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose 0.95%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.25%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 1.31%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows, and geopolitical news affected the market [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan. The bond market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In a high - interest - rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the gold pricing mechanism is changing. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term factors, and long - term support comes from multiple aspects [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, inflation, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, the inventory increased, and the spot price was weak. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase [4][6] - **Pulp**: The spot price was divided, the cost support weakened, the paper - mill demand was poor, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils**: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, the palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the domestic oil supply was abundant while the demand was weak. The price was expected to operate in a range [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted, the global soybean supply was relatively loose, and the domestic meal supply was abundant. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight fluctuated, the settlement price decreased by 2.58%, the demand recovered slightly, and the slaughter rate increased. The price was expected to oscillate with short - term downward pressure [8] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in different regions changed, the output in some areas was affected by the weather, the demand was supported by the auto industry, and the inventory was accumulating. The price was expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical easing led to oil - price decline, and the supply was strong while the demand was boosted by the polyester load rebound, with wide - range oscillation [10] - **PTA**: The cost was affected by oil prices, the short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was poor, and the price followed the cost [10] - **MEG**: There was long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term price was weak with upward pressure [10] - **PR**: The raw - material support was weak, and the market was expected to adjust weakly [10] - **PF**: The current supply - demand was okay, but the future expectation was negative, and the price was expected to adjust weakly [10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a brief rebound to $4,100 but ultimately settled around $4,050, influenced by a slight strengthening of the dollar and a mild increase in the metals sector [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with a 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut next month indicated by futures markets [2] - Recent comments from New York Fed President Williams suggested signs of cooling in the labor market, which provided a temporary boost to gold prices [2] - Economic data releases, including retail sales, producer price index, and unemployment claims, are anticipated to provide clearer insights into the macroeconomic environment [2] Group 2: Gold Price Trends - Since reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce in late October, gold has entered a consolidation phase, maintaining an overall increase of approximately 55% year-to-date [2] - Ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over fiscal conditions in certain countries continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [2] - In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain range-bound, driven by macroeconomic expectations as investors await new economic data [2]

新华财经纽约11月21日电 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价21日上涨2.8 美元，收于每盎司4062.8美元，涨幅为0.07%。当天2026年3月交割的白银期货价格下跌63.1美分，收于 每盎司50.325美元，跌幅为1.24%。 当日黄金价格上涨，白银价格则大幅下跌。美国股市波动加剧，强劲抛售压力可能推高市场对贵金属的 避险需求。 由于市场对人工智能项目的担忧重燃、美国就业报告强劲，以及比特币下跌释放出避险信号，美国股指 20日经历了自4月以来最剧烈的盘中价格反转，基准指数跌至两个多月以来的最低水平。 欧洲领导人将与乌克兰总统泽连斯基就美俄支持的停火计划进行磋商。当地媒体认为，尽管美国和俄罗 斯在推动结束战争的过程中基本将欧洲国家排除在外，但欧洲对其提议的回应将对乌克兰下一步行动至 关重要。 标普全球21日公布的数据显示，其采购经理人指数（PMI）综合产出指数初值升至54.8，创四个月来新 高。该增长主要得益于服务业的强劲势头。服务业PMI升至55.0，高于10月份的54.8。由于制造业和服 务业经济活动保持强劲，黄金在每盎司4000美元上方有稳固支撑。 技术层面，12月黄金 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - **Glass**: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Edible oils**: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - **Meal**: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - **PX**: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - **PR**: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - **PF**: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].

19日国际金价上涨 贵金属方面，全球风险资产抛售潮推动部分资金流向黄金避险，国际金价周三盘中一度重回每盎司4100 美元关口上方，但受到美元指数显著上涨的打压，金价涨幅有所收窄。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月 黄金期价收于每盎司4082.8美元，涨幅为0.40%。 11月20日，国际金价继续上涨态势，目前报价4103.07美元/盎司。 19日国际油价跌超2% 原油期货方面，美国能源信息局周三公布的数据显示，上周美国汽油库存环比增加232.7万桶，而市场 预期这一库存数据会出现下降。汽油库存增加或暗示美国石油消费端需求疲软，国际油价周三跌超 2%。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶59.44美元，跌幅为2.14%；明 年1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶63.51美元，跌幅为2.13%。 复审：邢 璐 终审：戈驰川 来源:央视财经、江苏新闻 初审：田 芳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, driven by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and a global tech stock sell-off, highlighting the market's sensitivity to monetary policy outlook [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices initially rose to a high of $4,132 before retreating to a low of $4,055, indicating a complete reversal of gains for the day [2] - The surge in gold prices was primarily fueled by a wave of selling in global tech stocks, which increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, emphasizing caution regarding interest rate cuts, dampened bullish sentiment in the gold market [1][2] - The dollar index rebounded, approaching a six-month high, which placed additional pressure on gold prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key price levels for gold were identified: resistance at $4,082, $4,100, and $4,132, with support at $4,055, $4,050, and $4,000 [5] - The market is expected to oscillate within the $4,050 to $4,100 range, with close attention needed on Federal Reserve communications and U.S. economic data [5]

技术层面，12月黄金期货多头的下一个上涨目标是突破每盎司4398美元的历史高位。空头的下一个短期 下跌目标是跌破每盎司4000美元的强劲技术支撑价位。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨54.4美分，收于每盎司51.065美元，涨幅为1.08%。 新华财经纽约11月19日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 19日上涨11.8美元，收于每盎司4078.3美元，涨幅为0.29%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 黄金、白银价格当日走高，但已从日内高点回落。得益于美国股市震荡以及即将公布的重要美国经济数 据，本周中期避险需求温和。美元指数当日上涨也抑制了黄金、白银早盘的强劲涨幅。 美国劳工部20日发布就业报告，将更清晰地展现美国利率前景。美国各机构已开始陆续公布因联邦政府 停摆而延迟的经济数据。市场担心即将公布的经济数据可能会限制美联储进一步放松货币政策的能力， 政策制定者对此也持怀疑态度。对科技股估值过高的担忧也令市场风险情绪承压。 市场分析人士认为，导致降息预期下降的部分原因是长达43天的政府停摆导致数据匮乏，部分原因是市 场对持续贸易紧张局势可能带来的通胀影响仍存担忧。克利夫兰 ...

Macro News - The Shanghai gold futures price is reported at 937.00 CNY per gram, with an increase of 1.09%. The opening price was 922.54 CNY per gram, with a daily high of 938.32 CNY and a low of 922.54 CNY [1] - Liu Jinsong, Director of the Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressed dissatisfaction with the results of consultations with Japan's Foreign Ministry, indicating a serious atmosphere during the meeting [1] - U.S. President Trump stated he has narrowed down candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, including current Fed governors and executives from BlackRock [1] Institutional Insights - Today's gold price closed at 4080.47 USD, with an intraday fluctuation of -105.53 USD. The 10-year TIPS real interest rate rose by 0.02% to 4.14%, which has a weak impact on gold [1] - The nominal interest rate changed by 0.03, and the dollar index changed by 0.1115, indicating a short-term strong pressure on gold prices. Since Q3, there has been a divergence between nominal interest rates and the dollar index, leading to a neutral outlook for gold prices [1] - As of the end of October, global gold ETF holdings stood at 3892.6 tons, which is relatively high for the year, indicating a positive performance in terms of capital [1] - Key macro events to watch include U.S. housing starts and building permits for October. Strong housing starts may suggest a robust economy, leading to upward pressure on nominal interest rates and gold prices. Conversely, weak data could support a decline in real interest rates, benefiting gold [1] - Concerns about data delays following the U.S. government shutdown continue to exist, amplifying demand for gold as a safe haven [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations have led to a significant surge in gold prices, with the spot gold price rising and the Gold Stock ETF (517400) increasing over 2.5%, marking a year-to-date gain of over 75% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) has seen a rise of 2.58% [2]. - Year-to-date, the Gold Stock ETF (517400) has increased by more than 75% [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, with a report from JPMorgan indicating that by Q3 2025, net gold purchases by central banks will reach 220 tons, a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase, equating to an annualized purchase rate of 880 tons [3]. - In September, with an average gold price of $3,668 per ounce, the net purchase volume reported was 39 tons, marking the strongest month of 2025 [3]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, adding approximately 30,000 ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve may dampen interest rate cut expectations, and the end of the U.S. government shutdown could reduce gold's appeal as a safe haven [3]. - However, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions may continue to drive demand for gold as a safe asset, suggesting that gold prices may remain volatile in the short term [3]. - In the long term, the challenges to the U.S. dollar's credit system due to excessive money supply and fiscal deficit monetization, along with increasing global geopolitical instability, are expected to enhance the demand for gold as a secure asset [3]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors optimistic about gold's long-term value may consider the Gold Stock ETF (517400) or the Gold Fund ETF (518800) for investment [4]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index, covering the entire gold industry chain, including mining, processing, and consumption [4]. - The Gold Fund ETF (518800) holds gold spot contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, effectively allowing direct investment in physical gold, with superior liquidity due to T+0 trading [4].