新西兰联储金融稳定报告：地缘政治风险加剧，导致金融市场波动加剧，并对全球经济活动构成重大风 险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical impact of tariff impositions on financial markets, focusing on the immediate effects observed in the first month following the implementation of tariffs on various goods from Canada, Mexico, and China [1][2]. Historical Tariff Impact on Specific Industries and Countries - The tariffs imposed in 2018 on solar panels and washing machines had minimal impact on broad market indices, with fluctuations attributed to other macroeconomic factors [2]. - The solar panel tariff led to a 9% decline in the Chinese semiconductor and electrical equipment stock index within the first month, with a 4% drop occurring in the first week [8]. - The washing machine tariff resulted in a 5%-7% drop in stock prices of leading manufacturers in the first month, with a 2%-5% decline in the first week [9]. - The steel and aluminum tariffs caused a 5% drop in the global industrial index in the first month, with further declines in specific country indices [10]. Currency Exchange Rate Effects - Following the implementation of tariffs, the Canadian dollar and euro depreciated by less than 1% against the US dollar, while the Mexican peso appreciated by approximately 6% [11]. US-China Trade War Analysis - During the heightened tariff threats between the US and China from January to June 2018, the US broad stock index fell by 4%, while the Chinese index dropped by 13% [12]. Hypothetical Analysis of Tariff Effects - Historical observations suggest that tariffs on key goods can lead to a 5% decline in related industry stocks within the first month, with leading companies experiencing a 10%-15% drop [13]. - A hypothetical scenario involving tariffs on Mexican automotive imports could result in a 9% drop in the Mexican automotive parts index and a 4% drop in the US automotive parts index [14]. Long-term Tariff and Retaliation Measures Analysis - A scenario involving mutual tariffs between the US and Canada could lead to a 5% decline in the US stock index and a 10% decline in the Canadian stock index, along with a 3% depreciation of the Canadian dollar [16].

美国总统特朗普已于2月1日签署行政令，宣布自2月4日起，对所有来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品加征 25%的关税，其中对加拿大石油征收10%的关税；同时，对来自中国的商品加征10%的关税。那么从历史 数据来看，加征关税对金融市场的影响究竟有多大呢？ 我们将基于历史关税事件的市场反应，深入分析金融市场及主要可投资指数的潜在波动。我们的分析基于 对以往关税在历史上所引发反应的观察。通过回顾过往关税政策实施首月对相关行业指数、国家可投资指 数及汇率的影响（若适用）。之所以选择分析首月的情况，是因为如果将时间延长到更长的时段，就很难 将当时由于宏观经济和政治决策所产生的其他影响因素单独分离出来。 探索历史关税对特定行业和国家的影响 以下两张历史图表显示，2018年1月美国针对进口太阳能组件和大型家用洗衣机征收的关税，以及2018年 3月对进口铝和钢铁征收的关税，对宽基股票、债券或波动性指数的价值影响微乎其微。任何一个指数的 下降似乎都与当时发生的其他宏观经济新闻或政治决策相关，比如2018年2月因劳动力市场利好和通胀数 据支持加息举措引发的市场波动。 | | 日期 | 中国宽基 股票指数 | 美国宽基 股票指数 | 教 ...