Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast despite the unexpected decision by the Trump administration to exempt refined copper from import tariffs [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - On July 30, the White House announced a 50% universal tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1] - President Trump had previously announced on July 9 that all copper imports to the U.S. would be subject to a 50% tariff starting August 1 [1] - The White House clarified that copper input materials (such as copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes) and copper scrap are not subject to the "Section 232" or reciprocal tariffs [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that LME copper prices will drop to $9,550 per ton in August, followed by a rebound to $9,700 per ton by December [1] - Following the White House announcement, analysts expect that high U.S. cathode copper inventories will lead to an influx of cathode copper into U.S. LME warehouses, but large-scale re-exports of U.S. cathode copper are unlikely [1] Group 3: Government Focus - Analysts noted that despite the unexpected copper tariff policy, it indicates that the Trump administration remains focused on the security of copper supply [1] - The U.S. can now shift its attention to securing mineral deals overseas while gradually implementing tariff measures [1]

Core Points - Chile has announced that its cathode copper products will be exempt from tariffs, emphasizing its role in supporting U.S. industrial development [1][2] - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper products starting August 1, which may significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers [1] - Chile is the largest copper producer globally, exporting over $5.6 billion worth of copper to the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 70% of U.S. copper imports [1] Group 1 - Chile's Finance Minister stated that the exemption from tariffs is beneficial for both Chile and U.S. industries, highlighting the importance of Chilean copper for U.S. industrial growth [1] - The U.S. administration views high copper import levels and global overcapacity as a threat to national security, but Chile argues that it enhances U.S. security as a reliable supplier [2] - Chile's exports primarily consist of cathode and refined copper products, with the remaining 30% of U.S. copper imports sourced from Mexico, Canada, and Peru [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - material - intensive finished products starting from August 1. The tariff excludes upstream copper raw materials. The scope is lower than market expectations, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. The copper market may return to the fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. The short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton. Although the Sino - US tariff talks are optimistic, there are still uncertain expectations restricting the upside space [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The market opened low and moved lower in a volatile manner. The tariff policy on copper products was announced, and the scope was narrower than expected, causing the market to give up previous gains. The domestic TC/RC fees are negative but have stopped falling. Smelters can still maintain production enthusiasm for now, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant reduction in raw material inventory. The tariff on semi - finished copper may affect export demand [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in a volatile manner, closing at 78,040 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 4,229 to 116,273 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,199 to 114,588 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 20 yuan/ton. On July 30, 2025, the LME official price was 9,736 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 36.5 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of July 25, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 42.73 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 19,600 tons, a decrease of 351 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138,200 tons, a slight increase of 1,350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 255,900 short tons, an increase of 2,517 short tons from the previous period [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. government has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while excluding raw copper materials and scrap copper from these tariffs [1][4] - Following the announcement, U.S. copper prices dropped approximately 20%, contrasting with prior expectations of broader tariffs on all copper products [1][4] - The White House justified the tariffs by stating that excessive copper imports threaten U.S. industry and national security, but did not clarify the exclusion of raw copper materials [4] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariff policy specifically targets semi-finished copper products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as copper-intensive derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1] - Raw copper materials, including copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes, are not subject to the tariffs under the Section 232 provisions [1][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. copper futures prices had previously surged about 28% above those on the London Metal Exchange due to anticipatory buying by U.S. buyers expecting high tariffs on all copper products [4] - The immediate aftermath of the tariff announcement saw a significant decline in U.S. copper prices, reflecting market adjustments to the new policy [4] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Industry representatives had lobbied against broad tariffs, arguing that the U.S. lacks sufficient capacity to replace all copper product imports, particularly raw materials [4] - Analysts suggest that the tariff policy may disrupt global copper product trade flows, with previously stockpiled copper products in the U.S. potentially being re-exported [4] Group 4: Future Considerations - The White House has indicated that tariffs on refined copper may be considered in the future, with a proposed phased tariff structure starting at 15% in 2027 and increasing to 30% by 2028 [5] - The U.S. Commerce Department has been tasked with providing an updated assessment of the copper market by mid-2026 to determine the necessity of further tariffs [5]

Core Insights - The LME copper price closed at $9,730.0 per ton, down 0.74%, with significant market reactions following the U.S. government's decision to exclude refined copper from tariffs [1] - The White House announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products starting August 1, but refined copper will not be taxed, surprising traders [1] - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures prices plummeted by 20% within minutes, and the premium of U.S. copper prices over LME benchmark copper futures significantly decreased from 28% [1] Market Reactions - The unexpected exclusion of refined copper from tariffs has led to a bearish sentiment in the market, with potential short-term risks for copper prices in Shanghai [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices are under pressure due to a combination of factors including the U.S. decision not to impose tariffs on copper raw materials and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in copper prices [1] - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives effective from August 1, which is less severe than previously expected, resulting in a significant drop in U.S. copper prices [1] - China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2 - Jinrui Futures notes that the recent tariff implementation may lead to potential logistics recovery, which could result in an oversupply situation, necessitating observation of consumer resilience [2] - If consumption continues to underperform expectations, there is a risk of price declines in the copper market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by the U.S. has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper falling over 20% on July 30, 2023, as market expectations shifted following the tariff implementation [1][2]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has officially imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper derivatives starting August 1, 2023, while excluding copper input materials and scrap from this tariff [2][3]. - The market had previously reacted to the tariff expectations, driving COMEX copper prices to nearly $6 per pound, but the actual announcement led to a substantial price correction [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper experienced a significant price drop, while London copper prices remained relatively stable, indicating a divergence in market reactions [2][4]. - Analysts expect that the copper market will return to a more rational pricing structure, especially if electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, which would eliminate arbitrage opportunities [3][4]. Additional Negative Factors - Rising copper inventories in the U.S. have contributed to the price decline, with COMEX copper inventories reaching their highest level since 2004, having more than doubled this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, driven by better-than-expected economic data, have also negatively impacted copper prices [4]. Future Price Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about copper prices for the remainder of the year, with expectations for LME copper prices to average $9,500 per ton by Q4 2025, reflecting a 2.7% increase from previous forecasts [5][6]. - Concerns over declining copper ore grades and production levels continue to support copper prices, with significant reductions in production forecasts from major companies like Glencore [6].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, excluding refined copper, which led to a significant drop in copper prices in the U.S. market [1][3][5] Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on various imported copper products starting August 1, including semi-finished copper products like pipes, wires, and rods, but refined copper is exempt [5][6] - Following the announcement, New York copper prices fell approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history for Comex copper futures [3][4] - Prior to the announcement, U.S. copper prices were about 28% higher than the benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [3] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. saw its stock price drop by about 10%, while Southern Copper's stock fell over 6%, indicating a negative market reaction to the tariff news [4] - In contrast, Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, views the tariff as a positive development, benefiting from the exclusion of refined copper from the tariff list [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [7][8] - The White House clarified that these copper tariffs will not be combined with additional tariffs on automobile imports, which could further complicate trade dynamics [8] - Analysts suggest that the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs may disrupt global copper trade flows, as the U.S. currently relies heavily on imports for its copper supply [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 4.48%, trading at HKD 21.3 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) decreased by 4.09%, trading at HKD 15.94 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) dropped by 3.48%, trading at HKD 9.15 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at HKD 3.89 [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from the "Section 232" tariffs [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - Earlier this year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs led to a surge in U.S. copper prices relative to the global market, resulting in a rush of copper imports into the U.S. [1] - The recent announcement of a 50% tariff was double the expectations of most market participants, causing U.S. copper prices to reach historical highs [1] - The large quantities of copper recently shipped to the U.S. may be subject to re-export due to the new tariff policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives by U.S. President Trump, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 4.48%, trading at HKD 21.3 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) decreased by 4.09%, trading at HKD 15.94 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) dropped by 3.48%, trading at HKD 9.15 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at HKD 3.89 [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1 [1] - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from the "Section 232" tariffs [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20%, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs led to a surge in U.S. copper prices relative to the global market, resulting in a rush of copper imports into the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, causing U.S. copper prices to reach historical highs [1] - The recent tariff policy may lead to a re-export of the large quantities of copper that have been shipped to the U.S. in recent months [1]