【冠通研究】 铜关税征收范围缩窄 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 31 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走震荡下行，特朗普政府于 7 月 31 日宣布，自 8 月 1 日起全面对进 口的半成品铜产品及铜材料密集型制成品征收 50%的进口关税。该关税政策明确排除了 铜产业链上游的原材料，包括铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜、阳极铜以及铜废料。征收 范围远低于市场预期，纽约铜大幅下挫。国内基本面来看，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值， 但已经止跌回稳，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅检修，目前冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏 损，且冶炼厂大多有原料端储备，故目前生产积极性尚可，集中检修季预计在三季度或 原料库存大幅去化之后。铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影响出口需求。综合来看， 铜关税征收范围超预期，盘面回吐前期的涨幅，后续铜或回归基本面交易逻辑，行情偏 空，短期关注 78000 元/吨附近支撑位置，目前中美关税会谈乐观，但后续依然有不确定 预期，制约上行空间。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 2 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while excluding raw copper materials and scrap copper from these tariffs [1][4] - Following the announcement, U.S. copper prices dropped approximately 20%, contrasting with prior expectations of broader tariffs on all copper products [1][4] - The White House justified the tariffs by stating that excessive copper imports threaten U.S. industry and national security, but did not clarify the exclusion of raw copper materials [4] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariff policy specifically targets semi-finished copper products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as copper-intensive derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1] - Raw copper materials, including copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes, are not subject to the tariffs under the Section 232 provisions [1][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. copper futures prices had previously surged about 28% above those on the London Metal Exchange due to anticipatory buying by U.S. buyers expecting high tariffs on all copper products [4] - The immediate aftermath of the tariff announcement saw a significant decline in U.S. copper prices, reflecting market adjustments to the new policy [4] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Industry representatives had lobbied against broad tariffs, arguing that the U.S. lacks sufficient capacity to replace all copper product imports, particularly raw materials [4] - Analysts suggest that the tariff policy may disrupt global copper product trade flows, with previously stockpiled copper products in the U.S. potentially being re-exported [4] Group 4: Future Considerations - The White House has indicated that tariffs on refined copper may be considered in the future, with a proposed phased tariff structure starting at 15% in 2027 and increasing to 30% by 2028 [5] - The U.S. Commerce Department has been tasked with providing an updated assessment of the copper market by mid-2026 to determine the necessity of further tariffs [5]

再次利空消息下，沪铜价格在短线上或有回落的风险。 白宫周三宣布，自8月1日起对进口铜半成品征收50%关税，但精炼铜不在征税之列。消息公布后，COMEX铜 期货价格数分钟内暴跌20%。截至当地时间周三下午，美国铜价较LME基准铜期货的溢价已从28%大幅回落。 此前交易商普遍预期关税将适用于所有精炼铜进口。 LME铜上一交易日收于9730.0美元/吨，跌0.74%，上海升水165，广东升水0。 市场传来重要消息，特朗普将进口量最大的精炼铜排除在关税清单之外的决定，令交易商大感意外。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices are under pressure due to a combination of factors including the U.S. decision not to impose tariffs on copper raw materials and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in copper prices [1] - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives effective from August 1, which is less severe than previously expected, resulting in a significant drop in U.S. copper prices [1] - China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2 - Jinrui Futures notes that the recent tariff implementation may lead to potential logistics recovery, which could result in an oversupply situation, necessitating observation of consumer resilience [2] - If consumption continues to underperform expectations, there is a risk of price declines in the copper market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by the U.S. has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper falling over 20% on July 30, 2023, as market expectations shifted following the tariff implementation [1][2]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. government, under President Trump, has officially imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper derivatives starting August 1, 2023, while excluding copper input materials and scrap from this tariff [2][3]. - The market had previously reacted to the tariff expectations, driving COMEX copper prices to nearly $6 per pound, but the actual announcement led to a substantial price correction [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper experienced a significant price drop, while London copper prices remained relatively stable, indicating a divergence in market reactions [2][4]. - Analysts expect that the copper market will return to a more rational pricing structure, especially if electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, which would eliminate arbitrage opportunities [3][4]. Additional Negative Factors - Rising copper inventories in the U.S. have contributed to the price decline, with COMEX copper inventories reaching their highest level since 2004, having more than doubled this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, driven by better-than-expected economic data, have also negatively impacted copper prices [4]. Future Price Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about copper prices for the remainder of the year, with expectations for LME copper prices to average $9,500 per ton by Q4 2025, reflecting a 2.7% increase from previous forecasts [5][6]. - Concerns over declining copper ore grades and production levels continue to support copper prices, with significant reductions in production forecasts from major companies like Glencore [6].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, excluding refined copper, which led to a significant drop in copper prices in the U.S. market [1][3][5] Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on various imported copper products starting August 1, including semi-finished copper products like pipes, wires, and rods, but refined copper is exempt [5][6] - Following the announcement, New York copper prices fell approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history for Comex copper futures [3][4] - Prior to the announcement, U.S. copper prices were about 28% higher than the benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [3] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. saw its stock price drop by about 10%, while Southern Copper's stock fell over 6%, indicating a negative market reaction to the tariff news [4] - In contrast, Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, views the tariff as a positive development, benefiting from the exclusion of refined copper from the tariff list [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [7][8] - The White House clarified that these copper tariffs will not be combined with additional tariffs on automobile imports, which could further complicate trade dynamics [8] - Analysts suggest that the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs may disrupt global copper trade flows, as the U.S. currently relies heavily on imports for its copper supply [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 4.48%, trading at HKD 21.3 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) decreased by 4.09%, trading at HKD 15.94 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) dropped by 3.48%, trading at HKD 9.15 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at HKD 3.89 [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from the "Section 232" tariffs [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - Earlier this year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs led to a surge in U.S. copper prices relative to the global market, resulting in a rush of copper imports into the U.S. [1] - The recent announcement of a 50% tariff was double the expectations of most market participants, causing U.S. copper prices to reach historical highs [1] - The large quantities of copper recently shipped to the U.S. may be subject to re-export due to the new tariff policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives by U.S. President Trump, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 4.48%, trading at HKD 21.3 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) decreased by 4.09%, trading at HKD 15.94 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) dropped by 3.48%, trading at HKD 9.15 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at HKD 3.89 [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1 [1] - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from the "Section 232" tariffs [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20%, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs led to a surge in U.S. copper prices relative to the global market, resulting in a rush of copper imports into the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, causing U.S. copper prices to reach historical highs [1] - The recent tariff policy may lead to a re-export of the large quantities of copper that have been shipped to the U.S. in recent months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks have experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products by U.S. President Trump, leading to a historic drop in copper prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zijin Mining (601899) saw a drop of 4.48%, trading at 21.3 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) decreased by 4.09%, with a price of 15.94 HKD [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) fell by 3.48%, priced at 9.15 HKD [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) declined by 2.75%, trading at 3.89 HKD [1] Group 2: Tariff Announcement Impact - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [1] - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper prices plummeted approximately 20% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1] - The tariff is expected to affect the recent influx of copper into the U.S., which may lead to a re-export of large quantities of copper [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump's initial hints at potential copper tariffs caused U.S. copper prices to rise significantly compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper shipments to the U.S. [1] - On July 9, Trump announced the 50% tariff, which was double the expectations of most market participants, leading to a record high in U.S. copper prices [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. copper market experienced its largest single-day drop due to President Trump's unexpected announcement to exempt refined copper imports from the planned tariffs, shocking traders [1] - Starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on semi-finished copper products from China, while refined metal imports will not be subject to such tariffs [1][4] - Following the announcement, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange plummeted by 20%, with U.S. copper prices previously being about 28% higher than the London Metal Exchange benchmark [1] Group 2 - The decision to exclude refined copper from tariffs is likely to disrupt global trade flows of this metal, which is crucial for the global economy due to its extensive use in wire manufacturing [4] - The significant increase in copper prices earlier this month was driven by the announcement of the 50% tariff, which was double what most market participants expected, leading to record-high copper prices [4] - The distinction in tariff policy between refined metals and semi-finished products was influenced by lobbying from the copper industry, as major companies believe the U.S. cannot immediately replace all imported copper [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the imposition of import tariffs on refined metals, with an initial rate of 15% starting in 2027, increasing to 30% by 2028 [5] - President Trump has instructed the Secretary of Commerce to submit a report on the U.S. copper market by June 2026 to determine the necessity of phased-in universal import tariffs on refined copper [5] Group 4 - The announced 50% import tariffs will apply to semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, bars, sheets, and tubes, as well as copper-based goods like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [8] - Unprocessed goods, including copper input materials and scrap copper, will not be subject to these tariffs [8] - The tariffs will not be cumulative with the separate tariffs on automobile imports implemented earlier this year [8] Group 5 - The White House will require that 25% of high-quality copper scrap and various raw copper products produced domestically must be sold within the U.S. [9] - This export requirement is not expected to have a significant short-term impact, as approximately 40% of copper scrap and 75% of copper concentrate is already processed domestically [9] - U.S. copper producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., saw significant stock price declines due to the policy undermining the U.S. copper price advantage, while major suppliers like Chile's state-owned Codelco may benefit from the decision [9]